The San Diego Padres
2010 MLB Record: 90-72 (2nd in the NL West)
Minor League Power Ranking: 26th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

1. Simon Castro, RHP
Acquired: 2006 non-drafted free agent (Dominican Republic)
Pro Experience: 4 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: AA/AAA
Opening Day Age: 23
Estimated Peak WAR: 4.5

Notes: Castro reached triple-A in 2010 at the age of 22. The hard-throwing right-hander pitched the majority of the season in double-A and posted a 3.32 FIP in 129.2 innings of work. He showed respectable control with a walk rate of 2.50 BB/9, but his strikeout rate dropped from 10.07 K/9 at high-A in ’09 to 7.43 K/9. As he continues to face more advanced hitters, Castro will need to improve his slider and changeup to go along with his 90-95 mph fastball. The young pitcher has nice balance on the mound and stays tall through his delivery. He does land on a stiff leg at times and there is a little effort in his delivery, which puts some strain on his shoulder. He throws with a low-three-quarter arm angle and does not have a ton of deception. Despite the mildly alarming drop in strikeouts, Castro is by far the team’s best prospect, but he likely still needs another half year of seasoning in the minors.

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The New York Mets
2010 MLB Record: 79-83 (4th in the NL East)
Minor League Power Ranking: 27th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

1. Wilmer Flores, SS
Acquired: 2007 non-drafted free agent (Venezuela)
Pro Experience: 3 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A/A+
Opening Day Age: 19
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.5

Notes: Flores didn’t have a huge season at the plate but he spent much of the season playing A-ball at the age of 18. The right-handed hitter batted .278/.342/.433 in low-A and then moved up to high-A where he produced a line of .300/.324/.415. Flores was overly aggressive in high-A and saw his walk rate plummet from 7.5% at the lower level to 3.1%. His 36 doubles on the year hint at the raw power he possesses. His strikeout rates have been impressive (14.4% in high-A) given his age; hopefully he can maintain them as his power numbers spike. Flores hits with an open stance and is susceptible to balls on the outer half of the plate. He has a habit of pulling his head off of breaking balls. He also has a lot of movement in the hands, which he clearly uses as a timing mechanism. Flores is at his best when he maintains a level, line-drive stroke and avoids the upper cut. He has enough bat speed that he doesn’t need to generate loft by dropping the head of the bat. Look for his power numbers to spike when he buys into the approach. Flores doesn’t play with as much energy as you might expect from a top-of-the-line prospect and his lack of range will eventually move him off shortstop. He has good arm strength and could end up at third base or an outfield corner.

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The Detroit Tigers
2010 MLB Record: 81-81 (3rd in the AL Central)
Minor League Power Ranking: 28th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

1. Jacob Turner, RHP
Acquired: 2009 1st round (Missouri HS)
Pro Experience: 1 season
2010 MiLB Level: A/A+
Opening Day Age: 19
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.0
Likelihood to Reach Peak: 40%

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The Houston Astros
2010 MLB Record: 76-86 (4th in the NL Central)
Minor League Power Ranking: 29th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

1. Jordan Lyles, RHP
Acquired: 2008 supplemental 1st round (South Carolina HS)
Pro Experience: 3 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: AA/AAA
Opening Day Age: 20
Estimated Peak WAR: 4.0
Likelihood to Reach Peak: 50%

Notes: Lyles reached Triple-A at the age of 19 and a did a nice job of holding his own with a 3.86 FIP in 31.2 innings of work (despite a .406 BABIP). The right-hander spent the majority of the year in Double-A where he posted a strikeout rate of 8.15 K/9 in 127.0 innings while also showing good control (2.48 BB/9). Lyles doesn’t have a huge ceiling but he profiles as a durable No. 3 starter, who could post a few 4.0 WAR seasons during his peak. His repertoire includes a low-90s fastball, curveball, and changeup. Lyles could stand to use his legs more in his delivery, as his current delivery puts a lot of strain on his upper body. Despite his solid control numbers, he does not have an overly-fluid pitching motion.

