Author Archive

Ailing Back Hurts Haren’s Velocity, Effectiveness

We’ve seen Dan Haren‘s results this season, and we’ve been wondering what’s going on. His walks are up. He’s giving up more hits. And his FIP is the highest of his career. Granted, his poor first half hasn’t been as alarming as, say, Tim Lincecum’s, but Haren’s been off his game for the first three months of the season.

After Tuesday’s latest disappointing outing, in which he lasted only 4.1 innings, giving up nine hits and six earned runs, Haren revealed that he’s been dealing with a lingering back issue. According to the Orange County Register, “Haren said this year’s problem began when he ‘tweaked’ his back during his final spring training start and has never really gone away.”  [Haren’s last spring training start was on April 2 against the Dodgers. It was a relief to learn that Haren’s back injury arose after the FanGraphs staff saw him at the In-N-Out in Tempe, Arizona on March 11. We were starting to feel a bit responsible.]

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Double-Error, Game-Winning Plays

The Brewers and Diamondbacks played an afternoon game on Sunday at Miller Park. The scored was tied 1-to-1 heading to the bottom of the ninth. Milwaukee’s Aramis Ramirez walked to lead off the inning. He was replaced by pinch runner Carlos Gomez. Corey Hart flew out, bringing Rickie Weeks to the plate. Arizona’s Patrick Corbin never threw a one pitch to Weeks. Gomez scored the winning run. It looked like this:

A double-error, game-winning play. A rarity in baseball.

How rare?

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If It Really Counted: NL Edition

Note: As several readers pointed out, I only had 24 players on my roster when the post went live earlier today. Yes, I was confident my team could beat Dave Cameron’s but why cheat myself by having one less player. So I’m adding Zack Greinke. There, now you have another thing to comment on.

As Dave laid out this morning, we’re tackling the question of what the rosters for next week’s All-Star Game might look like if the game actually counted. If we got rid of the one-rep-per-team rule, got rid of the extra roster spots, and focused on winning the prize rather than making sure everyone got a chance to play. One game, winner-take-all, AL vs NL. Dave’s AL squad looks pretty good, but I think I put together an NL squad that could take the crown for the senior circuit.

The only thing I knew about Dave’s plans for the American League was that Justin Verlander would be his starting pitcher. The only thing Dave knew about my roster was that Stephen Strasburg would be my starting pitcher.

Here’s the “If It Really Counted” National League All-Star Roster:

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Angels Bullpen Takes Flight

On April 30, the Los Angeles Angels had a record of 8-15 and sat 9.5 games behind the first-place Texas Rangers. Today, the Angels are 40-33. They are now only 4.5 games behind the Rangers, and tied for the second wild card with the Tampa Bay Rays. Much of the focus for the Angels success in May and June has been on rookie sensation Mike Trout, Albert Pujols‘ re-found stroke, and the overall play of Mark Trumbo.

But don’t overlook the Angels’ bullpen. After a poor start, Angels relievers have been hugely important to the team’s revived play. And it wasn’t just the addition of Ernesto Frieri in early May that turned things around for the Angels’ relief corps.

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As Temperatures Soar, So Do The Home Runs

Yesterday was the first day of summer. Temperatures were above-average throughout most of the country. In cities hosting MLB games, temperatures were 5-15 degrees above normal, save for those games played in the paradise known as the California coast.  There were 41 42 home runs hit in MLB games yesterday. These facts are likely related.

First things first. Yesterday’s home run tally did not break the record for most home runs hit by all MLB teams on a single day. That record is 62 home runs, hit on July 2, 2002. We’ll come back to that in a bit.

