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All-Joy Team: Debaucherous Hitter

It’s neither heaven, nor Iowa: it’s the All-Joy Team!

On today’s episode: Debaucherous Hitter.

Sensical? Not entirely. Intriguing? Duh!

DH: Juan Francisco, Cincinnati

I neither subscribe to, nor am I able to advocate, that ethic described most commonly as the Work Hard, Play Hard lifestyle. Ideally, one needn’t distinguish between his work and play. Ideally, one enjoys his work to such a degree that he needn’t “play hard” so’s to — as famous Belgian detective Hercule Poirot would say — “blow off ze steams.” Obviously, this is a rare feat. To pay da billz, we’re often required to perform the tedious*. But even in such cases where one must toil grievously to bring home the bacon — or some other, similarly delicious pork product — there still oughtn’t be a need to send oneself into oblivion.

*Like wash David Appelman’s car, for example. Sheesh, that guy.

That said, there are times when unbridled hedonism is called for. There are times when it feels good to find oneself awake at 5:30 a.m., having imbibed all manner of adult sodas, musing recklessly on life, the universe, and everything. Not every weekend, obviously. (That would be trouble both for one’s liver and career prospects.) But once or twice a year, maybe, it feels good to loosen one’s collar and behave irresponsibly. There’s something cathartic about it that allows the reveler in question to return to bidness as usual after the episode (and subsequent hangover) have passed.

Juan Francisco, I will argue, is the baseballing equivalent of such a catharsis.

For the sabermetrically oriented, Juan Francisco represents basically the antithesis of an ideal batter. His approach at the plate is precisely the opposite of that one employed by most successful major league batters. Over 1982 minor league PAs, Francisco has struck out 442 times (22.3%) while walking only 72 (3.8%)*. He did sport a career-high 0.22 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 464 Double-A PAs last year, but to call that improvement is damning with the faintest of praises. In short, Francisco possesses almost nothing in the way of plate discipline, and even though he’s young, he’s got more than a couple miles to go before his hacking ways sleep.

*Let CHONE do the talking: Francisco’s projected to bat .262/.290/.467 this year.

Yet, one thing he does have is power*. And that power, combined with his recklessness, is, in some way, the reason to watch him. Is Francisco likely to be a great help to Cincinnati this season? No. Nor, were I a Reds fans, would I care to see him anywhere near the big league roster. As a neutral supporter and card-carrying member of the Fidrych Institute, though, the Reds’ win-loss record is of little concern to me. (And, seriously, Francisco poses much less a threat to the Reds’ prospects than Dusty Baker.) Really, all I care to see is Francisco. He won’t walk softly (or at all, really), but he certainly carries the big stick.

*Watch from about second 21 of this video. More than how far he hits the ball, it’s his crazy follow-through that gets me.

With Francisco, the All-Joy Team now looks as follows:

C	Kurt Suzuki
1B	Brian Myrow
2B	Kelly Johnson
3B      Alex Gordon
SS	Ben Zobrist
LF	Chris Heisey
CF	Ryan Sweeney
RF	Daniel Nava
DH      Juan Francisco
UTIF	Adam Rosales

SP	Billy Buckner
SP	Jason Godin
RP	Brandon League
RP	Kevin Jepsen

FanGraphs Audio: Prospect Mavens on The Next Step

Episode Nine
In which the panel considers what WAR is good for — and how it relates to minor leaguers.

Headlines
On Bryan Smith’s The Next Step
Jesus Montero and the Value of a Catcher
Fan Projections for Minor Leaguers?
Carson Cistulli’s Long Levers
Strasburg, Heyward, and This Guy
… and other candid opinions!

Featuring
Marc Hulet
Erik Manning
Bryan Smith

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop.


All-Joy Team: Third Base

Much like Shaquille O’Neal in his prime and/or the libidos of our nation’s politicians, one can’t stop the All-Joy Team, but only hope to contain it.

Yes, we here at the Fidrych Institute (the country’s pre-eminent joy-related think tank) have had our fingers in all manner of multimedia pies recently (comme ci, commme ca), but the luminous mystery of the All-Joy Team has never been far from our minds.

