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Welcome to the Majors: 4/4 – 4/5

Hiroki Kuroda had a winning debut as the Dodgers starting pitcher last Friday where he struck out 4 and allowed just a single run in 7 innings of work. Kuroda who is now 33 years old, pitched 1700 innings in Japan over his 11 year career. He signed a 35.3 million dollar contract with the Dodgers this past off-season.

Stephen Holm got his first at-bat in the top of the 8th inning with his team, the Giants, down 13-4. He flied out to left and then continued on as the catcher for the final inning. Though Holm had never played above AA before, he earned the backup catcher job by beating out Eliezer Alfonzo and Guillermo Rodriguez as a nonroster invitee.

Elliot Johnson got the start as the DH for the Rays and went 1-4 in his debut. He was also caught stealing on his first major league stolen base attempt. Johnson taught a class on how to play baseball the right way for $50 dollars an hour while playing for the Rays AAA Affiliate, the Durham Bulls.

Randy Wells pitched 9th inning mop-up duty for the Blue Jays in his debut. He faced four batters and walked one. Last season in AAA for the Cubs he struck out 101 batters in 95 innings of work. He was initially drafted as a catcher but was converted to a pitcher due to his strong arm and poor hitting skills.

Yasuhiko Yabuta pitched one inning for the Royals and allowed just one hit in his debut. Yabuta pitched 12 years for the Chiba Lotte Marines and signed a 2 year, 6 million dollar contract with the Royals this off-season. He struck out Alex Rodriguez, Derrek Lee and Johnny Damon in the 2006 World Baseball Classic.


Minor League Data

2008 minor league data has started rolling in and will of course be updated daily. The minor league stats are available in both the leaderboards and the stats pages.

We’ve also reluctantly updated the Devil Rays name to the Rays.

And spring training stats are now hidden by default, but if you still want to see those oh-so-meaningful stats, you can always click on the “Show Spring Training” button.


Welcome to the Majors: 4/3/08

There was one player other than Johnny Cueto to make his big league debut yesterday and it was none other than Callix Crabbe.

Crabbe pinch hit for the Padres to start of the bottom of the 7th. He got to see two major league pitches and then flied out to left field. Crabbe, who plays second base, showed adequate power (9 home runs) and a decent ability to get on base with a 12.8% walk rate in AAA. He was also the 2007 “Applebee’s Home Team Hero” for the Brewers’ AAA affiliate, the Nashville Sounds.

Cueto struck out 10 while walking none in 7 innings of work and I already wrote about him here. He looked very good and I suggest you see him for yourself next time he’s on the mound.


Phillies Win on a Walk

The Nationals ended their bid at a 4-0 start to the season when Jesus Colome walked in the winning run after intentionally loading the bases. This is not the first time Manny Acta has walked the bases loaded.

On April 20st in the bottom of the 13th inning, Hanley Ramirez was walked with a runner on 1st and 2nd to load the bases for Matt Treanor in a move that eventually worked out to the Nationals advantage.

There was a very informative post by MGL and discussion following those events on The Book Blog.

However, this situation was considerably different in that there was already a runner on third with one out and Chase Utley was intentionally walked leaving a runner at 1st and 3rd. Walking that batter actually increased the win probability of the Nationals and was unquestionably the correct move. Then Ryan Howard was intentionally walked to load the bases to bring up Jayson Werth.

To me this seems like you’re pitting Ryan Howard’s batting average and sac fly potential against Jayson Werth’s OBP and sac fly potential. A ground ball or an error could score the run too, but I think that’d be just as likely to happen with Werth at the plate as with Howard, so lets run some quick back of the envelope calculations.

Let’s say any outfield fly will score the runner and Howard hits outfield fly balls in about 22% of his plate appearances. That’s a 22% chance he’ll score the run right there. Then there’s the chance that he gets a hit on a non-fly ball, which is about 12.3% of his plate appearances. Now we’re up to a 34.3% chance that Howard will win the game in this at-bat. There’s also a 16% chance he’ll walk anyway, making the Nationals chance at a “favorable outcome” in this at-bat about 50-50.

