Author Archive

All-Joy Team: The Thrilling Conclusion

As the reader will undoubtedly imagine, Carson Cistulli receives quite a bit of fan mail here at FanGraphs Headquarters. Some of it (i.e. the fan mail) is just your usual, garden variety-type stuff. “Big up yourself,” people write, or “Sweet jokes”: that sort of thing. Some of it, I’m a little embarrassed to admit, is — how do I say this exactly? — is of an intimate nature. This sort of parcel — because that’s how it arrives — frequently contains some variety of lady’s undergarment accompanied by a note that proposes, in no uncertain terms, how the author and I might pass a weekend, and in what ways, exactly, we might contort our respective bodies. I won’t say I dislike these missives, but they do challenge my modesty.

Regardless of these matters, almost all the correspondence I’ve been receiving lately has led to the same question: “When, oh when, can we expect the thrilling conclusion to the All-Joy Team?”

Right now, is my triumphant response. Just below these words.

A note before we begin: owing to the nature the five sacred criteria, the All-Joy Team is by definition, a work in progress. Just as one can neither take the blue from the sky nor put the wind in one’s own pocket, so, too, is it impossible to truly conclude the formation of the All-Joy Team.

UTIF: Zack MacPhee, Arizona State

On a recent edition of the pod, Messrs Allen, Cameron, and Smith each summarily rejected the notion that scrappy wunderkind Zack MacPhee would make even a single All-Star appearance during what I can only imagine will be a long and important Major League career.

In related news, the triumvirate also confessed to “kinda liking the Redcoats” in the American Revolution and also “not really minding the shadowy spectre of Communism.” Probably vegetarian, all of them.

Anyway, through 23 games so far this college season, the sophomore MacPhee is slashing .459/.564/.865 to go along with 9 triples, 4 homers, a BB:K of 18:8, and a stolen base record of 10/10. I believe the word you’re looking for is “Booyakasha!”

UTOF: Peter Bourrrrrrjos, Los Angeles (AL)

On account of my status around here as Semi-Reliable Copyeditor*, I have access to most of the writing you see on the site before it goes live. So one thing I know that most everyone else in the world does not is that, in an early version of Erik Manning’s celebration of Angel farmhand Bourjos, the former appended to the body of that post, “Peter! I heart you real bad! Call me: 555-1234!”

*Which reminds me: in the event that the reader happens upon any usage errors in these electronic pages, he should feel free to — instead of harrassing the author — just email me at ccistulli@yahoo.com.

A couple notes on that. First, having had to call him for pod-related reasons, I can verify that Mr. Manning’s phone number does, indeed, include a 555 exchange. This is mostly to do with the fact that Erik Manning is an imaginary person, merely one of the seven or eight pseudonyms under which Dark Overlord David Appelman conducts his business*. Second, and more relevant to this discussion, is the fact that Bourjos really is a fascinating player. Not only did he improve his plate discipline dramatically from 2008 to 2009, but — more interestingly — he appears to be one of the better glove men in all the minors.

*Nor should you discount the fact that David Appelman is, indeed, the man writing these very words.

According to his Minor League Splits page, Bourjos has been good for somewhere around 20-30 runs per 150 games each of these past three years. This year, CHONE has him projected for 11.1 runs above average in center despite only 421 plate appearances. He appears headed to Triple-A Salt Lake to begin the season.

C: Brayan Pena, Kansas City

If you’re the sort of person who both (a) ponied up $7.95 for the Second Opinion and (b) made it to the piece entitled Fringe Benefits, then you’ll know that there’s some overlap between the All-Joy Team and the players listed in that article. The reason for this is clear: the criteria for that fake team are not so different than the ones for this other, equally fake team.

As for Pena, specifically, there’s reason to believe — given both scouting reports and Matt Klaassen’s heroic efforts — that his defense is suspect, which is why I’d feel uncomfortable making him the starter for the present Team. That said, his plate discipline, rate of contact, and power would likely place him among the league’s better offensive backstops were he given a starting position. On account of he’s playing for the Royals, and on account of how that team has decided to give Jason Kendall the majority of PAs at catcher, this will very likely not be Pena’s year.

