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Organizational Rankings: Future Talent – Arizona

The organization has not had the results over the past five years at the MLB level that it would have liked. However, there is good news for the fan base. The club is developing some exciting talent – especially on offense.

The club’s youth movement is led by 22-year-old outfielder Justin Upton, who posted a wOBA of .388 in ’09. He was also a 20-20 player who batted .300. Add in his defensive value and he’s one of the brightest young stars in the game. Fellow outfielder Chris Young is loaded with potential but the 26 year old was demoted to triple-A in ’09 and hit just .212/.311/.400 in 433 MLB at-bats. With that said, he’s already has one big league season with 30+ homers to his credit. Gerardo Parra, 22, received unexpected playing time in the Diamondbacks outfield in ’09 thanks to the injury to Conor Jackson and Young’s ineffectiveness. Parra posted a .313 wOBA and hit a soft .290 but he has a lot of potential.

On the left side of the infield, third baseman Mark Reynolds is just 26 and he slammed 44 homers and stole 24 bases last season. Stephen Drew recently turned 27 and he’s looking to finally tap into his star potential, but time is running out. Behind the plate, Miguel Montero, 26, took advantage of an injury to Chris Snyder to seize the full-time catching gig. The club will employ a veteran one-year gap at first base in Adam LaRoche but prospect Brandon Allen could be knocking on the door by mid-season.

Although technically a veteran, starter Edwin Jackson is just 26 and he was acquired this past off-season from the Detroit Tigers and provides excellent value as a No. 3 starter. The club also acquired Ian Kennedy from the Yankees and he has a good chance of developing into a solid National League hurler.

The club has had a few down years with the draft in recent seasons, which has led to little or no depth in the upper minors. The club has also traded away a number of prospects in an effort to “win now.” The club’s top prospect and 2007 1st round pick – Jarrod Parker – will miss much of the 2010 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in ’09. There is a light at the end of the tunnel for the player development staff. The club had seven picks before the third round of the 2009 amateur draft and the club did not go cheap. It also nabbed a few interesting over-slot players in later rounds.

General manager Josh Byrnes certainly appears to have this organization headed in the right direction. Scouting director Tom Allison returns for his fourth season and he’ll look to build off of his ’09 draft, albeit with fewer premium picks. Former farm director A.J. Hinch graduated to manager in ’09 and he was replaced by Mike Berger, who will continue overseeing the prospects in 2010.

The puzzle is not quite finished but the organization is getting closer and closer to the goal of being a force to be reckoned with in the National League.


Organizational Rankings: Future Talent – Baltimore

If you’re looking for talented and promising pitching then you’ve come to the right place. This organization can certainly challenge the Rays for the best pitching prospects in the American League East (if not the entire league). The club has recently graduated Chris Tillman, Jason Berken, Brad Bergesen, and David Hernandez with mixed success.

At just 21 years of age, Tillman has the highest ceiling – that of a No. 1 if all goes well – of the quartet. The right-hander posted a 6.10 FIP in 12 big league starts in ’09 but it was a year of learning, which he should be all the stronger for in 2010. Bergesen is a back-of-the-rotation warrior with modest stuff, a promising sinker and good ground-ball rate (50%). Hernandez flashes some of the nastiest stuff on the staff but his below-average command led to negative values on all his pitches (including the 93 mph fastball). Berken is most likely a long-term reliever and fringe Major Leaguer.

Ready to contribute full-time in 2010 is Brian Matusz, who made eight big league starts in ’09 but managed to hold on to his rookie eligibility. The lefty could rival Tillman for the No. 1 man in the rotation within the next few years. The club also has some promising arms in Zach Britton, Jake Arrieta, and Brandon Erbe. Kam Mickolio and Troy Patton have potential, as well, and the former has a shot at being the club’s closer of the future.

At the plate and in the field, the club acquired a promising third baseman from the Dodgers last season in Josh Bell. He should be ready to take over the position from Miguel Tejada by 2011, if not sooner. Across the diamond we find Brandon Snyder, a sweet-swinging first baseman (and former catcher) with fringe-average power for the position. The minor league hitting depth is not as impressive as the pitching, but the club does have some promising, young players in the Majors.

