Matt Cain will be a free agent at the end of this season. He’s been in serious negotiations with the Giants for months on a new contract. He’s set an Opening Day deadline for those negotiations. Here’s why Cain and the Giants need to get a deal done now.

Cain debuted with the Giants late in 2005 but pitched his first full season the following year. By 2007, he was pitching in the shadow of teammate Tim Lincecum and has done so ever since. But Cain is fourteenth in starting pitcher WAR since 2007 (20 WAR), and is tied with Cole Hamels for sixteenth in starter WAR over the last three seasons (12.3 WAR). Lincecum’s been better, but Cain could have been the ace on many good teams over the last five years.

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Andy Pettitte is back. Sure, it’s a minor-league deal but everyone expects Pettitte to be in the Yankees starting rotation by May. The Pettitte news got me thinking about other pitchers who recently retired from baseball with gas left in the tank. Then I had a twitter discussion about Mike Mussina. And it all came together.

What if Mussina came out of retirement? And Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, and Greg Maddux? What if they all came out of retirement today, did the work to get in shape, and, together with Pettitte, offered themselves up as a package-deal starting rotation? Would that starting five be better than any one of the thirty current starting rotation in the majors?

Quite possibly.

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Mike Trout, the Angels’ top prospect and number three on FanGraphs’ Top 100 Prospects list, hasn’t seen any game action in spring training. Since the start of spring camp, Trout’s been suffering from severe flu-like symptoms, lost ten pounds and been too weak to play in games. He says doctors have ruled out Valley Fever and are treating him with anti-viral medication.

But the fact that Trout had to answer questions about Valley Fever shows how much it has seeped into the baseball reporter’s lexicon. Just a few weeks ago, we learned that Mets first baseman Ike Davis has a mild case of Valley Fever. And, of course, there’s former Diamondbacks outfielder Connor Jackson, who contracted a severe form of the illness in 2009, leading to pneumonia. Jackson missed a good portion of the 2009 season, and has never regained the form or power he showed with Arizona.

What is Valley Fever and why are professional baseball players coming down with it?

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For an explanation of this series, please read Dave Cameron’s introduction from Monday. All the posts in the series can be found here.

Center field is a glamour position. Think Willie Mays. Mickey Mantle. Joe DiMaggio. Ken Griffey, Jr. For some teams in 2012, center field will feature strong, glamorous players. Think Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, and Phillies. For other teams in 2012, center field will feature not-quite-there and been-there-done-that guys. Think Astros, Indians, Blue Jays, and Nationals. The other teams feature players — or platoons– that fall somewhere on the lackluster-to-glamorous spectrum.

As my colleagues have noted in their positional power rankings, this is an art, not a science. We do our best with the information we have, to which we add our analysis and judgment. I have not projected anyone to have more than 600 plate appearances as a center fielder, even though a number of  players have seen 650-plus plate appearances for several seasons. Things happen. Injuries happen. It just made sense to me to be conservative, particularly with a position that requires a great deal of athleticism.

And now, on to the show.

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There was a great deal of hand wringing among Giants fans during the offseason about what the team should do at shortstop. The incumbent, as it were, is Brandon Crawford, who jumped from Single A to the majors in 2011 after Pablo Sandoval broke the hamate bone in his right hand in late April, shifting Miguel Tejada over to third base. Tejada didn’t produce at the plate no matter where he played in the field and was cut in late August. In 220 plate appearances, Crawford posted a paltry .204/.288/.296 but showed value in his glove, recording 6 Defensive Runs Saved in 500+ innings.

Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins were available free agents shortstops. Fans were split on whether the Giants should pursue either one, or both, and if so, for how long and for what kind of money. Never mind the fans, though. Reports suggest the Giants front office never considered a serious offer to either Reyes or Rollins, although they tried to get Willie Bloomquist and thought about bringing back Edgar Renteria. Neither (thankfully) came to fruition.

All the noise over shortstop, however, may have obscured an equally pressing need for the Giants at second base. Freddy Sanchez is in the second year of a two-year deal with the Giants, after joining the team mid-2009 in a trade from the Pittsburgh Pirates. And while Sanchez has been moderately effective when he’s played, he’s had one injury after another, missing big chunks of time.

