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Top 15 Prospects: Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox top prospects list has undergone an upheaval over last season’s like no other. Only one player in the Top 10 (Ryan Lavarnway) appeared on the list a year ago, which accounts for an unprecedented amount of movement. The list lost just one prospect to graduation (Josh Reddick) while the other eight players either lost value or were surpassed by more promising talent. The good news for the system is that it still has a fair bit of depth and some of the players who stumbled in 2011 could rebuild their prospect value in ’12.

1. Xander Bogaerts, 3B/SS
BORN: Dec. 1, 1992
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 international free agent
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off

SCOUTING REPORT: Given his young age, Bogaerts’ season was a massive success. He displayed an advanced approach that should lead to him hitting for average down the line and he has good bat speed, which generates above-average power. Defensively he plays a solid shortstop but he’s expected to slow down and shift over to third base before he reaches the Majors. An interesting side note: Bogaerts’ twin Jair Bogaert spent 2011 playing for Boston Dominican Summer League team (He hit .288 in 47 games).

YEAR IN REVIEW: Bogaerts played the 2011 season in low-A ball at the age of 18 – although he spent the first half of the year in extended spring training. He showed uncanny power for his age with an ISO rate of .249, as well as impressive patience (8.4 BB%). He still has rough edges in his game and struggles with breaking balls, which helped lead to a strikeout rate of 24%.

YEAR AHEAD: The infielder could spend 2012 in high-A ball as a teenager, if Boston wants to continue to be aggressive with him. He’ll look to curb his strikeouts while ironing out the rough edges in his game. If he keeps up this pace Bogaerts could be playing in the Majors by the time he’s 21 years old.

CAREER OUTLOOK: Bogaerts has the potential to develop into a middle-of-the-order threat with 30+ home runs a possibility. He should remain on the left side of the infield but it probably won’t be at shortstop. The Aruba native will be a fun prospect to watch in 2012 and I imagine Boston considers him virtually untouchable.

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Oakland’s Gio Haul: A Cynic’s View

What a difference two weeks can make.

I posted Oakland’s 2011-12 Top 15 prospects list on Dec. 6 and have been forced to revise the ranking twice in the last 16 days. The first move sent young starter Trevor Cahill to the Arizona Diamondbacks, while the second – and most recent – deal flipped Gio Gonzalez (and an inconsequential minor league arm) to the Washington Nationals for four prospects.

There have been a lot of kudos over social media outlets for Oakland General Manager Billy Beane but, honestly, I don’t get the love. My personal reaction upon reading the news was: “Really, that’s it?”

I know Gonzalez is not the end-all-and-be-all of starting pitchers but I can see him becoming a reliable No. 2 starter in the Washington Nationals starting rotation for quite a few seasons. There has been a lot made about the positive impact of his home park, as well as Oakland’s defense behind him, but let’s consider his road FIP (4.40) is not terrible by any means and he’ll be facing weaker lineups in the National League.

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Top 15 Prospects: Milwaukee Brewers

Pitching is definitely the strength of the Milwaukee Brewers system. The organization has amassed an impressive group of arms in just the past two seasons. The club scored on two pitchers – Tyler Thornburg and Jimmy Nelson – in 2010 that many thought would crash and burn as starters in pro ball after flip-flopping between the rotation and bullpen in college. They then used two first round picks in 2011 to grab two of the more impressive college arms available to them in the 12-15 pick range. One knock on the system is the serious lack of high-ceiling bats.

1. Taylor Jungmann, RHP
BORN: Dec. 18, 1989
EXPERIENCE: College
ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round (12th overall), U of Texas
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA

SCOUTING REPORT: Jungmann has the makings of a solid No. 2 or 3 starter at the Major League level if he can improve his secondary pitches: a slider and changeup. The right-hander’s main weapon is a heavy fastball that sits in the low 90s and touches the mid 90s. With a big, strong frame he has the potential to develop into an innings-eater but there is a little effort in his delivery that might need to be smoothed out.

YEAR IN REVIEW: The Texas alum didn’t play pro ball after signing, even though fellow first rounder Jed Bradley pitched in the Arizona Fall League. Jungmann had an impressive season in college, posting a 1.60 ERA in 141 innings of work.

YEAR AHEAD: Jungmann will likely be assigned to high-A ball where he’ll look to improve the command of his secondary offerings. He could reach double-A at some point in 2012.

CAREER OUTLOOK: It won’t be long before Jungmann joins fellow young hurlers Zack Greinke and Yovani Gallardo in the Milwaukee starting rotation. He should secure a permanent spot by 2013 and could have a long career with the Brewers.

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Top 15 Prospects: Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox system continues to be one of the weakest in the Majors. The front office and ownership cannot fault anyone but themselves for failing to invest in the amateur draft or the international market. On the plus side, the organization has lucked into a few interesting prospects like Addison Reed and Dylan Axelrod. Chicago doesn’t have a true No. 1 prospect, although Reed has value as a potential high-leverage reliever who is close to MLB ready – and the recently acquired Nestor Molina has a higher ceiling than most of the existing players in the Sox system.