Matt Wieters has the potential to be an absolute star behind the dish and the 23-year-old hitter posted a .330 wOBA in his 96-game debut. He has much more to offer. The club also has an exciting, young outfield with the likes of Nolan Reimold (age 26), Adam Jones (24), and Nick Markakis (26). The slick-fielding Michael Aubrey is already 27 but he’s appeared in just 46 MLB games and could be a late bloomer thanks to injuries.

The club nabbed some interesting prospects in the ’09 draft in shortstop Mychal Givens and left-hander Cameron Coffey. The club toed the line a bit in ’09 (at least by going inexpensive in the first round before collecting quite a few over-slot players) after spending big dollars on Matusz and Wieters in recent years.

The organization has done a nice job of drafting in recent years, especially in the pitching department and when the organization was not afraid to spend a little money. Players like Bell, Jones, and Tillman were brought in through smart trades. General manager Andy MacPhail continues to entrust scouting director Joe Jordan (entering his six season) and farm director David Stockstill (third) with overseeing the club’s young flock of players. After all, if it ain’t broke, why fix it?


A New Approach to the Fifth Starter

As we saw yesterday in my introductory post, there is really is no point in wasting time and resources trying to enter the season with five starters earmarked for 25+ starts. No. 5 starters, in the traditional sense, just don’t exist. The best bet is to focus on securing four starters that can make 24 starts or more. In the fifth spot in the rotation, a three-man job-share could then be developed and it would break down like this:

1. A long reliever who would serve as the seventh arm in the ‘pen and be expected to make eight to 10 starts on the year. Ideally, this would be a proven veteran who could stick at the MLB level all season.

2. A pitching prospect that projects to be a fringe No. 3 or 4 with two or three minor league options remaining. He would be introduced to the Majors in this low-pressure role over the next two to three seasons before officially (hopefully) graduating to the role of a reliable third or fourth starter. In this role, the pitcher would need to make about 10 starts at the MLB level each season.

3. A minor league “veteran” pitcher (somewhere in the 25-30 year old range) who has been unable to stick in the Majors – and still has at least one minor league option left – and can be relied on to make at least five starts on the season.

Let’s use a real team (The Toronto Blue Jays) to flesh out this example.
No. 1 starter: Ricky Romero
No. 2 starter: Shaun Marcum
No. 3 starter: Marc Rzepczynski
No. 4 starter: Brett Cecil

The job-share in the fifth spot would include:
1. Brian Tallet, as the long-man (0 options)
2. Brad Mills, as the prospect (2 options)
3. Lance Broadway, as the minor-league vet (1 option)

If all goes well, we can expect this group to make 23 starts out of the fifth spot, which more than most teams can hope for… and it leaves a little room to exceed expectation if one pitcher performs better than expected. But we should also have a safeguard because injuries and other unexpected situations always arise. In triple-A, Toronto would have a reliever capable of going 3-4 innings (Sean Stidfole, 3 options) to replace Tallet, along with two emergency starters that could fill in to replace Mills (Rey Gonzalez, 3 options) and Broadway (Randy Boone, 3 options).

This may seem like a lot of moving parts or a lot of resources to tie up in this situation but we know that a team is going to struggle to find five reliable starters each season (four will be tough to find for some), so it makes sense to plan ahead. Seven teams used 10 or more starters each that made 23 or fewer starts last season. Most of those pitchers will filling in the gap in the fifth hole in the rotation.

The best part of the Jays plan above, is the cost efficiency. Tallet will make $2 million in 2010 for his role as a spot starter and long man out of the bullpen. Mills and Broadway would make just over the minimum MLB salary when in the Majors, while the other three pitchers – if needed – would make exactly the minimum. In other words, you’d be filling a minimum of 23 starts on the year for less than $3 million. As well, by ensuring that everyone but Tallet has options remaining, the club will not risk losing any of these players in 2010.

Obviously this plan is not going to score a team 20 quality starts, so the goal would be to expect a league-average perform from the job-share when the 23 starts are averaged out. Even so, that’s solid value for less than $3 million. And if a significant injury strikes Tallet, Mills or Broadway, it’s not a catastrophic situation; you can have the other two pitchers pick up the slack, or bring up one of your back-ups. If you look at some of the pitching performances received from fill-in starters or supposed “No. 5 starters,” you find that the performances are most often well below league average. Scrambling to fill starts can also result in throwing millions of dollars at pitchers like Sidney Ponson to make five or six disappointing starts before a release is mercifully made.