SP: Colby Lewis, Texas

It’s a truth universally acknowledged that, in certain extreme cases, the only honorable way for two virile men to resolve their differences is by means of a dance battle. That being the case, the reader might very well be seeing Marc “Prospect Maven” Hulet and Carson “America’s Sweetheart” Cistulli involved in an elaborate brand of fisticuffs before too long.

The reason for our dispute? Colby “Big in Japan” Lewis. Hulet contends that Lewis is merely a Quad-A sort whose silly K:BB numbers in the NPB (369:46 in 354.1 IP) is merely the product of inferior competition. I contend that Hulet is full of it. What “it” is, I can’t say for sure, but I wouldn’t sprinkle it on my morning cereal.

In any case, CHONE calls for Lewis to post a 3.99 ERA across 167 IP this season.

SP: Gio Gonzalez, Oakland
SP: Felipe Paulino, Houston
SP: Freddy Garcia, Chicago (AL)

In case you missed it the first time, I sent a whole bunch of nerdy love letters to both of these guys’ peripheral numbers back in December. Furthermore, I intimated to every liberal American (via their online meeting den) that, were Brian Moehler to win a starting role over Felipe Paulino, I’d commit a very public suicide in protest.

Before you have time even to ask the question, “That thing about suicide he just wrote, is that decidedly sans taste?” allow me to answer immediately: yes and no. Yes, because people have actually committed very public suicides in support of actually meaningful causes. But also, no, because for Houston — a club with little hope for playoff baseball this season — for a club like that not to give a young player an extended look.

Of course, it will give us more reason to make fun of the Houston Astros. But I’m quoting myself when I say that snark isn’t an end in itself; it’s just the mode to which we resort when we are powerless to protest in any other way.

As for Garcia, he generated the highest percentage of whiffs on balls offered at outside the zone. It’d be nice to see him put a season together.

RP: R.J. Swindle, Tampa Bay

Swindle pitched at the Triple-A All-Star game last year, and struck out Colorado farmhand Jorge Padilla on a 55-mph curvepiece. That’s enough for me to hire him for LOOGY work.

Nor am I the only one who thinks so. Steve Slowinsk of D-Rays Bay is on this particular boat, as well:

At the end of the “Cult Classics” piece, I decided that Kelly Shoppach would most likely become my cult hero this season since we’ve been missing a larger-than-life swing ever since Jonny Gomes left. Somehow, though, I had completely forgotten about another player that easily climbs to the top of my “Cult Hero” meter: R.J. Swindle. We’ve discussed Swindle here on DRB before but for those unfamiliar with him, Swindle is a side-armed lefty reliever that hits 84 MPH with his fastball and 55 MPH with his curveball. While the obvious comparison to Casey Fossum (!!) can be made, Swindle is actually good.

Yeah, so it turns out that, anytime he’s pitched at least 17 innings at a particular level, Swindle has posted a FIP below 3.00. All that’s earned him is 11.1 Major League innings. Come on, people! Give both peace and R.J. Swindle a chance.

RP: Mark Lowe, Seattle
RP: Lance Cormier, Tampa Bay
RP: Burke Badenhop, Florida

Just as in real baseball, relievers are a fungible group for All-Joy consideration, too. Translation: these picks could change at the drop of a 59/50-brand baseball cap. So, instead of getting super-attached to my last two relievers, I’m just using these picks as an excuse to celebrate some sweet Pitch f/x work that Jeremy Greenhouse has been doing lately over at Baseball Analysts.

In the event that you haven’t spied with your little eye Greenhouse stuff, you should abso-frigging-lutely get yourself over there, stat. In the meantime, here’s what you need to know about it: Greenhouse, piggy-backing on some cool work by Chris Moore at the selfsame site, has been looking recently at the best pitches in baseball per Pitch f/x data. If you’re suspicious, that’s fine. I maybe was, too. But on account of the numbers confirm that All-Joyer Kevin Jepsen is awesome, I became a convert pretty quickly.