To recap, in our latest episode, we’d just elected Kelly Johnson and Adam Rosales to All-Joy status, bringing the current pre-season roster to its current state:

C	Kurt Suzuki
1B	Brian Myrow
2B	Kelly Johnson
SS	Ben Zobrist
LF	Chris Heisey
CF	Ryan Sweeney
RF	Daniel Nava
UTIF	Adam Rosales

SP	Billy Buckner
SP	Jason Godin
RP	Brandon League
RP	Kevin Jepsen

The reader will notice that, with the exception of a few positional omissions, the above bears a shocking resemblance to a field-able baseball team. Exciting, is the only word for that. Now, let’s see if we can’t clean this up.

Today, you get a third baseman; tomorrow, a designated hitter.

3B: Alex Gordon, Kansas City

Basketball analyst John Hollinger has coined the term “second draft” to describe the acquisition of players who (a) have, at one point, been considered prospects, (b) have fallen from prospect status, (c) have played out the duration of their rookie contracts, but (d) are still young enough so’s to make good on their early promise. Because of the extent of control that MLB organizations exert over their players, this entire cycle can actually occur before the young player escapes his arbitration years.

The Rise and Fall and Other Rise of Alex Gordon is a bad name for a book. But I think, before his tenure in Kansas City is through, it’ll be an accurate one. Even just three years ago, Gordon was receiving Wieters-esque attention from people who know what’s what. It was in that year, 2007, that Gordon was number one overall on Kevin Goldstein’s Top 100 Prospects list, number one on John Sickels’ Top 50 Hitting Prospects list, and the second overall prospect on Baseball America’s list — behind Daisuke Matsuzaka, which is kinda cheating, seeing as the latter had already been a star for a while in Japan and was 26 years old.

In light of the hype, Gordon’s freshman campaign was a relative disappointment, although still good enough for a 2.1 WAR. In his second season, he improved his batting mark to a 109 wRC+ from the 89 wRC+ he posted in his rookie season. Even with a drop in UZR and 30 fewer PAs, he still improved his WAR to 2.4. Last year he hurt his hip early in the season, and his end-of-year numbers suffered predictably. But look here: you still have a guy with at least a league-average bat, most likely an average glove at third, and a great pedigree. He’s turning 26, which means he’s got some projection left, and CHONE likes him to post a 114 wRC+ this season with exactly league-average third-basing — good for a 2.6 WAR in only 479 PAs. Not earth-shattering, sure, but good.

Gordon does have one proverbial strike against him, in that he’s a Royal. Though I don’t know of any hard evidence to support this, there’s something to be said for organizational culture, and my sense is that — and again, I’m speculating wildly — but my sense is that some players will underperform their talent level in certain situations. Obviously, Gordon’s teammate Zack Greinke is a glaring example of the exact opposite phenomenon. But I also think of a player like Felipe Lopez, who did some interesting things in Cincinnati before moving to the uber-woeful Nationals, where he proceeded to play like Willie Bloomquist*. Then, as you probably know, Lopez was sent to St. Louis, where he once again began hitting and playing like a legitimately talented player. Ditto last year, during which he posted a career-high 4.6 WAR in stints with Arizona and Milwaukee. I’m curious as to whether the baleful effects of Kansas City’s mediocrity could affect Gordon’s ability to realize his potential so long as he’s there.

*No exaggeration here. From 2006 to 2008, Lopez had a -0.1 WAR in 1354 PAs with Washington. Over the same stretch, Bloomquist registered a 0.8 WAR in 663 Mariner PAs. You could make the argument that he was protected from certain, tougher pitchers or whatever, but still.


FanGraphs Audio: Roundtable with Cameron and Keri

Episode Eight
In which the panel considers everything and its mother.

Headlines
The Next Questions in Baseballing Analysis
Theo Epstein and UZR: Frenemies?
Twitter and/as Sports Reporting
Over/Unders of Note
Jonah Keri Doesn’t Mention Bloomberg Sports
… and other wild speculations!

Featuring
Dave Cameron
Jonah Keri

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop.

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FanGraphs Audio: Charlie Wilmoth of Bucs Dugout

FanGraphs Audio writes the songs that like three people sing.

