General Manager: Michael Hill
Farm Director: Brian Chattin
Scouting Director: Stan Meek

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

Say what you will about the lack of overall depth in the system beyond the first two or three prospects on this list, but the Marlins organization is one of few clubs that will have drafted (or originally signed) all 10 players on the list. That says something for the organization’s scouts and front office. The club definitely is hurting in the pitching department, but a lot of that comes from rushing its young arms in past seasons.

1. Michael Stanton, OF, Double-A
DOB: November 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 2nd round – California HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

I personally don’t meet many 6’5” 20 year olds in my everyday life, so it’s easy to see where Stanton’s massive power comes from when he takes to the field. The outfielder posted a .283 ISO rate in high-A ball in ’09 and followed that up with a rate of .229 in double-A. Stanton’s numbers dropped pretty significantly in other areas, though, after the promotion. His wOBA went from .433 to .344. He also saw his BABIP drop from .333 to a .288. His strikeout rate jumped from 25.0 to 33.1%, while his walk rate plummeted from 13.5 to 9.4%. Stanton obviously has massive power potential as a future MLBer, but it will be his contact rate that dictates just how big of an impact he has… The good news is that he has plenty of time to make some adjustments in his approach, as he has two more full seasons before he has to be added to the 40-man roster (and begin to burn through his three minor-league options).

2. Logan Morrison, 1B, Double-A
DOB: August 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2005 22nd round – Louisiana HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

If not for an injury-riddled season (He appeared in just 79 games), Morrison probably would have received playing time in Florida at some point during the ’09 season, especially after Gaby Sanchez disappointed in a limited opportunity. Morrison does not project to be a power-hitting first baseman, but he is more of a gap hitter (15-20 homers) that makes consistent contact and hits for a good batting average. He broke out in a big way in ’08 by hitting .332/.402/.494 (.377 BABIP) while playing in a pitchers’ league. In ’09, Morrison hit .277/.411/.442 in 278 at-bats at double-A. Although his average took a hit over the previous season, the first baseman did see his walk rate jump from 10.5 to 18.5%, and his BB/K was an outstanding 1.37. He even has the ability to swipe a few bases with heads-up base running.

3. Matt Dominguez, 3B, High-A
DOB: August 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – California HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

It’s been an up-and-down career for the former first round draft pick but we saw an encouraging sign or two in ’09. Dominguez spent the majority of the year in high-A and hit a modest .262/.333/.420 with a .346 wOBA in 381 at-bats. The third baseman, with a reputation for having a strong glove, has seen his walk rate improve each season since signing in ’07 and it reached a career-high of 9.1% in high-A. It even jumped up to 12.6% during a small-sample-size display (31 games) in double-A at the end of the season. Dominguez also suffered from a low BABIP of .295 in ’09. If he’s going to be an impact player, he needs to improve his work against right-handed pitchers, as his OPS is just .725 (compared to .831 vs southpaws). Dominguez projects to be an average hitting third baseman in the Majors with a good glove.

4. Gaby Sanchez, 1B, Majors
DOB: September 1983 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 4th round – University of Miami
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

Already 26, Sanchez may have missed his window of opportunity to seize the starting first-base gig in Florida. Injuries and inconsistencies plagued him early in ’09, although he finished with solid overall numbers in triple-A: .290/.375/.478 in 314 at-bats. Like Morrison, Sanchez is not your typical slugger, although he has more present power than the younger prospect (.188 ISO in triple-A). His walk rate of 11.5% was actually his lowest rate in four seasons and his strikeout rate was a solid 13.7%. He’s not flashy but Sanchez could be a cheap first base option for a few years. He could also slide into a pinch-hit/utility infield role on a championship-caliber team, as he’s also seen some time at third base (but isn’t very good there).

5. Ryan Tucker, RHP, Triple-A
DOB: December 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 supplemental first round – California HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 91-96 mph fastball, change-up, slider

You’re not a Florida Marlins’ pitching prospect if you haven’t dealt with injuries, and Tucker got his prerequisite injury out of the way (hopefully) in ’09. He appeared in just six games. The right-hander’s woes came on the heels of a season that saw him make his MLB debut with 13 appearances. He showed his inexperience by allowing a FIP of 6.46 and his fastball was very ineffective, according to his Pitch Type Value score of -2.11 wFB/C. If he can sharpen his command, though, the 91-96 mph pitch could be a real weapon against MLB hitters. He’s spent much of his time pitching out of the rotation, but Tucker appears destined for the bullpen, where he can focus on a two-pitch mix.

6. Bryan Peterson, OF, Double-A
DOB: April 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2007 4th round – University of California-Irvine
MLB ETA: 40-Man Roster: Options:

I highlighted Petersen as a potential breakout candidate for ’09 but it didn’t happen for him. With that said, he still had a nice season in double-A and that breakout could still come. Overall, he hit .297/.368/.413 in 431 at-bats at double-A. Petersen maintained a solid walk rate at 11.4% and his strikeout rate continued to drop, bottoming out at 15.3%. His power output dropped too, though, and his ISO was just .116. He also struggled on the base paths and was caught 12 times in 25 attempts. If Petersen’s power does not improve (He hit 23 homers in ’08), he’ll likely end up as a fourth outfielder in the Reed Johnson mold. The loss of fellow outfield prospect John Raynor to Pittsburgh – during the Rule 5 draft – could help either Petersen or Scott Cousins see playing time in the Majors in 2010. Fun Fact: Petersen went to the same high school as Matt Dominguez (and former Red Sox outfielder Dwight Evans).

7. Scott Cousins, OF, Double-A
DOB: January 1985 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2006 3rd round – University of San Francisco
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

A flashier but less consistent version of Petersen, Cousins is also a left-handed hitter but, unlike Petersen, he struggled to hit southpaws (.226/.297/.383) and projects as more of a platoon player. Overall, he hit .263/.323/.448 in 482 at-bats at double-A. Cousins showed some pop with an ISO of .185 and he also stole 27 bases in 36 attempts. His walk rate was a little low, but respectable, at 8.0% and his strikeout rate was high at 22.0%. With 31 doubles, 11 triples and 12 homers, he does a little bit of everything.

8. Brad Hand, LHP, Low-A
DOB: March 1990 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 2nd round – Minnesota HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Hand slipped on a lot of prospect lists after his 2009 season and it’s not hard to understand why, but he still has a lot of potential. The southpaw was drafted out of Minnesota, and northern prospects are traditionally rawer than those that live in climates where they can play ball all year round. And he’s not a soft-tossing lefty carving up beer-league hitters with a mid-80s fastball and pinpoint control; his fastball has shown some modest zip at times. He gave up a lot of hits, with 130 allowed in 127.2 innings, but his 4.23 FIP was better than his 4.86 ERA. His walk rate was 4.65 BB/9 (and he also threw 22 wild pitches) but his strikeout rate was encouraging at 8.60 K/9. His ground-ball rate was just shy of 50%, so with better command he could see that improve. Hand had a foundational season and I look for him to start making a name for himself in 2010… I’m dying to use this headline: Brad… Give yourself a Hand. (That’s the Cistulli in me).