So, to recap… This job-share plan is good because…
A) The inevitable pitching injuries will have a lesser (negative) impact
B) It will help train young pitchers for an eventual larger role
C) It’s cost efficient

It’s at least worth a try because we know the currently model is flawed for most – if not all – clubs.


Fifth Starters Don’t Exist

We read a lot of scouting reports and hear people comment that a pitcher’s potential is that of a No. 5 starter. Teams spend millions of dollars and thousands of hours crunching data to build a successful five-man rotation, but it’s all in vain. The truth of the matter is that these mythical creatures don’t actually exist.

If we look back to the 2009 season, only two teams had five starters on their pitching staffs that made 24 or more starts: the Chicago Cubs and the Colorado Rockies.

  • All 30 teams had at least one pitcher make 24 or more starts.
  • Twenty-six teams had two pitchers make 24 or more starts.
  • Then the number drops to 22 teams that had three pitchers make 24 or more starts.
  • Then we hit a cliff. Only nine teams were able to rely on four pitchers to make 24 or more starts.

    This may not be the most scientific way to look at the situation, but it’s quick and dirty and gets the point across. Only about a third of the teams in Major League Baseball had four reliable starters. Less than 10% of teams could make a claim that they actually had a “No. 5 starter” last season. Sure, you could say that some of these teams had another “quality guy” earmarked for the No. 5 role but injuries created the gap. But we know injuries in the starting rotation are inevitable each season, so it makes sense to start planning for that likely scenario. San Diego, Washington, Seattle and Cleveland could not even claim to have a No. 2 starter. Each of those four organizations had just one starter that made more than 24 starts on the season.

    Every season, most of the teams in baseball scramble to fill holes in their starting rotations and most of the headaches come from trying to fill the gaping hole in the fifth spot in the rotation. In ’09, seven teams used 10 or more pitchers to fill the black holes in their starting rotations.

    Tomorrow, I will suggest a new approach that some teams might want to consider for their starting rotations.

    * * *

    For interest’s sake, here are some other articles discussing No. 5 starters:
    1. A classic by Jeff Sackman from December 2006
    2. R.J. Anderson touching on the subject at FanGraphs
    3. FanGrapher Matthew Carruth discussing the issue at Lookout Landing
    4. Chuck Brownson tying it all together at The Hardball Times

    I’m sure there are other interesting articles on the subject… and these were just the tip of the iceberg that I discovered.


  • Organizational Rankings: Future Talent – Florida

    The Florida Marlins club seems to be in a perpetual rebuilding mode. There will be few veterans to be found on the field for the club in 2010: John Baker (29), Dan Uggla (30), Jorge Cantu (28), and Cody Ross (29) are the old men of the group. Other starters – all under the age of 27 – include Gaby Sanchez (26), Hanley Ramirez (26), Chris Coghlan (24), and Cameron Maybin (22). In other words, only one projected starter for the Marlins club is 30 years of age or older. The only player born in the ’70s is part-timer Wes Helms at 33.

    The only pitcher on the 40-man roster born in the ’70s is Brian Sanches and he has never spent a full season in the Majors. The starting rotation could include the likes of Josh Johnson (26), Ricky Nolasco (27), Chris Volstad (23), Andrew Miller (24), Anibal Sanchez (26), Sean West (23), and Rick VandenHurk (25). The man-child in charge of closing out games – Leo Nunez – is just 27 years of age. The youth movement is alive and well in Florida.

    It’s a good thing that the pitching staff is so young, because the club’s mound depth in the minor leagues is not the greatest. The top pitcher is Ryan Tucker, but he’s likely a long-term reliever and there are health questions surrounding him. The next best arms belong to ’09 first round pick Chad James and little-known Jhan Marinez. Both are raw and neither is a sure thing at this point.

    The future offense looks much brighter, thanks to the presence of two highly-regarded prospects in outfielder Mike Stanton and first baseman Logan Morrison. Stanton is a good, young player with 30-homer potential but he could also end up with Mark-Reynolds-like strikeout totals. Morrison projects to have average home run power at best for a first baseman but he should provide gap power and a good batting average (perhaps in the mold of Lyle Overbay). Third baseman Matt Dominguez, a former No. 1 pick and an excellent defensive player, still has promise but questions remain about how well he’ll hit in the Majors. My favorite sleeper on the team is Bryan Petersen and he should develop into a solid No. 4 outfielder in the worst case scenario.