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The Chicago White Sox
2010 MLB Record: 88-74 (2nd in the AL Central)
Minor League Power Ranking: 30th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

1. Chris Sale, LHP
Acquired: 2010 1st round (Florida Gulf Coast U)
Pro Experience: 1 season
2010 MiLB Level: A+/AAA/MLB
Opening Day Age: 22
Estimated Peak WAR: 4.5
Likelihood to Reach Peak: 50%

Notes: Sale not only reached the Majors in his draft year – he dominated. The lefty pitched just 10.1 innings in the minors before posting a 2.74 FIP in 23.1 innings. He missed a lot of bats (12.34 K/9) while showing respectable control (3.86 BB/9). A starter in college, Sale pitched out of the bullpen in pro ball and saw his fastball velocity climb from the low 90’s and sit around 96 mph. He also displayed a sharp slider, at times, and a promising changeup (which he’ll need to combat right-handed batters). He’s expected to spend some time in the upper minors in 2011 while transitioning back to the starting rotation. If he can maintain the velocity bump as a starter (while also showing the +50% ground-ball rate), he could be a real steal as the 13th overall pick of the draft. With that said, he doesn’t have the smoothest throwing motion and there is a little bit of effort that could be placing added stress on his elbow. At times, Sale also drops his arm a bit more on the changeup.

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Entering 2010, FanGraphs posted Top 10 prospect lists for all 30 MLB organizations. And it’s been a great year for rookies, which means there are going to be a lot of changes in the Top 10 lists for 2011. Before we tackle that beast after the season, though, we’re taking a look at how each club’s No. 1 prospect has fared in 2010. Today, we’re looking at the National League Central division.

Previously, we looked at:
The American League East
The National League West
The American League Central
The National League Central

The Los Angeles Angels
Hank Conger | Catcher
2010 Level: Triple-A
Age: 22

Conger followed up a healthy ’09 season in double-A with another good offensive season in triple-A in which he posted a wOBA of .374. Although his raw power remained just that – raw (with only 11 homers and an ISO of .163) – Conger produced a solid triple-slash line at .300/.385/.463 in 387 at-bats. His walk rate sat at an impressive 12.2 BB% and his strikeout rate was impressive at just 15.0%. On the down side, his defense continues to be “meh,” which is never good for a catcher hoping to play for Mike Scioscia. The 22-year-old switch-hitting Conger could become the next (cheaper-younger) Mike Napoli.

The Oakland Athletics
Chris Carter | First Baseman
2010 Level: Triple-A/MLB
Age: 23

It was a rougher-than-expected year for Carter, who (as of this writing) is 0-for-19 in his MLB debut with a strikeout rate of 47.4% K. Playing mostly at triple-A in ’10, the former White Sox prospect hit .258/.365/.529 with an ISO rate of .271. He slugged 30+ homers in the minors for the second time in three years. (He hit “just” 28 in ’09). Carter is your typical slugging first baseman with 30+ homer potential in the Majors, but he’ll likely hit in the .250-.260 range with a whole whack of strikeouts. Defense is not a strong suit at first base and he’s played the outfield during his brief MLB career with less-than-stellar results. Even with his warts, Oakland can definitely use Carter’s power.

The Texas Rangers
Neftali Feliz | Closer
2010 Level: MLB
Age: 22

You don’t see many 22-year-old closers, but that’s exactly what you have with Feliz. His two-pitch repertoire (96 mph fastball, curveball) has overpowered MLB hitters all season (.192 batting average against, 9.30 K/9) and he currently sits third in the AL with 35 saves. The youngster has also been worked hard by his manager and is in the Top 10 in games pitched in the AL. Pitching in short stints, Feliz has all but abandoned his changeup (thrown 3.4% of the time), which does not bode well for his future development and value to the team (1.4 WAR).