9. Isaac Galloway, OF, Low-A
DOB: October 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 8th round – California HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

I hummed and hawed about Galloway’s inclusion on the Top 10 list. I lean more heavily on stats that any other minor-league writer out there (Law, Goldstein, Callis, Sickels, etc.) so it was hard to justify Galloway as a Top 10 prospect on numbers alone, but his tools certainly make him a player to watch in a rather thin system (as far as depth goes). His wOBA was just .305 and his triple-slash line was an ugly .268/.293/.382 in 340 low-A at-bats (despite a .355 BABIP). Galloway, just 20, posted a sad walk rate at 3.4%, up from 2.0% in his debut in ’08. The ISO was just .119 and his strikeout rate was high at 26.2%. If the organization is smart, it will start Galloway out at low-A again in 2010 with a quick trigger finger to high-A if he shows significant improvement.

10. Jhan Marinez, RHP, High-A
DOB: August 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Marinez makes the cut thanks to his fastball, which can occasionally creep into the mid-90s. I would, though, like to see him improve on his ground-ball rate, which was just 39.5% in ’09. He deserves credit for reaching high-A in ’09, as he threw just 21.0 innings during the previous two seasons (both in rookie ball). Marinez’ walk rate needs to improve, as it was 4.19% in ’09 but he survived the control issues, in part, because of the .232 BABIP rate that he allowed. The majority of his command/control issues come against left-handed hitters, as he posted a walk rate of 5.40 BB/9 against them this past season. The organization seems to introduce a new hard-throwing reliever each season, so it will be interesting to see if Marinez can “stick” as a solid bullpen option for the future while holding off some other pitchers like Daniel Jennings, Tom Koehler, and Elih Villanueva.

Up Next: The Boston Red Sox

General Manager: Michael Hill
Farm Director: Brian Chattin
Scouting Director: Stan Meek

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-slot signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st Round: Chad James, LHP, Oklahoma HS
2. Bryan Berglund, RHP, California HS
3. Marquise Cooper, OF, California HS

The draft spending was kept in check in ’09. The club still nabbed a couple of interesting arms in the first two rounds in James and Berglund. The former player saw his stock rise quite a bit during the prep season and his fastball jumped into the low 90s, while he already featured a good, if not plus, curveball. James did not make an appearance in pro ball after signing and he should begin his career in extended spring training and then, likely, rookie ball. Berglund also did not make his debut in ’09 and, like James, his stock rose quite a bit during his senior year of high school. His fastball crept into the low-90s, but it has yet to remain there with an consistency.

Cooper is a raw athlete, who played both baseball and football in high school. He hit .193/.317/.259 in 140 at-bats. Just 5’9”, power will likely never be his game (.057 ISO), but he does have speed to burn despite getting caught stealing four times in 10 attempts.

2008 1st Round: Kyle Skipworth, C, California high school
2. Brad Hand, LHP, Minnesota HS
3. Edgar Olmos, LHP, California HS
8x – Isaac Galloway, OF, California HS

Skipworth has been a disappointment. He hit just .208/.263/.348 for an ugly wOBA of .278 in 264 at-bats in low-A ball in ’09. His strikeout rate was an alarming 34.5%. The catcher also threw out just 20% of base runners. The good news: He’s still just 19.

Hand had a nice debut but he struggled a bit in his first full season by allowing 130 hits in 127.2 innings. His walk rate also jumped to 4.65 BB/9. On the positive side, he posted a good strikeout rate at 8.60 K/9 and his ground-ball rate was just shy of 50%. Injuries have prevented Olmos from realizing his potential. The 19 year old has appeared in just four starts since signing in ’08. In those 10.2 innings, though, he’s allowed just six hits with 14 strikeouts.

Galloway sneaks onto the Top 10 list due to his potential and an overall lack of depth in the system. Daniel Jennings (9th round) could prove to be a useful bullpen arm and he reached double-A in ’09.

2007 1st Round: Matt Dominguez, 3B, California high school
2. Mike Stanton, OF, California HS
3. Jameson Smith, C, California CC

The club scored some good value in this draft with both Dominguez and Stanton showing up on the Top 10 list. Fourth rounder Bryan Petersen, an outfielder, also made the list. Smith reached high-A in ’09 but he hit just .243/.333/.318 in 148 at-bats. He has shown little power (.074 ISO) and his strikeout rate is still too high despite hitting a career low this past season of 21.6%.

2006 1st Round: Brett Sinkbeil, RHP, Missouri State
1S. Chris Coghlan, IF/OF, Mississippi
2. Tom Hickman, OF, Georgia HS
3. Torre Langley, C, Georgia HS
3. Scott Cousins, OF, San Francisco

Sinkbeil has been a disappointment and still posted a 6.15 ERA in ’09 despite moving to the bullpen in triple-A. He allowed 106 hits in 82.0 innings of work. He also had a walk rate of 4.83 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 5.60 K/9. On the plus side, the club made up for that pick with the addition of Coghlan, the National League’s Rookie of the Year. Eventually, though, he’ll under-perform for a left-fielder and is much better suited to second base once the club can shed Dan Uggla’s contract.

Cousins has out-performed both players and squeaked onto the Top 10 list.

Hickman has yet to show much life with the bat, mainly due to his perennial +30% strikeout rate. Langley hit just .223/.261/.391 in 229 low-A at-bats in ’09 and did himself no favors with a walk rate of 4.6%. If he can show a little more control, Jay Buente (14th round) could see some time in middle relief in the Majors, thanks to his good strikeout rate (8.26 K/9) and ground-ball rate (54%). He has a low-90s fastball and a splitter.

Up Next: The Florida Marlins Top 10 Prospects

General Manager: Andrew Friedman
Farm Director: Mitch Lukevics
Scouting Director: R.J. Harrison

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

Pitching. Pitching. Pitching. The Tampa Bay organization just keeps churning out mound prospects and the Top 10 list is littered with seven pitchers. The impressive part is that none of the players were taken in the first round; all seven were drafted in the third round or later, save for Lobstein. One other pitcher was signed internationally, while another was acquired in the Scott Kazmir trade with Los Angeles (AL). You can also see signs of excellent scouting when you look at the top prospect, Desmond Jennings, who was acquired out of a small community college in the 10th round.