    Because the club rarely lets its top players make it to free agency (they get too expensive in years 3-6) the club will never be able to load up on extra picks in the amateur draft like some rebuilding clubs. That means that the club has to be very successful in trading its players. Some of the players acquired via the draft include Nolasco, Maybin, Ramirez, and Nunez. Cantu was rescued off of the scrap heap. The club did a nice job of stealing Uggla from the Arizona organization in the Rule 5 draft. Those are the types of moves that the Marlins organization is going to have to continue to do well in order to compete.

    Johnson is probably the club’s best draft pick, as a former fourth round selection out of an Oklahoma high school. The club also did a nice job with Coghlan, although his future will be much brighter back at his natural position of second base. His offensive skill set is not well-suited to left field. Scouting director Stan Meek returns in 2010 for his eighth season overseeing the amateur draft and he has produced a rather inconsistent track record. The club has had more success in later rounds of the draft than it has with first round picks. Some of the first round picks during Meek’s time as director include Taylor Tankersley, Brett Sinkbeil, Kyle Skipworth, Jeff Allison, and Jeremy Hermida.

    General manager Mike Hill enters his third season after taking over from Larry Beinfest in late 2007. Hill has yet to really stamp his seal on the club with few major moves during his tenure. Uggla is likely not long for Florida due to his expensive contract but the general manager may have waited too long to trade the defensively-challenged second baseman. His value is diminishing every day as clubs put more emphasis on defensive value and Uggla is also getting closer and closer to free agency. Brian Chattin will oversee the minor leagues this season as director of player development.

    The organization certainly has some good, young talent but it remains to be seen if the club will allow those players to stick around long enough to help this organization compete long term.


    Organizational Rankings: Future Talent – San Francisco

    The San Francisco Giants organization has a reputation for being a geriatric ward for professional athletes – and deservedly so. General manager Brian Sabean’s love of veteran players (at the expense of promising youngsters) has come under fire in recent seasons and there appears to be a slow change a foot.

    Corner infielder Pablo Sandoval has shocked just about everyone with his immediate success in the Majors. Just 23, he has a .333 batting average and .924 OPS in 194 big league games. The only thing that could seemingly derail this roly-poly star is his conditioning. The club also appears committed to right-fielder Nate Schierholtz, who is just 26.

    Beyond that, though, the club is trotting out a number of veterans on the wrong side of their career peaks – Mark DeRosa, Edgar Renteria, Aaron Rowand, Aubrey Huff, and Bengie Molina. The re-signing this past off-season of Molina is the most recent head-scratcher. Former top draft pick Buster Posey appears ready to be an everyday contributor behind the dish, but he will now either spend the majority of the year in the minors or he’ll play numerous positions in the Majors (thanks to his athleticism). The choice to trade for second baseman Freddy Sanchez last season was also a little interesting considering that the club gave up a promising arm in Tim Alderson for the injury-prone veteran.

    Despite shedding Alderson, though, the club still has a lot of good, young arms in the Major League rotation. Mr. Cy Young Tim Lincecum is perhaps the best young pitcher in all of baseball at the age of 25. Matt Cain has been in the rotation for four full seasons but he’s still just 25 and is a workhorse. Jonathan Sanchez, 27, also has promise, but he’s quite inconsistent. Rookie Madison Bumgarner is a favorite for the fifth spot in the rotation, but there is concern over his long-term loss of his fastball velocity. The club also has some promising arms in the bullpen with the likes of Sergio Romo, Henry Sosa, Waldis Joaquin, and Dan Runzler. The latter could develop into the club’s closer of the future.

    The Giants organization also has some more offensive help in the upper minors, including shortstop Brandon Crawford, and outfielders Roger Kieschnick and Thomas Neal. The club’s top young pitcher, ’09 No. 1 draft pick Zach Wheeler, is probably about four years away from the Majors. Organizational depth is certainly not a strength for this club.

    The ’09 draft was OK, but nothing to get too excited about after Wheeler. The ’08 draft nabbed the likes of Posey, Kieschnick, and Crawford so it was quite impressive. Eighth round pick Scott Barnes was a great value but the club then tossed him to Cleveland for veteran first baseman Ryan Garko, who was then non-tendered at the end of the season.