The guys I have listed — Lowe, Cormier, and Badenhop — have the most improved pitch, best cutter, and best changepiece, respectively. I’m not sure I’m burning on fire to see them this year, but this definitely raises my curiosity level.

All this brings us to a complete 25-man roster. Behold the joy:

C	Kurt Suzuki
1B	Brian Myrow
2B	Kelly Johnson
3B      Alex Gordon
SS	Ben Zobrist
LF	Chris Heisey
CF	Ryan Sweeney
RF	Daniel Nava
DH      Juan Francisco
B	Adam Rosales
B	Zack MacPhee
B	Peter Bourjjjjjjos	
B	Brayan Pena

SP	Colby Lewis
SP	Gio Gonzalez
SP	Felipe Paulino
SP	Freddy Garcia
SP	Billy Buckner 
Swing	Jason Godin
RP	Brandon League
RP	Kevin Jepsen
RP	R.J. Swindle
RP	Mark Lowe
RP	Lance Cormier
RP	Burke Badenhop

FanGraphs Audio: RotoGraphs Meets America!

Episode Fourteen
In which all of your fantasies become realities.

Headlines
Budreika and Blahblahski: Duquesne Represent!
Sanders and Sarris: East Meets West.
Hulet and Joura: Hating on Colby Lewis.
… and other cracker jacks!

Featuring
Every Frigging RotoGraphs Contributor!

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop.

Read the rest of this entry »


Organizational Rankings: Current Talent – Arizona

The Arizona Diamondbacks seem to have quite a few players who have either under- or outperformed the baseballing community’s initial assessments of them. Of course, this isn’t true of all the D-Backs — I mean, Augie Ojeda is probably right about where you’d expect him to be — but still, to this author’s mind, it does appear as though the team possesses quite a few players who were misread initially.

Which is why, for this edition of Current Talent — and to appease that part of the brain that looks for patterns in everything — we’ll look at three categories of D-Back: the Outperformers, the Underperformers, and then the Other Guys.

Outperformers

There were big concerns about Mark Reynolds‘ contact rates and major league position. A 2007 injury to Chad Tracy solved the latter; as for the former, well, it turns out that if you hit 44 homers and take some walks, you’re okay. How could wunderkind Justin Upton outperform his pedigree? Pretty easy, actually; by being better than these guys: Bryan Bullington, Delmon Young, and Matt Bush. Those are the three Number One Picks before Upton.

Dan Haren was, at one point, traded for Mark Mulder. Now he’s basically a lock for about 200 innings of low-3s FIP. Back in the day, Brandon Webb was an eighth round pick out of Kentucky. Before last year’s injury, he was a constant threat for the Cy Young. That’s what a sinkpiece and an outpitch will do for you. (Although, it needs to be said, the injury is of great concern right now.) Chad Qualls received the Heath Bell treatment for some years. Now he’s en route to becoming a Proven Closer. Like Bell, he’s got sweet groundball numbers.

Underperformers

It’s almost definitely unfair to deem an underachiever somone who’s projected by CHONE to post a 2.8 WAR, but shortstop Stephen Drew hasn’t yet become the player that the prospect maven community expected. Slightly above average isn’t bad, mind you, but that wasn’t the original assessment. “Left fielder” Conor Jackson was hailed for his excellent plate discipline — and it’s true, he’s has always had pretty excellent numbers as far as that goes (10.2% BB rate versus 13.0% K rate). Thing is, if you play corner outfield — and your name’s not Ichiro — you should probably jack a donger every once in a while. “Power-speed combo” must’ve been thrown around like a million times about center fielder Chris Young before he made his debut. Unfortunately, people said the same thing about Corey Patterson, too. Like Patterson, Young hasn’t really figured out how to get on base, and his career 91 wRC+ shows it.