1. Desmond Jennings, OF, Triple-A
DOB: October 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 10th round – Alabama Community College
MLB ETA: mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

Injuries limited Jennings to just 24 games in high-A ball in ’08 so few knew what exactly to expect from the rusty prospect in ’09. The outfielder did not miss a beat by jumping to double-A and he hit .316/.395/.486 in 383 at-bats. He also saw his strikeout rate drop from 18.8% to 13.6% while his ISO rate rose from .153 to .170. Jennings also stole 37 bases in 42 attempts in double-A. Promoted to triple-A for his final 32 games, the Alabama native hit .325/.419/.491 with an ISO of .167 and 15 steals in 17 attempts. He also posted a BB/K rate of 1.27 and is clearly on the cusp of the Majors. Currently more of a 10-15 homer threat, there is hope that Jennings can develop at least 20 homer power.

2. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Triple-A
DOB: April 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 4th round – Iowa HS
MLB ETA: mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Another impact prospect on the verge of realizing his MLB dream, Hellickson blew through both double-A and triple-A in ’09. Only 22, the right-hander allowed just 41 hits in 56.2 innings of work in double-A, while also posting a strikeout rate of 9.85 K/9. He showed solid control with a walk rate of 2.22 BB/9. Of concern, though, is his 35.3% ground-ball rate, which rose by 10% with the move to triple-A. In the senior league, Hellickson allowed just 39 hits in 71.0 innings thanks in part to a crazy-low BABIP of .228. He didn’t walk anyone, either, and posted a base-on-balls rate of 2.35 BB/9. His 10.99 K/9 rate was outstanding. Hellickson could really stand to improve his ground-ball rate further but a strong outfield defense with the likes of B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford, and Desmond Jennings will certainly help the fly-ball pitcher.

3. Tim Beckham, SS, Low-A
DOB: January 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – Georgia HS
MLB ETA: mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

One full season into his career, it’s still far too early to get worried about this former first-overall pick’s offensive showing. The soon-to-be 20-year-old infielder hit a respectable .275/.328/.389 in 491 at-bats in low-A ball. Beckham’s power is obviously MIA at this point, and his ISO rate was just .114 – a slight improvement over his debut number in ’08 of .102. His 33 doubles hint at future power potential. His base running also needs to improve after he was caught 10 times in 23 attempts. Beckham’ strikeout rate (23.5%) is too high for someone with little power and his allergy to walks (6.5%) hurts his potential as a top-of-the-order hitter. There is a lot of added pressure on first-overall draft picks so the wOBA of .327 is clearly a disappointment for many, but ’09 was a solid foundation season. The organization will look for more in 2010.

4. Wade Davis, RHP, Majors
DOB: September 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2004 3rd round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up, cutter

It seemed like a long time in coming, but Davis finally made his much-anticipated MLB debut. Both Davis and Jacob McGee (slowed by Tommy John surgery) have been on the Rays’ Top 10 lists since ’05. Davis’ stuff has leveled off a little bit since his early days in the system, but he had a solid season in triple-A in ’09 where he allowed 139 hits in 158.2 innings of work. Davis’ strikeout rate was down a bit at 7.94 K/9 but his walk rate was around career-levels at 3.40 BB/9. He was aided somewhat by a BABIP of .289. On the MLB landscape, Davis made six starts and allowed 33 hits in 36.1 innings. He posted a strikeout rate of 8.92 K/9 and showed respectable control with a walk rate of 3.22 BB/9. According to Pitch Type Values, Davis had a lot of success with his 92 mph fastball, as well as his curveball.

5. Matt Moore, LHP, Low-A
DOB: June 1989 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 8th round – New Mexico HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

An eighth-round steal, Moore has posted crazy (and oddly consistent) strikeout numbers in three minor league seasons of 12.84, 12.75, and 12.88 K/9. His walk rate, though, rose from 3.15 in ’08 in short-season ball to 5.12 BB/9 in ’09 at low-A ball. Moore made up for the walks by not allowing many hits: just 86 in 123.0 innings of work. The southpaw did not allow a homer to a left-handed batter and posted a 71.2% ground-ball rate in limited innings. His overall ground-ball rate was 45.8%. Moore has a huge upside, but the loss of control in ’09 is worrisome.

6. Nick Barnese, RHP, Low-A
DOB: January 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 3rd round – California HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

A personal favorite of mine, Barnese got a late jump on the season thanks to an injury. Once he got going, though, the right-hander pitched well in low-A ball. The 21-year-old hurler posted a 3.43 FIP and allowed 56 hits in 74.2 innings. His ground-ball rate was just shy of 52%. He showed OK control, especially considering is loss development time, with a walk rate of 3.01 BB/9. On the negative side, he was aided by a .263 BABIP and his strikeout rate hit a career low of 7.47, down from 11.45 K/9 in ’08. His stuff isn’t electric, but Barnese has a good chance of developing into a middle-of-the-rotation starter, if he can stay healthy.

7. Reid Brignac, SS, Majors
DOB: January 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2004 2nd round – Louisiana HS
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

Brignac’s prospect status has stagnated a bit in the past two seasons in triple-A as he’s posted wOBAs of .311 and .329. This past year, he hit .282/.327/.417 in 415 at-bats. His ascent to the Majors was also slowed by the emergence of Jason Bartlett, who currently mans the shortstop position for the big league club and is the superior fielder and hitter. Brignac will have to wait for A) a trade, B) a position switch (to second?), or C) Bartlett to get injured/become ineffective/too expensive. In truth, Brignac does not offer much power (.135 ISO) or speed (five steals in 10 tries), and he has hit more than .260 just once in the past three seasons. Now 24, it’s up to him to force the organization’s hand with some above-average play.

8. Alexander Colome, RHP, Short Season
DOB: December 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 90-95 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

A casual observer may have taken one look at Colome’s debut numbers in ’08 that featured a 6.80 ERA… and looked the other way. However, his FIP was just 4.49 and he was hurt by a BABIP of .364 (not to mention his 5.05 BB/9 rate). After taking a year to acclimatize himself to North America, Colome also received some better luck in ’09 with a BABIP of .277. His control also improved and his walk rate improved to 3.79 BB/9. The strikeout rate jumped from an already-good 10.10 to 11.13 K/9. Colome allowed just 46 hits in 76.0 innings and he did not have a ball leave the yard. His 50.3% ground-ball rate was encouraging, as was the miniscule 8.7% line-drive rate.

9. Kyle Lobstein, LHP, Short Season
DOB: August 1989 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 2nd round – Arizona HS
MLB ETA: Late-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

An ’08 second-round pick, Lobstein did not make his mound debut until ’09 in short-season ball and he established himself amongst the top arms in the system. He posted a 2.95 FIP, while allowing 55 hits in 73.1 innings of work. He gave up just four homers (0.49 HR/9) and his walk rate was solid at 2.82 BB/9. Lobstein also missed a fair number of bats, with a strikeout rate of 9.08 K/9. He’ll likely jump to low-A ball in 2010, where he should spend the full season. Lobstein is not a flame-thrower, but he has middle-of-the-rotation potential thanks, in part, to a solid ground-ball rate (51.2%) and good numbers against right-hander (9.73 K/9, .204 batting-average-allowed).

