Author Archive

Reviewing the ’09 First Round, part 2

Well, the 2010 draft is in the books and teams are now madly trying to sign their top picks. To celebrate the influx of new talent, we’re looking back to the first round of the ’09 draft and checking in on each player’s progress to date. Yesterday, we looked at the first 16 players chosen in the draft. Today, we’ll look at the final 16.

17. A.J. Pollock, OF, Arizona
Pollock jumped out to a solid start in his pro debut in ’09 at low-A ball but he’s projected to miss all of 2010 after hurting himself in spring training.

18. Chad James, LHP, Florida
James isn’t as flashy as some of the other ’09 prep pitchers, but he’s looked good in low-A ball. He has 42 strikeouts in 38.2 innings and has given up just 34 hits. Right-handers are hitting just .226 against him.

19. Shelby Miller, RHP, St. Louis
Miller has performed well in low-A with a limited pitch count, but he’s also been pretty inconsistent. He needs to be more efficient with his pitches, but he’s also a strikeout pitcher so those totals will always be high. Miller started out the year with very good ground-ball rates but he’s become more of a fly-ball pitcher lately.

20. Chad Jenkins, RHP, Toronto
The Jays organization has a new go-slow approach with its young players so Jenkins, 22, began the 2010 season in low-A. His performance has been somewhat underwhelming so far with 87 hits allowed in 79.1 innings of work. He also has 63 strikeouts. On the plus side, he’s issued just 13 walks and has a solid ground-ball rate (55%).

21. Jiovanni Mier, SS, Houston
Mier performed well in his debut in the Appy league in 2009, but he has slumped terribly this season and is batting just .199/.297/.252 in 226 at-bats. After hitting seven homers in his debut, he has yet to go deep in 2010. He’s also stolen just five bases in eight tries, after posting double-digit steals in ’09.

22. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Minnesota
Gibson began the year by dominating high-A ball with 33 hits and 12 walks allowed in 43.1 innings. The right-hander also had 40 strikeouts and a ground-ball rate of 68%. Moved up to double-A, his worm-burning rate is still good at 55%, but his strikeout rate has dropped and he’s given up 45 hits and 11 walks in 41.0 innings. Those are still good numbers, but they’re not quite as eye-popping.

23. Jared Mitchell, OF, Chicago AL
Like Pollock, Mitchell injured himself this spring and will miss the entire regular season.

24. Randal Grichuk, OF, Los Angeles AL
Earlier this season, Grichuk was having trouble living up to his solid debut numbers for ’09. He was hitting just .229/.280/.431 in 109 at-bats. Grichuk was then placed onto the disabled list in early May and hasn’t played since. He hurt his thumb and is expected back in early August.

25. Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles, AL
Trout has been one of the breakout players from the ’09 draft. He hit .360/.418/.506 in his debut in ’09 and is currently hitting .360/.440/.546 with 33 steals in 39 tries. The speedy outfielder also projects to have solid power. Take his career batting average with a grain of salt, though. His career BABIP is over .400 and should come down over time despite his good speed.

26. Eric Arnett, RHP, Milwaukee
Arnett has been a disappointment to this point. The 22-year-old pitcher has been demoted to short-season ball after allowing 70 hits and 20 walks in 56.1 low-A innings. Right-handers were hitting .340 against him.

27. Nick Franklin, SS, Seattle
Franklin has been a surprise star in low-A ball this season. The teenage shortstop is currently showing above-average power with 13 homers in 255 at-bats and he has a triple-slash line of .306/.350/.553. The switch-hitter also has double-digit steals and looks like a potential 20-20 player. On the downside, he has just 17 walks compared to 50 strikeouts.

28. Reymond Fuentes, OF, Boston
Fuentes has a respectable triple-slash line of .274/.322/.400 and 25 steals in 26 tries but he’s going to have to tweak his aggressive approach at the plate. The speedster has walked nine times with 54 strikeouts, which is not going to cut it for a lead-off hitter.

29. Slade Heathcott, OF, New York AL
Heathcott, 19, began the year in extended spring training but headed to low-A ball in June. He’s currently hitting .327/.397/.418 in 55 at-bats.

30. LeVon Washington, 2B/OF, Tampa Bay
Washington failed to sign with Tampa Bay and went to junior college, after failing to meet the academic requirements to attend a four-year college. The speedy player had an OK offensive season in junior college and was picked up by Cleveland in the second round of the ’10 draft.

31. Brett Jackson, OF, Chicago NL
After hitting .318 in his debut in ’09, Jackson has continued to perform well in ’10. At high-A ball, he currently has a triple-slash line of .292/.404/.451 in 233 at-bats. He has an impressive walk total at 41 but the strikeouts are dangerously high (61) for someone with gap power. Jackson has stolen 11 bases in 17 tries.

