Every week, probably on Monday nights, we’ll be recounting the past week’s top players in terms of WPA and a number of the top plays of the week. I’ll also include whatever else I feel like recapping. Onto the Awards!

Batter of the Week:

Kosuke Fukudome led all players with .95 wins. He’s batting .421 on the season with a 1.279 OPS and couldn’t be off to a better start. His biggest play of the week was on opening day when he hit a three-run home run off Eric Gagne in the bottom of the 9th to tie the game.

Pitcher of the Week:

Felix Hernandez threw 15 shutout innings to start the season but failed to pick up a win. He struck out 9 and walked 5 in his two starts. He almost bested Fukudome’s WPA total with .92 wins.

Worst of the Week:

Brandon Lyon blew two saves this week giving him a WPA of -1.09 wins. Two of the six most valuable WPA plays were off of Lyon. He’s currently allowed 6 hits, 2 home runs, and 4 earned runs in 3 innings of work.

The 3 Biggest Hits:

#1: (.667 wins) – You guessed it, Edwin Encarnacion’s walk-off, three-run, home run takes top honors this week. We covered it when it happened and even have the great video of Jeff Brantley saying how “not clutch” Encarnacion is right before he knocks the ball out of the park. Classic.

#2: (.630 wins) – Josh Hamilton’s two-run, home run off of closer J.J. Putz put the Rangers up 5-4 and denied Felix Hernandez his first win of the season.

#3: (.550 wins) – Mark Reynold hit a two-run, home run off of Rockies closer Matt Corpas, which put the Diamondbacks in the lead 2-1. Brandon Lyon managed to blow the save opportunity, but the Diamondbacks eventually went on to win the game 5-2.

The 3 Biggest Outs:

#1: (-.288 wins) – On opening day, Rafael Betancourt got Jim Thome to ground into an inning-ending double play with the bases loaded and the game tied in the bottom of the 8th. His team, the White Sox, went on to lose to the Indians 10-8.

#2: (-.253 wins) – With the a runner on third and one out, Joakim Soria struck out Edgar Renteria in the bottom of the 9th. Soria’s team, the Royals, were up 5-4 against the Tigers and won the game on the very next play. This was just the start of the Tigers’ current six game losing streak.

#3: (-.221 wins) – In a game where the Twins grounded into 4 double plays, Joe Mauer’s game ending double play with a runner on 1st with one out was the most costly.

Brian Bixler pinch hit and struck out in the top of the 9th with his team, the Pirates, ahead 9-2. He failed to make the opening day roster after a horrible spring, but was called up after an shortstop Jack Wilson landed on the DL. Baseball America named Bixler the 8th best prospect in the Pirates system this season.

Denard Span got the his first start in right field for the Twins and batted 9th. He went 0-2 on the day with 1 walk and played the entire game. He was called up from AAA, where he was batting .333 on the season, to replace the injured Michael Cuddyer. Span spent his off-season listening to cassette tapes of Maury Willis to improve his base running skills.

Hiroki Kuroda had a winning debut as the Dodgers starting pitcher last Friday where he struck out 4 and allowed just a single run in 7 innings of work. Kuroda who is now 33 years old, pitched 1700 innings in Japan over his 11 year career. He signed a 35.3 million dollar contract with the Dodgers this past off-season.

Stephen Holm got his first at-bat in the top of the 8th inning with his team, the Giants, down 13-4. He flied out to left and then continued on as the catcher for the final inning. Though Holm had never played above AA before, he earned the backup catcher job by beating out Eliezer Alfonzo and Guillermo Rodriguez as a nonroster invitee.

Elliot Johnson got the start as the DH for the Rays and went 1-4 in his debut. He was also caught stealing on his first major league stolen base attempt. Johnson taught a class on how to play baseball the right way for $50 dollars an hour while playing for the Rays AAA Affiliate, the Durham Bulls.

Randy Wells pitched 9th inning mop-up duty for the Blue Jays in his debut. He faced four batters and walked one. Last season in AAA for the Cubs he struck out 101 batters in 95 innings of work. He was initially drafted as a catcher but was converted to a pitcher due to his strong arm and poor hitting skills.

Yasuhiko Yabuta pitched one inning for the Royals and allowed just one hit in his debut. Yabuta pitched 12 years for the Chiba Lotte Marines and signed a 2 year, 6 million dollar contract with the Royals this off-season. He struck out Alex Rodriguez, Derrek Lee and Johnny Damon in the 2006 World Baseball Classic.

2008 minor league data has started rolling in and will of course be updated daily. The minor league stats are available in both the leaderboards and the stats pages.

We’ve also reluctantly updated the Devil Rays name to the Rays.

And spring training stats are now hidden by default, but if you still want to see those oh-so-meaningful stats, you can always click on the “Show Spring Training” button.

There was one player other than Johnny Cueto to make his big league debut yesterday and it was none other than Callix Crabbe.

Crabbe pinch hit for the Padres to start of the bottom of the 7th. He got to see two major league pitches and then flied out to left field. Crabbe, who plays second base, showed adequate power (9 home runs) and a decent ability to get on base with a 12.8% walk rate in AAA. He was also the 2007 “Applebee’s Home Team Hero” for the Brewers’ AAA affiliate, the Nashville Sounds.