10. Alexander Torres, LHP, Double-A
DOB: December 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-91 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Obtained in the surprising Scott Kazmir trade, Torres narrowly edges first baseman Matt Sweeney in terms of present prospect value amongst those obtained from Los Angeles in the swap. Torres made three minor-league stops in ’09, including seven double-A starts (two with Tampa Bay). He showed some rough edges, though, with a walk rate above 5.00 BB/9. Torres misses a good number of bats, though, with an overall strikeout rate of 8.49 K/9 and his ground-ball rate was excellent at 57.9%. He’s also equally effective against both left-handed (.218 average) and right-handed (.221) batters. Despite his below-average stature (5’10, 160 lbs), Torres showed his durability in ’09 with 155.0 regular-season innings pitched.

Up Next: The Florida Marlins

General Manager: Andrew Friedman
Farm Director: Mitch Lukevics
Scouting Director: R.J. Harrison

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-draft signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st Round: LeVon Washington, 2B/OF, Florida HS (Did not sign)
2. Kenny Diekroeger, SS, California HS (Did not sign)
3. Todd Glaesmann, OF, Texas HS
4x – Luke Bailey, C, Georgia HS
5x – Jeff Malm, 1B, Las Vegas HS
9x – Kevin James, LHP, Wisconsin HS

There were a few teams that had ugly drafts and the Rays organization was certainly one of them – when you consider that it did not sign the first two picks: Washington and Diekroeger, who was rumored to be a tough sign to begin with. However, the club did grab some interesting players with above-slot deals in Bailey and Malm. Bailey was a possible first-round pick before undergoing Tommy John surgery on his throwing arm. He’s considered a solid offensive and defensive catcher. He should surface in rookie ball at some point during the second half of the year.

Malm appeared in just six games after signing and he should be back in short-season ball in 2010, although a strong spring could vault him to low-A ball. Glaesmann, an athletic outfielder, appeared in just five games. Prep lefty James pitched just one inning after signing. He’ll likely be a long-term project, as he needs to work on his secondary offerings.

2008 1st Round: Tim Beckham, SS, Georgia HS
2. Kyle Lobstein, LHP, Arizona HS
3. Jake Jefferies, C, UC Davis

Beckham has not been as explosive as the organization (and fans) likely had hoped, given his first overall slot. However, he’s still plugging along and remains on the club’s Top 10 list… so you’ll read more about him in the very near future. Lobstein did not pitch after signing in ’08, but he was excellent in his debut in ’09 and he joins Beckham on the Top 10 list.

Jefferies had a solid, albeit unspectacular, ’09 season by hitting .261/.326/.359 in 440 at-bats. The catcher rarely strikes out (8.0%) but he also does not walk much (7.8%). With a catcher-like BABIP of .270, he’s not going to score many runs. His ISO of .098 also shows his lack of power. Jefferies’ value is pretty much tied into his work behind the dish, which included a 26% success rate in throwing out runners in ’09. He looks like a future backup.

2007 1st Round: David Price, LHP, Vanderbilt
2. Will Kline, RHP, Mississippi
3. Nick Barnese, RHP, California HS
x- D.J. Jones, OF, Alabama HS

Price had a bit of an up-and-down season, but he’s already a full-time Major League pitcher who has a chance to be a No. 1 guy down the road, so the organization is no doubt pleased with this pick. Kline has been a disappointment as injuries have decimated his career; he hasn’t pitched a pro game since ’07. Barnese, on the other hand, has risen to become one of the club’s ten best prospects. The club spent more than $300,000 on the projectable Jones, but he has yet to hit above .227 in his career and he regressed significantly in ’09 as his OPS dropped from .613 to .549.

Matt Moore, another Top 10 prospect, was a steal of an eighth-round pick.

2006 1st Round: Evan Longoria, 3B, Long Beach
2. Josh Butler, RHP, San Diego
3. Nick Fuller, RHP, Georgia HS (Did not sign)
5x – Shawn O’Malley, SS, Washington HS

I think it’s safe to say Longoria was a nice pick. Butler’s value in the organization dropped quickly but he was traded to Milwaukee and he’s again having success. O’Malley is speedster (40 steals in 54 attempts in ’09) who hit a career high .268 in high-A this past season. With an .044 ISO to boot, you can pretty much read between the lines.

The club found its top prospect in the 10th round when it nabbed little-known Desmond Jennings out of an Alabama community college. Heath Rollins was nabbed in the 11th round and he should at least make the Majors as a back-of-the-rotation starter or middle reliever.

Up Next: The Tampa Bay Rays Top 10 Prospects

General Manager: Frank Wren
Farm Director: Kurt Kemp
Scouting Director: Tony DeMacio

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

The Braves organization is not churning out the pitching prospects like it once did, but there are some interesting power arms in the system. The club has had some problems with injuries amongst its young pitchers, especially recent draft picks, which is a little worrisome. The two bats at the top of the Top 10 list have a chance to be impact bats – especially Heyward. He could be an absolute monster at the plate. Many of the prospects on the Top 10 list are still a few years away.

1. Jason Heyward, OF, Triple-A
DOB: August 1989 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 1st round – Georgia HS
MLB ETA: Early-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

I loved Heyward on draft day in ’07 and I like him even more now. Despite being drafted out of high school, he’s flown through the system and reached triple-A in ’09 at the age of 20. He began the year in high-A where he hit .296/.369/.519 in 189 at-bats. Heyward then moved up to double-A and produced a line of .352/.446/.611 in 162 at-bats. His season ended with three games in triple-A. The outfielder showed outstanding power with an ISO rate of .222 in high-A and .259 in double-A. He also displayed the potential to provide five to 10 steals and Heyward had a double-digit walk rate, which topped out at 14.7% in double-A. His BB/K rate of 1.47 at that same level was outstanding. There are few holes in his game. Heyward’s durability is currently surrounded by question marks after be was dogged by minor injuries during the season and in the Arizona Fall League.

2. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Double-A
DOB: September 1989 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2007 2nd round – California HS
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Freeman’s season began very well in high-A when he .302/.394/.447 in 255 at-bats. The first baseman found the going much tougher in double-A and he hit just .248/.308/.342 in 149 at-bats. His power also dropped with his ISO rate going from .145 to .094. Even at its peak last season, Freeman’s power output was below-average for an impact first baseman, but he projects as a 20-homer guy — not a true slugger. One reason for his poor numbers in double-A was the drop in BABIP, from .341 to .273; he was also playing with a hand injury. On the positive side, his strikeout rate actually dropped from 16.1 to 12.8%, so he wasn’t completely over-matched. He’ll head back to double-A in 2010.