Then there’s Jayson Werth, who if we run the same exercise for, hits outfield fly balls about 28% of the time, non-fly ball hits about 19% of the time, and walks 15% of the time, giving him about a 62% chance to win the game.

Maybe we add +10% to Howard and -10% to Werth because of righty/lefty splits, making the game winning percentage for Howard 44% and the game winning percentage for Werth 52%.

I guess the question is, how much more likely is a double play going to be made with the bases loaded than with a man on 1st and 3rd? I’d think the chance would have to be considerably higher in order to justify walking the batter unless the batter is much much worse.


Cueto Mania!

Almost exactly a year ago, Daisuke Matsuzaka made his big league debut, striking out 10 batters in 7 innings of work. Today, Johnny Cueto made his debut for the Reds and threw 7 innings of one hit ball and also struck out 10 batters in what was the first double digit strikeout performance this season by any pitcher.

During the game they flashed a graphic of pitchers who had struck out 10 in their major league debuts since 1980. Only Steve Woodard and Tim Hudson had struck out more in their debuts with 12 and 11 strikeouts respectively.

Cueto has dominated all levels of competition he’s played in the past two years with his high strikeout rate and minuscule walk rate. He’s made numerous 2008 top prospect lists including Baseball America (#34), Baseball Prospectus (#41), John Sickels (#21), and MiLB.com (#48).

Dusty Baker (destroyer of arms) let him throw just 92 pitches and hopefully they’ll continue to keep his pitch counts reasonable.

Tomorrow we’ll get to see the other Reds spring training standout, Edinson Volquez make his season debut. It’s been two big days for the Reds, maybe they can make it three.


Welcome to the Majors: 4/2/08

Masa Kobayashi was one of four players to make their big league debut yesterday. He struck out 1 and allowed 2 hits before getting yanked for Rafael Perez. After playing in Japan for 10 years and saving over 200 games, he signed a 6.25 million dollar, 2 year contract with the Indians. He had a decent, yet unspectacular spring and it will be interesting to see how he fares as the year goes on.

Evan Meek pitched less than an inning of relief for the Pirates and allowed a two run homer to Yunel Escobar. Meek needs to pitch the entire season for the Pirates or else he’ll be offered back to the Devil Rays. His 69 strikeouts in 67 innings in AA are a good sign, but he still needs to cut down on his walks quite a bit. I guess he’ll be learning on the job if the Pirates want to keep him.

Randor Bierd who pitched himself into the bullpen with a strong spring training, threw 2 innings and allowed only a single hit in his debut for the Orioles. Like Meek, his strikeout ability is enticing, but unlike Meek, he already has his walk rate under control. Last year in AA he walked a mere 24 batters in 53 innings and struck out 40.

Alex Romero was the sole batter to make his debut. He had a successful sacrifice bunt for the Diamondbacks in his only plate appearance and then headed back to the bench. Romero hit .339 this spring which enabled him to beat out Trot Nixon for a roster spot.


Clutch Project: Ballot Results & Scoreboard

The results are in for Tangotiger’s clutch project and you can read all about them over at The Hardball Times. Over here, we have the clutch scoreboard up and running where you can already track how well your selections are doing.


Encarnacion’s Big Hit

With the Reds down by 2 runs in the bottom of the 9th, Edwin Encarnacion hit a walk-off, three-run home run. It was not only the most important hit so far this year according to WPA, but also the biggest hit of Encarnacion’s career by a long shot. His previous single most important hit was a bases clearing double all the way back in September of 2005 worth .45 wins. Tonight’s home run was worth .62 wins.

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Found the video: Hat tip to Brock For Broglio


Welcome to the Majors: 4/1/08

A whopping seven players made their major league debut yesterday. During the 2007 season, 211 players made their major league debut and this season we’ve already seen 16 new additions to the major leagues.

Christopher Tolbert got his first at-bat in the bottom of the 8th inning in a game that was already considerably out of hand. He grounded out and called it a day. Tolbert just made Aaron Gleeman’s list of top 40 Twins prospects and Gleeman believes he’s best suited as a utility man.

Brian Bass also made his debut with the Twins and struggled in the process allowing 3 hits and 2 runs including a home run in just 1.1 innings. He had some success in AAA last year as a starter and exhibited good control with 2.1 BB/9. He also appears to induce groundballs at a fairly high rate, which certainly doesn’t hurt.

Brian Barton pinch hit in the bottom of the 7th and singled in his only at-bat of the game. Barton was excellent this spring batting .351 with 2 home runs and 5 extra base hits. Future Redbirds did an excellent piece on him recently which has everything you would ever want to know about him, including his aerospace engineering degree.

Kyle McClellan pitched his first inning for the Cardinals in the top of the 6th and it was a perfect inning to boot. McClellan had an admirable spring striking out 12 in 13 innings of work while walking just 2. He was dominant in AA last year, so it will be interesting to see how he does in the majors. He’s someone to keep an eye on.

Rico Washington also made his debut with the Cardinals where he pinch hit in the bottom of the 5th. He performed quite will in AAA last year with an OPS of .914 and batting .333 this spring earned him his roster spot.

Jayson Nix got the start at second base for the Rockies and went hitless with two walks. Nix spent the past two seasons in AAA and showed decent power for a second-baseman with a .159 ISO. He won the starting job over Jeff Baker, Clint Barmes, Marcus Giles, and Ian Stewart with his solid defense and adequate plate skills.

Last but not least, Ramon Troncoso pitched two-thirds innings for the Dodgers last night in his first major league appearance. He only faced one batter and got him to ground into a double play. Troncoso displayed excellent strikeout abilities in high-A where he struck out 30 batters in 26 innings while only issuing 3 walks. His AA numbers were a bit more sobering, but he still performed pretty well.


Welcome to the Majors: 3/31/08

This year opening day had 8 major league debuts, which is down from 11 debuts in 2007.

Kosuke Fukudome entered the league with a bang by going 3-3 with 1 walk and just a triple shy of hitting for the cycle. The former Central League MVP is projected to bat about .290 with around 15 home runs. He currently leads all major league players with a 3.333 OPS. You couldn’t ask for a better start.

Kazuo Fukumori didn’t get off to quite the same start as his fellow countryman, as he gave up 3 runs in one-thirds inning of work with 2 wild pitches. Fukumori did have an excellent spring allowing no runs in 9 innings while striking out 8 batters so it will be interesting to see what happens next time he takes the mound. Word is, he’s a bit inconsistent.

Darren O’Day got into action in the bottom of the 8th inning with his team, the Angels, trailing 3-2 to the Twins. He proceeded to load the bases, but worked out the jam to keep the game close. O’Day earned a roster spot with his strong play in spring training and is currently replacing the injured Chris Bootcheck.

Clete Thomas got his first shot as the leadoff batter in the bottom of the 11th with his team down 4-5. He did his part by doubling to center, but no one was able to drive him home. Then he retired.

Brian Bocock, a defensive whiz with questionable batting skills, got the start at shortstop for the Giants while filling in for the injured Omar Vizquel. He walked twice and was caught stealing once. He bat an abysmal .183 this spring with his strikeout rate last year in high-A eclipsing the 30% mark. He’ll likely be sent back down to the minors when Vizquel returns.

After playing seven years in Cuba, Alexei Ramirez got his first start Major League start in center field. He struck out 3 times and walked once in 5 plate appearances. He had a very solid spring, batting .323 with 8 extra base hits include 2 home runs.

Wesley Wright entered the game in the bottom of the 7th to face Brian Giles and got him to ground out. It appears as though Wright has a knack for walking batters. In AAA last year he walked 18 batters in 16.2 innings. His spring wasn’t a whole lot better where he walked 8 batters in 11 innings.

Finally, Blake Dewitt got the start at third base for the injured Nomar Garciaparra, Andy Laroche, and Tony Abreu. He had 1 hit with 2 walks and a run. It’s a nice story for the young third-baseman.