32. Tim Wheeler, OF, Colorado
Wheeler has posted modest numbers in 2010 at high-A ball. He’s currently hitting .253/.351/.394 with six homers and 12 steals in 62 games. The left-handed hitter is batting just .210 against southpaws.


Reviewing the ’09 First Round

Well, the 2010 draft is in the books and teams are now madly trying to sign their top picks. Let’s have a quick look back to the ’09 draft and see how all the first-round picks are making out. We’ll look at the first 16 players today (Thursday) and check out the final 16 on Friday.

1. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington
As you know, Mr. Strasburg is already in the Majors after dominating the high minors. He’s more than held his own with the Nationals and has given up a hit rate of just 4.38 H/9 through two starts while posting a strikeout rate of 16.05. And did I mention his fastball is sitting at 98 mph? Yeah, he’s pretty good.

2. Dustin Ackley, 2B, Seattle
Ackley got off to a much slower start than Strasburg and posted a batting average of just .147 in 20 April games. But the light switched on in May and he’s hit more than .300 since the end of April. His current triple-slash line is .252/.395/.374 in 206 at-bats in double-A.

3. Donavan Tate, OF, San Diego
The first-round curse continues for San Diego; the club’s best first-round picks in the last 10 years were Khalil Greene and Tim Stauffer. Tate has suffered through no fewer than three mild-to-serious injuries since signing and he has yet to make his debut, which was supposed to begin in low-A at the beginning of April.

4. Tony Sanchez, C, Pittsburgh
In terms of pure numbers, Sanchez has been one of the more successful ’09 first rounders. Currently in high-A, the catcher is angling for a promotion while hitting .311/.411/.439 with 16 doubles in 196 at-bats.

5. Matt Hobgood, RHP, Baltimore
Baltimore passed over more highly regarded prep arms to snag the cheaper Hobgood (in order to spread the draft budget around). The results haven’t been great in low-A. Hobgood has a 4.93 FIP and just 42 strikeouts in 64.1 innings. On the plus side, he has a solid ground-ball rate at 57%.

6. Zach Wheeler, RHP, San Francisco
Wheeler has flashed some very encouraging skills on the mound, but inconsistency and command continues to elude him. The right-hander has struck out a lot of batters, with 33 whiffed in 26.2 innings, but he’s also walked 17. His 61% ground-ball rate is also impressive. He’ll continue to move along slowly.

7. Mike Minor, LHP, Atlanta
Despite a poor record and high-ish ERA (both of which don’t tell you much about the quality of a minor league pitcher), Minor has had a very successful season. Improved secondary pitches, fastball velocity, and command have helped the Braves prospect to lead the Southern League in strikeouts. His ceiling has risen from the previously predicted No. 3 starter slot.

8. Mike Leake, RHP, Cincinnati
Like Strasburg, Leake is currently pitching in a big league starting rotation. What’s more impressive, though, is that he’s done it since the beginning of the 2010 season and never did pitch in the minors. Leake is nowhere near as dominating as the first overall pick, but he has a nice ground-ball rate of 51% and a respectable xFIP at 4.28.

9. Jacob Turner, RHP, Detroit
Often likened to Detroit’s ’08 first rounder Rick Porcello, Turner is not as advanced and will ascend through the minors at a much slower rate. He was derailed earler this season by injury (not serious) but has looked good since returning in May. He currently has a nice 2.88 FIP and has walked just eight batters in 48.1 innings of work.

10. Drew Storen, RHP, Washington
The Washington organization received great value with this unprotected pick (for failing to sign Aaron Crow in ’08). The right-handed reliever breezed through the minors and has already asserted himself in the Nats bullpen. He’s not a finished product just yet, though, and he has a 5.17 xFIP through 12 appearances.

11. Tyler Matzek, LHP, Colorado
Considered the best prep arm by many, Matzek slid to the Rockies due to perceived bonus demands. The club, though, got him signed rather easily. He did not make his pro debut until late May 2010 after signing late in ’09 and then spending extra time in extended spring training at the beginning of this season. Matzek has a 4.47 FIP and 27 Ks in 23.2 innings through five starts.

12. Aaron Crow, RHP, Kansas City
College pitchers take a real risk when they walk away from a large contract offer and head off to prove themselves in independent baseball. Crow has struggled since signing with KC, after following that route when he failed to sign with Washington as a first round pick in ’08. The right-hander currently has a 4.59 FIP and has struggled with his control (35 walks in 74.0 innings). His ground-ball rate is awesome at 71%.