3. Julio Teheran, RHP, Low-A
DOB: January 1991 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Colombia)
MLB ETA: Early-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

There is no question that Teheran has the stuff to be a dominating starter in the Majors, but his durability is in question, as he’s been slowed by shoulder soreness. He made just 14 starts in ’09 and he split the year between rookie ball and low-A ball. At the senior level, Teheran posted a 3.68 FIP and allowed 42 hits in 37.2 innings. He showed good control with a walk rate of 2.63 BB/9 but his strikeout rate was just 6.69 K/9. The right-hander has a good change-up but his breaking ball still needs work, which is one of the reasons for the low strikeout rate. Teheran is loaded with potential but he’s just 18 years old and will likely develop slowly, especially with the organization being cautious with his health.

4. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Short-Season
DOB: November 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-95 mph, plus curveball, change-up

Vizcaino had a very impressive season as a teenager in short-season ball. He missed a lot of bats with a strikeout rate of 11.06 K/9 and he kept the walks in check at 3.19 BB/9. In 42.1 innings, Vizcaino allowed just 34 hits and two homers (0.43 HR/9). His ground-ball rate improved 10% over his debut season in ’08 to 48%, which is a positive trend that will hopefully continue in 2010. If he reaches his potential, Vizcaino has the stuff to be a front-line starter… but he’s also a ways away from the Majors. He was the key player acquired recently in the Javier Vazquez deal with the Yankees.

5. Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Triple-A
DOB: May 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Wallace State CC
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 91-95 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Kimbrel has flown through the system since signing in ’08. The right-handed reliever has posted outstanding strikeout rates throughout the minors, including 17.10 K/9 in 20.0 low-A innings and 15.38 K/9 in 26.1 high-A innings, both in 2009. His control, though, has been more spotty. Kimbrel posted a walk rate of 2.70 BB/9 in low-A but it rose to 9.57 BB/9 in high-A. He also pitched 11.2 innings in double-A and walked seven batters with 17 Ks. Overall on the year, he allowed 30 hits, 45 walks and struck out 103 batters in 60.0 innings. Kimbrel needs to sharpen his control before reaching the Majors, but he has closer potential with a blazing fastball and good slider.

6. Randall Delgado, RHP, Low-A
DOB: February 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Panama)
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 91-95 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

Another good arm, Delgado proved his durability in ’09 by making 25 starts in low-A ball. He allowed 123 hits in 124.0 innings and posted a FIP of 3.20. He also showed a consistent ability to miss bats with his good fastball and he posted a strikeout rate of 10.23 K/9. His control was OK, especially given his experience level, and he had a walk rate of 3.56 BB/9. Delgado also did a nice job of keeping the ball in the park (0.65 HR/9). He was particularly effective against left-handed hitters, who managed to produce an average of just .225 against him. He also posted a strikeout rate of 10.92 K/9 against them, compared to 8.87 K/9 against right-handed batters.

7. Ezekiel Spruill, RHP, Low-A
DOB: September 1989 Bats: B Throws: R
Signed: 2008 2nd round – Georgia HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Spruill had a nice first season out of rookie ball with a 3.37 FIP in low-A. He was a little too hittable, though, and he allowed 120 hits in 116.0 innings. Spruill is always around the strike zone, though, and the hitters in the low minors tend to be free swingers. He showed outstanding control with a walk rate of 1.86 BB/9. The right-hander backed that up with a strikeout rate of 7.37 K/9. He also posted an outstanding ground-ball rate just shy of 57% on the year. Spruill’s stuff is more solid than electric and he projects to be a No. 3 starter in the Majors.

8. Christian Bethancourt, C, Rookie
DOB: September 1991 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 non-drafted international free agent (Panama)
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Bethancourt had a solid debut season in the low minors. In rookie ball, he hit .275/.340/.443 in 166 at-bats. The right-handed hitter did struggle against left-handed pitchers and he posted an OPS of just .577. For a teenager, Bethancourt showed a good eye at the plate and intriguing raw power. He’s known as a good leader behind the plate and he also has promising arm strength, as he threw out 30% of base stealers in ’09. He’ll likely move up to low-A in 2010, where he’ll be one of the youngest players in the league.

9. Cody Johnson, OF, High-A
DOB: August 1988 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2006 1st round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

People seem to either love or hate Johnson as a prospect. Just 21, he slugged 32 homers last year, and has gone deep 58 times over the last two seasons. However, his strikeout rate actually rose from his 37.8% mark in ’08 to 40.6% in ’09 as he moved up from low-A to high-A. On the plus side, his walk rate also rose, from 7.9% to 13.2%. Johnson will need to tone down his swing if he’s going to succeed even in double-A, but he’d still have above-average power if he swung with one hand tied behind his back. With a .242 batting average in high-A, he’ll likely struggle to hit even .220 in 2010 if he doesn’t make some adjustments. At this point, he’s a long shot to be an impact player in the Majors but he’s fun to follow.

10. Adam Milligan, OF, High-A
DOB: March 1988 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 6th round – Walters State CC
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Milligan did not get into game action after signing in ’08 so ’09 represented his debut season. The outfielder had an outstanding season while spending the majority of the season in low-A where he hit .345/.393/.589 in 197 at-bats. He also posted an ISO of .244 but he was raw on the base paths and got caught five times in nine attempts. The left-handed hitter did OK against southpaws, but he still posted much better numbers against right-handers (.870 vs 1.013 OPS on the year). His walk rate was low at 5.7% but his strikeout rate was OK at 21.8% given his power output. Milligan received a taste of High-A ball and he should return there in 2010. With just 256 pro at-bats, we still don’t no exactly what this intriguing prospect has to offer.

Up Next: Tampa Bay Rays

General Manager: Frank Wren
Farm Director: Kurt Kemp
Scouting Director: Tony DeMacio

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-draft signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st Round: Mike Minor, LHP, Vanderbilt U
2. None
3. David Hale, RHP, Princeton

Perhaps looking for a “safe pick” since the organization lacked a second-round selection, the team nabbed Minor with the seventh-overall selection. The organization passed on the likes of Jacob Turner and Tyler Matzek, both of whom are talented, hard-throwing prep pitchers. Minor’s fastball is fringe-average at 87-89 mph and his best pitch is a plus change-up. His secondary pitches are still developing, but he’s a durable, left-handed pitcher with solid control and a proven track record. In his debut in low-A ball, Minor did not walk a batter in 14 innings and he allowed just 10 hits. He projects to be a solid No. 3 starter if everything clicks.

Hale is basically the opposite of Minor. He’s a hard-thrower with less polish – and he’s right-handed. He did well in his debut but he was a college pitcher performing in rookie ball. Hale allowed just seven hits and five walks in 16.0 innings.Because he has yet to fully develop his secondary pitches, Hale projects to be a late-game reliever.

Fourth-rounder Mycal Jones had a nice debut, albeit in rookie ball. The 22-year-old infielder hit .258/.337/.430 in 244 at-bats, while also showing solid gap power (18 doubles, .172 ISO) and good speed with 19 steals in 23 attempts.