    The club had six choices in the first round and supplemental first round of the ’07 draft. That netted the club Bumgarner and Alderson with the first two picks but the last four players have yet to develop as expected (two of those choices, though, were questionable at the time). The club then lacked second, third, and fourth round picks due to free agent signings. The selection of Runzler in the ninth round helped to make up for that.

    Scouting director John Barr has overseen the last two drafts for the club, after taking over for Matt Nerland, and Barr returns for 2010. The farm director has changed three times in the past five years. Fred Stanley will return for his second season overseeing the club’s prospects.

    For the organization to remain competitive long-term, it’s going to have to rely on developing (and holding on to) its own cost-controlled talent. Once an offensive juggernaut (thanks mostly to Barry Bonds), the club now has a pretty weak lineup and it lacks the minor-league resources to acquire players via the trade market. Fewer and fewer clubs are letting key players make it to free agency for their peak seasons, so that leaves in-house development as the best place to find talent. Hopefully the Giants front office has gotten the memo.


    Organizational Rankings: Future Talent – Toronto

    Same ol’ manager… but the times are much different. Manager Cito Gaston was at the helm of the last two Jays teams to win the World Series way back in 1992 and 1993. At that time, the Toronto club was the big spender in baseball and was able to attract top free agent talent like Dave Winfield. General manager Pat Gillick was able to engineer some outstanding trades, such as the deal with San Diego that landed both Joe Carter and Roberto Alomar. The club was also well known as the leader in signing and developing international talent.

    Over the years, though, all of those strengths slowly faded away as the club’s fan base, revenue and budget eroded. Gaston was re-signed as the club’s manager during the 2008 season and this year will mark his last as manager (He’s shifting to consultant beginning in 2011). The 2010 season marks a new direction for the club with a new sheriff in town: Alex Anthopoulos, a young inexperienced GM who has sharpened his skills through years of front office experience. He was able to receive good value for Halladay despite the fact that everyone knew the pitcher had to be traded. Anthopoulos has made changes on the farm and, most importantly, in the scouting departments. The organization went from having one of the smallest scouting departments to one of the biggest in the game.

    Ownership has openly committed to spending money if the front office can justify the move, as seen by the recent (rumored, but officially unconfirmed) signing of unproven Cuban prospect Adeinis Hechavarria for about $10 million. The club also made a hard push for another Cuban, left-handed starter Aroldis Chapman, who ultimately signed with Cincinnati for mega-bucks.

    Toronto will enter the 2010 amateur draft with the 11th overall pick and something to prove after blowing three of its four top picks in 2009, which may have been one of the last straws that broke the former GM’s back. The organization also has nine picks in the first three rounds of the 2010 draft, so it has a real chance to improve the talent and depth in the system. With that said, the club had a similar draft bonanza in ’07 and those prospects haven’t developed quite as well as the organization had hoped. The club also has its back up against the wall with a couple of the picks (those received for failing to sign ’09 draft picks James Paxton, Jake Eliopoulos, and Jake Barrett). The representatives for the players chosen in those slots will know that the club has to sign the picks this season or they will lose those compensation picks for 2011.

    Although the ’10 club clearly cannot compete with the likes of Boston, New York, and Tampa Bay, there are building blocks in place that give Canadian fans a hope for the (near-ish) future. Outfielders Adam Lind (26) and Travis Snider (22) could form the middle of the order for years to come. Aaron Hill, soon-to-be-28, could have more valuable as a trading chip than as the club’s second baseman over the next five to seven years, especially if he proves his power outburst in ’09 was no fluke. In the high minors, the club also has some interesting names in first baseman Brett Wallace (acquired in the Roy Halladay fallout), catcher J.P. Arencibia, second baseman Brad Emaus, and outfielder Moises Sierra. A few disappointing drafts have left the low minors barren, save for a few names like catcher Carlos Perez and shortstop Tyler Pastornicky.

