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Wendy Thurm FanGraphs Chat – 5/31/12


Starlin Castro and the Odd Stat of the Day

If you’ve been reading my posts over the last eight months, you know I enjoy writing about quirky players, quirky stats and quirky stories. If you enjoy those too, read on. If not, read on anyway. You might find this one interesting.

Monday afternoon, Matthew Leach, a terrific national baseball writer for MLB.com, tweeted: “Starlin Castro: more CS than BB. Guessing not many guys have kept that up over a full season.” Good guess. Not many have.

Let’s look first at Castro’s numbers.

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Oswalt, Texas Ranger

Note: Ken Rosenthal now reporting that Oswalt’s deal is fully guaranteed for $5 million-$6 million, and will not be paid pro rata.

The Dallas Morning News is reporting that Roy Oswalt has signed with the Texas Rangers. According to Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports, it’s a one-year deal worth between $5 million-$6 million, depending on how much time Oswalt spends with the team. Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that Oswalt told the Rangers he will ready to pitch in the majors in one month.

When he is ready, Oswalt likely will replace Scott Feldman in the Rangers’ starting rotation. The Rangers moved Feldman from the bullpen after Neftali Feliz went on the disabled list with elbow inflammation. Feldman will resume his role as the long reliever for Texas. If Oswalt is successful for Texas, Feliz may very well return to the bullpen when he comes off the disabled list.

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The Curious Case of Cody Ransom

The Arizona Diamondbacks placed utility infielder Cody Ransom on waivers earlier this week. On Thursday, the Milwaukee Brewers claimed Ransom and added him to their active roster. A commonplace transaction, repeated hundreds of times throughout the baseball season. Oh, but when it comes to Cody Ransom, nothing is commonplace.

When Ransom plays in his first game for the Brewers, he will hold an interesting distinction. You see, the Brewers are Ransom’s 6th major-league team. Okay, that’s not terribly unusual. Lots of players have played for 6 or more teams. But in the Expansion Era (1961 to the present), no player who’s played for 6 or more major-league teams has had 8 or more seasons in which he’s played 35 games or fewer.

Allow me to explain.

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Austin Jackson, Man of Action for Tigers

The Detroit Tigers are in third place in the American League Central at 20-21.  They’re not where they — and many of us — expected them to be at this part of the season. Yes, the starting rotation’s been inconsistent, other than the supremely good and consistent Justin Verlander. The bullpen has sprung a few leaks, and leads the American League in losses with eight. But it’s the offense that’s been the most disappointing.

Through 41 games, the Tigers have scored 180 runs, just the seventh-most in the American League. The Rangers have scored 236. Even with Evan Longoria sidelined, the Rays are ahead of the Tigers with 184 runs. The Yankees, who haven’t had a hit with a runner in scoring position in two weeks (or so it seems), have scored 189.

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Max Scherzer Strikes Out 15, All Swinging

It’s been a strange season for Detroit Tigers stater Max Scherzer and its only the third week of May. Well, maybe strange is too strong of a word. Perhaps interesting is a better choice. And it certainly has been interesting.

Scherzer’s first start of the season, on April 8 against the Boston Red Sox, ended after only 2 2/3 innings. The righty gave up seven runs on eight hits and two walks and was pulled before the end of the third inning. Of his 80 pitches, there were 51 strikes — 16 called strikes and four swing-throughs. The other 31 strikes were either hits or foul balls. Velocity didn’t appear to be an issue. His fastball averaged 93.5 mph, his two-seamer averaged 94.6, his slider averaged 86.6 and his change-up averaged 85.1 — all faster speeds than he recorded on average in 2011.  But he threw too many pitches over the heart of the plate, resulting in hits and runs.

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Brandon Inge’s Second Rare Feat

During the 2011 postseason, I wrote about Brandon Inge and the unusual circumstances of his season with the Detroit Tigers. In post entitled Brandon Inge’s Rare Feat, I explained that:

Based on my research, Inge appears to be the only player in the past 10 years with more than five years of major-league service who was designated for assignment, then was recalled by the major-league team that sent him down and then went on to play a significant role [for that team] in the postseason.

The Tigers had designated Inge for assignment last July after he batted .144/.202/.196 in 239 plate appearances. He reported to the Tigers’ Triple-A affiliate in Toledo, and hit his way back to Detroit in August. Upon his return, he batted .262/.315/.436 in 54 plate appearances and earned a spot on the Tigers’ postseason roster. He contributed a .429/.500/.571 line to the Tigers’ winning effort over the Yankees in the League Division Series and a .267/.389/.467 line in the Tigers’ loss to the Rangers in League Championship Series.