Starter Edwin Jackson appears poised for a career as a league-average innings-thrower. That’s worth something, for sure — just not what we expected. Ian Kennedy will get an chance immediate chance to prove himself in the D-Backs’ rotation this spring. His 43/37 K/BB ratio in 59.2 major league innings bears little resemblance to the 273/77 K/BB in 248.2 minor league ones.

Other Guys

Miguel Montero seems to have successfully banished fellow catcher Chris Snyder to the role of back-up. Both are offensive pluses. Adam LaRoche will play an average-ish first base and hit like Albert Pujols — starting in mid-July. Second baseman Kelly Johnson got taught a lesson in random variation last season as his BABIP plummted to .247. That’s unlikely to happen again.

On the bench you got Ryan Roberts, who’s not bad at all, backing up non-shortstop infield positions; the lovable Augie Ojeda ready to fill in for Stephen Drew; and 23-year-old Gerardo Parra, The giant and powerful Brandon Allen might make an appearance at some point.

Billy Buckner posted a 3.95 xFIP last season, largely on the strength of a groundball rate (48.8%) that far surpassed his previous major league numbers. He’s poised to pick up many of Webb’s lost innings. Rodrigo Lopez and Kevin Mulvey represent a name you thought you’d never hear again and a name you may never hear again.

Finally, like many teams, the D-Backs have a bullpen. In this case it’s not the beacon of excitement. Juan Gutierrez has some of the proverbial giddy-up on his fastball (94.8 mph last year) and his slider came out to 3.00 runs per 100 pitched. Aaron Heilman is meh-worthy and Bob Howry throws a straightball. Clay Zavada and Zachary Kroenke are LOOGY-types, but only one has the facial hair of a medieval knight. Bobby Cox attempted to detach Blaine Boyer’s arm in Atlanta. Let’s hope it still works.


Organizational Rankings: Current Talent – Baltimore

The Baltimore Orioles are one of those teams for which the line between Current and Future Talent is a little blurry. Though the club has as yet to solidify its 25-man roster, whichever group they send northward, it will consist of at least five — and, very possibly, seven or eight — players who made their major league debuts last season. Nor does that tally include players like Adam Jones or Felix Pie who, despite their relative experience, won’t even turn 26 before the end of 2010.

Well-known superhero (and sometime catcher) Matt Wieters did not, in fact, save the planet last season. Still, he actually hit pretty well down the stretch (.354/.420/.525 over his last 112 PA, with improved BB/K ratio). CHONE rates the second-year player at 4.0 WAR. Center fielder Adam Jones won a Gold Glove in center last season. That probably shouldn’t have happened, but it’s not Jones’ fault. He should play a league-average-y center while hitting above league average.

Left fielder Nolan Reimold didn’t make his major league debut till the middle of May, but when injuries befell teammates Luke Scott and the aforementioned Jones, it was difficult for Baltimore not to give a chance to Reimold and the .394/.485/.743 line he put up in Norfolk.

If you want the brass tacks on right fielder Nick Markakis’s down 2009, Jack Moore’s article on the same is the place to go. Here’s the most interesting thing you’ll probably learn from it, though: last season, Markakis saw a drop in Z-Swing and an increase in O-Swing. The Orioles hope that sitch straightens itself out before he gets too far along in the six-year, $66.1 deal to which they signed him prior to least season.

Luke Scott isn’t a bad hitter at all, but gets hit hard by the DH positional adjustment. It’s not clear that he’s actually a worse fielder than Nolan Reimold, but Baltimore appears committed to giving the latter all the time he needs in left.

Likely first baseman Garrett Atkins and fellow corner infielder Miguel Tejada are not — nor are they intended to be — long-term solutions at their repsective positions. Suitably, they’re each signed to one-year deals.

Shortstop Cesar Izturis is a liability with the bat, with CHONE and ZiPS calling for 69 and 68 wRC+s, respectively. If it were possible to bat him 10th in the lineup, Manager Dave Trembley might consider it. Still, he’s been worth two full wins afield the last two years while netting fewer than 900 PA. Oh, and while we’re at it, we might as well consider the guy who’s been the team’s best player for awhile: second baser Brian Roberts signed a four-year, $40M extension before last season that begins this year. Reports out of spring training that Roberts’ back is a problem are not particularly encouraging, but CHONE projects a 3.2 WAR and, as we all know, projections are designed to be completely accurate exactly 100% of the time.

