General Manager: Josh Byrnes
Farm Director: Mike Berger
Scouting Director: Tom Allison

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-slot signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st Round: Bobby Borchering, 3B, Florida HS
1. A.J. Pollock, OF, Notre Dame
1S. Matt Davidson, 3B, California HS
1S. Chris Owings, SS, South Carolina HS
1S. Mike Belfiore, LHP, Boston College
2. Eric Smith, RHP, Rhode Island
2. Marc Krauss, OF, Ohio
3. Keon Broxton, 3B, Florida CC
7x – Matt Helm, 3B, Arizona HS
13x – Patrick Schuster, LHP, Florida HS

Typically with the draft reviews I give a very brief overview of the key prospects taken in the ’09 draft. The Top 10 list that follows (due up tomorrow for The Snakes) does not include 2009 draft picks due to the lack of available statistical information, as well as the natural volatility of the young players’ values. This organization is different, though, given A) The incredible lack of depth in the system prior to ’09, and B) The number of quality prospects that were nabbed in last year’s draft. As such, I am going to give more in-depth profiles for a number of the top picks below.

Bobby Borchering: He had an OK debut in rookie ball in ’09. The 19-year-old third baseman hit .241/.290/.425 in 87 at-bats. He quickly showed his raw power (.184 ISO) but also that he needs to tweak his approach at the plate after posting a walk rate of 5.4% and a strikeout rate of 31.0%. Defensively, Borchering has a good arm, but there is concern that he’ll lose mobility at the hot corner and eventually move to either first base or even an outfield corner. Some clubs also liked him as a catcher.

Matt Davidson: Another prep third baseman, Davidson debuted in short-season ball to accommodate Borchering’s stay in rookie ball. The powerful prospect still produced respectable numbers with a line of .241/.312/.319 in 270 at-bats. Davidson’s power clearly did not show up in his debut (.078 ISO) but he showed some patience at the plate (7.0 BB%) but also big strikeout numbers (27.8 K%). Defensively, he has the arm to stay at third (He was his high-school team’s closer, too) but Davidson will have to watch his conditioning (He’s already 6’3”, 210 lbs).

A.J. Pollock: Drafted as an outfielder, Pollock played all over the diamond as an amateur; if his bat doesn’t click in pro ball, he has the potential to be a super-utility player. With that said, he had no problems in his debut. He hit .271/.319/.376 in 255 low-A at-bats. He slugged just .106, but Pollock showed his athleticism and speed by swiping 10 bases in 14 attempts. To be a true top-of-the-order hitter, it would be nice to see him increase his walk rate from 5.8%.

Marc Krauss: This college outfielder debuted in low-A ball and hit .304/.377/.478 in 115 at-bats. He showed a good idea of the strike zone with a walk rate of 10.8% and his strikeout rate was OK at 18.3%. He showed some power with an ISO rate of .174. There is concern that his approach will not lead to big power numbers in pro ball (as witnessed by his 53.3% ground-ball rate and low line-drive rate) and he’s not likely to hit for a high average. He’s also limited defensively due to a lack of overall athleticism.

Chris Owings: Owings isn’t flashy in the field or at the plate, but he’s reliable. Defensively, he’s sure-handed and coverts what he gets too; he’s expected to remain at shortstop on a long-term basis. At the plate, he has limited power (.120 ISO) but Owings projects to be a solid top of the order hitter, but probably in the two hole due to his lack of speed and patience (2.7 BB%). He makes good contact and should hit .280-.300 in the Majors if he keeps developing. Overall, he hit .306/.324/.426 in 108 at-bats in his debut.

Mike Belfiore: It’s easy to like Belfiore. He’s left-handed, he can touch the low-to-mid-90s with his fastball and he gets a ton of ground balls (54% in his debut). He also has a four-pitch mix (fastball, slider, change-up, and curve) and he his ceiling keeps getting higher now that the former two-way player in college has focused on pitching. Overall in low-A ball in ’09, Belfiore posted a 2.48 FIP in 58.0 innings, while posting a strikeout rate of 8.53 K/9 and showing excellent control with a walk rate of 2.02 BB/9.

Keon Broxton: An athletic center-field prospect, Broxton struggled somewhat in his rookie-ball debut thanks to an ugly 34.2% strikeout rate. He also walked just 6.4% of the time and attempted seven steals (six successfully) in 72 games. Overall, he hit .246/.302/.474 in 272 at-bats. He showed more power than expected with an ISO rate of .228. He currently looks a little bit like fellow Diamondback Chris Young.

Ryan Wheeler (5th round): Wheeler had a solid debut in short-season ball and even earned a late-season promotion (eight games) to low-A. He hit .363/.461/.538 in 234 short-season at-bats. Wheeler’s scouting report out of college suggested that he was a one-dimensional slugger who went up swinging for the fences. He showed a little more depth than that in pro ball by posting a walk rate of 13.2% and he kept his strikeout rate to an excellent 12.0%. His ISO rate was .175 and he even stole seven base in 11 tries despite average-at-best speed.

2008 1st Round: Daniel Schlereth, LHP, Arizona
1S. Wade Miley, LHP, Southeastern Louisiana
2. Bryan Shaw, RHP, Long Beach State
3. Kevin Eichhorn, RHP, California HS

Schlereth reached the Majors quicker that a lot of people thought he would but the reliever was dealt to Detroit in the off-season in the Edwin Jackson trade. Miley is on the Top 10 list. Eichhorn has a chance to get onto the list in 2010 if he can continue to develop his control. The reliever spent ’09 in rookie ball and pitched just 16.0 innings with 25 strikeouts and nine walks.

Shaw spent time in both the starting rotation and the bullpen at high-A ball in ’09 and he posted respectable numbers. He allowed 96 hits in 107.1 innings, while showing OK control with a walk rate of 3.35 BB/9. He also struck out batters at a rate of 7.97 K/9. His FIP (3.70) was a full run lower than his ERA, in part because he relies to heavily on the ground ball (55%) and minor-league defenses are notoriously unreliable. He’s a better prospect than he currently appears to be.

Outfielder Collin Cowgill (5th round) was a steal and appears on the Top 10 list. Right-hander Trevor Harden (14th) is another player to keep your eye on.

2007 1st Round: Jarrod Parker, RHP, Indiana HS
1S. Wes Roemer, RHP, Cal State Fullerton
1S. Ed Easley, C, Mississippi State
2. Barry Enright, RHP, Pepperdine
3. Reynaldo Navarro, SS, Puerto Rico HS
5x – Tyrell Worthington, OF, North Carolina HS

First pick Parker has looked very good in pro ball and reached Double-A in ’09 before succumbing to Tommy John surgery. The organization hopes to have him back by the end of 2010 and he is on the Top 10 list along with Navarro.

Both Roemer and Enright are right-handed pitchers with good control but modest stuff. Roemer reached double-A in ’09 and allowed 132 hits in 134.2 innings, while also posting a walk rate of 2.87 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 6.55 K/9. He also produced a 44% ground-ball rate but his line-drive rate was a worrisome 18%. Enright also pitched in double-A and he gave up a lot of hits: 171 in 156.0 innings of work. His walk rate was good at 2.13 BB/9 but the strikeout rate was very low at just 5.94 K/9.

Easley’s bat has been a disappointment since turning pro. He hit just .228/.324/.304 in 378 high-A at-bats. Worthington has been a huge disappointment and has shown limited aptitude at the plate. In his third try at short-season ball, the outfielder hit just .204/.264/.274 with a 33.3% strikeout rate in 186 at-bats.

Josh Collmenter (15th round) is a pitcher to keep an eye on, while Bryan Augenstein (7th) could end up being a useful arm in the Majors.

2006 1st Round: Max Scherzer, RHP, Missouri
1S. Brooks Brown, RHP, Georgia (Traded to DET)
2. Brett Anderson, LHP, Oklahoma HS (Traded to OAK)
3. Dallas Buck, RHP, Oregon State (Traded to CIN)
3. Cyle Hankerd, OF, Southern California

Anderson was the cream of this crop, but he was traded to Oakland in the Dan Haren deal. Scherzer is a close second, but he was lost to Detroit in the Jackson deal. Brown (Detroit) and Buck (Cincinnati) were also traded. The organization, which doesn’t have a lot of money to burn, has made some very poor decisions by using cheap, talented minor leaguers as trading chips for more expensive veterans – some of whom did not stay around long.