Heading into the 2012 season, Inge expected to play third base for the Tigers in the final year of his 2-year/$11 million contract. But Victor Martinez blew out his knee and was lost for the season, leading the the Tigers to sign Prince Fielder and move Miguel Cabrera to third base. The Tigers moved Inge to second base, where he split time with Ryan Raburn and Ramon Santiago. In twenty plate appearances, Inge hit .100/.100/.300. The Tigers released him on April 26.

Four days later, the Oakland A’s — desperate for just a replacement-level third baseman — signed Inge. In eleven games, Inge is producing for Oakland like he did for Detroit last postseason. In 50 plate appearances, Inge is hitting .227/.300/.545 with five walks, two doubles and four home runs. Two of Inge’s   homers have been grand slams, including this walk-off slam against the Toronto Blue Jays last week:

He’s also made some nifty defensive plays for the Green-and-Gold, including this catch of Omar Vizquel’s bunt attempt in the same game as the walk-off grannie.

Whether Inge will continue to produce for the A’s remains to be seen. Fifty plate appearances is a tiny sample size and runs counter to Inge’s career numbers: .234/.304/.389, .301 wOBA and 81 RC+.

Even so, Inge has already accomplished something few other major leaguers have: getting released from one team mid-season, signing with a new team that season, and making an immediate impact for the new team.

To be sure, there are dozens of players who’ve redeemed their careers in the the seasons following an outright release. Among pitchers who’ve recently turned their careers around after getting released there’s Brandon McCarthy, Ryan Vogelsong, Kevin Millwood, Clay Hensley, and Tim Byrdak. Among  position players, there’s Casey Kotchman, Melky Cabrera, and Jeff Francoeur.

But few players turn their season around with a new team following a release. Bobby Abreu’s been given a second chance with the Dodgers this season, after the Angels released him on April 26. After batting .208/.259/.303 in 27 plate appearances with Anaheim, Abreu’s posted a .296/.345/.444 line in 29 plate appearances for the boys in blue. Livan Hernandez has been useful out of the bullpen for the Braves this season, after getting released by the Astros at the end of spring training. In 22 1/3 innings, Hernandez has a 2.17 K/BB ratio and is stranding 81 percent of the runners on base.

Last season, the Rays released Cory Wade from their Triple-A affiliate in June only to see him become a steady reliever out of the Yankees bullpen.  The Rangers faced Arthur Rhodes in the World Series after they released him  August and he signed on with the Cardinals.

Pat Burrell turned his career around with the Giants in 2010, after the Rays released him in the second year of a 2-year/$16 million contract. At the time he left Tampa, Burrell was batting .202/.292/.333 with two home runs in 96 plate appearances. In San Francisco, Burrell batted .266/.364/.539 with eighteen home runs in 341 plate appearances and was a key component of the Giants’ first World Series Championship since the team moved to San Francisco in 1958.

Unlike Burrell and Abreu, there’s nothing in Inge’s career numbers to suggest he can sustain this offensive production for the A’s over the rest of the season. But Inge has proved us wrong before. And he may just do it again.


Has Rafael Furcal Found The Fountain Of Youth?

In his age 34 season, Cardinals shortstop Rafael Furcal is off to tremendous start. Through Wednesday’s action, Furcal is batting .361/.423/.508 with a .413 wOBA and a 168 wRC+. In 138 plate appearances, he has 44 hits, including ten doubles and two home runs. His walk rate (9.4 percent)  is above his career average (9 percent) and his strikeout rate (10.1 percent) is below his career average (12.6 percent). Only Carlos Beltran has a higher wOBA and wRC+ on the Cardinals, who are 20-11 after the first thirty-one games of the season.

It’s early, of course, so all small sample size caveats apply. But Furcal’s start puts him at the top of the wOBA and wRC+ leader boards among 33 to 36-year old shortstops over the last 10 years. Derek Jeter’s 2007 and 2009 seasons are close behind, but after that, it’s a pretty sharp drop-off. When you expand the wOBA and wRC+ leader boards to all 33 to 36-year olds who played in the last ten seasons, Furcal finds himself in some pretty good company. Jim Edmonds, Manny Ramirez, Chipper Jones, Magglio Ordonez, Larry Walker, Jim Thome and so on.

What’s fueling Furcal’s early success?
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The Walk-Don’t Walk Sign Is Flashing in Oakland

Even before Billy Beane and Scott Hatteberg and Moneyball, the Oakland A’s were a team that took a lot of walks. Over the 50 years of the Expansion Era (1961-2011), the A’s ended the season with a walk rate below the league average only eight times. Of those eight seasons, in only one did the A’s have a walk rate more than one percentage point lower than the league average. In 1978, the league average walk rate was 8.5 percent and the A’s walk rate was 7.3 percent.