2008 1st Round: None
1S. Brett DeVall, LHP, Florida HS
2. Tyler Stovall, LHP, Alabama HS
2. Zeke Spruill, RHP, Georgia HS
3. Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Alabama CC
6x – Adam Milligan, OF, Tennessee CC
10x – J.J. Hoover, RHP, Alabama CC

The club recovered nicely from the lack of a first-round pick by loading up on prep pitchers with its three selections before the third round. Both DeVall (hindered by injury problems) and Spruill have developed nicely so far. Spruill appears on the club’s Top 10 list, along with Kimbrel and Milligan. Stovall has shown flashes of potential – 36 hits allowed in 52.0 rookie innings in ’09 – but control issues are a huge red flag for him. He posted a walk rate of 9.69 BB/9 this past season. The left-hander is going to have make some big adjustments if he’s going to get out of A-ball.

Hoover has flashed excellent control in pro ball (1.67 BB/9) and he had a nice ’09 season in low-A ball. In 134.1 innings, Hoover allowed 135 hits and posted a strikeout rate of 9.92 K/9. He has a four-pitch mix with a fastball in the low-90s so keep an eye on him in 2010.

2007 1st Round: Jason Heyward, OF, Georgia HS
1S. Jon Gilmore, 3B, Iowa HS
2. Joshua Fields, RHP, Georgia (Did not sign)
2. Freddie Freeman, 1B, California HS
3. Brandon Hicks, SS, Texas A&M
x- Benino Pruneda, RHP, Texas JC

The best Braves pick in quite a few years, Heyward is easily the club’s No. 1 prospect and he could play regularly in the Majors in 2010 at the age of 20. Freeman is the second best bat in the system, so he joins Heyward on the Top 10 list.

Gilmore was used in the Javier Vazquez trade with the Chicago White Sox and he has been slow to develop. He’s maintained a respectable batting average throughout his career (with a small-sample-size hiccup in ’08) but he has not shown much power (.087 ISO in ’09) for a third baseman. His walk rate was also rather low at 6.3%.

Hicks received some attention after slugging 20 homers in ’08 but he has struggled to hit above .240 in his minor league career. The strikeout rate of 28.2% in double-A in ’09 is also a big problem. Pruneda is an under-sized right-handed reliever who posted a big strikeout rate (11.29 K/9) and a big walk rate (5.65 BB/9) in high-A. He’s also maintained a solid ground-ball rate in his career.

2006 1st Round: Cody Johnson, OF/1B, Florida HS
1S. Cory Rasmus, RHP, Alabama HS
1S. Steve Evarts, LHP, Florida HS
2. Jeff Locke, LHP, New Hampshire HS
2. Dustin Evans, RHP, Georgia Southern
2. Chase Fontaine, SS, Florida CC
3. Chad Rodgers, LHP, Ohio HS
9x – Tim Gustafson, RHP, Georgia Tech
19x – Duente Heath, RHP, Tennessee
22x – Cole Rohrbough, LHP, Nevada JC

A controversial selection at the time, the jury is still out on Johnson. He has massive power but you can drive a bus through the holes in his swing. The club appeared to have scored on both Rasmus and Evarts but their careers have been derailed by injuries. Evans missed all of ’09 due to injury, and Rodgers appeared in just seven games. The injury bug has certainly taken a huge bite out of this draft.

Locke was sent to Pittsburgh in the trade for outfielder Nate McLouth. Fontaine was flipped to Tampa Bay in ’08. Heath reached triple-A this past season but he’s struggled with control issues throughout his rise up the minor-league chain. Rohrbough looked like a huge steal after his ’08 season, but he took a step back in ’09 while posting a 5.77 ERA (4.34 FIP) and allowing 129 hits in 117.0 innings in high-A. His command and control both slipped, which led to a huge drop in strikeout rate to 7.69 K/9. He’s still just 22 so he could easily rebound.

Up Next: The Atlanta Braves Top 10 Prospects

General Manager: Andy MacPhail
Farm Director: David Stockstill
Scouting Director: Joe Jordan

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

Even with the graduation of quite a few pitchers in ’09, the organization is top heavy in pitching prospects. There are some hitting prospects, but their ceilings are more modest for the most part. With that said, Josh Bell could displace veteran Garrett Atkins at the hot corner before the 2010 season is up.

1. Brian Matusz, LHP, Majors
DOB: February 1987 Bats: Left Throws: Left
Signed: 2008 1st round – University of San Diego
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 88-94 mph fastball, plus curveball, slider, change-up

Matusz reached the Majors in his first full pro season and showed that he belonged, thanks in part due to a 4.08 FIP and a walk rate of just 2.82 BB/9. He also struck out his fair share of batters with a rate of 7.66 K/9. Matusz struggled a bit with his command – especially with the fastball – and he allowed too many hits (52 in 44.2 innings), as well as a high home-run rate at 1.21 HR/9. The lefty needs to improve his ground-ball rate of 31.2% if he’s going to keep the ball in the yard. Batters made below-average contact against Matusz in ’09, which bodes well for his future. Once he improves the command of his pitches, he could develop into a No. 1 or 2 starter. He joins Chris Tillman at the top of a young, exciting starting rotation.

2. Josh Bell, 3B, Double-A
DOB: November 1986 Bats: Both Throws: Right
Signed: 2005 4th round – Florida HS (Los Angeles NL)
MLB ETA: mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

With the loss of incumbent third baseman Melvin Mora, Bell has an outside chance of breaking camp with the club in 2010. That likelihood diminished, though, with the club’s acquisition of long-time Rockie Garrett Atkins, who is expected to keep the hot corner warm until Bell is ready. After a solid showing in double-A this past season, it should not be long for the former Dodgers prospect. Bell hit .296/.386/.497 in 334 at-bats after coming over from LA. He also posted a solid .201 ISO (.281 in the LAD system), so he has the power that most teams covet at the position. With modest speed, Bell has produced rather high BABIPs in the minors, so he may not be a .280-.300 hitter in the Majors like he was in the minors. Despite that fact, Bell has an intriguing mix of power and patience (13.0% walk rate).

3. Brandon Erbe, RHP, Double-A
DOB: December 1987 Bats: Right Throws: Right
Signed: 2005 3rd round – Maryland HS
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-94 mph fastball, slider, change-up

When he was healthy in ’09, Erbe produced some interesting numbers. In 73.0 double-A innings, he was almost un-hittable by allowing just 44 hits. Erbe was particularly tough against right-handed hitters, who managed a batting average of just .150. However, he did struggle with his control and posted a walk rate of 4.32 BB/9. His strikeout rate was OK, but not great, at 7.64 K/9. The young right-hander is still learning how to pitch and develop his secondary pitches, so he has yet to take full advantage of his stuff, which is electric at times. Some doubt whether or not Erbe will be able to refine his secondary pitches enough to remain in the starting rotation. If he does head to the bullpen, he could develop into a solid late-game option.