Hankerd has never lived up to the hype that developed after his pro debut in ’06 but he could still see time in the Majors as a fourth or fifth outfielder. Daniel Stange (7th round) has some potential as a middle reliever. John Hester (13th) could be the club’s back-up catcher no later than 2011. Clay Zavada (30th) took a unique route to the Majors but he should be one of the southpaws in the MLB ‘pen this season.

Up Next: The Arizona Diamondbacks Top 10 Prospects

In case you missed it, here are links to the Top 10 lists for all the teams in both the American and National League East divisions. The link to the AL/NL Central Top 10 lists is HERE.

American League East
Toronto Blue Jays | Top Prospect: Brett Wallace, 3B/1B (AAA)
Boston Red Sox | Top Prospect: Casey Kelly, RHP (A+)
Tampa Bay Rays | Top Prospect: Desmond Jennings, OF (AAA)
Baltimore Orioles | Top Prospect: Brian Matusz, LHP (MLB)
New York Yankees | Top Prospect: Jesus Montero, C (AA)

National League East
Washington Nationals | Top Prospect: Stephen Strasburg, RHP (AFL)
Philadelphia Phillies | Top Prospect: Domonic Brown, OF (AA)
Florida Marlins | Top Prospect: Michael Stanton, OF (AA)
Atlanta Braves | Top Prospect: Jason Heyward, OF (AAA)
New York Mets | Top Prospect: Fernando Martinez, OF (MLB)

Up Next: The AL and NL West Top 10 lists

General Manager: Mike Rizzo
Farm Director: Doug Harris
Scouting Director: Kris Kline

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included*)

The depth is still lacking in the Nationals system, but the good news is that the club is starting to collect some prospects with higher ceilings, led (of course) by Stephen Strasburg. Fellow ’09 draft pick Drew Storen is another pitcher to keep an eye on, as he could be in Washington by mid-season.

1. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, College*
DOB: July 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2009 1st round – San Diego State University
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 92-98 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

Yes, I am stepping away from my self-imposed restriction of not ranking 2009 draft picks. I’m sure you can understand why with Strasburg, who is by far the best prospect in the entire system, if not all of baseball. Statistically-speaking, there is little to go on with the big right-hander. He made his pro debut in the Arizona Fall League and allowed 15 hits in 19.0 innings, while punching out 23 and walking seven. He also produced a crazy number of ground-ball outs. Of the five starts that he made, he allowed more than one run just once (eight in 2.2 innings). There is some thought that Strasburg could step right into the Nationals rotation at the beginning of 2010, but he’s likely due for some minor-league seasoning in double-A.

2. Derek Norris, C, Low-A
DOB: February 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 4th round – Kansas HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Norris had a breakout season and is now one of the best catching prospects in all of baseball. Playing in low-A ball, the right-handed catcher hit .286/.413/.513 in 437 at-bats. His triple-slash line was aided by a .342 BABIP, which is rather high for a catcher – but Norris has better legs than most at his position (as seen by his 29 stolen bases attempts in two seasons). He showed excellent power with an ISO rate of .227, which helps justify (to a degree) the 26.5% strikeout rate. Norris showed exceptional patience at the plate with a walk rate of 16.7%. Defensively, he threw out 36% of base-stealers, but he allowed 28 passed balls.

3. Ian Desmond, SS, Majors
DOB: September 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2004 3rd round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

It’s taken Desmond a few years to navigate the minor-league waters but he appears ready to assume the full-time shortstop gig for the Nationals. The club is confident in the young infielder to the point where it is planning to move veteran Cristian Guzman to second base. Desmond began the year in double-A and hit .306/.372/.494 in 170 at-bats. He showed good power with an ISO rate of .188 but his strikeout rate was a tad high at 23.5%. That rate came down to 17.4% in 178 triple-A at-bats, but his power diminished to an ISO rate of .107. Overall, Desmond stole 21 bases in 26 attempts. Promoted to the Majors, he hit .280/.318/.561 in 82 at-bats. The 24-year-old shortstop should produce at a league-averag clip in 2010, at the very least.

4. Danny Espinosa, SS, High-A
DOB: April 1987 Bats: S Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Long Beach State University
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

If Desmond’s development suddenly goes south, the organization also has Espinosa waiting in the wings. He looks quite different than the player of the same name at Long Beach State University, who never topped more than seven homers (in 210 at-bats) and was considered a line-drive hitter. Taking to the wood, though, has been good for Espinosa. His aggressive approach has remain consistent, though, and he has produced a high strikeout rate in pro ball (27.2%) and he did not hit for much average in ’09 with a triple-slash line of .264/.375/.460 in 474 high-A at-bats. With 29 steals in 40 tries, Espinosa could develop into a 20-20 threat if his power output (.196 ISO, 18 homers) is for real. He’s beginning to look a little bit like Toronto’s Aaron Hill, but with more speed. Defensively, Espinosa has a strong arm and solid range at shortstop.

5. Chris Marrero, 1B, Double-A
DOB: July 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 1st round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

It’s been a long, slow climb through the system for this former No. 1 draft pick. Marrero was stuck in high-A ball for three seasons but he finally received a taste of double-A (23 games) in ’09. At the lower level, he hit .287/.360/.464 in 414 at-bats. He has yet to show consistent power and his ISO rate was .176 before it dropped to .120 with his promotion. His strikeout rate (23.4%) and walk rate (9.0%) both remained almost identical despite the move. Marrero is a below-average fielder at first base so he needs to tap into his raw power more consistently if he’s going to be an everyday player at the MLB level. Just 21, he’ll return to double-A for the 2010 season.

6. Michael Burgess, OF, High-A
DOB: October 1988 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 supplemental 1st round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

A move from low-A in ’08 to high-A in ’09 saw Burgess’ OPS drop from .804 to .735. He also lost some pop in his bat as his ISO rate slipped from .219 to .175. Although his walk rates (9.9%) were almost identical and strikeout rate of 28.1% was actually an improvement over ’08’s 33.9%, Burgess’ numbers took a dive in part due to a .288 BABIP (down from .331 in ’08). The stocky outfielder hit .235/.325/.410 in 480 at-bats in ’09, and he’s going to continue to struggle to hit for a high average until he gets his strikeout rate under control. He attempted 20 steals and was caught eight times. Defensively, he has a very strong arm and is a good fielding right-fielder.

7. Bradley Meyers, RHP, Double-A
DOB: September 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 5th round – Loyola Marymount University
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

A little-known pitcher entering ’09, Meyers had a solid year and looks poised to help the Nationals club in 2010, if needed. The right-hander has good size for a pitcher and an average repertoire that plays up due to his good control (2.10 BB/9 in ’09). Meyers began the year in high-A and allowed 71 hits with a 2.72 FIP in 88.1 innings of work. He allowed just one home run thanks to a 51% ground-ball rate. Moved up to double-A, he posted a 2.76 FIP and gave up 40 hits in 48.0 innings. His strikeout rate also jumped from 6.62 to 8.06 K/9. Meyers allowed just two homers at the senior level, although his ground-ball rate dipped to 40%. Pitching depth remains a weakness in the organization, so Meyers could definitely see time in the Majors in 2010 if he continues to pitch well.

8. Aaron Thompson, LHP, Double-A
DOB: February 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2005 1st round – Texas HS (Florida)
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-91 fastball, plus change-up, curveball, slider

Thompson, like Meyers, does not have a huge ceiling but they both project as useful big-league arms. This former supplemental first round pick was obtained from Florida last season for first baseman Nick Johnson and he posted solid numbers after changing addresses. Thompson pitched 114.0 innings for the Marlins’ double-A squad and he allowed 121 hits, while posting a walk rate of 3.39 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 5.92 K/9. After the trade, the southpaw saw his rates improve to 3.03 BB/9 and 7.44 K/9. He also allowed 32 hits in 32.2 innings. Thompson clearly needs to find a way to cut down on the hits allowed and he’s been incredibly unlucky throughout his career when it comes to his LOB% rate, which was 65% in ’09.

9. Destin Hood, OF, Short-Season
DOB: April 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 2nd round – Alabama HS
MLB ETA: Late-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

A prep football star, the organization swayed Hood away from an Auburn University football scholarship with an above-slot contract in 2008. The outfielder remains raw but he continues to show flashes of developing into a solid baseball player. He hit well in a brief stint in rookie ball (.330/.388/.614 in 88 at-bats) before moving up to short-season ball, where his numbers dipped a bit. At the upper level, Hood hit .246/.302/.333 in 138 despite a .352 BABIP. His strikeout rate was a disturbingly-high 32.6% and he did not produce the power numbers (.087 ISO) to help justify such a large number. Hood does not have much speed, so he’s not a stolen-base threat and he’s very raw defensive. He should move up to low-A ball for the 2010 season.