    On the mound, the club has a lot of potential but few proven, young pitchers. Ricky Romero enters 2010 as the No. 1 guy in the rotation, but he’s only in his second season in the Majors. Other names to keep in mind are Brandon Morrow (obtained from Seattle this past off-season), Marc Rzepczynski, and Brett Cecil. The club could also see contributions from rookies Kyle Drabek (another part of the Halladay loot), Zach Stewart, and Brad Mills. Henderson Alvarez may have the highest ceiling, but he’ll spend a good portion of 2010 in high-A ball. The club also likes what its seen from ’09 No. 1 draft pick Chad Jenkins, who should join Alvarez in Dunedin. Right-hander Danny Farquhar could help out in the bullpen by mid-season.

    The good news is that the club has a lot of flexibility when it comes time to work these young (inexpensive) players into the lineup. The only bad long-term contract on the team is for Vernon Wells. Hill has a very affordable contract that could make him extremely attractive on the trade market. It’s going to be a bumpy ride for the next new years, and a lot of patience will be needed, but the final destination looks promising.


    Organizational Rankings: Future Talent – San Diego

    The San Diego Padres organization is in a transitional period. With the spacious PETCO Park, the club is making the shift to a team that focuses on pitching and defense but the big-league roster currently features few, if any, impact MLB players outside of Adrian Gonzalez.

    The club’s best young offensive player is Kyle Blanks but he’s not really well-suited to the park. At 6’8” and 285 lbs, the 23-year-old prospect’s game is power – not speed. He’s currently miscast as a left-fielder due to Gonzalez’ place at first base. Other young outfielders like Aaron Cunningham and Will Venable are probably fourth outfielders on playoff teams. Third baseman Chase Headley has been bounced around positions (left field, third base) despite having played just 255 big league games so sticking to one spot will be good for his development. He showed some promise last season but his offensive ability has been stunted by the power-dampening effects of the home ballpark.

    Rule 5 steal Everth Cabrera had a nice rookie season but expectations for the shortstop were low and many talented rookies have struggled during their sophomore seasons. We don’t know what to expect from the 23-year-old infielder in the long-term. With that said, he’s the type of player (young, fast, promising on defense) that the club should focus on in trades, as well as the amateur draft.

    On the mound, the organization has focused recently on filling holes with organizational soldiers, inexpensive free agents with low ceilings, and rejects from other organizations. The big ballpark means that the club can turn a fringe big leaguer into a league-average starter. The best pitcher currently on the staff, from a future talent standpoint, is Mat Latos, who has the makings of a No. 1 or 2 starter – even outside of San Diego. The club’s next best pitching prospect is Simon Castro, a 2006 international free agent signing.

    The club did a nice job of focusing on toolsy and athletic players in the ’09 draft. It nabbed two prep outfielders with its first two picks in Donavan Tate and Everett Williams. On the downside, both players will require significant development time. The organization’s strength is definitely in its offensive depth – especially at third base. The club has Logan Forsythe, James Darnell, and Edinson Rincon currently in the pipeline, although the club is looking at shifting Rincon to the outfield (another area that’s getting crowded). Forsythe’s line-drive approach may make him the best-suited for a role in San Diego, although the other two could have higher ceilings, especially if they’re traded to other organizations (for high-ceiling pitching help).

    The club’s history of drafting in the first round is not good… and I’m being very generous with that statement. The best pick over the past 10 years (outside of Tate, perhaps) is Khalil Greene. The club scored in the ’08 amateur draft with the likes of Jaff Decker, Forsythe and Darnell (as well as Blake Tekotte and Sawyer Carroll, who should be useful fourth or platoon outfielders). With eight picks before the third round of the ’07 draft, the club infused some depth in the system but it went with lower-ceiling college picks and that has not turned out well from a talent standpoint. Only one player out of the eight (pitcher Cory Luebke) is a Top-10 talent.

    The club has made some noise on the international market by handing out some big bucks, but it’s still too early to know if the right decisions were made.

    The trade market for Gonzalez heated up last season but the club may have whiffed on the opportunity. He has a very favorable contract but the first baseman’s value as a trade commodity diminishes with each season that falls off of his contract (which expires after a club option for 2011). Even in the National League West, this team is not going to compete over the next two seasons and Gonzalez is almost assuredly going to be too expensive for the organization to re-sign after 2011. Boston was said to be hot-and-heavy for the veteran first baseman and the Padres organization may have missed an opportunity to nab some talented, young players although none of us truly know what was offered (and rejected).