The Seattle Mariners
Michael Saunders | Outfielder
2010 Level: Triple-A/MLB
Age: 23

Saunders’ minor league success just has not carried over to the Majors. He’s currently producing a triple-slash line of .213/.289/.372 in 239 at-bats, good for a wOBA of .292. The Canadian has had major issues with making contact (30% MLB strikeout rate), although he’s at least hitting for more power this season (.159 ISO in 2010 vs .057 in ’09). Known as a pretty good fielder in the minors, Saunders’ glove has not helped him enough. His WAR value is still in the negative for his career. At this point, he doesn’t look like anything more than a fourth outfielder, although youth remains on his side for now, but he needs to make some adjustments.

Up Next: The National League East

Entering 2010, FanGraphs posted Top 10 prospect lists for all 30 MLB organizations. And it’s been a great year for rookies, which means there are going to be a lot of changes in the Top 10 lists for 2011. Before we tackle that beast after the season, though, we’re taking a look at how each club’s No. 1 prospect has fared in 2010. Today, we’re looking at the National League Central division.

Previously, we looked at:
The American League East
The National League West
The American League Central

The Milwaukee Brewers
Alcides Escobar | Shortstop
2010 Level: MLB
Age: 23

It’s been a disappointing offensive season for Escobar, who currently has a wOBA of just .282. His triple-slash line stands at .247/.298/.344 in 453 at-bats. The shortstop’s offensive game historically centers around hitting for average and stealing bases. Along with the sub-.250 average, Escobar has just 10 steals. Whoops. Because he has little or no power (.097 ISO), the 23-year-old needs to get on-base and use his legs if he’s going to have any offensive value whatsoever. Defensively, Escobar has a reputation for being a very good fielder but his UZR rating has been fairly modest throughout his MLB career so far.

The Cincinnati Reds
Yonder Alonso | First Baseman
2010 Level: Double-A/Triple-A
Age: 23

Alonso started the year in double-A but moved up to triple-A after 31 games. He’s played pretty well at the senior level and posted a triple-slash line of .296/.355/.470 in 406 at-bats. The first baseman had a .175 ISO rate, and that power rating is a tad shy for a prototypical first baseman but it’s along the lines of what we should expect from Alonso. After posting outstanding walk rates for much of his career, this former first round pick’s rate dropped below 10% for the first time in three years. With MLB incumbent first baseman Joey Votto having a MVP-type season, the organization has given Alonso some time in the outfield but it’s a stretch.

The Chicago Cubs
Andrew Cashner | Pitcher
2010 Level: Double-A/Triple-A/MLB
Age: 24

The Cubs organization has made some interesting choices with its pitching prospects this season. Cashner opened the year in the starting rotation and was very good. The club then abruptly switched him to the bullpen (a role he held in college) and called him up to the Majors where he’s posted a 5.52 FIP in 43 relief appearances. Cashner has had a real problem finding the plate while coming out of the bullpen and currently has a walk rate of 5.19 BB/9. He’s also been prone to the home-run ball (1.45 HR/9), which was not an issue in the minors at all. Cashner still holds a lot of promise as his fastball is sitting around 96 mph with good sink. He just needs to command it better.

The Houston Astros
Jason Castro | Catcher
2010 Level: Triple-A/MLB
Age: 23

When it comes to catching prospects, the Astros organization seems snake-bitten when it comes to MLB performances. After J.R. Towles washed out (again), the club turned to former No. 1 pick Castro, but he’s struggled mightily with the bat and currently has a wOBA of just .264. His triple-slash line sits at .209/.291/.294 in 163 at-bats. On the plus side, he’s hit the ball with some authority (22.0 LD%) and he’s taking his fair share of free passes (10.4 BB%). With a .254 BABIP, his luck is sure to turn around to some degree. Behind the dish, he’s helping the pitching staff by gunning down base runners (40.0 CS%).

The Pittsburgh Pirates
Pedro Alvarez | Third Baseman
2010 Level: Triple-A/MLB
Age: 23

It’s been a youthful season in Pittsburgh with the graduations of Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata, and Alvarez. The third baseman has shown some warts this season despite providing decent power (.180 ISO). Alvarez currently has a strikeout rate of 36.8 K%, which is not going to get it done at the MLB level. His triple-slash line currently sits at .241/.319/.421 in 266 at-bats. Youth is still on his side, but his value is taking another hit… this time on defense. Alvarez, who has as negative UZR and a poor fielding reputation, will most certainly be moving to first base in the near future.