13. Grant Green, SS, Oakland
Considered the top shortstop in the draft, Green has performed well in high-A ball this season. He’s currently hitting .310/.361/.455 in 268 at-bats. On the downside, Green has struck out a bit much (20% K rate) for his modest power output and it would be nice to see him be a little more patient at the plate (6.4% BB rate).

14. Matt Purke, LHP, Texas (Did Not Sign)
The success of Tanner Scheppers, a supplemental first round pick from ’09, has helped to lessen the sting of losing Purke, but Texas fans may want to look away now. Purke headed off to Texas Christian University in the fall of ’09 and has developed into a potential Top 5 pick (depending on his signability) for the 2011 draft, as he will be a somewhat rare draft-eligible sophomore. This season as a freshman, Purke posted a 3.37 FIP with 81 hits allowed, a walk rate of 2.55 BB/9, and a strikeout rate of 11.52 K/9 in 95.1 innings.

15. Alex White, RHP, Cleveland
Cleveland hasn’t had a ton of luck drafting college pitchers in the past few years but it looks to have scored with White. The right-hander posted a 3.96 FIP and 1.15 WHIP in eight high-A starts before moving up to double-A. At the higher level, he has a 4.52 FIP and 0.88 WHIP in five games.

16. Bobby Borchering, 3B, Arizona
Supplemental first round pick, and fellow prep third baseman, Matt Davidson has had more statistical success so far, but don’t count out Borchering. The 19-year-old prospect is holding his own in low-A with a triple-slash line of .252/.321/.395 in 238 at-bats.


Hot Prospects at the Hot Corner

With news that Pedro Alvarez could be in Pittsburgh within a week, it’s time to start considering candidates for the new No. 1 third base prospect in the minors. Below are five third basemen (plus two bonus prospects) that have been performing well.

Mike Moustakas | Kansas City: Some could argue that Moustakas is already a better prospect than Alvarez. The former No. 1 pick has been on fire this season despite missing much of April due to injury. The left-handed hitter is currently batting .339/.416/.678 with 14 homers in 45 double-A games. Moustakas has been a real run producer in the minors with 54 RBI in 45 games, and a 1.531 OPS with runners in scoring position. He is, though, hitting just .250 in June. If Moustakas can stick at the hot corner, he could be a real stud for the organization. If not, things could get crowded in the outfield.

Miguel Sano | Minnesota: Let’s slide all the way down to the Dominican Summer League where we can find the 17-year-old Sano. One of the top international signees in ’09, the right-handed hitter is holding his own with a triple-slash line of .314/.405/.600 through 11 games. The 6’3” teenager is showing above-average power for his age and even has five walks, which shows good patience for the level he’s playing at. Sano will be stateside before you know it.

Matt Dominguez | Florida: The former 12th-overall pick from the ’07 draft is not lighting the world on fire, but he’s been performing well. Dominguez may never hit for a high average but the above-average fielder is showing good pop with 19 doubles and nine homers. He has a triple-slash line of .247/.322/.455 in 231 at-bats. Keep in mind that Dominguez is still just 20 and playing in double-A.

Matt Davidson | Arizona: One of my personal favorites, Davidson was a supplemental first round pick out of a California high school in ’09. He received a lot of attention after hitting .354/.393/.500 in April but he struck out 21 times with just one walk. The adjustments he’s made since then are nothing short of amazing. Davidson then walked 13 times in May (but with 33 strikeouts) and has since followed that up with seven walks and just six strikeouts through 11 June games. Overall, he’s hitting .302/.380/.502 with good pop in 225 at-bats. What you have here is a smart, coachable player.

Cody Overbeck | Philadelphia: It’s hard to know exactly what the organization has with Overbeck. An over-ager at 24 and in high-A ball, the former University of Mississippi player was also repeating the level for the second straight year. He hit .302/.380/.553 with 11 homers in 215 at-bats. He also significantly improved both his strikeout and walk rates. Overbeck was promoted to double-A recently and made his debut on June 14. Keep an eye on him, as the second half of the minor league season will speak volumes in regards to his future potential.

AL Bonus: Keep an eye on Will Middlebrooks. A 2007 fifth-round pick out of a Texas high school, Boston gave him big money to keep him away from Texas A&M, where he would have played football, as well. He’s currently hitting .286/.360/.432 in 220 high-A at-bats after moving rather slowly during his first three pro seasons. He has very good raw power (18 doubles) but has yet to turn that into over-the-fence pop. Middlebrooks is still learning to identify and hit breaking balls. The 21-year-old has slowed down in June and is batting just .188 for the month.