4. Jake Arrieta, RHP, Double-A
DOB: March 1986 Bats: Right Throws: Right
Signed: 2007 5th round – Texas Christian University
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 87-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Arrieta split the ’09 season between double-A and triple-A and posted solid numbers overall. The right-hander posted a 3.08 FIP and strikeout rate of 10.68 K/9 in 11 starts in the junior league before moving up to triple-A, where he posted a 4.15 FIP and strikeout rate of 7.66 K/9. His control actually improved with the promotion and dropped from 3.51 to 3.24 BB/9. Arrieta also did a nice job of keeping the ball in the park, although it rose a bit upon his promotion (from 0.61 to 0.88 HR/9). The right-hander projects as a solid No. 3 starter.

5. Zach Britton, LHP, High-A
DOB: December 1987 Bats: Left Throws: Left
Signed: 2006 3rd round – Texas HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, slider, curveball, change-up

This left-hander is quietly developing into one of the best young pitchers in the minor leagues. Britton posted a solid 3.26 FIP in high-A in ’09 while also allowing just 123 hits in 140.0 innings. He also posted a solid strikeout rate of 8.42 K/9 and an OK walk rate of 3.54 BB/9. He allowed just four homers all season and posted a crazy ground-ball rate of 65%. Britton did a nice job of battling both right-handed (.229 average allowed) and left-hander (.232) batters, although he showed a better strikeout rate (10.98 K/9) against the latter. He could develop into a No. 2 starter if he can keep the ground balls coming and retain the fastball velocity.

6. Brandon Snyder, 1B, Triple-A
DOB: November 1986 Bats: Right Throws: Right
Signed: 2005 1st round – Virginia HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

Losing their catching eligibility can be the kiss of death for a lot of prospects (Just ask Neil Walker), but Snyder has shown that he just might survive the move. The right-handed hitter has moved to first base, where his average projects to be below-average for the position, but he has shown solid gap power and the ability to hit for a solid average. He could develop into a solid Lyle Overbay-type of first baseman. Snyder got off to a great start in double-A in ’09 and hit .343/.421/.597 with an ISO of .254 in 201 at-bats. That momentum cooled after a promotion to triple-A and he hit just .248/.316/.355 with an ISO of .107 in 262 at-bats. His true value likely lies somewhere in the middle. He does a nice job of getting on base (almost 10% in ’09), as well, but it would be nice to see him trim the strikeout rate (24.4% in triple-A).

7. Caleb Joseph, C, High-A
DOB: June 1986 Bats: Right Throws: Right
Signed: 2008 7th round – Lipscomb University
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Joseph has an up-hill climb to acquiring the starting catcher gig in Baltimore thanks to the presence of Matt Wieters, but he could develop into an above-average backup – if he’s not used as trade bait. The backstop had a solid first full year in the minors and hit .284/.337/.450 in 380 at-bats. His ISO of .166 suggests that there could be some more power to come as the 6’3” hitter adds more muscle to his 180 lbs frame. Joseph’s strikeout rate was impressive at 16.8%, but he could stand to show some more patience after posting a walk rate of just 6.4%. Defensively, he has some work to do in throwing out runners after his caught-stealing rate dropped from 43% in his debut to just 27% in ’09.

8. Kam Mickolio, RHP, Majors
DOB: May 1984 Bats: Right Throws: Right
Signed: 2006 18th round – Utah Valley State College (Seattle)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 89-95 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Mickolio has come a long way in a short period of time, but the 6’9” monster is still far from a finished product. His control is mainly to blame and he posted a walk rate of 4.61 BB/9 in the Majors in ’09. He also relies heavily on one pitch (his fastball at 80.3% of the time) but his slider also has a lot of promise. Mickolio’s ground-ball rate has been all over the map. It dropped heavily in the minors from ’08 to ’09 when it went from an outstanding 58.6% to a scary 28.6%. If everything clicks – and he can get his ground ball numbers back to a reasonable rate – then Mickolio could develop into the O’s closer.

9. Troy Patton, LHP, Triple-A
DOB: September 1985 Bats: Both Throws: Left
Signed: 2004 9th round – Texas HS (Houston)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 87-91 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Patton has had some tough times and he no longer projects to be a top-of-the-rotation star like in his early Astros days. The southpaw has lost velocity thanks to injuries and he now projects as a solid back-of-the-rotation starter, if he can remain healthy. Now 24, Patton made 11 solid starts in double-A this past season and posted a 3.53 FIP. He moved up to triple-A, though, and got hit around and posted a 6.80 FIP. He allowed 62 hits in 44.2 innings and tossed up a home-run rate of 2.42 HR/9. If he cannot recover, Patton could be headed to the bullpen as a middle reliever, but he shouldn’t be written off quite yet.

10. Brandon Waring, 3B, Double-A
DOB: January 1986 Bats: Right Throws: Right
Signed: 2007 7th round – Wofford College (Cincinnati)
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Waring is a slugger. He’s hit 20 or more home runs in each of his three pro seasons. He’s not higher on this list because of a lot of people doubt his ability to hit for average at the MLB level. The right-handed hitter had a solid year in ’09 and batted .273/.354/.520 in 473 high-A at-bats. The 23-year-old third baseman posted an ISO rate of .247 and slugged 26 homers, as well as 35 doubles. His walk rate was OK at 9.7% but his strikeout rate was high – but not unexpected for a slugger – at 25.6%. Waring’s defense at third base is shaky so he split the ’09 season between the hot corner and first base. At either position, the right-handed hitter will have to balance other prospects (Bell and Snyder) for playing time.

Up Next: The Atlanta Braves

General Manager: Andy MacPhail
Farm Director: David Stockstill
Scouting Director: Joe Jordan

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-draft signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st Round: Matt Hobgood, RHP, California HS [90-94 FB, CB, SL, CH]
2. Mychal Givens, SS, Florida HS
3. Tyler Townsend, 1B, Florida International
5x – Ashur Tolliver, LHP, Oklahoma City [88-93 FB, CH, SL]
7x – Aaron Wirsch, LHP, California HS [85-88 FB, CB, CH]
9x – Ryan Berry, RHP, Rice [87-92 FB, CB+ SL, CH]
11x – Michael Ohlman, C, Florida HS
18x – Jarret Martin, LHP, California JC
22x – Cameron Coffey, LHP, Texas HS [85-91 FB, CB, CH]
30x – Brenden Webb, OF, California JC

The club took an interesting strategy in the ’09 draft. It didn’t skimp on the money it dished out (signing 10 players to deals worth $200,00 or more) but the Orioles organization did pass up some higher-ranked, and more expensive, players to take Hobgood with the fifth overall choice. The right-hander signed quickly and made eight pro starts in ’09 at rookie ball. He allowed 32 hits in 26.2 innings, while showing good control (2.70 BB/9). Hobgood did not allow a home run and showed a heavy ball, as witnessed by his ground-ball rate, which was just shy of 53%.