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Last week I proposed a change to MLB rules on blown-save wins — i.e., those wins accorded to the relief pitcher who blows a save, but is the pitcher of record when his team re-takes the lead. My proposed rule change was narrow, intending to capture only those blown-save wins credited to the relief pitcher who pitches immediately after the starting pitcher leaves the game with the lead, after having pitched at least seven innings. Under this scenario, the win would revert to the starting pitcher and the relief pitcher would be credited only with the blown save.

Many of you asked to see the list of all blown-save wins that would have reverted to the starting pitcher under my proposed rule change. The below chart lists the 85 games played from 1992-2011 that would have resulted in a different winning pitcher under my proposed rule.

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I know. Pitcher wins don’t matter. Starting pitchers are better measured by FIP and xFIP and BABIP. Relief pitchers are better measured by K/BB ratios and WPA and the percentage of inherited runners left on base.

And yet, pitcher wins matter to pitchers.

A relief pitcher shouldn’t be rewarded with a win when his performance caused his team to lose its lead, only to regain the lead while he is pitcher of record. A starting pitcher who pitches at least seven innings and leaves with the lead shouldn’t be penalized with a no decision when the relief pitcher who replaces him coughs up the lead.

I propose a change to MLB rules as follows:

(1) When a starting pitcher pitches at least seven innings and leaves the game with at least a one-run lead;

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Last week, in Part 1, I set out my criteria for “best value players” and selected the pitcher, catcher, first baseman, and second baseman that, in my view, best met those criteria in the twenty seasons from 1992 to 2011.

Today, in Part 2, I select the “best value players” at shortstop, third base, left field, center field, and right field over the same twenty-year period.

First, a note about values prior to 2002. In Part 1, I explained that the Wizards of FanGraphs had calculated the dollar value per WAR for the years 2002-2011, but not for 1992-2001. When comparing contracts from the 1990’s to contracts in the 2000’s, I did my best to estimate values by taking inflation into account. I agree with several of the comments that simply taking the value of contracts from the 1990’s and estimating their present value based on inflation may not be the most accurate way to go about it.

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Last week, I wrote about what it would take for the Nationals to sign Ryan Zimmerman to a long-term contract, perhaps making him a National for life.  Along the way, I looked at other long-term deals to see which, if any, made sense as a model for a new Nationals-Zimmerman agreement. One such contract was Evan Longoria’s 6-year/$17.5 million deal with the Tampa Bay Rays. I quickly decided that Longoria’s contract — which covers all six of his pre-free agency years, with club options for the first three years of free agency — didn’t make sense as a model for Zimmerman, who’s in the midst of a 5-year/$45 million contract and will become a free agent in 2013.

But, oh, that Evan Longoria contract.

Seventeen-and-a-half million dollars for six years of the 2008 American League Rookie of the Year, perennial MVP candidate, three-time All-Star and two-time Gold Glove winner. I kept thinking and thinking and thinking about that Evan Longoria contract. Oh, that Evan Longoria contract. And I wondered, is that the best value contract in the last twenty years?

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With 29.2 Wins Above Replacement in the past six seasons, Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman has the 11th-most WAR during that period. You read that right: 11th.  That’s more than Adrian Gonzalez. More than Jose Reyes. More than Mark Teixeira.  More than Adrian Beltre.

I don’t know about you, but I was surprised by that. And I spend a lot of time on the FanGraphs leader boards. But there are at least three people (actually, I’m sure there are many more) who know exactly how much WAR Zimmerman accumulated in the past six seasons: Zimmerman, his agent and Nationals’ general manager Mike Rizzo.

Zimmerman has played his entire career with the Nationals, and he’s said publicly that he’d like to finish his career with the Nats. His current 5-year, $45 million contract — which covered his last three years of arbitration-eligibility (from 2009 to 2011) and will cover his first two years of free agency (2012-2013) — expires soon.  The deal was heavily back-loaded, so the Nationals will pay Zimmerman $12 million in 2012 and $14 million in 2013. Both sides have expressed interest in getting a new, long-term deal done now and are believed to be close on terms. But Zimmerman will table any extension talks once spring training begins. That leaves a three-week window to negotiate a new agreement, or wait until next winter.

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