1. Addison Reed, RHP
BORN: Dec. 27, 1988
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2010 3rd round, San Diego State University
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off

SCOUTING REPORT: It was a whirlwind season for Reed, who opened the year as an obscure, yet intriguing, pitcher. A teammate of Stephen Strasburg’s at San Diego State, you have to wonder if there’s something in the water there… as both pitchers went undrafted out of high school before seeing big-time velocity jumps in college. Reed pitches in the mid-90s with his fastball and can touch the upper-90s. He also has a slider that’s developing into a plus pitch.

YEAR IN REVIEW: Reed pitched at five levels in 2011, starting as low as low-A ball and ending in the Majors. It was a crazy ride for the pitcher that posted strikeout rates of 11.80 or higher at each stop. He also showed above-average control with walk rates below 2.00 BB/9 at each stop – save for one (2.61 BB/9 in 20.2 IP).

YEAR AHEAD: All told, Reed walked just 14 batters with 111 strikeouts in 78.1 innings in the minors. He basically has nothing left to prove in the minors and could very well be a key piece of the Sox bullpen in 2012. One thing he needs to watch out for, though, is the home run. He allowed just four all year but three came in triple-A and the Majors as his ground-ball rate diminished.

CAREER OUTLOOK: Reed has the demeanor to succeed as the go-to high-leverage reliever for Chicago and it was his emergence that likely lead to the trade of Sergio Santos to Toronto (for No. 2 prospect Nestor Molina). If Chicago so chooses, Reed and Molina could be a dominating late-game pair – although Molina has potential as a big league starter.

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UPDATED: Oakland, Arizona Top 15 Prospect Lists

Oakland and Arizona recently completed a five-player trade that saw three prospects change hands. Oakland sent Major League pitchers Trevor Cahill and Craig Breslow to Arizona in return for prospects Jarrod Parker, Ryan Cook, and Collin Cowgill. Parker is definitely the best prospect acquired as neither Cook nor Cowgill made the D-Back’s original Top 15 list. Oakland, though, has less depth in their system so all three players can be found on the new list.

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Top 15 Prospects: Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies might not have a strong farm system, but it certainly is an intriguing one. Considering how much talent the organization had to give up to acquire the likes of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee (the first time), Roy Oswalt and Hunter Pence, that’s an impressive accomplishment. And its perhaps even more impressive when you figure in the number of high draft picks the club has had to deal away to assemble its impact ensemble. Still, all those trades have definitely hurt this organization’s minor-league depth:

1. Trevor May, RHP
BORN: Sept. 23, 1989
EXPERIENCE: Four seasons
ACQUIRED: 2008 fourth round, Washington HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Fifth

SCOUTING REPORT: May is a big, strong pitcher with a solid repertoire that includes a 90mph to 95 mph fastball. He also has a potentially plus curveball, a changeup and a new-found slider. His delivery gets out of whack at times, which causes his command to suffer. As a player from a cold-weather state, he’s always been a little behind prospects from sunny weather locales, such as California, Arizona and Florida — but he’s definitely playing catch-up now.

YEAR IN REVIEW: Brody Colvin took a step back in 2011, and Jarred Cosart was traded to Houston, so May’s breakout season was more than welcomed by the organization. The right-hander pitched a career high 144.1 innings and had a 2.69 FIP. He maintained an outstanding strikeout rate (12.10 K/9), but his control remained inconsistent (4.05 BB/9) — and that is the biggest thing preventing him from becoming an elite pitcher.

YEAR AHEAD: May will move up to double-A in 2012 and he isn’t far from contributing to the big-league team. Still, he needs to polish his secondary pitches and improve his control.

CAREER OUTLOOK: May has the potential to develop into a No. 2 starter – especially if he commands his fastball at the major-league level. He has the frame to become an innings-eater.

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Oakland Deals Cahill, Comes Up Snake Eyes

The Oakland Athletics traded a pitcher on Friday but it wasn’t the oft-mentioned Gio Gonzalez who is headed to the Arizona desert.

The A’s traded three-year starter Trevor Cahill, along with left-handed reliever Craig Breslow, to the Diamondbacks for a collect of three prospects: starter Jarrod Parker, reliever Ryan Cook and outfielder Collin Cowgill. It’s a fairly uninspiring return for a young pitcher who compiled more than 200 innings in 2011 and won’t turn 24 until spring training.

The top prize coming to Oakland is former 2007 first-round draft pick Jarrod Parker. I recently ranked him the second-best prospect in the Diamondbacks’ system behind 2011 first – Trevor Bauer. I had this to say about him:

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Top 15 Prospects: Oakland Athletics

Despite all the media attention around its drafting philosophies over the years, the Oakland Athletics organization really doesn’t have a great record with the amateur draft. Yes, the club has nabbed some intriguing players – such as Michael Choice and Grant Green – but the depth is definitely lacking. One current area of strength with the organization is the international scouting staff; the back half of the Top 15 list is littered with high-ceiling athletes.

