Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York NL at Colorado | 20:10 ET
Verrett (21.1 IP, 100 xFIP-) vs. Butler (14.0 IP, 86 xFIP-)
Each of Logan Verrett’s two starts this season have been impressive — both in terms of run prevention and fielding-indepedent indicators. Over two starts and 12.0 innings, Verrett has conceded zero runs while also producing an 87 xFIP- (better than his numbers in relief). This is promising. And unlikely to continue. The probability of Verrett becoming even an average major-league starter would appear low. Neither his statistical track record nor his stuff suggest its likelihood. But here’s something else that’s unlikely: any one person existing in the first place. And yet here we all are, making bad decisions amongst each other.

In conclusion, here’s footage of Verrett’s most effective out-pitch, his slider:

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The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) received a future value grade of 45 or less from lead prospect analyst Dan Farnsworth during the course of his organizational lists and who (b) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and John Sickels, and also who (c) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on an updated prospect list or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Houston at Boston | 19:10 ET
McCullers (Season Debut) vs. Wright (41.1 IP, 101 xFIP-)
It was either American rock band 38 Special or ancient and dead Chinese philosopher Laozi who advised the world to “Hold on loosely, but don’t let go. If you cling too tightly, you’re gonna lose it — you’re gonna lose control.” Whatever the precise identity of the author, his/their spiritual wisdom has exerted no little influence over the the Houston Astros, which baseball club has handled Lance McCullers with great care this spring after the right-hander experienced shoulder inflammation in March. He returns to the majors tonight, however, on the strength of a 2015 campaign during which he produced the best adjusted ERA and best adjusted FIP and second-best adjusted xFIP among all rookies who recorded 100 or more innings as a starter. He faces knuckleballer Steven Wright, who has prevented runs with vigor over his first six starts.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York NL at Los Angeles NL | 22:10 ET
Colon (38.1 IP, 81 xFIP-) vs. Kershaw (53.0 IP, 51 xFIP-)
“To hope,” writes Emil Cioran in his pleasantly titled collection Syllogisms of Bitterness, “is to contradict the future.” A compelling sentiment, that — one which, even after a period of reflection, is difficult to discredit. Due to a number of factors — but mostly the all-consuming darkness that lurks just beyond the horizon — life and the living of it lends itself to a native pessimism. This isn’t to suggest, however, that there aren’t brief moments when some manner of hope or anticipation isn’t called for. Consider the case of this particular game, for example. In this corner, one finds Bartolo Colon, a rotund geriatric who radiates cheer. In this other corner, something not unlike The Best There Ever Was, Is, or Will Be. “What will happen?” one asks. “I don’t know,” everyone else answers. “Let’s find out.”

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Tampa Bay at Seattle | 15:40 ET
Archer (38.1 IP, 76 xFIP-) vs. Walker (32.0 IP, 74 xFIP-)
During 2014, the season in which debuted, Seattle right-hander Taijuan Walker walked more than 11% of the batters he faced over 38.0 innings. Had he recorded the requisite number of innings that year, Walker would have produced the second-highest walk rate among the league’s roughly 90 qualifiers. This season, over six starts and 32.0 innings, Walker has recorded a walk rate lower than every qualifier’s walk rate except for Clayton Kershaw’s walk rate. Is it evidence that people really can change? Or perhaps merely the product of variance, and the world remains cold and indifferent. This game will provide a single data point in support of one argument or the other.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Tampa Bay at Seattle | 22:10 ET
Smyly (39.2 IP, 81 xFIP-) vs. Miley (38.0 IP, 98 xFIP-)
Here one finds the Ben Zobrist of baseball games — which is to say, one distinguished not by the promise of dizzying heights, but by its thoroughgoing competence. Drew Smyly and Wade Miley both offer some aesthetic value, the former for his capacity to induce swings and misses (1.7 standard deviations more frequently than other starters), the latter for the multitude of strikes he throws (67.3% of pitches, 1.5 standard deviations better than average) and the pace at which he works (two standard deviations faster than average starter). Tampa Bay and Seattle’s hitters, meanwhile, also possess their merits. The Rays, a team composed merely of Tampa-area orphan children, have nevertheless produced the second-best park-adjusted home-run rate among all major-league clubs. The Mariners, meanwhile, are well-acquitted by that same measure.

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Episode 651
Dave Cameron is the managing editor of FanGraphs. During this edition of FanGraphs Audio he examines the Chicago Cubs in no little depth — how, for example, they’ve produced one of the great run-differentials of all time and how, strangely, they might have benefited from Kyle Schwarber‘s early-season injury. Also discussed: Bryce Harper’s lengthy swing-less streak. And also: what makes a knuckleballer like Steven Wright effective when he’s being effective.

This episode of the program is sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 47 min play time.)

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York NL at Los Angeles NL | 22:10 ET
Matz (28.2 IP, 70 xFIP-) vs. Kazmir (31.2 IP, 103 xFIP-)
If the season ended right now, that’d be unusual. Because the 2016 schedule clearly dictates that games ought to be played through September, is why. And because literally millions of consumers have purchased tickets to contests scheduled for May 10th and beyond, is also why. If the season ended right now, it’d probably be the result either of some emergent issue within baseball itself — along the lines of a strike — or, alternatively, the product of a national crisis that would render the country’s taste for diversion either impractical or vulgar or both. If the season ended right now, it would likely mean that a lot of people’s lives had changed for the worse. In any case, if the season really did end right now, Mets left-hander Steven Matz would possess the second-best WAR mark among all rookie pitchers — behind only the Dodgers’ Kenta Maeda, who’s a rookie in one sense but less of a rookie in another sense.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Boston at New York AL | 20:05 ET
Wright (32.1 IP, 105 xFIP-) vs. Severino (25.2 IP, 91 xFIP-)
Given both the width and also the breadth of the world — and all the possibilities contained within it — there’s a non-zero chance that someone on this earth has declared that “The only thing less appealing than watching one Red Sox-Yankees game is watching two Red Sox-Yankees games in a row.” Of course, such a statment is necessarily false. Because, regard: if one were to compose a list of unappealing things and yet omit a number of the more serious dermatological conditions — many of which Job himself would regard as a bit far-fetched — then one would have composed a flawed list. Moreover, one is forced to concede that a contest featuring by Steven Wright (a knuckleballer who’s experienced success this year so far) and Luis Severino (who’s produced one of the highest average fastball velocities) — that such a contest possesses some merit.

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