    The Padres organization appears pointed in the right direction. It appears to have the right people for the job. Now it just needs to execute and have a little luck, too. New general manager Jed Hoyer has changed things up in both the scouting and development areas. Scouting director Bill Gayton was let go after nine seasons and has been replaced by Jaron Madison. Farm director Grady Fuson was let go in ’09 and Randy Smith is now the go-to guy. It will be important for this organization to ensure that everyone is on the same mission. With a modest budget, the club needs to make every opportunity count.


    Organizational Rankings: Future Talent – Washington

    It’s been a slow climb back to respectability for the former Montreal Expos franchise, now known as the Washington Nationals. Years of league control slashed the organization’s budget, which was certainly felt in both the player development and scouting/draft areas.

    With a modest budget, the big-league club relies on a lot of young players. Outfielder Elijah Dukes has been around for a while but he’s still just 25 years old. The Rays organization gave up on him due to ongoing make-up/attitude issues and the Nationals organization made a smart decision to jump on him while his value was low. Shortstop Ian Desmond has been touted as the Next Great Thing for a few years now, but he’s finally ready to make good on the hype. Unfortunately, the club made a poor decision to give incumbent shortstop Cristian Guzman a contract extension, which has now become the elephant in the room. The best young fielder on the team, though, is third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, who is now in his fifth full season in the Majors. The 25-year-old infielder is the club’s best hitter and one of only two high first round picks that the club has made good on in the past 10 years.

    The other good pick is Mr. Stephen Strasburg, although the 2009 first overall pick in the entire draft has yet to throw an regular season pro pitch (He did throw in the ’09 Arizona Fall League, a developmental league for prospects). Although he may already be better than any of the other pitchers currently in the Nationals’ starting rotation, Strasburg is probably headed for the minors (double-A or triple-A) for the first month or so. The club has another talented, young pitcher in Jordan Zimmermann, but he was derailed by Tommy John surgery and will not be back at full strength until 2011. Southpaw John Lannan is entering his third full season in the Majors and is a sign that the club can find diamonds in the rough. The former 11th round pick from 2005 has been an innings-eater over the past two seasons and is still just 25.

    There are a few more good, young players on the way in catcher Derek Norris, reliever Drew Storen, and shortstop Danny Espinosa but the depth in the system is still not great, especially on the mound. The club has not shown much willingness to spend on international players. The draft results have also been quite modest considering the club’s high ranks in the draft orders. Decisions to re-sign fringe veterans like Guzman and Ronnie Belliard – dime-a-dozen players in the free agent market – have robbed the rebuilding club of valuable supplemental draft picks.

    Scouting director Dana Brown, who held the position for eight years, has moved on to a new role with the Toronto Blue Jays so the drafts will now be overseen by Kris Kline. Doug Harris is the club’s director of player development; that role has been a bit of a revolving door over the past five years so some stability might be good for the organization.

    The club has shown an ability to acquire talented, young players, whose values have slipped (Dukes, Lastings Milledge, now in Pittsburgh), in trades but it has yet to truly master the amateur draft or player development. A lack of desire to play ball in the international market is also hurting an organization that was once well-known for its pursuits overseas (Vladimir Guerrero, Orlando Cabrera, to name just a few). More money needs to be spent on scouting, signing and developing in-house talent. Signing free agents like Adam Kennedy and trading for players like Nyjer Morgan serve a purposes – but only to act as placeholders for inexpensive, team-controlled prospects already developing in the pipeline. This organization is starting to figure it out, but it still has a long way to go.


    The Top 100 Prospects

    Well, not everyone agreed with my Top 50 AL prospects or my Top 50 NL prospects, but that’s to be expected. From a traffic perspective, they were hugely popular, so hopefully everyone will enjoy critiquing the Top 100. After all, that’s what they’re hear for: we love reader input at FanGraphs. (As long as it’s constructive, that is.) I don’t think you can really take just one list/point-of-view and consider it prospect gospel; you have to read a variety of opinions, as no one person is right on every prospect or with every ranking.