On the flip side, Oakland has three of  the top fifteen walk-rate seasons in the last fifty years. The 1999 A’s share the record with the 2000 Mariners for highest team walk rate in the Expansion Era at 12 percent.  The 2000 A’s came in at 11.7 percent and the 1992 A’s at 11.3 percent. The league average in those seasons was 8.5 percent (1992), 9.5 percent (1999) and 9.6 percent (2000).

After Monday’s action, the A’s team walk rate is 7.9 percent, below the league average of 8.3 percent. That fact isn’t particularly interesting. But the way the A’s get to their 7.9 percent team walk rate is.

The A’s have three players in the top thirty in walk rate for batters with more than 50 plate appearances so far this season. Seth Smith leads the team with a 17.6 percent walk rate (15 in 67 plate appearances), followed by Jonny Gomes at 14.5 percent (9 in 51 plate appearances) and Daric Barton at 13.4 percent (9 in 57 plate appearances). The Indians also have three players in the top 30 (Carlos Santana, Travis Hafner and Shelley Duncan). No team has more than three players in the top 30. Ten teams have no players in the top 30.

The player with the lowest current walk rate in the majors for hitters with more than 50 plate appearances also plays for the A’s. Catcher Kurt Suzuki has one walk in 98 plate appearances, giving him a walk rate of 1 percent. Teammates Josh Reddick and Cliff Pennington also make the top 50 in lowest current walk rate. Reddick is at 4.1 percent (five walks in 121 plate appearances) and Pennington is at 4.4 (5 walks in 114 plate appearances).

If Smith, Gomes and Barton continue on their path and Suzuki, Reddick and Pennington continue on theirs, the A’s could match some interesting records for teams in the Expansion Era.

Since 1961 (and not counting the strike years of 1981 and 1994), only one team has had three players draw 20 walks or less in a season, among players qualifying for the batting title. On the 2007 Seattle Mariners, Jose Lopez drew only twenty walks, while Yuniesky Betancourt and Kenji Johjima drew fifteen each.

Only eight other teams over the last fifty years had two players end the season with twenty or fewer walks among players qualifying for the batting title (again, not counting the strike years).

The 1977 Cardinals were one of those teams. Ken Reitz drew nineteen walks that season. Garry Templeton drew only fifteen. But that Cardinals team also boasted two players who ended the season with more than 75 walks. Keith Hernandez and Ted Simmons each drew 79 walks. The 1977 Cardinals are the only team in the Expansion Era to have two players with twenty or fewer walks and two players with 75 or more walks in the same season.

Will the A’s match the 2007 Mariners for most qualifying players with twenty or fewer walks in a season? Will they match the 1977 Cardinals with two qualifying players with twenty walks or fewer and two players with 75 walks or more in the same season? Will they match both Expansion Era records?

We’ll have to watch and be patient. As patient as Seth Smith, Jonny Gomes and Daric Barton.


Is Tulo Unclutch on Defense, Too?

In Wednesday’s game between the Dodgers and Rockies, Colorado led 2-1 heading into the 8th inning. The Dodgers scored two in the top of the 8th, the Rockies answered with three in the bottom of the inning, and the game went to the 9th with the Rockies up 5-to-3. L.A. had runners on first and second, with two outs, and Dee Gordon at the plate. On a 2-2 pitch, Gordon hit one into the gap in right center field. Rockies right fielder Michael Cuddyer fielded the ball and threw it to cut-off man Troy Tulowitzki, who then made a weak and off-line throw home. Both runners scored and the game was tied.

After the play, I remarked on Twitter how surprised I was by the weak throw home from Tulowitzki. Yes, Tulowitzki’s made six errors so far in 2012, matching his season total from 2011. But the two-time Gold Glover has tremendous range and a very strong arm. He caught the ball cleanly and with plenty of time to get off a good throw, but didn’t. Here’s the video of the play.

Immediately, several Rockies fans and bloggers responded to me on Twitter with “whether on offense or defense, Tulo freezes up in the clutch” or words to that effect. Those comments surprised me more than Tulowitzki’s poor play. To the FanGraphs leader board and, behold, Tulowitzki has been the least clutch hitter in baseball over the last three seasons. My colleague Paul Swydan wrote about Tulowitzki’s clutch problem last August, but noted that Tulo was moving in the right direction, improving his hitting in high-leverage situations. So far this season, however, he’s heading in the wrong direction, with a -.10 clutch rating, ranking him 112th out of 184 qualified batters. Of course, clutch ratings will have big swings at this point in the season, with fewer high-leverage plate appearances per player. Just a look at Matt Kemp’s -.12 clutch rating so far tells you it’s too early to form a judgment.

But what about Tulowitzki’s defense? Does his glove freeze up in the clutch, too? We don’t have a clutch rating for defense, so firing up the leader board will do us no good.

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