Sitting on the bench you’ll almost definitely see Felix Pie and Ty Wigginton. The former can play any outfield position well and is interesting because of his youth and pedigree; the latter can play any infield position below average-ly and is interesting because, despite a body type that belongs in the Before column, is still a major league baseball player. (And, fine, he can hit, too. Usually, at least.) A fierce battle is raging at back-up catcher between Chad Moeller and Craig Tatum. I can barely contain my excitement.

As Marc Hulet will almost definitely shout to the heavens in the Future Talent version of this report, the Orioles have a cadre of young, high ceiling starters. Of that group, lefty Brian Matusz and righty Chris Tillman combine potential with ability to contribute immediately. It’s probably not best to expect the biggest of things from either this year, but something in the vicinity of league average may not be crazy talk.

Also in the discussion is Brad Bergesen, who will probably enter the season as the third starter despite the fact that he very likely is what he is. One thing “he is” is the guy who led all Baltimore pitchers in WAR in 2009 (2.3). According to our own Bryan Smith, he has the sort of sinker that could go unrecognized at lower levels but still make him a useful major leaguer.

Rumor has it that Jeremy Guthrie was once a highly touted prospect. Now he’s a 31-year-old coming off 200 innings of 5.22 xFIP pitching. If he can hit the 200 IP mark again while FIP-ing under five, that makes him something, at least — and probably worth the $3M he’s being paid. Old Man Kevin Millwood will spend the last year of his five-year, $60M contract — originally signed with Texas — as the “ace” in Baltimore.

Right handers David Hernandez and Jason Berken made their respective debuts last season. Despite his giant minor league strikeout totals, Hernandez might not have the overall repertoire to gets outs as a major league starter. Look for him in the bullpen at some point. Koji Uehara actually didn’t pitch poorly at all last year in his Stateside debut, posting a 1.6 WAR in just 12 starts. The problem was that kept straining his thigh and elbow. A move to the bullpen is one possible remedy for that, although, as we speak, the 35-year-old is dealing with — what? — a strained hamstring.

Though it’s not Brandon Lyon-bad, the O’s signing of Mike Gonzalez to a two-year, $12M deal is a head-scratcher for a team that will almost assuredly not be contending this season. What’s more, Baltimore has young-ish Jim Johnson, who became the team’s closer after the departure of George Sherrill to the Dodgers. Also of note here are Cla Meredith — he of the immense ground-ball rate — and Kam Mickolio — he of the immense Man Body. Matt Albers, Mark Hendrickson, and Will Ohman all own Baltimore Orioles jerseys, and will — for better or worse — probably wear them at some point this season.


FanGraphs Audio: Org Reports, Elijah, Larry Jones

Episode Thirteen
In which the panel survives off deception.

Headlines
Organizational Reports: Whys and Wherefores
Elijah Dukes: Released
Chipper Jones and Evaluating Situational Play
… and other cracker jacks!

Featuring
Dave Allen, Heat Mapper
Dave Cameron, Sworn Enemy
Bryan Smith, Prospect Maven

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop.

Read the rest of this entry »


Cactus League Coverage: Five Games, Five Names

While the very reasonable Matthew Carruth announced two days ago that he would no longer breach the subject of Team FanGraphs’ spring training trip in these electronic pages*, I, having never really been all that fond of “restraint,” intend to go back to that well until it’s as dry and dusty as the Greater Phoenix Area.

*It’s like they say: “What happens at the Crowne Plaza Hotel Phoenix-Airpot, stays at the Crowne Plaza Hotel Phoenix-Airport.”

What follows is the sort of white-hot baseballing analysis you can only get from FanGraphs. For each of the five games I attended (in just four days!), I provide one player of note. If nothing else, consider it an opportunity to write “small sample size” in all caps in the the comment section. You’re welcome, in advance.