The St. Louis Cardinals
Lance Lynn | Starting Pitcher
2010 Level: Triple-A
Age: 23

Last year, I avoided including 2009 draft picks on the 2010 Top 10 lists (which is a practice that will be abandoned for 2011). As such, Lynn was at the top of the list rather than Shelby Miller. Lynn went on to have a modest 2010 season by posting a 4.43 FIP in 164.0 triple-A innings. Clearly, he’s durable but Lynn is more of a workhorse No. 3 or 4 starter than an ace. He typically produces a respectable strikeout rate (7.74 K/9 in 2010) along with a good ground-ball rate, although it dipped to 44% this season. Lynn could sneak onto the back-end of the Cardinals’ starting rotation in 2011 and is a good complement to the likes of Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, and Jaime Garcia.

Up Next: The American League West

Entering 2010, FanGraphs posted Top 10 prospect lists for all 30 MLB organizations. And it’s been a great year for rookies, which means there are going to be a lot of changes in the Top 10 lists for 2011. Before we tackle that beast after the season, though, we’re taking a look at how each club’s No. 1 prospect has fared in 2010. Today, we’re looking at the American League Central division.

The Cleveland Indians

Carlos Santana | Catcher
2010 Level: Triple-A/MLB
Age: 24

Santana forced Cleveland’s hand by posting a .451 wOBA in 57 triple-A games in 2010. The catcher then started off his MLB career with a scorching stretch before his bat cooled a bit. His season ended early after an ugly collision at home plate that forced him to go under the knife for a knee injury. Santana ended his rookie season with a triple-slash line of .260/.401/.467 in 150 at-bats. Like Buster Posey in San Francisco, Santana has a bright future as an offensive-minded catcher who projects to get better behind the dish after being converted to the position earlier in his career with the Dodgers. Value: Up

The Kansas City Royals

Mike Montgomery | Left-Handed Pitcher
2010 Level: A+/AA
Age: 21

Montgomery is one of the top pitching prospects in all of minor league baseball who reached double-A at the age of 20. The lefty did have a hiccup this season, though, when he landed on the disabled list with elbow soreness. His numbers have been very good in double-A, but he saw his walk rate increase with the jump (3.50 BB/9), but that could also be related to his injury. Montgomery still has a solid 3.76 FIP and has been hard to hit (7.67 H/9). With a fully healthy 2011 season, he could reach the Majors by the end of next season. Value: Even

The Chicago White Sox

Tyler Flowers | Catcher
2010 Level: Triple-A
Age: 24

After posting a wOBA rate of more than .400 in 2009 (split between double-A and triple-A), Flowers looked to be on course to take the MLB job of incumbent catcher A.J. Pierzynski in 2011. However, a disappointing triple-A season in 2010 may have cast some doubt in the minds of Chicago’s front office. Flowers has hit just .221/.333/.435 in 340 at-bats. Always known for power, walks and lots of strikeouts, the young catcher has continued the trend but the low batting average and even-higher-than-normal K-rate (35%) has led to a .339 wOBA. His BABIP is much lower than his career norm but he could also be putting too much pressure on himself with the Majors with a MLB job within sight. Value: Down

The Minnesota Twins

Aaron Hicks | Outfielder
2010 Level: Low-A
Age: 20

Asked to repeat low-A in 2010 despite a respectable ’09 season, Hicks has risen his wOBA from .337 to 372. His been quite consistent this season, save for a poor showing in May. He’s still learning to tap into his power (.146 ISO) but Hicks has already stolen a career high 19 bases and has an outstanding walk rate at 16.2 BB%. Overall, he has a triple-slash line of. 271/.389/.417 in 391 at-bats. He’s going to continue to require patience, but Hicks could develop into something special. Value: Up