NL Bonus: Recently known for developing pitching talent, the Rockies organization has some impressive hitters in the minors, too. Third baseman Nolan Arenado began the year in extended spring training but he’s been on fire since being activated in low-A ball. The 19-year-old is hitting .337/.367/.517 through 21 games. He’s also struck out just nine times. More than a third of his hits have been doubles (11 of 30). Arenado was a second round draft pick out of a California high school in ’09.


Meet the Most Talented Rotation in the Minors

The Atlanta Braves organization has a history of developing talented pitchers. After a lull over the past few seasons – which still resulted in the emergence of Tommy Hanson – the assembly line is running at full speed once again. And if you’re interested in finding the most talented starting rotation in all of minor league baseball, all you have to do is throw on your flip-flops and some swimming trunks and head on down to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. There you’ll find Randall Delgado, Julio Teheran, Arodys Vizcaino, and J.J. Hoover.

Pre-season Braves Top 10 prospect ranking by FanGraphs in parentheses.

Randall Delgado, RHP (6)
The 20-year-old right-hander has had little trouble with hitters in the Carolina League. In the league, Delgado is currently first in innings pitched, strikeouts, WHIP and second in ERA. He’s given up just 59 hits in 78.0 innings. He’s also shown exceptional control with just 17 walks issued to go along with 87 strikeouts. Right-handed batters are hitting .201 against him. The Panama native has an overpowering fastball that sits in the 90-95 mph range, and he also has a 54% ground-ball rate. That is a killer combination. Delgado’s repertoire also includes a plus curveball and a change-up.

Julio Teheran, RHP (3)
Just 19, this Columbia native began the year in low-A ball but dominated the competition with a 1.14 ERA (2.68 FIP) and .168 average-allowed. Moved up to Myrtle Beach in high-A ball, Teheran currently has a 1.69 ERA (2.16 FIP) with 29 hits and just five walks allowed in 32.0 innings. He’s also struck out 37 batters. He’s still working on becoming more consistent, but Teheran has been absolutely dominating at times with 12 strikeouts in one performance (7.0 IP) and 14 in another (8.0). The right-hander is more of a fly-ball pitcher and has a ground-ball rate of 40%. His repertoire includes an 89-94 mph fastball, curveball and change-up. Teheran is not quite as durable as Delgado and has dealt with some shoulder woes in the past.

Arodys Vizcaino, RHP (4)
The key to the Javier Vazquez deal (wouldn’t New York fans like this one back?), Vizcaino has broken out in a big way this season. The 19-year-old is not quite as projectable (6’0” 190 lbs) as Delgado and Teheran, but he has an advanced feel for pitching given his age. The right-hander began the year in low-A ball and walked just nine batters in 69.1 innings. He also added 66 strikeouts and allowed 60 hits. His FIP was 2.29 (2.34 ERA). Like Teheran, Vizcaino gets a fair number of fly-ball outs and he produced a ground-ball rate of 40%. Moved up to high-A recently, Vizcaino has made just one start and he gave up four runs on eight hits and a walk in 4.0 innings. His repertoire includes an 89-94 mph fastball, plus curveball and change-up.

J.J. Hoover, RHP (11)
Hoover was the player pushed off of the FanGraphs’ Top 10 prospect list for the Braves when Vizcaino was acquired from the Yankees. Hoover was a 10th round draft pick out of a small community college during the 2008 draft. His stuff is not as electric as the other three pitchers on this list, but he commands his pitches and shows good control for his experience level. Hoover’s repertoire includes an 88-92 mph fastball, good change-up and curveball. The right-hander has given up 70 hits and 19 walks in 69.0 innings of work this season. He’s also struck out 53 batters. It would probably benefit him to improve his average ground-ball rate up into the 50-60% range, as he works up in the zone a little too much. That could come back to haunt him at higher levels of professional baseball.

The Myrtle Beach club also features a couple other interesting names to remember. Both Zeke Spruill and Cole Rohrbough have displayed solid potential in the past but inconsistencies and injuries have slowed their ascent through the minors. Both are currently on the disabled list after having struggled earlier in the year. Spruill came into ’10 as the No. 7 prospect on the team’s Top 10 list and was a second round draft pick out of a Georgia high school in ’08. Rohrbough zoomed up the prospect chart after a solid debut season in ’07 but has been unable to duplicate that success in subsequent seasons.


Carlos Santana Catches on with Cleveland

Don’t look now Dodger fans, but the ghost of the Casey Blake trade of 2008 is coming back to haunt.

Blake was traded from the Cleveland Indians to the Los Angeles Dodgers at mid-season in a deal that had me scratching my head from the moment in was announced. In return for Blake, the Indians received breakout prospect Carlos Santana and minor league reliever Jonathan Meloan. Perhaps the Dodgers did not feel that the catcher’s success was for real and was a result of playing in the potent California League.