Episode Seven
In which the guest is about to be a doctor.

Headlines
The Sorrow and the Pity
The Garrett Jones Sitch
Flawless Radio Transition
On Composition
… and other timeless classics!

Featuring
Charlie Wilmoth of Bucs Dugout

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop.

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FanGraphs Audio: Three Aces (and Edwin Jackson)

FanGraphs Audio surprises even itself sometimes.

Episode Six
In which the panel considers pitchers young and old-ish.

Headlines
Second Half Jackson
Scherzer to the Max
The First Word in Johan is Yo (Almost)
Roy Halladay Is an Asian Freak
… and other hilarious misunderstandings!

Featuring
Matt Klaassen
Jack Moore

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jumpity-jump.

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In Defense of Fantasy Baseball

This Lenten Season, I — like many Catholics — have given up a vice. But it’s neither chocolate nor beer from which I’ll be abstaining for these forty or so days. I don’t particularly care for the former and view the latter less as a vice and more as a type of awesome medicine.

Here’s what I’ve given instead: apologizing for my interest in fantasy baseball.

Of course, given the amount of time I spend thinking about it, “interest” might be a bit of an understatement — but let’s leave that consideration for another day. There are real benefits provided by fantasy baseball that no other pastime, so far as I can see, is capable of providing.

Having meditated real hard all up on this line of thought, I could discuss said benefits at some length. For the sake of brevity (relatively speaking, of course), here are three actual reasons why fantasy baseball is of legitimate benefit to your life. Keep them at the ready in the event that your wife/parents/boss confronts you with what they’ll inevitably call your “problem.”

1. It’s Good for the Mind Grapes

Yes, while rotisserie almost exclusively concerns baseball — in terms of content, that is — it’s clear to anyone who’s ever played that other skills are necessary to fantasy domination than a simple knowledge of players and their stats.

In fact, fantasy baseball offers a number of the same benefits that Steven Johnson (in Everything Bad Is Good for You) attributes to video games like Sim City or Grand Theft Auto — that is, games which feature open-ended narrative structures and, therefore, require a greater deal of player interaction.

Because he’s smart, Johnson hands the mic over to John Dewey for the theoretical underpinnings. It’s in Experience and Education that Dewey writes:

Perhaps the greatest of all pedagogical fallacies is the notion that a person learns only the particular thing he is studying at the time. Collateral learning in the way of formation of enduring attitudes, of likes and dislikes, may be and often is much more important than the spelling lesson or lesson in geography or history that is learned. For these attitudes are fundamentally what count in the future. The most important attitude that can be formed is that of desire to go on learning.

By way of commenting on the collateral benefits of video games, Johnson himself goes on to say that, “far more than books or movies, games force you to make decisions.”

He continues:

All the intellectual benefits of gaming derive from this fundamental virtue, because learning how to think is ultimately about learning to make the right decisions: weighing evidence, analyzing situations, consulting your long-term goals, and then deciding.

I’m probably preaching to the biggest ever choir when I say that, n’doy, fantasy baseball requires decision-making skills. The fantasy owner must understand the scoring mechanisms of his league, must weigh that information against the players available, must understand what skills those players have, must understand those skills separate from context (team, ballpark), must understand those skills separate from luck, must assimilate news reports about a player’s projected playing time or injury status, blah to the blah to the blah. And that’s even before the draft/auction begins.

2. It’s Good for Male Friendships

As a rule, I’m averse to hugging. Oh sure, there are some exceptions. Like, I’ll hug either of my parents. I’ll hug someone who’s just gotten married (more for consolation than congratulation). Sometimes, if she makes me, I’ll even hug my wife. But generally speaking, I’m not what you’d call a casual hugger.

And yet, especially as I get older and see my friends getting older, see some of them, in fact, getting sick in ways that can be a little frightening, I’ve begun to realize that it’s sometimes advisable — indeed, necessary — to tell these same friends that I care about them. Having had little experience with this sort of venture, however, my attempts are a little clumsy.

Luckily, fantasy baseball allows people like me — that is, with little in the way of emotional intelligence — to display affection in a highly ritualized, but still very real, way.