The Detroit Tigers

Casey Crosby | Left-Handed Pitcher
2010 Level: Rookie
Age: 21

Injuries continue to haunt Crosby and he’s appeared in just three games this season after making 24 low-A starts in 2010 in which he posted a 2.80 FIP. The young pitcher has battled elbow soreness this season, which is definitely not good news considering he underwent Tommy John surgery shortly after signing with the Tigers out of high school in 2007. Value: Down

Up Next: The NL Central

Entering 2010, FanGraphs posted Top 10 prospect lists for all 30 MLB organizations. And it’s been a great year for rookies, which means there are going to be a lot of changes in the Top 10 lists for 2011. Before we tackle that beast after the season, though, we’re taking a look at how each club’s No. 1 prospect has fared in 2010. Today, we’re looking at the National League West division.

The San Diego Padres
Simon Castro| Right-Handed Pitcher
2010 Level: Double-A
Age: 22

The Padres organization said goodbye to some interesting arms while trying to solidify its roster for the playoffs. Smartly, the club held onto to Castro, who is performing very well in double-A at a young age. The right-hander has seen his strikeout rate drop from 2009 (10.07 to 7.43 K/9) but he continues to show excellent control (2.50 BB/9) and he continues to be a difficult guy to hit (7.43 H/9). If everything breaks right for Castro he could be a solid No. 2 starter. Value: Even

The San Francisco Giants
Buster Posey | Catcher
2010 Level: Triple-A/MLB
Age: 23

Posey has been as good – or better – as advertised. It’s just too bad the Giants club waited so long to call him up. The former college standout is the odds-on-favorite for Rookie of the Year in the National League with a 2.9 WAR rating and triple-slash line of .329/.372/.505 in 295 at-bats. He already has a positive UZR rating but the athletic Posey has not been catching that long (since college) and projects to get even better behind the dish. Value: Up

The Los Angeles Dodgers
Dee Gordon | Shortstop
2010 Level: Double-A
Age: 22

Flash’s son made a two-level jump to begin 2010 after posting a .359 wOBA with 73 steals at low-A ball in 2009. His time in double-A in 2010 has produced a .321 wOBA with 49 steals. Although his game is built around speed, Gordon could stand to get a little stronger (.081 ISO). On the plus side, his walk and strikeout rates are similar to what they were in low-A, although – like a lot of young, speedy guys – he could stand to be more patient (6.3 BB%). Value: Even

The Colorado Rockies
Christian Friedrich | Left-Handed Pitcher
2010 Level: Double-A
Age: 23

It hasn’t been the best season for Friedrich but he remains one of the top southpaw pitching prospects in the minors. The 23-year-old hurler has appeared in just 18 games and has a 4.21 FIP with 10.31 hits allowed per nine innings. Friedrich has been hit by a line drive this season and also suffered a strained lat muscle in another start… Luckily none of those injuries appear to be long-term concerns. His ascent has definitely been slowed but he could still surface in Colorado in 2011. Value: Even

The Arizona Diamondbacks
Jarrod Parker | Right-Handed Pitcher
2010 Level: Injured – Did Not Play
Age: 21

Despite the knowledge that Parker would be on the sidelines for the entire 2010 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, he could be found at the top of every publication’s top prospect list for this organization. The reason for that was A) He’s just that good, and B) The club’s depth was fairly weak. Things have changed, though, as the club has received a huge boost from its 2009 draft haul (Matt Davidson, Chris Owings, Bobby Borchering, Marc Krauss, etc.). All reports have Parker rebounding well since surgery and he should be on schedule to open 2011 back on the active roster, most likely in double-A. Value: Even

Up Next: The AL Central

Entering 2010, FanGraphs posted Top 10 prospect lists for all 30 MLB organizations. And it’s been a great year for rookies, which means there are going to be a lot of changes in the Top 10 lists for 2011. Before we tackle that beast after the season, though, we’re taking a look at how each club’s No. 1 prospect has fared in 2010. Today, we’re starting with the American League East division.