Blake was by no means a terrible acquisition for the Dodgers. The veteran third baseman has accumulated 6.7 WAR during his less than two full seasons in Los Angeles. He produced the third highest WAR (4.6) amongst NL third basemen in ’09, and the seventh highest in the Majors. However, he’ll turn 37 years old this season and was, at the time of the trade, and impending free agent (who was later re-signed to a three-year, $17.5 million contract that also has an option for 2012).

Santana, on the other hand, has the chance to be one of the top offensive catchers in the American League for quite some time. Now we’re not talking Joe Mauer (8 WAR) good, but think Victor Martinez or Brian McCann good (4-5 WAR a year).

Less than two weeks ago, Indians GM Mark Shapiro was asked about a potential Santana promotion and he told a local Cleveland newspaper:

“While he continues to flourish offensively, defensively he continues to be a work in progress,” said Shapiro. “His offensive ability is so strong that we feel it’s important to utilize every day possible in the minor leagues to develop his defense. His game calling and leadership have made strides, but his throwing has to improve.”

I’m not sure what changed in eight days, or if it was just a smoke screen, but Santana will make his MLB debut tonight against Washington. Shapiro’s stated concerns about the young catcher’s defense are justified. He’s a converted fielder who has only been behind the dish since 2007 after spending much of his time in the outfield and at third base prior to the move. Over the past three seasons, Santana’s caught-stealing success rate has been 23%, 30%, and 23% so far this season in triple-A. Between ’07 and ’09, he allowed 45 passed balls but had given up just one so far this season, which suggests some improvement in the area of receiving. Santana has also reportedly improved his game-calling skills.

On offense, there is little to not like. At the time of his promotion, he had an OPS of 1.044 and his triple-slash line was .316/.447/.597 in 196 at-bats. Santana also currently has a walk rate of 18% and an ISO rate of .280, so he’s displayed both patience and power. Those rates are not out of line with what he’s posted over the past three seasons. The 24-year-old switch-hitter also does a nice job of limiting his strikeouts and his rate currently sits at 16%. It’s not often that you find a catcher that hits for power and strikes out less than he walks (and can hit more than .300).

In his career, he’s been very good against both right-handed and left-handed pitching. He has a career OPS of .960 against lefties and .879 against righties. A pitcher cannot take his eye off of Santana on the base paths, either. The catcher has gone 18-for-24 in stolen base attempts over the past three seasons.

Fellow rookie Lou Marson, obtained from Philly last year in the Cliff Lee trade, was demoted to triple-A to make room for Santana. Former Minnesota Twin and Florida Marlin Mike Redmond will continue to serve as the back-up in Cleveland. Marson, 24, did himself no favors by hitting .191/.268/.262 with a .253 wOBA in 141 at-bats.

With the promotion of Santana, we have now seen the majority of top 2009-10 prospects reach the Majors. Here is FanGraphs’ Top 10 prospects list, which was released prior to the 2010 season.

1. Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves
2. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington Nationals
3. Desmond Jennings, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
4. Mike Stanton, OF, Florida Marlins
5. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants
6. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Texas Rangers
7. Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland Indians
8. Jesus Montero, C/1B, New York Yankees
9. Domonic Brown, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
10. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates

As you can see, six of the 10 players are now in the Majors. Of those still in the minors, Brown could be the next prospect called up, if Philly can find room for him. If not, then Alvarez could beat him to The Show. Either way, a lot of talent has already been promoted to the Majors this season and the Top 100 prospects list is going to have a real different look to it in 2011.


The Amateur Draft: Why Not Have Two?

There has been a lot of discussion over the past year about the logistics of turning the June amateur draft into an international affair, which would include players from around the world and would eliminate international free agency. The idea is valid, but the best route to take is to create two separate drafts; this would leave the June draft as is, and create another draft solely for the world prospects.

This draft would be held during either the otherwise-boring General Managers Meeting in November, or the increasingly boring Winter Meetings. At one point, the amateur draft actually featured three separate drafts in one year and, as recently had 1986, had two drafts (January and June) – so this is not an entirely out-of-left-field idea. By having the draft in November or December, it would allow teams the opportunity to disperse scouting staffs from college and high school stadiums, to parks in the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Australia, Europe, etc.

Major League Baseball would have to take a huge lead in this venture, obviously, which could include the creation of an MLB International Scouting Bureau. Each year, players would have to submit applications to be eligible for drafting considerations. It would be done early enough for Major League Baseball to run background checks on players to prove their identities and ages. To help teams scout players, showcases and tournaments would be held in various locations so scouts and executives can see the players perform against similarly skilled talent. Teams could certainly do their own scouting, as well.