    So, with no further ado…

    1. Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves
    2. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington Nationals
    3. Desmond Jennings, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
    4. Mike Stanton, OF, Florida Marlins
    5. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants
    6. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Texas Rangers
    7. Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland Indians
    8. Jesus Montero, C/1B, New York Yankees
    9. Domonic Brown, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
    10. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates

    11. Christian Friedrich, LHP, Colorado Rockies
    12. Dustin Ackley, 2B/OF, Seattle Mariners
    13. Brian Matusz, LHP, Baltimore Orioles
    14. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
    15. Alcides Escobar, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
    16. Justin Smoak, 1B, Texas Rangers
    17. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, San Francisco Giants
    18. Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Cincinnati Reds
    19. Chris Carter, 1B, Oakland Athletics
    20. Martin Perez, LHP, Texas Rangers

    21. Logan Morrison, 1B, Florida Marlins
    22. Casey Kelly, RHP, Boston Red Sox
    23. Aaron Hicks, OF, Minnesota Twins
    24. Andrew Cashner, RHP, Chicago Cubs
    25. Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs
    26. Tyler Matzek, LHP, Colorado Rockies
    27. Tim Beckham, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
    28. Wade Davis, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
    29. Michael Montgomery, LHP, Kansas City Royals
    30. Devaris Gordon, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers

    31. Derek Norris, C, Washington Nationals
    32. Brett Wallace, 3B/1B, Toronto Blue Jays
    33. Kyle Drabek, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
    34. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
    35. Ryan Westmoreland, OF, Boston Red Sox
    36. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves
    37. Julio Teheran, RHP, Altanta Braves
    38. Josh Bell, 3B, Baltimore Orioles
    39. Tyler Flowers, C, Chicago White Sox
    40. Hank Conger, C, Los Angeles Angels

    41. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City Royals
    42. Shelby Miller, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
    43. Wilson Ramos, C, Minnesota Twins
    44. Casey Crosby, LHP, Detroit Tigers
    45. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals
    46. Fernando Martinez, OF, New York Mets
    47. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
    48. Josh Vitters, 3B, Chicago Cubs
    49. Austin Romine, C, New York Yankees
    50. Michael Taylor, OF, Oakland Athletics

    51. Austin Jackson, OF, Detroit Tigers
    52. Matthew Moore, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays
    53. Jason Castro, C, Houston Astros
    54. Brad Lincoln, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
    55. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Cleveland Indians
    56. Zach Wheeler, RHP, San Francisco Giants
    57. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Atlanta Braves
    58. Jordan Lyles, RHP, Houston Astros
    59. Brett Lawrie, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers
    60. Tony Sanchez, C, Pittsburgh Pirates

    61. Zach McAllister, RHP, New York Yankees
    62. Zach Stewart, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
    63. Ike Davis, 1B/OF, New York Mets
    64. Jenrry Mejia, RHP, New York Mets
    65. Daniel Hudson, RHP, Chicago White Sox
    66. Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Texas Rangers
    67. Jacob Turner, RHP, Detroit Tigers
    68. Simon Castro, RHP, San Diego Padres
    69. Jhoulys Chacin, RHP, Colorado Rockies
    70. Brandon Erbe, RHP, Baltimore Orioles

    71. Jordan Walden, RHP, Los Angeles Angels
    72. Junichi Tazawa, RHP, Boston Red Sox
    73. Jake Arrieta, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
    74. Brandon Allen, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
    75. Thomas Neal, OF, San Francisco Giants
    76. Alex White, RHP, Cleveland Indians
    77. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Minnesota Twins
    78. Zach Britton, LHP, Baltimore Orioles
    79. Jio Mier, SS, Houston Astros
    80. Ethan Martin, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers

    81. Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels
    82. Matt Dominguez, 3B, Florida Marlins
    83. Ian Desmond, SS, Washington Nationals
    84. Michael Saunders, OF, Seattle Mariners
    85. Nick Hagadone, LHP, Cleveland Indians
    86. J.P. Arencibia, C, Toronto Blue Jays
    87. Logan Forsythe, 3B, San Diego Padres
    88. Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Chicago Cubs
    89. Trevor Reckling, LHP, Los Angeles Angels
    90. Nick Barnese, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays

    91. Hector Rondon, RHP, Cleveland Indians
    92. Mike Leake, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
    93. Jose Tabata, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
    94. Danny Duffy, LHP, Kansas City Royals
    95. Chris Heisey, OF, Cincinnati Reds
    96. Andrew Lambo, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
    97. Mat Gamel, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers
    98. Jaff Decker, OF, San Diego Padres
    99. Jay Jackson, RHP, Chicago Cubs
    100. Trevor May, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies