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Reviewing the AL Sleeper Prospects of 2012

One of the more enjoyable parts of the annual Top 15 prospects lists that I do at FanGraphs is unearthing and writing about new, unpolished prospect gems. As a result, I added an extra player to each Top 15 list during the pre-2012 series and highlighted a “sleeper prospect” that did not make it into the featured group.

The minor league regular season ends in less than a month and the 2013 Top 15 prospect lists are already forming in my mind so I though it would be a good time to reflect back on my collection of sleepers and see how many of them woke up.

The AL East

Dalton Pompey, OF, Toronto Blue Jays: Pompey, 19, was assigned to short-season Vancouver to begin 2012 and was looking good (20.5 BB%, 172 wRC+) before a broken hamate bone in his left wrist wiped out his season after just 11 games.

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Updated: Minor League Pitching Conversion Projects

Back in mid-March I took a look at some interesting names that were making the conversion from minor league hitters to pitchers. The biggest success, so far, has been the emergence of Oakland’s Sean Doolittle who has now pitched 23.1 big league innings. Let’s see how everyone is doing as the minor league regular season starts to wind down.

Kyler Burke, Chicago Cubs (CF to LHP)

Burke, 24, is the rare conversion project who is being used in the starting rotation, as opposed to the bullpen. Hitters-turned-pitchers usually have more success in the bullpen because they have fewer pitches to polish and can move quickly (They’re typically older and a few years behind the eight ball once they start pitching). Burke began the year in low-A ball and made 15 appearances (10 starts) and is now pitching in high-A where he’s made another eight starts. His control has been good but his strikeout rate is low at 6.64 K/9. He could be ready for double-A to begin 2013.

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Philly Receives Respectable Return for Hunter Pence

The San Francisco Giants have secured a veteran outfielder for the stretch run but it comes at the cost of a young catching prospect.

Tommy Joseph, 21, was the organization’s second round draft pick in 2009 and he’s moved methodically through the minor league system, one level each year, and landed in double-A to begin the 2012 season. Despite being known as an offensive-minded catcher, the Arizona native has yet to post a wRC+ above 95, meaning he’s struggled to produce league-average offense. Despite that, he’s shown raw power potential and slugged 22 home runs in 127 high-A games last season. This season his isolated power rating has dipped to .132 (from .198 in ’11).

Joseph doesn’t hit for average, his walk rate is modest and he flirts with 20% strikeout rates so he’ll need to remain at catcher to have any true value at the big league level. Defensively, he’s made strides in the finer aspects of his game, which is good news because his strong arm would be wasted at first base and he just doesn’t have the type of profile that hints at future success there.

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Houston Finds Value in Return for Replaceable Part

Jeff Luhnow is at it again. The Houston Astros general manager has flipped starting third baseman Chris Johnson to the playoff-hungry Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for two fringe-B-level prospects.

The approach being utilized by Houston is an excellent one. The organization does not have highly-sought-after commodities to trade (Carlos Lee, Brandon Lyon, Wandy Rodriguez, Johnson) so they’re seeking former highly-regarded prospects that have fallen in value but remain promising.

From Arizona, Houston acquired two outfielders that were taken within the first 64 picks of the 2009 amateur draft: Bobby Borchering (16th overall) and Marc Krauss (64th). Neither player is a sure-fire big league regular but both should see time with the Astros and the 27-year-old Johnson is not a regular third baseman; he didn’t play the hot corner, he played a lukewarm corner.

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Zack Greinke’s Strange Brew: Prospect Package

The Milwaukee Brewers finally pulled the trigger on the trade that everyone was expecting: The team traded starting pitcher Zack Greinke. In return, the Los Angeles Angels sent a three-prospect package, which middle infielder Jean Segura headlined.

Segura, 22, was recently promoted to the majors for the first time in his pro career and was one of the Angels’ top prospects — if not their best, with the graduation of MVP candidate Mike Trout — but the system is also among the bottom 10 in baseball (and now possibly is one of the five worst). Milwaukee — another bottom-feeder, in terms of their minor league system — moves up a couple of slots with this deal that also included Double-A pitchers John Hellweg and Ariel Pena.