1. Michael Choice, OF
BORN: Nov. 10, 1989
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2010 1st round (10th overall), U of Texas-Arlington
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 3rd

SCOUTING REPORT: Choices’ No. 1 tool is his power, which could some day rate as a 70 on the scouting scale. His pull-conscious approach and big swing could lead to a lot of strikeouts. He has decent speed, which plays well in the outfield. He’s seen time mostly in center field during his pro career to this point but will likely move to right field where his arm will play well.

YEAR IN REVIEW: Choice, who recently turned 22, enjoyed the offensive environment in the California League and slugged 30 home runs in 467 at-bats. His ISO rate sat at .257 after Choice also flashing above-average power in his small sample size debut in 2010 (.343 ISO). He hit .285 in ’11 but had a healthy BABIP and a 25% strikeout rate in the upper levels of the minors will likely result in lower averages. Even if he doesn’t hit for average Choice has added value because he gets on base a lot (11.3 BB%).

YEAR AHEAD: The slugger will move up to double-A in 2012 and look to trim his strikeout rate while also keeping up the power output. Choice could reach the Majors in the second half of the season – especially after such a strong Arizona Fall League (six homers in 17 games, .318 average).

CAREER OUTLOOK: Choice has the potential to develop into a middle-of-the-order hitter – something the Major League club could really use. He should also have some defensive value.

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Top 15 Prospects: Chicago Cubs

Chicago is a tough, tough system to rank. Outside of the Top 2 players I had about 20-25 guys that could easily have ranked in the remainder of the Top 15. The system is loaded with intriguing B- and C-level prospects that could either explode in 2012 or completely fall off the radar. Some of the guys that missed included Junior Lake, Ryan Flaherty, Aaron Kurcz, Shawon Dunston Jr., Zeke DeVoss, Marco Hernandez, and Dallas Beeler.

1. Javier Baez, SS
BORN: Dec. 1, 1992
EXPERIENCE: 1 season (Rookie)
ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round (9th overall), Florida HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA

SCOUTING REPORT: There weren’t many people that thought Baez would fulfill his commitment to Jacksonville University and a ninth overall selection by the Cubs (along with a $2.6 million bonus) ensured that the dynamic infielder entered pro ball. Baez is a strong fielder with a powerful arm, although scouts are concerned that his range may diminish too much for him to stick at shortstop long term. At the plate, he has plus raw power thanks to his above-average bat speed.

YEAR IN REVIEW: The Puerto Rico native, who played high school ball in Florida, appeared in just five regular season games after signing. He held his own in brief cameos in both the Arizona rookie league and the more advanced Northwest League. Baez will turn 19 in December.

YEAR AHEAD: Because he already had a taste of the Northwest League, Baez will probably begin 2012 in low-A ball. There are whispers that Baez carries a bit of a poor attitude and is aloof so it will be interesting to see how he handles life in the low minors as a millionaire teenager.

CAREER OUTLOOK: If he keeps his head on straight, Baez has all the ingredients necessary to become a top flight MLB shortstop or third baseman (if he looses too much range). With some minor tweaks to his approach, he could very well develop into a middle-of-the-order hitter.

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Top 15 Prospects: Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles minor league system definitely lacks depth and the talent starts to erode after the first three prospects on the Top 15 list. With that said, the first two prospects in particular have monster ceilings and could develop into elite players at the MLB level. With a new front office and a new direction, it will be interesting to see what changes are to come for Baltimore’s minor league development system in 2012.

1. Dylan Bundy, RHP
BORN: Nov. 15, 1992
EXPERIENCE: High School
ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round (fourth overall), Oklahoma HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA

SCOUTING REPORT: Bundy was arguably the best pitcher available in the 2011 draft but the right-hander slipped to the Orioles at No. 4, joining his brother – and fellow Top 15 prospect – Bobby Bundy in the organization. The younger Bundy easily has the better stuff with a mid-to-high-90s fastball, curveball, cutter and changeup. He has above-average pitchability and command for his age. He definitely doesn’t have the biggest frame but also has a smooth, effortless delivery that should help him stay healthy.

YEAR IN REVIEW: It was a huge year for Oklahoma with two prep pitchers – Bundy and his friend Archie Bradley (Diamondbacks) – being selected within the first seven picks of the draft. Fellow prep pitchers Michael Fulmer (Mets) went in the supplemental first round and Adrian Houser (Astros) was nabbed in the second. Even Bundy’s catcher at Owasso High School, Drew Stiner, was selected and signed with the Giants as a 43rd round pick. The Orioles first rounder signed too late to make his pro debut in 2011.

YEAR AHEAD: Bundy is probably advanced enough to open his career in high-A ball but the organization won’t be that aggressive with him; he should start out in low-A ball. Baltimore pushed top offensive prospects Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop with mid-season promotions from low-A to high-A in 2011 but it remains to be seen if the minor league staff would be willing to push a young arm through a similar timetable. It’s important to keep in mind that the club lacks pitching depth in the system but, at the same time, it will be at least a few years before the big league club is anywhere near ready to compete for the AL East division title.

CAREER OUTLOOK: Because he’s such an advanced pitcher, Bundy may need no more than two to three years in the minors before making his MLB debut. The teenager has all the necessary ingredients to develop into a No. 1 starter at the MLB level. The only thing he really lacks is premium size/pitcher’s frame at 6’1” 200 lbs.

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