The New York Yankees
Jesus Montero | Catcher
2010 Level: Triple-A
Age: 20

It’s been a tumultuous season for Montero, who didn’t hit above .250 in a month until June and was almost traded out of the organization. Despite all the drama, Montero remains in pinstripes and that’s a very good thing for the organization. Still just 20, the catcher has held his own at triple-A given his age. He’s currently hitting .286/.359/.493 in 371 at-bats. He’s shown power potential (.208 ISO) against much more advanced pitching while keeping his strikeout rate in check for a power hitter (19.9 K%). Montero’s defense continues to be a work-in-progress (14 passed balls, 23% caught stealing) but time is still on his side. Value: Down Slightly

The Tampa Bay Rays
Desmond Jennings | Outfielder
2010 Level: Triple-A
Age: 23

A late start to the 2010 season, due to an injury, hampered Jennings’ overall impact this year. He’s had an OK – but not great – season at triple-A as a 23 year old. The outfielder is currently hitting .285/.358/.415 in 340 at-bats. He’s been quite successful on the base paths (31 for 33) but his power has not developed as hoped (.129 ISO – his lowest rate since ’06). Jennings has probably been passed by pitcher Jeremy Hellickson as the club’s No. 1 prospect, but the outfielder should still make Carl Crawford or B.J. Upton expendable during the off-season. He still has a little ways to go before he’s a high-impact player. Value: Even

The Boston Red Sox
Casey Kelly | Right-Handed Pitcher
2010 Level: Double-A
Age: 20

It hasn’t been a good year to be a Red Sox prospect. Prospect lists flipped back and forth between Kelly and Ryan Westmoreland as the club’s No. 1 prospect but the latter player underwent brain surgery while the former struggled to adjust to double-A. Given that 2010 was Kelly’s first time committing to pitching full-time (after spending his prep career and first pro season as a two-way player), perhaps Boston was a little too aggressive with the 20-year-old hurler. The right-hander currently has a 5.31 ERA (4.03 FIP) through 21 starts and has seen his walk rate (3.32 BB/9) more than double over last season. Kelly has been quite hittable (11.18 H/9) but he’s also been the victim of a high BABIP (.366). The ’08 draft pick probably needs to repeat double-A in 2011 and it would be nice to see him get his ground-ball rate (currently 45%) back up over 50%, as it was in 2009. Value: Down Slightly

The Toronto Blue Jays
Brett Wallace | First Baseman
2010 Level: Triple-A/MLB
Age: 23

Obtained from Oakland in the off-season during the Roy Halladay dealings, Wallace has now joined his fourth organization since turning pro in 2008. The first baseman was sent from Toronto to Houston (via Philadephia) during the July traded deadline dealings in exchange for raw, but athletic, outfielder Anthony Gose. The move was a bit of a head-scratcher but the Jays organization is openly gambling on potential. Wallace was having an OK season at triple-A prior to the trade. Playing in a very offense-favorable environment, he hit .301/.359/.509 in 385 at-bats. His power output was a little disappointing considering his environment (.208 ISO), and so too was his walk rate (6.4 BB%). After the trade, which saw him land in Houston, Wallace has hit .294/.385/.353 in 34 MLB at-bats. The loss of Wallace to Houston has left pitcher Kyle Drabek – who was also picked up in the Halladay deal – as Toronto’s No. 1 prospect. Value: Down Slightly

The Baltimore Orioles
Brian Matusz | Left-Handed Pitcher
2010 Level: MLB
Age: 23

One of my early favorites for Rookie of the Year in the AL, Matusz has gone through some growing pains in 2010. His ERA currently sits at 5.08 (4.76 FIP) and he’s been an extreme fly-ball pitcher, as witnessed by his ground-ball rate of just 35.9%. Matusz’ four-pitch repertoire has helped him keep things together reasonable well for his rookie season but a lack of fastball command – as well as an inconsistent changeup – has hampered his development. Because he had limited time in the minors (19 career starts), the lefty is learning to pitch at the MLB level so there will probably be some bumps in the road in 2011, as well. Value: Even

Up Next: The NL West