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Starling Marte Lands in Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh Pirates prospect Starling Marte came out swinging.

The rookie deposited the first MLB pitch he saw into the stands for a home run. It’s a fitting introduction for the young outfielder who possesses immense talent but his approach at the plate suggests he won’t fully tap into his potential unless he makes some adjustments.

A notoriously-aggressive hitter, Marte did not post a walk rate of more than 4.9% in his career until 2012 and bottomed out at 3.8% in 2011 at the double-A level. He has very good speed (although he’s raw as a base stealer) which has helped him maintain exceptionally high BABIPs in the minors making him appear to be a better hitter than he really is at this point. With that said, it’s not easy to hit .300 over the course of a full season and Marte has done it each season (in North America) up until 2012; he was hitting “just” .286 at the time of his recall.

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Matt Harvey Looks to Add Spark to Mets’ Season

In a move that has been long desired by New York fans, the Mets are handing the ball to prospect Matt Harvey. The right-hander has been recalled from triple-A and will make his debut on Thursday night against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Harvey, 23, was the club’s first round draft pick (7th overall) out of the University of North Carolina during the 2010 amateur draft. He’s made a quick climb through the minor league system since then and opened 2012 in triple-A. The hurler had a bit of a bumpy April but cruised through May and June by striking out 72 batters in 66.1 innings of work. In a total of 110 innings on the year, Harvey has an impressive strikeout rate of 9.16 K/9.

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Houston Adds More Prospect Depth in Wandy Deal

The Houston Astros continue to shed veteran players and General Manager Jeff Luhnow made one of his better trades in terms of prospect value, although none of the three players are A-level young stars. The additions of pitchers Rudy Owens and Colton Cain, as well as outfielder Robbie Grossman adds more depth to the rebuilding Astros and is more than a fair return for left-handed starter Wandy Rodriguez.

Owens has a modest ceiling and fits as more of a No. 4 starter; I ranked him as the 13th best prospect in the Pirates system entering 2012. The 24-year-old southpaw has spent the last two seasons at the triple-A level and made big strides this year, lowering his ERA from 5.05 to 3.14. He’s also cut his hits-allowed rate from 10.34 to 8.59 H/9. Owens could easily slide into the Astros’ starting rotation right now and pitch as well of better than Dallas Keuchel and/or Lucas Harrell.

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Jean Segura Gets ‘The Call’ from Angels

Los Angeles caught lightning in a bottle with the addition of rookie Mike Trout earlier this season. Now the team will look to do the same with the addition of Jean Segura. Back in November, I ranked the rookie as the club’s fourth-best prospect entering the this season.

The middle infield prospect was promoted to the majors for the first time in his pro career after starting shortstop Erick Aybar fouled a pitch off his foot on Saturday. X-rays were inconclusive, but the swelling has yet to subside. It remains to be seen how long he’ll be out of action. Segura, 22, has battled injury woes of his own and missed a good chunk of the 2011 season when he hurt a hamstring. I wrote less than a month ago that the infielder was about a year away from helping the big league club, so I’m not expecting a huge impact from the Dominican Republic native in 2012.

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Miami Reloads… Again with Decent Haul from Detroit

The Miami Marlins organization was one of the big boys during this past off-season when the front office tossed money at shortstop Jose Reyes and starting pitcher Mark Buehrle. But the ‘new Marlins’ did not even last a full season before management pulled the plug once again and started flipping expensive veterans for cheap, young talent.

Monday’s deal saw the Marlins send starter Anibal Sanchez and infielder Omar Infante to the Detroit Tigers for pitchers Jacob Turner and Brian Flynn, as well as catcher Rob Brantly. Both Turner (1st overall) and Brantly (6th) appeared on the Tigers pre-season Top 15 prospects list.

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