Date: Friday, March 12
Game: Kansas City at Seattle
Name: Matt Tuiasosopo
Comments: The Peoria Sports Complex, where the Seattle Mariners play, has a giant blue batting eye in center field that’s probably about, I don’t know, 40 feet tall and 90 or so feet wide (and which you can see with your own two right here). Here’s the weird thing about that batting eye: it’s in play. Of course, that’s not something I’d’ve thought about for more than, like, three seconds had Tuiasosopo not slamicated a John Parrish offering half way up said batting eye for what turned about to be a 435-foot double. Oh, and Tui hit a home run to left off Juan Cruz in his next PA.

Date: Saturday, March 13
Game: Texas at Cleveland
Name: Lonnie Chisenbutt
Comments: The lay baseball fan may know him as Lonnie Chisenhall, but it was universally acknowledged by those of us in attendance (okay, maybe just Jack Moore and I) that saying something to the effect of “Guess what? Chisenbutt” is pretty hilarious. In case you’re not acquainted, Chisenbutt is — according to our own Marc Hulet — is Cleveland’s number two prospect and number 55 overall in Hulet’s totally uncontroversial Top 100 Prospect list. In this game, Chisenhall played a pretty legit-looking third base while doubling to the right field gap and drawing two walks. Justin Masterson struck out six in 3.2 innings, and would’ve totally been my Player of the Game if his name could be made into a sophomoric joke.

Date: Saturday, March 13
Game: Auburn at Arizona State
Name: Zack MacPhee
Comments: Through the ten (albeit, non conference) games entering this one, MacPhee had compiled 7 triples and a 7-for-7 record on stolen bases while managing to post an OPS of, like, one million. I was already totally on the bandwagon when, after doubling from the right side earlier in the game, MacPhee jacked a donger from the left side. Worried that the subsequent joy coma might be unwarranted, I asked someone whose actual job it is to know these things, Baseball America’s Aaron Fitt. Mr. Fitt responded kindly, promptly with the following:

I don’t think your liking of MacPhee is irrational at all — he’s an exciting player. He’s undersized, sure, but I actually think he has some projection because he’s a real quick-twitch athlete. I remember when Arizona State brought him in, their recruiting coordinator at the time, Josh Holiday, called him “a little ball of fire” and said “this guy is a stronger, faster, quicker athlete than Pedroia.” Like Pedroia, he really drives the baseball — he’s not just a contact-oriented slap hitter. Holiday really knows his stuff, and he told me quite clearly that MacPhee “will do big things.” And since he arrived in Tempe, he has learned how to switch-hit, and apparently he’s really taken to it. That just gives him more value. Obviously he’s unorthodox, but I think he’s got a real chance to move up draft boards and be a good pro.

Date: Sunday, March 14
Game: Kansas City at Oakland
Name: Catcher Jake Fox
Comments: This was actually supposed to be a Chicago Cubs versus Some Other Team game, but turns out a lot of people really want to see the Cubs. Anyway, the Athletics’ spring training complex wasn’t so far away, so we decided to head thataways. Really, it was just an opportunity for Matt Klaassen to find new and interesting ways to be disappointed by his hometown team. Anyway, the surprising thing was when the PA guy referred to Fox as a “catcher” during the latter’s first plate appearance. I thought maybe I was suffering from too much sun, but, no, in Fox’s second plate appearance, the PA guys once again called him “Catcher Jake Fox.” Later on, in the eighth, Fox jacked a pretty serious donger to left off Matt Herges.

Date: Monday, March 15
Game: Cleveland at Milwaukee
Name: Michael Fiers
Comments: Who the frig is Michael Fiers? He’s a guy who struck out 63 batters across 42.2 IP in the Brewers system last year. Of course, he was a college guy pitching in the low minors, so that’s not saying much. But he’s also a guy who struck out the only three batters he faced in today’s game and looked nasty while doing it. I’d’ve asked around about Fiers, except I was so eager to learn more about MacPhee that I totally forgot. [End white-hot analysis.]


Scouting Team FanGraphs

As a couple guys here have noted already, a significant portion of Team FanGraphs descended (literally, via iron bird) this past weekend upon the waterless dreamland that is Phoenix, Arizona.

The result was a super-good time, as we got to watch a whole bunch of baseball (including the Royals, twice!) and make a bunch of incredibly nerdy jokes that made on-lookers very jealous. If I have one complaint, it’s that my deluxe hotel room looked absolutely nothing like my mother’s basement, a fact I found incredibly disconcerting.

One thing that this past weekend allowed me to do is to get a better sense of the writers here — what greases their respective wheels, what gets their respective goats. It occurs to me that this sort of information might be of interest to our Wide Readership. Thus, I present here the scouting report for Team FanGraphs (or, for that portion of Team FanGraphs that made the trip).

How to evaluate a sabermetric blogger, though? That’s the question I asked myself — and which I think I’ve answered adequately, if not excellently. With deference to our scouting friends, I’ve decided to embrace the Five Tools framework. Here are the tools I believe are essential to the sabermetric blogger:

Number Stuff (NS) – Encompasses a few skills, including: database skills, math skills, player valuation skills, and (duh) nunchuck skills. I call it “stuff,” on account of my own rating in this tool is pretty bad — about a 30 or 35, probably.

Nerd Cred (NC) – Pale skin and glasses are important factors here, as is the possession of an advanced degree or some other nerdy non-baseball specialization.

Baseballing Cred (BC) – A measure of actual baseballing knowledge. A high-ish rating requires not only an encyclopedic knowledge of major leaguers, but also actual knowledge from the various horses’ mouths. For example, if you think Eric Byrnes will get starts against lefties, that’ll net you a 50 rating. If Tony Frigging Blengino tells you that Eric Byrnes will get starts against lefties, that’s closer to a 70 or 75.

Range (RA) – Maybe or maybe not overlapping with Nerd Cred, this measures the blogicator’s comfort in dealing with topics non-baseball. In particular, pop culture references are important here.

Want To (WT) – An assessment of the writer’s industry. Making multiple daily posts — that, or contributing to multiple sources — will help the blogicator’s rating in this category. The WT rating are generally high around here.

For each tool, I use the standard 20-80 scouting scale, a brief explanation of which you can read here via Erik Manning’s Prosect Primer at Future Redbirds:

The 20-80 Scale is a tool that is used to measure various aspects of a given player’s tools. The tools they measure would obviously vary by group. 50 would be considered to be MLB average, while a “plus” tool would be any tool that is graded at 60, and “plus-plus” would be rated 70 or higher.

It’s important to remember that (a) 50 is a good score, as it suggests that the writer in question has league-average skills for the tool in question and that (b) many FG-ers score in the above-average range because, well, they write for FanGraphs.

And with that, I present the much-ballyhooed Team FanGraphs Scouting Report. Mind you, these numbers aren’t set in stone (and Moore’s especially could take a dip if he keeps belittling my math skills), but intended more as a first pass.

Dave Allen, Heat Mapper

NS	NC	BC	RA	WT
75	70	55	70	70

Comments: Allen scores well across the board. His knowledge of film and music (he understood offhand references to both Paul Thomas Anderson and Pavement) gets him good Range numbers, and his frigging PhD in Ecology (with a mathematics focus) helps his Nerd Cred, too.
_____

David Appelman, Dark Overlord

NS	NC	BC	RA	WT
80	80	80	80	80

Comments: Appelman looks more like a Dark Overlord in person than he does on the internet. Also, he paid for a whole bunch of crap. He can have whatever scores he wants.
_____

Dave Cameron, Sworn Enemy

NS	NC	BC	RA	WT
70	65	75	40	80

Comments: Cameron has some pretty lofty numbers — as befits one of the giants of the sabermetric blogosphere — but gets killed in Range for admitting publicly that he doesn’t think Will Ferrell is funny. I mean, what the what is that about? His Nerd Cred is tough to figure. Yeah, he’s got that voice and that face, but the presence of the lovely and talented Mrs. Cameron problematizes things a bunch.
_____

Matthew Carruth, Ace of Database

NS	NC	BC	RA	WT
80	65	55	60	70

Comments: Doesn’t wear his glasses all the time, which really hurts his Nerd Cred. Literally eats SQL for breakfast, though, which drives his Number Stuff rating up. Also, I don’t know how to mark him down for it, but deserves some sort of penalty for making derisive comments about East Coast. I’ll get you, Carruth!
_____

Matt Klaassen, Philosophizer

NS	NC	BC	RA	WT
65	70	55	70	70

Comments: Joins Allen in the PhD crowd, with an even bigger RA factor, owing to the fact that said PhD involves a discipline in the humanities. Numbers Stuff rating is an already strong 65, with the likelihood of improving. Is kinda like the Brian Giles of sabermetric blogging, I’m thinking: got a late start, but has a high ceiling despite that fact.
_____

Brian Joura, Strong and Silent Type

NS	NC	BC	RA	WT
NA	NA	NA	NA	80

Comments: Joura had the huge task of representing for FanGraphs’ Polish triumvirate, as Joe Pawl and David Goleblahblah were unable to make the trip. That’s a big responsibility. Overall, Joura is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside a fantasy writer, which makes me reluctant to offer ratings on most of his tools. The one thing I was able to assess is his Want To: Joura led Team FanGraphs in spring training posts with three.
_____

Jack Moore, Math Snob

NS	NC	BC	RA	WT
75	60	55	65	70

Comments: I actually don’t know what Moore’s databasing skills are, but, apparently, he got a 5 on the AP Calc exam in his age-15 season. Also, while discussing optimal batted ball trajectory, he actually said, “It’s just trig, Carson.” Made a number of other math-related and smack-worthy comments, but made up for it by quoting Louis CK at random. Finally, Nerd Cred is hurt by fact that he plays actual baseball (even if he can’t handle my wiffle slider).
_____

Patrick Newman, NPB Expert

NS	NC	BC	RA	WT
55	60	70	70	70

Comments: Newman is encyclopedic about anything even remotely concerning Japanese baseball (including my dogg, Colby Lewis), which gets him a high BC rating. Plus, his ability to speak Japanese helps the RA rating However, like Cameron, the presence of the Mrs. really hurt his NC.
_____

Bryan Smith, Prospect Maven

NS	NC	BC	RA	WT
50	40	70	NA	70

Comments: Smith’s Nerd Cred is hard to figure. He has so much knowledge in his brain, but doesn’t wear glasses, has something like a tan, and wears his ballcap at an angle far too jaunty for the average nerd. Despite a dearth of math or database skills, gets an average Number Stuff rating for his recent prospect valuation posts.


FanGraphs Audio: Rob Neyer Status Update

Episode Twelve
In which the guest is a frigging legend.

Headlines
The Rise and Further Rise of Daryl Morey
Fouled by Mark Cuban (and Other Notes from MIT-Sloan)
Moneyball and Breaking News
The Art of Sportswriting
… and other flights of whimsy!

Featuring
Rob Neyer

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop.

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FanGraphs Audio: The Search for Luck-Neutral Offense

Episode Eleven
In which the panel tries its luck.

Headlines
FIP for Hitters?: A Summary
The Problem with PrOPS
A New Metric: Regressed wOBA
… and other hits of tomorrow!

Featuring
Matthew Carruth
Matt Klaassen

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop.

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FanGraphs Audio: Roundtable with Cameron and Joe Pawl

Episode Ten
In which the panel tries not to over-extend itself.

Headlines
Justin Upton’s Contract in Context
Thither Adrian Gonzalez?
Travis Hafner’s Herniated Everything
… and other moving speeches!

Featuring
Dave Cameron
Joe Pawlikowski

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop.

Read the rest of this entry »