Cueto struck out 10 while walking none in 7 innings of work and I already wrote about him here. He looked very good and I suggest you see him for yourself next time he’s on the mound.

The Nationals ended their bid at a 4-0 start to the season when Jesus Colome walked in the winning run after intentionally loading the bases. This is not the first time Manny Acta has walked the bases loaded.

On April 20st in the bottom of the 13th inning, Hanley Ramirez was walked with a runner on 1st and 2nd to load the bases for Matt Treanor in a move that eventually worked out to the Nationals advantage.

There was a very informative post by MGL and discussion following those events on The Book Blog.

However, this situation was considerably different in that there was already a runner on third with one out and Chase Utley was intentionally walked leaving a runner at 1st and 3rd. Walking that batter actually increased the win probability of the Nationals and was unquestionably the correct move. Then Ryan Howard was intentionally walked to load the bases to bring up Jayson Werth.

To me this seems like you’re pitting Ryan Howard’s batting average and sac fly potential against Jayson Werth’s OBP and sac fly potential. A ground ball or an error could score the run too, but I think that’d be just as likely to happen with Werth at the plate as with Howard, so lets run some quick back of the envelope calculations.

Let’s say any outfield fly will score the runner and Howard hits outfield fly balls in about 22% of his plate appearances. That’s a 22% chance he’ll score the run right there. Then there’s the chance that he gets a hit on a non-fly ball, which is about 12.3% of his plate appearances. Now we’re up to a 34.3% chance that Howard will win the game in this at-bat. There’s also a 16% chance he’ll walk anyway, making the Nationals chance at a “favorable outcome” in this at-bat about 50-50.

Then there’s Jayson Werth, who if we run the same exercise for, hits outfield fly balls about 28% of the time, non-fly ball hits about 19% of the time, and walks 15% of the time, giving him about a 62% chance to win the game.

Maybe we add +10% to Howard and -10% to Werth because of righty/lefty splits, making the game winning percentage for Howard 44% and the game winning percentage for Werth 52%.

I guess the question is, how much more likely is a double play going to be made with the bases loaded than with a man on 1st and 3rd? I’d think the chance would have to be considerably higher in order to justify walking the batter unless the batter is much much worse.

Almost exactly a year ago, Daisuke Matsuzaka made his big league debut, striking out 10 batters in 7 innings of work. Today, Johnny Cueto made his debut for the Reds and threw 7 innings of one hit ball and also struck out 10 batters in what was the first double digit strikeout performance this season by any pitcher.

During the game they flashed a graphic of pitchers who had struck out 10 in their major league debuts since 1980. Only Steve Woodard and Tim Hudson had struck out more in their debuts with 12 and 11 strikeouts respectively.

Cueto has dominated all levels of competition he’s played in the past two years with his high strikeout rate and minuscule walk rate. He’s made numerous 2008 top prospect lists including Baseball America (#34), Baseball Prospectus (#41), John Sickels (#21), and MiLB.com (#48).

Dusty Baker (destroyer of arms) let him throw just 92 pitches and hopefully they’ll continue to keep his pitch counts reasonable.

Tomorrow we’ll get to see the other Reds spring training standout, Edinson Volquez make his season debut. It’s been two big days for the Reds, maybe they can make it three.

Masa Kobayashi was one of four players to make their big league debut yesterday. He struck out 1 and allowed 2 hits before getting yanked for Rafael Perez. After playing in Japan for 10 years and saving over 200 games, he signed a 6.25 million dollar, 2 year contract with the Indians. He had a decent, yet unspectacular spring and it will be interesting to see how he fares as the year goes on.

Evan Meek pitched less than an inning of relief for the Pirates and allowed a two run homer to Yunel Escobar. Meek needs to pitch the entire season for the Pirates or else he’ll be offered back to the Devil Rays. His 69 strikeouts in 67 innings in AA are a good sign, but he still needs to cut down on his walks quite a bit. I guess he’ll be learning on the job if the Pirates want to keep him.

Randor Bierd who pitched himself into the bullpen with a strong spring training, threw 2 innings and allowed only a single hit in his debut for the Orioles. Like Meek, his strikeout ability is enticing, but unlike Meek, he already has his walk rate under control. Last year in AA he walked a mere 24 batters in 53 innings and struck out 40.

Alex Romero was the sole batter to make his debut. He had a successful sacrifice bunt for the Diamondbacks in his only plate appearance and then headed back to the bench. Romero hit .339 this spring which enabled him to beat out Trot Nixon for a roster spot.

The results are in for Tangotiger’s clutch project and you can read all about them over at The Hardball Times. Over here, we have the clutch scoreboard up and running where you can already track how well your selections are doing.

With the Reds down by 2 runs in the bottom of the 9th, Edwin Encarnacion hit a walk-off, three-run home run. It was not only the most important hit so far this year according to WPA, but also the biggest hit of Encarnacion’s career by a long shot. His previous single most important hit was a bases clearing double all the way back in September of 2005 worth .45 wins. Tonight’s home run was worth .62 wins.

Found the video: Hat tip to Brock For Broglio