As for draft order, the flawed and archaic Elias Rankings (or perhaps something a little more accurate) could continue to be used for the June draft. For the world draft, teams would be awarded a pre-determined value for each of their free agents, such as 4 WAR for a Type-A free agent, 2 WAR for a Type-A and 0.5 WAR for a Type-C. If the St. Louis Cardinals, for example, had four free agents, including one A, two B and one C, then their accumulated value would be 8.5 WAR. The team with the highest total would draft first, and so on.

If two or more teams were to end up with the same total, the order would be decided amongst those teams based on the accumulated service time that each free agent had for their team. So a player obtained at the July trade deadline would have much less value than a player with 10 years of service time with the same club. This system would allow a much different draft order for the world draft. If you wanted to change it up a bit, the draft ranking could instead be based on the previous year’s free agent crop, to take into consideration the players that actually left via free agency, rather than the current year where some players may actually be re-signed by their respective clubs.

Another option to the standard draft order process would be to have it as an auction-style draft, where everyone has a legitimate shot at signing each player, assuming they’re willing to pay the big bucks. This would also, theoretically, help control the bonuses handed out.

To be honest, I can’t really think of any negatives that would be associated with having two separate drafts, aside from the increase in costs for teams (scouting staffs, travel) and Major League Baseball (administration, etc.). From a logistics standpoint, creating a separate draft would be much easier than trying to re-vamp the current amateur draft, which seems to work fairly well (bonus demands aside).


Top 10s Revisited: NL West

With clubs set to infuse more talent into their systems this week, and with being two months into the minor league season, it’s a great time to take a quick look at how the Top 10 prospects are doing in each system. Today, we’ll wrap up the series with a look at the National League West. Previously, we looked at the AL East, the NL East, the AL Central, the NL Central, and AL West.

*The Top 10 lists originally appeared in FanGraphs’ Second Opinion fantasy guide published in March.

San Diego Padres

Castro has dominated a good-hitting, double-A league. The right-hander has produced good ground-ball numbers and has been quite consistent. Forsythe has recovered from a slow start, which was made worse by a trip to the disabled list. Darnell, Decker, and Williams have all had their struggles, while Tate continues to deal with a plethora of injuries that have stalled his career. Luebke joins Castro as a rare bright spot on this list. His season didn’t get started until May 24 due to an injury, but he’s given up just four hits in 12.1 innings.

San Francisco Giants

It’s been a pretty “meh” season on the farm in the San Francisco Giants’ system. Eight players are currently treading water and really haven’t done much to move their value upwards. The exception, of course, is Posey, who finally earned a call-up to the Majors. He could have an impact on the NL West race. On the other end of the spectrum, 2009 draft pick – and fellow catcher – Joseph has struggled down in low-A ball. He’s hitting just .193 against right-handed pitching, which isn’t going to cut it if he hopes to play regularly.

Colorado Rockies

Friedrich hasn’t been overly sharp this season, although he’s battled some health issues. Chacin has stepped into the MLB rotation and has looked very good. Matzek opened the season in extended spring training, but he then moved up to low-A ball and has looked quite good. Rosario recovered from a bit of a slow start and has shown some unexpected pop with seven homers in 37 games; his career high in bombs is 12. Brothers, a 2009 draft pick, has looked strong in the high-A bullpen and could be a fast mover. Wheeler’s numbers can be categorized as good, but not great.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Prospect rating is definitely not an exact science: you win some and you lose some each year. This Top 10 list was the most controversial of the 30 I did in 2009 — mainly because I preferred Martin, Lambo, and Lindblom to Withrow. Well, it looks like I swung and missed on that assessment. Lambo was hitting well before his suspension, but Lindblom really took a step back this year. If I am going to take something positive from this list, I should focus on the fact that I was the only one to rank Ely in the Top 10 out of The Big Five, which includes Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, John Sickels, and Keith Law. The organization surprised a lot of people when it jumped Gordon over high-A and moved him directly from low-A to double-A. He’s hitting for an OK average, although his OPS is just .658. Webster and Miller are very exciting young arms.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The top of the list is hurting a bit with Parker still not back from Tommy John surgery and Allen looking for his offense at triple-A. The club is reaping the benefits from a very strong ’09 draft with good performances from Borchering, Belfiore, Owings, Krauss, and especially Davidson. Earlier in the year, the latter player was hitting very well but not taking many walks; he made an adjustment and has walked 11 times in his last 10 games. (He has a total of 18 walks in 54 games). Fellow ’09 draftee Pollock, who was actually the club’s second pick (17th overall, one pick after Borchering), is out for the year with an injury. Gillespie and Cowgill look like they could help out at the MLB level as future fourth outfielders.