10. Eury Perez, OF, Rookie
DOB: May 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Perez certainly does not have the pedigree of some of the other bigger-named (and bigger $$$) Latin signings in the past few years. With that said, he burst onto the baseball landscape with authority in ’09 by hitting .381/.443/.503 in 181 at-bats. The high slugging percentage is likely a figment of the small-sample size and level of competition, as Perez has a small frame and is built more for speed (16 steals in 24 tries) and his ISO rate was just .122. The outfielder showed a pretty good approach at the plate for his age, with a walk rate of 7.3% and a strikeout rate of just 11.0%. His high batting average, though, was the result of a crazy .418 BABIP. Because he has a pretty good idea at the plate, and he buys into the strengths of his game (59% ground-ball rate), Perez – although very raw – has the chance to develop into a solid top-of-the-order hitter.

Up Next: The AL/NL East Recap

General Manager: Mike Rizzo
Farm Director: Doug Harris
Scouting Director: Kris Kline

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-slot signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st Round: Stephen Strasburg, RHP, San Diego
1. Drew Storen, RHP, Stanford
2. Jeff Kobernus, 2B, California
3. Trevor Holder, RHP, Georgia
12x – Nathan Karns, RHP, Texas Tech

Strasburg is obviously the Nationals’ No. 1 prospect and you’ll read more about him tomorrow. Storen could beat Strasburg to Washington, though, as he’s already produced some very good numbers in the minors. The right-handed future closer pitched a total of 37.0 innings in pro ball in ’09 and allowed just 21 hits with 49 strikeouts. He did, though, walk six batters in 12.1 innings at double-A as his control got progressively worse as he faced better hitters. In other words, a little more minor-league seasoning will probably help.

Kobernus appeared in just 10 games after signing and hit .220/.273/.244. The second baseman should move up to low-A for 2010. Perhaps impressed with his ability to touch to mid-90s, the organization nabbed Holder about five to seven rounds higher than he was projected to go. In his debut, he played at three levels and reached high-A despite OK, but not great, numbers. The right-hander made six starts in high-A and allowed 33 hits in 23.1 innings, while posting a walk rate of 3.47 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 6.94 K/9. Karns signed too late to play in ’09; he’s similar to Holder in the fact that he can hit the mid-90s but he doesn’t dominate due to poor command and a lack of development in his secondary pitches.

2008 1st Round: Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri (Did Not Sign)
2. Destin Hood, OF, Alabama HS
3. Danny Espinosa, SS, Long Beach State
x- Graham Hicks, LHP, Florida HS
x- Adrian Nieto, C, Florida HS
x- J.P. Ramirez, OF, Texas HS

The club definitely would have liked to get Crow signed, but he ended up going back in the draft and was taken (and inked) by Kansas City in the first round of the 2009 draft. Both Hood and Espinosa appear on the club’s Top 10 list.

Hicks spent time in extended spring training in ’09 and then pitched the majority of the season in low-A ball where he struggled with a 5.38 FIP. He allowed 53 hits in 36.2 innings of work. Nieto also began the year in extended spring training before spending a second season in rookie ball where his bat failed to develop. The catcher hit just .228/.337/.287 in 136 at-bats. He clearly needs to drive the ball more after posting an ISO of .059 despite his solid frame (6’0”, 200 lbs).

Ramirez just missed to the Top 10 list after a solid short-season ball season. The outfielder hit .264/.306/.407 in 295 at-bats. He has speed, but Ramirez is still learning the art of base running; he was caught nine times in 15 attempts. His walk rate was just 4.5% so he’s going to need to show more patience at the plate. Ramirez also needs to improve against southpaws after hitting just .203/.259/.266.

2007 1st Round: Ross Detwiler, RHP, Missouri State
1S. Josh Smoker, LHP, Georgia HS
1S. Michael Burgess, OF, Florida HS
2. Jordan Zimmermann, RHP, Wisconsin-Stevens
2. Jake Smolinski, 3B, Illinois HS
3. Steven Souza, 3B, Washington HS
x- Jack McGeary, LHP, Massachusetts HS

With six picks in the first three rounds (and one large over-slot deal), the club was set to really infuse some talent into the system. Unfortunately, only Zimmermann has met or exceeded expectations and he’s currently on the shelf after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Detwiler has appeared in 16 MLB games over the past three seasons, but he has yet to take a stranglehold on a rotation spot. Burgess still appears on the club’s Top 10 list, but he needs a strong 2010 season. Smoker has battled injury problems and he has yet to get out of short-season ball for an significant period of time (five starts in low-A before being demoted in ’09).

Smolinski had some value, as he was traded to Florida in the Scott Olsen deal, which really didn’t work out for the Nats. Souza spent ’09 in low-A but he strikes out too much (26.0%) for someone with modest power (.081 ISO). McGeary originally signed a contract that allowed him to play pro ball and also attended college but he committed to the sport full-time in ’09. Unfortunately, he had a pretty poor season and posted a 5.09 FIP in low-A.

Derek Norris (4th round) and Bradley Meyers (5th) were both excellent acquisitions.

2006 1st Round: Chris Marrero, OF/1B, Florida HS
1. Colton Willems, RHP, Florida HS
2. Sean Black, RHP, New Jersey HS (Did not sign)
2. Stephen Englund, OF, Washington HS
3. Stephen King, SS, Florida HS

Marrero has not posted above-average numbers in the minors despite his favorable draft status. Despite that, he is still amongst the Nationals’ Top 10 prospects. Willems’ ’09 season was ruined by injuries. Englund hit so poorly that he’s now giving pitching a try. King may want to try the same thing after hitting just .222/.304/.340 with a 31.1% strikeout rate in 315 high-A at-bats.

Up Next: The Washington Nationals Top 10 Prospects

General Manager: Alex Anthopoulos
Farm Director: Tony LaCava
Scouting Director: Andrew Tinnish

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

This is a tough system to rank beyond the Top 3 because the organization had such a down year in ’09 with a lot of prospects (hopefully temporarily) wiping out. On the plus side, there are quite a few talented players who are one good season away from shooting up the depth chart. The loss of Roy Halladay was a huge blow to the organization, as well as baseball in Canada, but the trade did infuse some much-needed talent.

1. Brett Wallace, 3B/1B, Triple-A
DOB: August 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – Arizona State University (St. Louis)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Wallace is the guy that was always destined to be a Blue Jay. The club drafted him out of high school in ’05 even though he was an almost impossible signing due to his commitment to Arizona State. The club then had hoped to grab him in the ’08 draft, but St. Louis got to him first. Finally, the club nabbed him in a deal with Oakland (for Michael Taylor, who was obtained in the Roy Halladay deal). Wallace had a busy year in ’09 and played with three different minor league teams in double-A and triple-A. Overall on the year, he hit .293/.365/.458, which is not bad at all considering it was his first full season and he had a lot of change to deal with. The left-handed hitter fared very well against southpaws with an .897 OPS. Wallace projects to be a 20+ home run hitter with the ability to hit .280-.300. However, he needs to get a little more loft on the ball if he’s going to be a consistent power hitter. His walk rate took a bit of a hit with the promotion to triple-A (6.5%) compared to his double-A rate (11.7%), so he could stand to make some improvements in that area.

2. Kyle Drabek, RHP, Double-A
DOB: December 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 1st round – Texas HS (Philadelphia)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-96 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

Drabek had an excellent ’09 season while returning from Tommy John surgery. He began the year in high-A ball and allowed 49 hits in 61.2 innings of work. His walk rate was solid at 2.77 BB/9 and he did not allow a home run, despite an average ground-ball rate. His strikeout rate was a nifty 10.80. Moved up to double-A, Drabek’s FIP rose from 1.82 to 3.83 but his walk rate was still good at 2.90 BB/9. His strikeout rate dropped to 7.10 K/9. He gave up nine homers in double-A, as his HR/9 rate increased to 0.84 and his ground-ball rate dropped a little below average. Overall, he allowed 141 hits in 158.0 innings of work. The right-hander will probably begin the year back in double-A where he can hopefully improve his worm-burning numbers before moving up to the hitter’s haven that is Las Vegas. Drabek has the potential to be a No. 1 or 2 starter.

3. Zach Stewart, RHP, Double-A
DOB: September 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Texas Tech University (Cincinnati)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

The club’s No. 1 prospect before the Halladay trade, Stewart is more suited to this position on a team’s Top 10 list. The right-hander has good stuff but the jury is still out on if he’s a starter or reliever. Toronto seems committed to him as a starter, which makes sense considering the bullpen depth that the club has at this point. Stewart pitched for four teams and at three levels in ’09. He began the year in high-A ball and posted a 2.63 FIP in seven starts. Moved up to double-A, he posted a 2.77 FIP in another seven starts. Jumped to triple-A with the Reds, he moved to the bullpen and had a 3.42 FIP in nine appearances before moving to Toronto where he had a 3.42 FIP in 11 games. His control dipped with each promotion, going from 1.70 to 2.43 to 4.90, so he clearly has some more work to do. On the plus side, his strikeout rate rose from 6.80 to 7.54 to 10.52. Along with his excellent K-rate, Stewart produces a lot of ground-balls (53% in ’09). If he can sharpen his change-up, he could be a solid No. 3 starter.

4. J.P. Arencibia, C, Triple-A
DOB: January 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – University of Tennessee
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

It was an ugly year for Arencibia, who balked at making adjustments to his approach at the plate, which led to a dismal walk rate of just 5.2% (although it was an improvement over ’08). Arencibia had a breakout year in ’08 by hitting 27 homers and driving in 105 runs between high-A and double-A. However, his wOBA dropped from .402 in high-A to .348 in double-A… and it continued to slide in ’09, down to .316. His strikeout rate has gone from 18.5 to 21.0 to 24.5% during that same span. His BABIP also bottomed out in ’09 at .269, as his triple-slash line was just .236/.284/.444 in 466 triple-A at-bats. It was bad timing for Arencibia, who likely would have been in line for the starting gig in Toronto in 2010, if he had had even an average year at triple-A. On the positive side, Arencibia has made huge strides on defense and now projects to be an average-to-above-average MLB catcher. Unless his hitting improves, though, he could be relegated to platoon work or a back-up gig on a championship-caliber team.

5. Moises Sierra, OF, Double-A
DOB: September 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

With one of the strongest outfield arms in all of minor league baseball, Sierra made huge strides at the plate in ’09. Just 21, he hit .286/.360/.393 in 405 at-bats at high-A ball. His walk rate has improved each of the past three seasons and it was 7.4% in ’09. His strikeout rate has dropped each year and it was just 16.3% in high-A, as Sierra is obviously becoming more confident at the plate. He also improved his base running in ’09 and stole 10 bases in 12 tries after being successful just 12 times in 23 tries in ’08. On the negative side, his power has yet to develop, although he has the potential to hit for power. His ISO rate has dropped each of the past three seasons from .154 to .118 to .106. The club was obviously happy with Sierra’s performance in ’09, which included a wOBA of .353, and he received a late-season promotion to double-A. After appearing in just nine games at that level last season, Sierra should return there for 2010. He is a breakout candidate for the new season.

6. Brad Mills, LHP, Triple-A
DOB: March 1985 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 4th round – University of Arizona
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 86-90 mph fastball, plus change-up, curveball

Mills almost made the club out of spring training in ’09 – after an excellent ’08 season – and his value skyrocketed early in the year. Unfortunately, he had some ups-and-downs at triple-A and also battled injuries, which has caused him to fall out of favor with a lot of prospect watchers. Despite his “off year,” Mills still posted a 3.80 FIP at triple-A and showed acceptable control with a walk rate of 3.74 BB/9 and a good, but not great, strikeout rate at 7.68 K/9. Given two starts in the Majors, Mills tried to nibble and lacked confidence in his fastball and curveball, both of which had negative values in a small sample size (7.2 innings). If healthy in 2010, Mills should open the year back in triple-A but he could be one of the first pitchers called up.

7. Travis D’Arnaud, C, Low-A
DOB: February 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 supplemental 1st round pick (Philadelphia)
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

D’Arnaud could be ranked higher on this list but I’m taking the conservative approach as he played at low-A in ’09. Like Wallace, the club had tried to acquire this catcher via the draft but he was nabbed with the 37th overall pick by the Phillies. Toronto, picking 38th, ended up with Brett Cecil (a nice compensation). D’Arnaud, who turns 21 shortly, hit .255/.319/.419 in 482 at-bats in low-A ball last year (His numbers were depressed by a .279 BABIP). He showed good power potential with 38 doubles and 13 homers (.164 ISO). The catcher also had a pretty good approach at the plate with a walk rate of 7.6% and a strikeout rate of 15.6%. He has a good defensive reputation but he threw out just 23% of base stealers. The system suddenly has good depth at the catching position with the likes or Arencibia, D’Arnaud, and Carlos Perez.

8. Henderson Alvarez, RHP, Low-A
DOB: April 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, plus change-up, slider

Alvarez is an exciting prospect because his fastball has been gaining velocity over the past two seasons and now sits comfortably in the low 90s, and it has excellent sink. That good downward movement resulted in a ground-ball rate of 51.4% at low-A in ’09. The right-hander gave up just one homer in 124.1 innings of work, while also posting a 2.43 FIP as a teenager. He also showed excellent control for his age with a walk rate of 1.38 BB/9. Still learning how to set up hitters, Alvarez’ strikeout rate was just 6.66 K/9 but his breaking ball has strikeout potential. He’ll move up to High-A ball in 2010 at the age just 20.

9. Carlos Perez, C, Rookie
DOB: October 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Late-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

The organization has not had much luck handing out large contracts to big-named international free agents, but Perez joins Alvarez and Sierra as one of the Jays’ best under-the-radar Latin signings. The catcher is solid defensive (albeit it with the usual youthful development needs), and he’s also becoming quite a force at the plate thanks to his solid batting eye. Perez, 19, made his North American debut in ’09 at rookie ball and hit .291/.364/.433 in 141 at-bats. After walking more than he struck out in the Dominican Summer League in ’08, he posted a respectable walk rate of 9.8% in the Gulf Coast League. He also showed some line-drive pop (.142 ISO) and he is more athletic than most catchers.

10. Danny Farquhar, RHP, Double-A
DOB: February 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 10th round – University of Louisiana-Lafayette
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-94 mph fastball, cutter, slider, curveball, change-up

There are a number of other prospects that could have slid in here such as Gustavo Pierre, Tyler Pastornicky, Justin Jackson – interestingly enough all shortstops – because the system has so many sleepers in it right now (but few “can’t miss” names). Tim Collins was also an option here, but he projects to be a left-handed reliever, so his ceiling is a little lower than Farquhar who could develop into an eighth-inning guy, if not a closer. The right-hander comes at hitters from a variety of arm angles and can reach the low-90s from a sidearm slot. Perhaps because he throws so many different pitches – and with so many angles – Farquhar’s control has suffered and he posted a walk rate of 5.91 BB/9 in double-A. That obviously has to improve before he’ll have much success in the Majors. Despite that fact, he posted a 10.05 K/9 rate and allowed just one homer and 31 hits in 45.2 innings at the double-A level.

Up Next: The Washington Nationals

General Manager: Alex Anthopoulos
Farm Director: Tony LaCava
Scouting Director: Andrew Tinnish

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-slot signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st Round: Chad Jenkins, RHP, Kennesaw State
1S. James Paxton, LHP, Kentucky (Did not sign)
2. Jake Eliopoulos, LHP, Ontario HS (Did not sign)
3. Jake Barrett, RHP, Arizona HS (Did not sign)
3. Jake Marisnick, OF, California HS
6x- K.C. Hobson, OF, California HS
15x – Andrew Hutchinson, RHP, Florida HS
18x – Daniel Webb, RHP, Florida JC

Ah, the amateur draft. What was once the strength of the organization became a weakness during the Ricciardi regime, and that was on full display when the organization failed to sign three of its top four draft picks in ’09. The club managed to get Jenkins signed, but he has yet to throw a pitch for the club. As well, Marisnick, Webb, Hobson, and Hutchinson all failed to sign in time to receive valuable development instruction during the ’09 season.

The organization received compensatory picks for the three players that did not sign in ’09, but the club loses some leverage; if the players they choose in those positions in ’10 do not sign, then the club does not receive compensation in 2011… and you can bet the players’ advisers will be all over that.

2008 1st Round: David Cooper, 1B, California
2. Kenny Wilson, OF, Florida HS
3. Andrew Liebel, RHP, Long Beach State

Another somewhat uninspired draft. The club wanted Brett Wallace (and eventually got him) but settled for Cooper in the draft. After a solid debut, the first baseman looked a little lost at double-A and hit just .258/.340/.389 with a .131 ISO in 473 at-bats. His walk rate of 11.0% brings some hope with it, and the strikeout rate was reasonable at 19.5% if the left-handed hitter can find his power stroke. With below-average defense, Cooper is all offense.

Wilson was a bit of a surprise in the second round. After years of avoiding raw, athletic players the organization is still learning how to develop them properly and this speedster needs to harness his swing (30.8 K%, .093 ISO in low-A). He nabbed 37 bases in 49 attempts but missed time due to injury and appeared in just 95 games on the season.

Third-rounder Liebel is not flashy; he’s more of a durable, workhorse-type with an average fastball and good control (2.42 BB/9 in high-A). He posted a 3.66 FIP in the Florida State League and received two late-season starts in double-A. His ground-ball rate was just shy of 50%.

The club scored with reliever Danny Farquhar in the 10th round (mid-90s fastball, crazy movement and 51% GB rate), as he slips into the Top 10 list at the expense of a few less-developed prospects. Tyler Pastornicky (5th round) is an intriguing shortstop with good speed (57 steals in 75 tries) but limited power. Right-hander Bobby Bell (18th) also had a nice ’09 season (10.46 K/9, 50% GB rate in 96.1 innings) and seems fully recovered from injuries suffered while playing college ball for Rice University.

2007 1st Round: Kevin Ahrens, 3B, Texas HS
1. J.P. Arencibia, C, Tennessee
1S. Brett Cecil, LHP, Maryland
1S. Justin Jackson, SS, North Carolina HS
1S. Trystan Magnuson, RHP, Louisville
2. John Tolisano, 2B, Florida HS
2. Eric Eiland, OF, Texas HS
3. Alan Farina, RHP, Clemson

With seven picks before the third round, the club looked poised to really infuse some depth and talent into the minor league system. Unfortunately, the organization has not had much luck developing prep picks (outside of Travis Snider, a rare talent) after years of focusing on collegiate picks only. Ahrens (.215/.282/.302), Jackson (.213/.321/.269), Tolisano (.232/.305/.379), and Eiland (.194/.289/.258) have all underperformed – but the quartet is also still young.

Arencibia had a breakout ’08 season but slipped while playing in triple-A in ’09. Despite that fact, he made the Top 10 list based on his potential. Cecil contributed to the Majors in ’09 and made 17 starts for Toronto after spending much of his college career in the bullpen. Magnuson had a poor ’08 season in the rotation in low-A ball, but he moved back to the bullpen in ’09 and reached double-A. Farina has been slowed by injuries but he has a good fastball.

Left-hander Marc Rzepczynski (5th round) could end up being the steal of the draft for the Jays. The left-hander made 11 starts for Toronto in ’09 and gets a ton of ground balls (51.2% in the Majors). Randy Boone (7th) is another good ground-ball pitcher (53.6 GB%). Second baseman Brad Emaus (11th) should serve as an offensive-minded utility player in the Scott Spiezio mold. Outfielder Darin Mastroianni (16th) had a nice ’09 season by reaching double-A and he could also develop into a useful part-time player after nabbing 70 bases in 85 tries and hitting .301/.400/.370 with a 13.4% walk rate between high-A and double-A.

2006 1st Round: Travis Snider, OF, Washington HS
2. None
3. None
x- Graham Godfrey, RHP, College of Charleston

Snider makes this draft, which is a good thing since the club did not have second- or third-round picks. Snider struggled in 77 big-league games in ’09 by hitting .241/.328/.419 but his potential remains massive. He just needs to trim his strikeout rate (32.4%) and stop swinging at so many pitcher’s pitches.

Godfrey was used (along with Kristian Bell) to obtain Marco Scutaro from the A’s, which turned out to be one of Ricciardi’s best deals, as it netted the Jays two years of the infielder and then two draft picks (34th, 78th overall), as he recently signed with Boston as a free agent.

Up Next: The Toronto Blue Jays Top 10 Prospects

General Manager: Ruben Amaro Jr.
Farm Director: Steve Noworyta
Scouting Director: Marti Wolever

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

This organization definitely has a different feel after the Roy Halladay/Cliff Lee trades. The loss of prospects Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor and Travis D’Arnaud to the Blue Jays (Taylor later got flipped to Oakland) hurts the overall depth of the Top 10 list, and the players that came back from Seattle were not of an equal value. Beyond Brown there are a lot of question marks.

1. Domonic Brown, OF, Double-A
DOB: September 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2006 20th round – Georgia HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

The club is lucky to still have Brown, aka the player Toronto really wanted in the Roy Halladay trade. The 2010 season could be the year that Brown vaults into elite prospect status, if he’s not already there for most people. The outfielder is a speed/power threat with two straight seasons of 20-plus steals and an ISO of .214 at high-A in ’09 (His .177 ISO in double-A wasn’t bad, either). Overall, he hit .298/.376/.494 on the season. One minor knock on Brown to this point has been his durability. Injuries have kept him from appearing in more than 114 games over the past three seasons. Of concern, as well, is the jump in strikeout rate last season (20.2 in high-A, 25.2% in double-A) but that is to be somewhat expected with a jump in his power output. His walk rate remained solid (12.1 in high-A, 8.6% in double-A).

2. Phillippe Aumont, RHP, Double-A
DOB: January 1989 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – Quebec HS (Seattle)
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-95 mph fastball, slider, change-up

The top player acquired in the surprising Cliff Lee trade with Seattle, Aumont is armed with a big-time fastball but his secondary pitches leave something to be desired. Despite that fact (and a history of injury problems), his new organization is planning to stick him back in the starting rotation. Drafted in the first round as a raw Canadian prep pitcher, Aumont quickly reached double-A in less than two seasons (in part due to Seattle’s aggressive approach). The 21-year-old pitcher’s ’09 season was solid. He began the year in high-A – in a very good hitter’s league – and posted a 3.53 FIP while allowing 24 hits in 33.1 innings of work (thanks in part to a .264 BABIP). He showed OK control with a walk rate of 3.24 BB/9 and a solid strikeout rate of 9.45 K/9. That whiff rate jumped to 12.23 K/9 upon his promotion to double-A, but his walk rate also rose to 5.60 BB/9. His BABIP-allowed jumped to .436 and his LOB% plummeted to an unlucky 59.5%. Aumont will be a pitcher to watch closely in 2010, as he is one of the most volatile prospects in the game.

3. Trevor May, RHP, Low-A
DOB: September 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 4th round – Washington HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

May had an excellent season, but caution must be used due to his limited sample size. In 15 low-A starts, the right-hander posted a strikeout rate of 11.06 K/9 and allowed just 58 hits in 77.1 innings of work. He had control issues and had a walk rate of 5.00 BB/9 but a HR/9 rate of 0.35 helped to keep the damage to a minimum. May also benefited from luck with a LOB% of 80.0%. He needs to try and get his ground-ball rate up above 40%. The youngster could begin 2010 back in low-A or the organization could be aggressive and move him up to high-A. Either way, he needs to get 25 starts this year so we can see what his potential is with a larger workload.

4. Juan Ramirez, RHP, High-A
DOB: August 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Nicaragua)
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 90-95 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Another piece obtained in the Lee deal with Seattle, Ramirez has a nice fastball but he is still trying to put all the pieces together. The right-handed prospect had a rough time playing in a good hitter’s park in high-A in ’09. He posted a 4.76 FIP and allowed 153 hits in 142.1 innings. His strikeout rate also dropped below 8.20 K/9 for the first time in three years to 7.02 K/9. His walk rate, though, remained respectable at 3.35 BB/9 and he kept his line-drive rate to 12%. Despite a 42% ground-ball rate (which is OK, not great), Ramirez allowed quite a few homers (1.14 HR/9) so he’ll need to improve that for 2010. At worst, he should develop into back-of-the-rotation starter, with the potential to be a No. 3. A set-up role in the bullpen would not be out of the question.

5. Sebastian Valle, C, Low-A
DOB: July 1990 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Mexico)
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Valle has the makings of a solid offensive-minded catcher, although his wOBA plummeted to .301 in his first taste of full-season ball in ’09. At low-A ball, the catcher hit just .223/.313/.331 in 157 at-bats. In short-season ball, though, the left-handed hitter posted a .390 wOBA and a triple-slash line of .307/.335/.531 in 192 at-bats. Valle showed a better walk rate at low-A (8.9%) than in short-season ball (4.9%) and his +20% strikeout rate is a tad high, although his ISO rate was .224 at the junior level. He needs to improve against southpaws, as his OPS was .659 against them, compared to .815 against right-handers. Defensively, the Mexico native is a work-in-progress and he threw out just 18% of base runners in ’09.

6. Tyson Gillies, OF, High-A
DOB: October 1988 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2006 25th round – Iowa Western CC (Seattle)
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

The is reason to be excited about Gillies, but the outfielder was playing in one of the best hitter’s leagues in all of baseball. His .411 wOBA is nice, as is his triple-slash line of .341/.430/.486, but his BABIP was .395. There are two things about his game that he cannot luck into, though: his walk rate of 10.1% and his 44 steals (although he was caught 19 times). The 2010 season will be a telling one for Gillies, who will be moving to a more neutral league. To have success, he just needs to keep doing what he’s doing: Hitting a lot of ground balls (61% in ’09) and using his speed to get on base (and then into scoring position).

7. Anthony Gose, OF, Low-A
DOB: August 1990 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 2nd round – California HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

In some regards, Gose is similar to Gillies – only more raw. Gose had a respectable first full season in the minors and hit .259/.323/.353 in 510 at-bats. His speed was on full display as he stole 76 bases in 96 attempts. To fully take advantage of his speed to its full extent, though, he needs to improve his .323 OBP and 6.1% walk rate. The strikeout rate is also far too high (21.6%) for someone with an .094 ISO rate. Like Gillies, Gose does a nice job of keeping the ball on the ground (64 GB%). Oddly, the left-handed hitter fared much better against southpaws than right-handers in ’09 (.824 vs .638 OPS).

8. Antonio Bastardo, LHP, Majors
DOB: September 1985 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 87-92 mph fastball, plus change-up, slider

It was a busy year for Bastardo, who pitched at five different levels, spent time on the DL and made his MLB debut. In six Major League appearances, the lefty posted a 5.08 FIP but showed solid control with a walk rate of 3.42. He spent the majority of the season in double-A, where he posted a 2.03 FIP and allowed 22 hits in 36.0 innings. His strikeout rate was an eye-popping 10.25 K/9 and his control was spot-on at 1.75 BB/9. A starter in the minors, Bastardo could make the Phillies bullpen in 2010, as he possesses a slightly-above average heater for a lefty and good slider. His change-up was a well-below-average pitch in his brief MLB debut.

9. John Mayberry, OF, Majors
DOB: December 1983 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 1st round – Stanford University (Texas)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 1

A former two-time No. 1 draft pick (out of high school and college), Mayberry’s dad (of the same name) was also a pretty good hitter in his day. The younger Mayberry has massive power potential but he has yet to show an ability to hit for a high average in pro ball, which drags down his overall numbers – especially considering his OBP is relatively low, as well. The prospect showed his power potential by mashing the ball (.263 ISO) in a 39-game MLB trial in ’09. He spent the majority of the year in triple-A where he hit .256/.332/.456 with an ISO of .199 in 316 at-bats. Despite his size (6’6”, 230 lbs), Mayberry also possesses the ability to steal 10 bases with regular playing time. Already 26, the outfielder (who can also play first base) is big-league ready but there is no spot for him. If he makes the 2010 opening day roster, it will be as a part-time player – or due to an injury to Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez or Jayson Werth.

10. Scott Mathieson, RHP, Double-A
DOB: February 1984 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2002 17th round – British Columbia HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 1
Repertoire: 91-97 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Mathieson is a great story and he gets the nod over some other players like Jarred Cosart and Domingo Santana, both of whom played in the Gulf Coast League (rookie ball) this past season. He had a lot of success in the bullpen in ’09 while recovering from his second Tommy John surgery (interesting fellow Canadian hurler Shawn Hill, now with the Jays, also underwent a second procedure last June and is on the comeback trail). In 33.0 combined innings in ’09, the right-hander allowed 22 hits (.188 AVG), a walk rate of 3.27 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 8.45 K/9. He also gave up just one homer (0.27 HR/9) despite a low ground-ball rate (39.4%). If his elbow holds up, Mathieson could eventually see time as a closer. He will turn 26 by the time the season begins and he will likely receive some more fine-tuning in triple-A before he trusted with a big-league bullpen role. If he can continue to show good control and a blazing fastball, Mathieson could be contributing at the MLB level by mid-season.

Up Next: The Toronto Blue Jays

General Manager: Ruben Amaro Jr.
Farm Director: Steve Noworyta
Scouting Director: Marti Wolever

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-slot signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st Round: None
2. Kelly Dugan, OF, California HS
3. Kyrell Hudson, OF, Washington HS
6x – Steven Inch, RHP, Alberta HS [85-88 FB, CB, CH]
7x – Brody Colvin, RHP, Louisiana HS [89-94 FB, CB, CH]
8x – Jonathan Singleton, 1B, California HS

A bit of a surprise pick in the second round (the club’s first choice), Dugan was expected to go to Pepperdine University, but the Phillies organization convinced him to go pro. He had a slow start to his career by posting a wOBA of .288 and a triple-slash line of .233/.297/.300 in 150 at-bats. Known for having some pop, he did not go deep in his debut and his ISO rate was just .067.

Hudson appeared in just 10 games after signing and he hit .162/.225/.216 in rookie ball. Inch, a Canadian, appeared in two games after signing and allowed six runs in two innings of work.

Colvin, perhaps the best prospect grabbed in the draft, appeared in just one game after signing and did not allow a hit in two innings of work. The organization stole him away from a Louisiana State commitment and he possesses a good fastball-curveball combo.

Headed for Long Beach State, Singleton was swayed to pro ball for just $200,000 and that may end up being a steal. He had an excellent debut in rookie ball and hit .290/.395/.440 in 100 at-bats. He walked more than he struck out (1.38 BB/K) while showing solid power potential.

2008 1st Round: Anthony Hewitt, SS, Connecticut HS
1S. Zach Collier, OF, California HS
2. Anthony Gose, OF, California HS
2. Jason Knapp, RHP, New Jersey HS
3. Vance Worley, RHP, Long Beach State
3S. Jon Pettibone, RHP, California HS
4x – Trevor May, RHP, Washington HS
6x – Colby Shreve, RHP, Nevada CC
38x – Jarred Cosart, RHP, Texas HS

Although the club’s first two picks in Hewitt (.223/.255/.395 at short-season ball in ’09) and Collier (.218/.275/.319 at A-ball in ’09) have not shown much in pro ball, this was an outstanding draft for the organization, as it nabbed two Top 10 picks (Gose and May) and one that just missed (Cosart). Knapp would have been a Top 10 prospect if he had not been sent to Cleveland in the Cliff Lee deal last season.

Worley had an excellent debut, but he slipped a bit when he was rushed to double-A in ’09. The right-hander posted a 4.39 FIP and he allowed 163 hits in 153.1 innings of work. He showed good control (2.88 BB/9) but his strikeout rate was just 5.87 K/9. Worley also allowed 17 homers. Pettibone had a better year in ’09 than his 5.35 ERA would suggest in short-season ball. His FIP was just 2.61 and he was unlucky due to a high BABIP (.368) and a low LOB% (48.2%). He does need to improve his control (4.08 BB/9) but the strikeout rate was good (9.17 K/9).

The club handed Shreve a $400,000 contract to forgo his University of Arkansas commitment, despite the fact that he was due to undergo Tommy John surgery. He has yet to throw a pro pitch, but he is expected back on the mound in 2010. Cosart was a two-way player in high school with potential with the bat, but clubs coveted his mid-90s fastball. The Phillies organization got a deal done and it looks like a very smart decision. Cosart made just seven appearances in ’09 after beginning the year in extended spring training but he looked good. In 24.1 innings he allowed just 12 hits and seven walks (2.59 BB/9). He also did not give up a home run.

2007 1st Round: Joe Savery, LHP, Rice
1S. Travis D’Arnaud, C, California HS
2. Travis Mattair, 3B, Washington HS
3. Brandon Workman, RHP, Texas HS (Did not sign)
3. Matt Spencer, OF, Arizona State
x- Julian Sampson, RHP, Washington HS

This was a disappointing draft, save for D’Arnaud, who was recently sent to Toronto in the Roy Halladay deal. Third-rounder Spencer was sent to Oakland in a trade in ’08. First-rounder Savery has been a disappointment and has never fully recovered from injuries suffered in college. His command and control deserted him in ’09.

Mattair had a tough year while repeating low-A ball and hit just .236/.326/.333 in 450 at-bats. He posted a strikeout rate of 29.1K% and an ISO rate of just .098. Sampson has failed to build on his promise, thanks in part to chronically-low strikeout rates. In 69.2 high-A innings in ’09, the right-hander had a K-rate of 4.78 K/9 and allowed 93 hits (including 10 homers).

Michael Taylor was a great value in the fifth round, but he was lost in the Halladay deal.

2006 1st Round: Kyle Drabek, RHP, Texas HS
1S. Adrian Cardenas, 2B, Florida HS
2. Andrew Carpenter, RHP, Long Beach State
3. Jason Donald, SS, Arizona
x- Domonic Brown, OF, Georgia HS

The 2006 draft was another excellent one for the organization but the returns have been gutted by trades. First pick Drabek was lost in the Halladay trade. Cardenas went to Oakland in the Joe Blanton deal, and Donald went to Cleveland in the Lee trade.

On the plus side, the club also nabbed top prospect Brown in the 20th round for just $200,000. Carpenter has filled in for injuries a few times at the MLB level and looks like a future back-of-the-rotation starter or long reliever.

Up Next: The Philadelphia Phillies Top 10 Prospects

General Manager: Theo Epstein
Farm Director: Mike Hazen
Scouting Director: Amiel Sawdaye

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

There are no can’t-miss, once-in-a-decade talents on this Top 10 list, but there are a number of players who have the opportunity to really explode in 2010. You also have to love the fact that all 10 players on the list were drafted or originally signed by the Red Sox organization. You can’t fake good scouting and development.

1. Casey Kelly, RHP, High-A
DOB: October 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, plus curveball, change

The organization faced a difficult, and well-document, problem in ’09 when Kelly expressed a desire to hit and play shortstop. A compromise was made and the talented prospect spent the year as a two-way player. After hitting just .224/.305/.313 with a 29% strikeout rate in low-A, though, Kelly gave in and announced he will be a full-time pitcher in 2010. It’s a good thing, too, because the right-hander showed a lot of promise for a player whose heart was not 100% on the mound last season. In low-A ball, he allowed 32 hits in 48.1 innings, while showing outstanding control with a walk rate of just 1.68 BB/9. He also did not allow a home run while posting a FIP of 2.14. That number jumped a bit with his promotion to high-A (3.33) but Kelly still showed excellent control (1.35 BB/9) with a modest strikeout rate of 6.75 K/9. With just 46.2 innings of experience above low-A, Kelly should head back to high-A in 2010, but he could see double-A before the end of the season.

2. Ryan Westmoreland, OF, Short-Season
DOB: April 1990 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 5th round – Rhode Island HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Westmoreland’s season came to a crashing halt when he broke his collar bone, but the outfielder solidified himself as the organization’s best hitter… in just 223 at-bats. The 19 year old hit .296/.401/.484 and showed good power potential with an ISO of .188. He also displayed patience at the plate with a walk rate of 14.2%, far exceeding what you’d expect from a player his age. His strikeout rate was a little high, but his future power output could eventually justify the number. Westmoreland was also a force on the base paths by stealing 19 bases in as many attempts. Sure it was short-season ball but a .427 wOBA is impressive no matter how you slice it.

3. Junichi Tazawa, RHP, Majors
DOB: June 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 non-drafted international free agent (Japan)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, plus splitter, curveball, slider

Tazawa’s mad mix of pitches cut a swath through double-A line-ups but the Japanese import found the going a little tougher in triple-A and the Majors (albeit in a smaller sample size). The right-hander allowed just 80 hits in 98.0 innings in double-A, while also posting a strikeout rate of 8.08 K/9. He was also aided by solid control (2.39 BB/9) and some luck (.277 BABIP, 79.8 LOB%). In six MLB appearances, Tazawa allowed 43 hits in 25.1 innings and his strikeout rate dropped to just 4.62 K/9. His ground-ball rate in the Majors of 24.5% was ugly, and hitters had little trouble with his 90 mph fastball (-2.54 runs “above” average per 100 pitches). Despite the bump in the road, Tazawa is still learning, as well as adjusting to life in North America, so his potential remains high.

4. Josh Reddick, OF, Majors
DOB: February 1987 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2006 17th round – Middle Georgia College
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

Reddick got off to a solid start in ’09 at double-A and hit .277/.352/.520 in 256 at-bats. He showed outstanding power with an ISO rate of .242. His base running, after nabbing 14 bases in 17 ties in ’08, was almost non-existent as he was successful just five times in 10 attempts. Reddick’s numbers were terrible in 18 triple-A games and poor in 27 MLB games. His walk rate was good in double-A at 10.5%, but it dropped to 7.6% in triple-A and 3.2% in the Majors. On the plus side, six of his 10 MLB hits were for extra bases (59 at-bats). Reddick will certainly receive more seasoning in triple-A in 2010 but he should be ready to compete for a full-time gig in 2011… if there’s an opportunity.

5. Lars Anderson, 1B, Double-A
DOB: September 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2006 18th round – California HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

It was an ugly, ugly year for Anderson… and his struggles were well-documented. After hitting .316 in 41 double-A games in ’08, the first-base prospect spent the entire season at that level but hit just .233/.328/.345 with an ISO of .112 in 447 at-bats. There were a few good signs, including the fact that he maintained a solid walk rate (12.3%) and his strikeout rate did not skyrocket (25.5%, similar to his career norm – which admittedly is high to begin with). Anderson’s wOBA of .315 was .060 below his previous low of .374 at low-A in ’07. As a slow-footed player whose game requires plus power output, he needs to get that ground-ball rate up from 54.8%. Anderson will be just 22 for much of 2010, so he has time to turn things around.

6. Stolmy Pimentel, RHP, Low-A
DOB: February 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, plus change-up, curveball

Pimentel’s ’09 numbers do not wow. He allowed a lot of hits: 135 in 117.2 innings, but he put a lot of pitches in the strike zone (2.22 BB/9) at a level where players pretty much hack at everything. He also had some bad luck with a BABIP of .350. His strikeout rate was solid at 7.88 K/9 and his FIP was OK at 3.62. Pimentel’s ground-ball rate of 39.5% needs to improve if he’s going to survive the upper levels of the system. He turns 20 in February so time is on his side.

7. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, High-A
DOB: August 1989 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 6th round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Simply getting back to the baseball diamond after dealing with a cancer scare would have been impressive enough, but Rizzo went out and turned himself into one of the best prospects in the system. The first baseman hit .298/.365/.494 in 245 low-A at-bats before moving up to high-A where he hit .295/.371/.420. Rizzo’s power output dropped from .196 to .125 ISO with the move, but his walk rate improved (9.1 to 10.9%), as did his strikeout rate (24.5 to 19.5%). Rizzo, though, was aided by some nifty BABIPs of .364 and .354. Although he held his own against both right-handed and left-handed pitchers, his OPS was .862 against righties and just .721 against southpaws. He should open 2010 back in high-A but could move up to double-A as he prepares to breathe down Anderson’s neck.

8. Derrik Gibson, SS, Short-Season
DOB: December 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 2nd round – Delaware HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

A personal favorite of mine, Gibson received his second straight year of short-season ball and looked over-matched in a brief 14-game trial in low-A ball. In short-season ball, Gibson hit .290/.395/.380 and had a .386 wOBA in 255 at-bats. He showed good patience for a future top-of-the-order MLB hitter with a walk rate of 12.9% and his strikeout rate was reasonable at 16.5%. He’s performed poorly against southpaws for two straight seasons (.566, .621 OPS). After nabbing 14 steals in as many tries in ’08, Gibson was successful in 28 of his 33 tries in ’09. Defensively, he’s expected to move off of shortstop, which takes a bite out of his value.