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Does Father Know Best? The Colby Rasmus Edition

We went for a nice family hike on Father’s Day. On the drive south toward the Santa Cruz mountains, we were listening to Marty Lurie’s show on KNBR before the Giants game against the Mariners. Lurie had a nice selection of audio cuts from players and coaches talking about the role their dads played in their lives. And then Lurie played a long interview with Giants manager Bruce Bochy. My ears perked up when I heard Lurie ask Bochy if he’s ever had to deal with a player’s father calling him up, complaining about playing time or raising other issues. Bochy chuckled and said he’s never had to deal with that. “One of the nice things about being a big-league manager is that the parents aren’t involved at this level,” Bochy said, or words to that effect.

I thought about Chris Lincecum and the role he’s played as a sometimes-consultant to Tim and pitching coach Dave Righetti. And I thought about Colby Rasmus and his dad, and all that went down in St. Louis before the Cardinals traded Rasmus to the Blue Jays last July. Then I turned off the radio and went on a nice, long hike.

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Matt Cain And Perfection

Matt Cain threw a perfect game Wednesday night, the first one in the 128-year history of the Giants franchise. Just moments after the game ended, Dave Cameron provided some historical context on Cain’s pitching performance, looking at the highest GameScores in baseball history. I’ve had a bit more time for reflection.

If you read my posts regularly, you know I’m a Giants fan. A passionate, analytical, demanding Giants fan. I watch or listen to nearly every game. I pore over numbers and charts. I conjure trades and free-agent signings, and despair when they don’t come to fruition. I complain about lineups and bullpen usage and Brandon Belt not getting enough playing time. Yes, a lot of complaining about Brandon Belt. You do the same for your favorite team. We love baseball. We love our team. It’s what we do.

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Indians Need Power Boost

Heading into Tuesday’s games, the White Sox and Indians sit half a game apart atop of the American League Central division, with the expected division-winner Tigers five games back. This morning, Chris Cwik addressed the White Sox’ need to upgrade at third base to stay competitive in the division. The Indians need an upgrade as well–a big, powerful upgrade.

The Indians’ 32-27 record is a bit misleading. Cleveland’s scored only 261 runs and allowed 277, putting the team’s Pythagorean record at 28-31. The Tigers have nearly the same split and sit at 28-32 in the standings. The White Sox, on the other hand, have scored 291 runs and allowed 256, putting their 32-26 pretty much in line with their expected record.

Cleveland’s offense is doing somethings well. The Tribe has the highest walk rate (9.8%) and the lowest strikeout rate (16.2%) in the American League, putting them third in the league in on-base percentage (.329). But the Indians’ wOBA (.314) ranks only ninth. Why? A complete lack of power.

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Early Gold Glove Contenders: Relief Pitchers

No relief pitcher has ever been awarded a Gold Glove. But just because something has never been done before, it doesn’t mean it will never happen in the future. Perhaps Gold Glove voters haven’t been presented with compelling arguments in favor of a fantastic-fielding relief pitcher. Or done the research themselves. I’m going to fix that, starting now.

My methodology: I reviewed defense-related statistics for all relievers who’ve pitched at least ten innings this season. I focused on assists, put-outs, rPM (plus/minus runs saved) and DRS (defensive runs saved). I’m familiar with the recent discussion about whether DRS accurately captures a player’s defensive performance when his manager orders the defense to shift. But pitchers don’t shift (at least not yet). So I am comfortable relying on DRS as metric accurately measuring a pitcher’s contribution to saving runs.

I also reviewed video of defensive plays made by the top ten contenders, as ranked by the statistics. I only reviewed those plays available as highlights on MLB.com. I did not review video of every game in which these relief pitchers appeared this season.

Based on the statistics and the video, I’ve identified three relief pitchers in each league as Gold Glove contenders.

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Second Freak Injury Recharges Affeldt’s Season

Jeremy Affeldt is left-handed relief pitcher for the San Francisco Giants. Some, including me, have referred to him as a LOOGY (Lefty One-Out GuY) over the years, but that’s not entirely the case. This is Affeldt’s fourth season with the Giants, his eleventh overall in the majors. The only season with the Giants in which he’s been more effective against left-handed batters than righties was 2011, as measured by K/BB, wOBA and FIP.
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