Top 10s Revisited: AL West

With clubs set to infuse more talent into their systems next week, and now being two months into the minor league season, it’s a great time to take a quick look at how the Top 10 prospects are doing in each system. Today, we’ll take a look at the American League West. So far we’ve looked at the AL East, the NL East, the AL Central, and the NL Central.

*The Top 10 lists originally appeared in FanGraphs’ Second Opinion fantasy guide published in March.

Oakland Athletics

Carter and Taylor have been mild disappointments in triple-A so far this season. Cardenas’ bat has completely disappeared and he’s got an OPS of .595 in triple-A right now. Weeks, though, has picked things up and has looked good. He’s doing a little bit of everything right now in double-A. His future double-play partner, Green, is also performing well one level down. The shortstop, though, has 56 strikeouts in 54 games despite modest power potential. Stassi has shown some pop in his bat with seven homers, but he too is struggling with the Ks: 62 in 47 games.

Los Angeles Angels

Trout continues to tear apart low-A ball and has a BABIP-fueled .371 batting average. He’s also nabbed 30 bases in 34 tries; he’s even showing some patience at the plate. For interest’s sake, fellow ’09 draft pick Grichuk (who’s not on the Top 10 list) has had a rougher go in low-A ball and he’s currently on the disabled list. Their teammate Martinez has 79 strikeouts in 54.1 innings pitched, but he’s also walked 41 batters. Similarly, and one level up, Chatwood has 58 strikeouts and an outstanding ground-ball rate but he’s walked 32 batters in 60.1 innings. Conger has hit pretty well in triple-A, although his power numbers are down and he’s batting just .175 as a right-handed hitter.

Texas Rangers

Feliz has asserted himself as one of the top closers in the American League despite his youth. You could look at this as a negative, if you’re like me and think he should be getting stretched out in triple-A right about now with an eye on becoming a starter. Smoak has had less success in Majors but the club appears committed to him at first base. The bottom half of the Top 10 list is treading water right now, with the exception of Ross. The young lefty is showing a respectable strikeout rate along with a very good ground-ball rate; he has yet to give up a homer this season in 64.1 innings of work. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that Scheppers could see some MLB action in 2010.

Seattle Mariners

After a very slow start, Ackley is back. The infielder rebounded from a terrible April when he hit just .147. He bumped his average up to .303 in May and is hitting .444 in his last 10 games with 13 walks and just two strikeouts. The overall Top 10 list has been pretty uninspiring to this point, outside of Franklin and Pineda. The shortstop is enjoying his first taste of full-season ball with an unexpected power outburst (12 homers) and a .959 OPS in low-A ball. Pineda is giving up more fly balls than usual but he also has 63 strikeouts in 57.1 innings of work. He’s allowed more than two runs in a start just once this season in 10 games.


Top 10s Revisited: NL Central

With clubs set to infuse more talent into their systems next week, and with being two months into the minor league season, it’s a great time to take a quick look at how the Top 10 prospects are doing in each system. Today, we’ll take a look at the National League Central. So far we’ve looked at the AL East, the NL East, and the AL Central.

*The Top 10 lists originally appeared in FanGraphs’ Second Opinion fantasy guide published in March.

St. Louis Cardinals

The club is receiving outstanding contributions from its rookies in 2010: Garcia and Freese. Both are definitely in the running for Rookie of the Year in the National League. Miller is off to a respectable start in low-A. He has a very good strikeout rate but he remains quite inconsistent, which is not unexpected. Lynn has moved up to triple-A with little trouble. Sanchez is an intriguing arm currently at double-A, while Descalso looks like he might develop into a useful utility player in the Majors.

Cincinnati Reds

The club’s 2009 draft and international signings are already paying off in a big way. Leake is one of the top rookies in the Majors, while Chapman is looking good in triple-A and Boxberger is cruising through high-A ball. Alonso, the club’s No. 1 draft pick from ’08, has reached triple-A but his numbers are modest through 21 games. Frazier has taken a pretty big step backward, and you have to wonder how much all the position changing has affected him. The club has nice pitching depth with Wood and Maloney both near MLB ready.