9. Ryan Kalish, OF, Double-A
DOB: March 1988 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2006 9th round – New Jersey HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

I’m a little more bearish on Kalish than a lot of evaluators because he has yet to do anything really spectacular in four seasons. The outfielder had a nice year in ’09 and he hit .304/.434/.513 in 115 high-A at-bats. Moved up to double-A, his numbers normalized a bit with a line of .271/.341/.440. At the senior level, he posted a walk rate of 9.6% and a strikeout rate of 22.3%, which is a tad high given his career power numbers. I will certainly jump on the Kalish train in 2010 if he can maintain a solid batting average while also at least equaling his ’09 power numbers. After stealing 21 bases in 27 attempts in ’09, he could develop into a 20-20 player in the Majors if everything clicks. With everything said, I wouldn’t be shocked if he broke out in a big way in 2010 and made me look foolish for doubting him.

10. Michael Bowden, RHP, Majors
DOB: September 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 supplemental 1st round – Illinois HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

The knock on Bowden is that he’s not flashy. But there is something to be said for consistent and reliable. Pitching at double-A or higher since ’07, Bowden has posted solid numbers, although his FIP broke 4.00 for the first time while pitching for triple-A (4.08). Even so, he took advantage of some luck (.262 BABIP) and allowed just 106 hits in 126.1 innings, while showing OK control (3.35 BB/9) and a modest strikeout rate (6.27 K/9). He’ll do himself a favor if he can get the ball down in the zone more often and increase his ground-ball rate from the 31.1% he posted in triple-A. Called up to Boston to eat up some innings in the bullpen, Bowden did not have much fun – or luck. His 9.56 ERA was softened by his 5.16 FIP and he posted a LOB% rate of 48.4.

Up Next: The Philadelphia Phillies

General Manager: Theo Epstein
Farm Director: Mike Hazen
Scouting Director: Amiel Sawdaye

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-slot signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st Round: Reymond Fuentes, OF, Puerto Rico HS
2. Alex Wilson, RHP, Texas A&M
3. David Renfroe, SS, Mississippi HS
7x – Madison Younginer, RHP, South Carolina HS
9x – Kendal Volz, RHP, Baylor
10x – Brandon Jacobs, OF, Georgia HS
11x – Jason Thompson, SS, Tennessee HS
26x – Miles Head, 3B, Georgia HS

Despite the possibility of being hamstrung during each amateur draft due to consistently-late picks from finishing with such a good record each season, this first-class organization uses its considerable finances to award above-slot contacts to deserving talents. Over the past four drafts, the club has handed out 19 above-slot deals worth $200,000 or more, the highest number from any one club.

Considered a bit of a project before the ’09 draft, Fuentes enjoyed his debut in rookie ball by hitting .290/.331/.379 in 145 at-bats. He showed some rough edges in his base running ability and was caught five times in 14 attempts. He could also stand to be more patient at the plate after posting a walk rate of 4.4%.

Health woes prevented Wilson from receiving the kind of money he was looking for and the organization may have a real steal after handing him less than $500,000. Wilson appeared healthy in his debut, as he made 10 starts and allowed just 10 hits in 36.0 innings (He was on a pitch count) in short-season ball. He showed solid control with a walk rate of 1.75 BB/9 and his strikeout rate was good at 8.25 K/9. Wilson also did not allow a home run. Despite his 10 starts, the right-hander profiles as a late-game reliever, if he can maintain his peak fastball velocity for an entire season.

A $750,000 contract swayed Jacobs away from a football ride at Auburn University. After signing, though, he appeared in just six games. Despite his football-sized body, he’s an excellent athlete, but raw as a baseball player. Thompson had just one plate appearance after signing and he walked. Head received 32 plate appearances in ’09 and hit just .103 with eight strikeouts.

Youngsters Renfroe, Younginer, and Volz did not appear in a pro game after turning pro so they’ll make their debuts in 2010. Renfroe, a two-way prep player, has the highest upside of the trio and could reach low-A ball in ’10 with a strong spring performance although he’s more likely to begin the year in extended spring training.

2008 1st Round: Casey Kelly, RHP/SS, Florida HS
1S. Bryan Price, RHP, Rice
2. Derrik Gibson, SS, Delaware HS
3. Stephen Fife, RHP, Utah
4x – Pete Hissey, OF, Pennsylvania HS
5x – Ryan Westmoreland, OF, Rhode Island HS
6x – Ryan Lavarnway, C, Yale
13x – Tyler Wilson, RHP, Georgia HS
27x – Hunter Cervenka, LHP, Texas HS
35x – Carson Blair, SS, Texas HS

The club nabbed three Top 10 prospects with this draft: Kelly, Gibson, and Westmoreland. Price was traded to Cleveland in the Victor Martinez deal. Fife has shown some potential, but the ground-ball pitcher was hurt by a high BABIP in high-A ball in ’09. Hissey is a speedy sleeper to keep an eye on, especially if he can either trim his strikeout rate (23.8%) or improve his strength (.068 ISO). In other words, he needs to commit to being a slash-and-run guy, or drive the ball more.

Lavarnway had one of the quietest 21-homer seasons in ’09, which was odd considering his high-profile organization. He also slugged 35 doubles and posted a .255 ISO rate, while maintaining a solid batting average of .285, thanks to a high (especially for a catcher) BABIP of .348. On the downside, his value takes a hit because he’s probably not going to stick behind the plate.

Wilson, Cervenka, and Blair have all under-performed, but Blair’s value is increasing as he makes the conversion to backstop.

The club took a run at prep star Alex Meyer, a Boras client, in the 20th round after he dropped out of the first couple of rounds due to signability concerns, but he followed through on his commitment to the University of Kentucky.

2007 1st Round: Nick Hagadone, LHP, Washington
1S. Ryan Dent, SS, California HS
2. Hunter Morris, 1B, Alabama HS (Did not sign)
3. Brock Huntzinger, RHP, Indiana HS
5x – Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Texas HS
6x – Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Florida HS
7x – David Mailman, 1B, North Carolina HS
16x – Austin Bailey, RHP, Alabama HS
23x – Drake Britton, LHP, Texas HS

The club went prep crazy in ’07 and the only player signed to a $200,000+ deal from a college program, Nick Hagadone, was traded to Cleveland last season. From the group above, only Rizzo currently projects as a Top 10 talent.

Dent has reached high-A ball, but his bat looks like it’s going to produce utility-player offense. Huntzinger, who posted a 3.18 FIP in low-A ball, is a solid sleeper candidate in 2010. Mailman is another sleeper if he can improve his consistency after posting a wOBA of .379 in the first half of the year in low-A ball, compared to .242 in the second half in high-A.

Middlebrooks had a respectable first full year in the minors, but his strikeout rate of 32.9% needs to come way down for him to succeed at higher levels. Bailey (shoulder, suspension) appeared in just one game in two seasons, and Britton is recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Hunter Strickland was a great value in the 18th round, but he was traded to Pittsburgh last season in the Adam LaRoche deal. The club also took a run at two players that slid due to signability concerns: Yasmani Grandal, and Nick Tepesch, but both players went to college.

2006 1st Round: Jason Place, OF, South Carolina HS
1. Daniel Bard, RHP, North Carolina
1S. Kris Johnson, LHP, Wichita State
1S. Caleb Clay, RHP, Alabama HS
2. Justin Masterson, RHP, San Diego State
3. Aaron Bates, 1B, North Carolina State
3. Bryce Cox, RHP, Rice
x- Ryan Kalish, OF, New Jersey HS
x- Ty Weeden, C, Oklahoma HS
x- Lars Anderson, 1B, California HS

Bard is the closer-in-waiting in Boston, and will likely serve as the set-up man to Jonathan Papelbon in 2010. Place has been all over the, er, place with his performances but it’s hard to project him as a full-time big leaguer due to his low power output and high strikeout numbers. Masterson was traded to Cleveland in ’09. Anderson had a rough ’09 season, but he’s still a Top-10 talent, as is Kalish.

The club missed with Johnson and Weeden. Clay has produced underwhelming numbers, but he’s still young. Bates made his MLB debut in ’09, due to a lack of first base depth in the upper minors and is basically a quad-A player. Cox’ value has diminished to that of a middle reliever at the MLB level.

Outfielder Josh Reddick was a steal in the 17th round and he is on the club’s Top 10 prospect list, due out on Monday. First baseman Matt LaPorta, a college junior, turned down the club as a 14th-rounder and was a first-round pick by Milwaukee in ’07 as a senior. Nick Hill would have been a nice grab in the 47th round, but he went to Seattle in the ’07 draft and could appear in the Majors in 2010.

Up Next: The Boston Red Sox Top 10 Prospects