For example, I’ve been in this one keeper league going on about five years now. In said keeper league, I own Jeff Clement, who still qualifies at catcher even though he’ll almost definitely begin the season as the starting first baseman for the Bucs. This, as you might know, is a boon to Clement’s value, as he won’t be subject to the physical demands of the catcher position.

I’ve recently utilized the the league’s message board to inform the rest of the owners in the league about how Clement qualifies at catcher and about how he’ll be starting at first base and about how awesome that’s gonna make my team compared to their dumb teams.

To this, another owner has replied that Clement is a piece of junk. A third owner has suggested I have a fun time finishing in fourth place. I, in turn, have invited both of these guys to “cram it.” While, to the outsider, this might seem like open hostility, any sociologist worth his salt will see all the goodwill spilling out of us. Basically, what we’re really saying to each other is stuff like: “You’re a good guy” and “I’m happy you’re my friend.” It’s like Love Fest 2010 over here.

3. It’s Unimportant in the Good Way

Very often we’re asked — and by “we,” I mean middle-to-upper-middle class, college-educated men* — we’re asked to care deeply about things over which we have very little control. This is, to some degree, the entire modus operandi of media: to draw our attention outward.

*According to Sociologist Donald Levy of the University of Connecticut, overwhelmingly the demographic that plays fantasy baseball.

To illustrate, consider three headlines from this past Sunday’s edition of the New York Times:

– Burmese Refugees Persecuted in Bangladesh
– Portugal Landslides’ Toll Rises to 42
– Pakistan Kills 30 in Airstrike on Militants

Suffice it to say, these are legitimately terrible things happening to very real people. The thing is, my ability to do anything about their respective predicaments is minimal. Still, there’s an ethic that is popular among the class to which I belong, an ethic which holds that it’s one’s duty to “stay informed.” In lieu of affecting change in far-off places (largely impossible), we make offerings of our own well-being as penance. We say, in effect, “Though I’m unable to help, I’ll set aside a part of my day to consider you and your problems.” I’ll argue that, while the intentions of such an act are good, the practice itself is not.

Fantasy baseball provides almost the exact opposite experience. With the exception of my opposing managers, there are exactly zero people who care about my fantasy team. Yet, for every problem that arises — an injury to a starting pitcher, a second baseman traded to another team — I’m fully equipped to deal with it. I go to the waiver wire, I propose a trade: whatever the solution, it’s fully within my capacity to affect change.

Some might suggest that I’m burying my head in the sand. I think that’s untrue. I contend that it makes me a healthier citizen. I spend a great deal of time dealing with situations that are wholly within my control. I find that I’m able to take problems in stride, with the idea that, through some combination of patience and ingenuity, I’ll be able to solve them. In turn, the world does not appear to be such a dark, forbidding place.


FanGraphs Audio: Jonah Keri Status Update

FanGraphs Audio is the gift that keeps on giving — giving ear aches!

Episode Five
In which the guest is a real-live author.

Headlines
Bloomberg Fantasy Nerd Thing
Do You Know Who Vince Naimoli Is?
Homage to Moneyballs
Dog Show! (Or: Maybe I am, and Maybe I Am.)
… and other dramatic gestures!

Featuring
The Incomparable Jonah Keri

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes.

Audio past the read more link:

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FanGraphs Audio: High Leverage Podcast

FanGraphs Audio is like a bald eagle: less endangered now than it had been till recently.

Episode Four
In which the panel considers the nature of stress… in every way imaginable.

Headlines
Stressed Out Pitchers
FanGraphs Does the (BABIP) Splits
Saying Hello to the Missus
… and other incomparable feats!

Featuring
Dave Allen
Dave Cameron

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes.

Audio after the jump.

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FanGraphs Audio: Prospect Mavens in the House

FanGraphs Audio is shooting to the top of the charts. (And, yes, we’re just as surprised as you.) Audio after the jump.

Episode Three
In which the panel considers rookies in line for significant playing time.

Headlines
Tommy Manz-What-the-H-ella?
Drew Stubbs Is Awesome at the Baseballs
Marc Hulet’s Riposte in re Chris Withrow
… and other new discoveries!

Featuring
Marc Hulet
Bryan Smith

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes.

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