Chicago Cubs

I took a bit of a gamble by ranking Cashner as the No. 1 prospect in the system but it’s not looking too crazy now, as he really broke out this season and was recently promoted to the Majors. Castro is also contributing to the big league club right now and has looked good. Vitters is up to double-A but his lack of patience at the plate continues to prevent him from really breaking out. Jackson has thrown well in triple-A but – like Cashner – the organization moved him from the starting rotation to the bullpen at triple-A for a little while. The members of the lower half of the Top 10 list are pretty much treading water in 2010.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Both Alvarez and Lincoln have held their own in triple-A this season, but neither one has really stepped up his game to force the organization into making a move. Sanchez continues to hit well as a pro and could conceivably move up to double-A at some point this season. Tabata has recaptured a lot of his prospect value by embracing more of a “small ball” approach. He’s one stolen base shy of his career high and it’s just June 4. The club has to be pretty excited about the potential of two left-handed starters: Locke and Owens. Marte, who’s currently hurt, has also taken a step forward in his development this season.

Milwaukee Brewers

Escobar is having a respectable rookie season in the Majors but his lack of steals definitely takes a bite out of his value. Lawrie has had a bit of an up-and-down season in double-A but he’s young for the level and the organization has been aggressive with him. Gamel has battled injuries and is just starting to heat up. The middle of the Top 10 list has really made some strides this season. Braddock is pitching out of the Brewers’ bullpen and Lucroy is also on the MLB squad. Odorizzi, a supplemental first round pick from ’08, is enjoying his first taste of full-season ball with 60 strikeouts in 46.2 innings. Heckathorn has exceeded my expectations and then some with a very good showing in low-A. The knock on him has always been his inability to overpower hitters despite very good stuff but it looks like the Brewers’ minor league coaching staff has done a great job with the ’09 supplemental first round pick. The club’s No. 1 pick from ’09, Arnett, has struggled.

Houston Astros

Castro got off to a slow start in 2010 but he’s really turning his season around now. The name to really watch in this system, though, is Lyles. The 19 year old is more than holding his own in double-A with 58 hits and 13 walks allowed in 63.1 innings. He’s struck out 52 batters. That’s not bad at all for a kid that was skipped over high-A ball. Another arm, Bushue, has also taken a step forward in 2010. Outside of Castro, the most interesting bat to watch in the system is Austin, although it’s hard to know how much of an impact Lancaster is having on his numbers. He still needs a lot of work to improve his SB success rate; he’s also batting just .190 against southpaws.


Top 10s Revisited: AL Central

With clubs set to infuse more talent into their systems next week, and with being two months into the minor league season, it’s a great time to take a quick look at how the Top 10 prospects are doing in each system. Today, we’ll take a look at the American League Central. So far we’ve looked at the AL East and the NL East.

*The Top 10 lists originally appeared in FanGraphs’ Second Opinion fantasy guide published in March.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins Top 10 list is a little thin on “can’t miss talent” but that’s what you get when you draft and sign a lot of high-risk, high-reward players. Hicks and Gibson are the cream of the crop in this system, while Ramos has turned himself into an interesting trading chip. Valencia has hit for a good batting average in triple-A but his power has dried up, which definitely hurts the value of a third base prospect. Benson was recently demoted from double-A to high-A but he’s still young so you definitely don’t want to give up on him.

Detroit Tigers

The organization made a couple of aggressive promotional moves with its 2009 draft picks. Oliver’s assignment to double-A has proven fruitful, while Fields’ overly-aggressive assignment to high-A has not really panned out. I’m not sure why the club felt justified in skipping the raw 19-year-old with no pro experience over low-A… A number of prospects on this list have seen their values diminished by injuries: Crosby, Strieby, and Satterwhite.

Chicago White Sox

On the cusp of a MLB promotion, Flowers’ bat has suddenly wilted under the pressure. Danks and Retherford are also struggling, but Hudson has rebounded from a slow start. Mitchell, the club’s top pick from ’09, will miss the entire season due to injury. Viciedo is hitting fairly well despite the lack of discipline at the plate and Morel was recently promoted to triple-A. All-in-all it’s been a bit of a disappointing season so far for the club’s top prospects.

Cleveland Indians

The Indians club entered the year with one of the deepest systems, even though its Top 10 list is not oozing with “can’t miss talent.” Santana has not been fazed by triple-A and he should be in the Majors soon. White, like the Twins’ Kyle Gibson, has really moved quickly and looks like a great No. 1 draft choice. Chisenhall has performed OK but not great. Hagadone was recently promoted to double-A.

Kansas City Royals

You don’t often hear this, but: It’s good to be the Kansas City Royals. The club has seen the biggest improvement amongst its Top 10 prospects… probably in the entire Major Leagues. Montgomery, Moustakas, and Hosmer have all taken big steps forward in their collective development. Duffy, who retired at the start of the season, has just returned to the club. Myers has looked good early on in low-A, and Lough has continued his ’09 success at triple-A in 2010. We can only hope Ka’aihue is used in a trade at some point this season.