The club almost gave up on coming to terms with Givens, but the two sides agreed to a deal before the deadline. Givens, though, did not sign in time to make his pro debut in ’09. Berry, Martin, and Coffey also did not come to terms in time to make their debuts.

College-signee Townsend had a rough debut by posting a strikeout rate of 32.8 K% in 119 at-bats, and he hit just .143/.226/.303. Wirsch posted a 2.84 FIP in 16.2 rookie ball innings. He allowed just 12 hits, but he walked 10 (5.40 BB/9). Tolliver made just three relief appearances, struck out seven batters in 8.0 innings and did not allow a run. Ohlman had just 12 plate appearances after signing and managed one hit – a double. Webb appeared in 13 rookie ball games and hit .186/.352/.233 with two steals.

2008 1st Round: Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego
2. Xavier Avery, OF, Georgia HS
3. L.J. Hoes, 2B, Washington HS
8x – Bobby Bundy, RHP, Oklahoma HS
14x – Jesse Beal, RHP, Virginia HS

Matusz is already making an impact at the MLB level for the club. The lefty made eight starts for the Orioles and allowed 52 hits in 44.2 innings of work. He showed solid control with a walk rate of 2.82 BB/9 but he struggled with the gopher ball to the tune of a home-run rate of 1.21 HR/9. Matusz’s curveball was his best pitch in his debut, but his fastball posted a negative pitch value.

Avery had a promising first full season by hitting .262/.306/.340 but the 23.5% strikeout rate is worrisome considering his lack of power (.078 ISO). He doesn’t do himself any favors in the on-base department, either, with a walk rate of 5.4%. Hoes had a similar season in ’09 in low-A. He hit .260/.299/.318 with a low ISO rate of .058 and a walk rate of just 5.1%. He kept his strikeouts down a little bit more (18.6%) than Avery.

The organization has been patient with Bundy, who has appeared in just 14 games (12 starts) over the past two seasons in rookie ball. In ’09, he allowed 47 hits in 54.2 innings while posting a 4.55 FIP. Beal posted a 2.98 FIP in 13 rookie ball starts in ’09 and showed impeccable control with a walk rate of 0.97 BB/9. However, his strikeout rate was just 4.99 K/9 and he was aided by a low BABIP of .270.

2007 1st Round: Matt Wieters, C, Georgia Tech
2. None
3. None
x- Tim Bascom, RHP, IND
x- Jake Arrieta, RHP, Texas Christian

The club did not have its second or third round picks, but it had its best draft in a number of years, thanks solely to the addition of Wieters, who made his MLB debut in ’09. The former Georgia Tech star hit a modest .288/.340/.412 in 354 at-bats, along with an ISO of .124, but he showed steady improvement during the season. A good fastball hitter, Wieters needs to improve against breaking balls and off-speed pitches. The organization owes the Pittsburgh Pirates a huge debt of gratitude for passing on the catcher in an effort to save some cash with the selection of left-hander Daniel Moskos.

Bascom and Arrieta were also nice signings. The latter pitcher appears on the club’s Top 10 list, due up tomorrow. Bascom split ’09 between high-A and double-A where he showed good control (3.20 BB/9 in double-A) but a low strikeout rate (6.50 K/9). He’ll likely top out as a back-of-the-rotation starter or middle reliever.

2006 1st Round: Billy Rowell, 3B, New Jersey HS
1S. Pedro Beato, RHP, Florida JC
2. Ryan Adams, SS, Louisiana HS
3. Zach Britton, LHP, Texas HS

The first prep bat taken in the draft, ahead of Toronto’s Travis Snider, Rowell has been a huge disappointment and hit just .225/.284/.336 in 423 high-A at-bats. Beato has also fallen off the prospect cliff, although he did reach double-A in ’09. His strikeout rate fell below 6.00 K/9, as his fastball has lost some of its zip. The 1.69 HR/9 rate in double-A suggests he needs to get his pitches down in the zone. Adams had injury problems in ’09 at high-A, but if he can get his strikeouts under control (>24% in his career), then he should have a career as a MLB utility player.

Britton was the cream of the crop in this draft and you’ll read more about him tomorrow. Jason Berken was a serviceable MLB pitcher in ’09 for the Orioles and he made 24 starts, but his 6.54 ERA (5.31 FIP) was ugly.

Up Next: The Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Prospects

General Manager: Omar Minaya
Scouting Director: Rudy Terrasas

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

The Major League squad may still look a little rough around the edges but the minor league system is starting to round into shape. The first four players on the list all received consideration for the top spot, while the last six could all face big breakout seasons. The ’09 draft did not infuse much talented into the system.

1. Fernando Martinez, OF, Majors
DOB: October 1988 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

Although some have already, it is far too early to give up on Martinez. Just 21 years old, the Dominican outfielder just needs to have a healthy season. When he did get on the field in ’09, he hit .290/.337/.540 with an ISO of .250 as a 20 year old in triple-A. That is pretty darn impressive. He reached his ’08 total in home runs in about half the at-bats. Martinez actually had a career-high OPS of .877 in ’09. He also kept his strikeout rate below 20% at 18.8%, but it would be nice to see more patience at the plate (5.9% walk rate). At the MLB level, he was over-matched and hit just .176/.242/.275 in 95 at-bats. With a career line against southpaws of .237/.308/.392, he has some work to do against lefties. Despite that, he still has a chance to be a very good player.

2. Ike Davis, 1B, Double-A
DOB: March 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 1st round – Arizona State University
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

A lot of eyebrows were raised (including mine) when Davis hit zero homers in his ’08 debut, which spanned 239 plate appearances. He responded to the criticism in a big way in ’09 and split the year between high-A and double-A while slugging 20 homers and 31 doubles. At the higher level, the first baseman hit .309/.386/.565 in 233 at-bats. He posted a wOBA of .426 and an eye-popping ISO of .256. Davis also showed a willingness to take a walk (11.2 BB%) but his strikeouts started to get out of hand (29.0 K%). He has some work to do against lefties, as seen by his OPS split: .672 against left-handers compared to 1.000 against right-handers. One caution about Davis’ breakout season: He’s a slow-footed player that posted a BABIP of .350 at high-A and .381 in double-A, so we’re likely to see his batting average come down in 2010, especially if the strikeout rate remains high.

3. Jenrry Mejia, RHP, High-A
DOB: October 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 90-96 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Mejia did not turn 20 until after the season ended and he reached double-A as a teenager, which says a lot about his potential. The right-hander began the year in high-A where he posted a FIP of 2.52 and allowed 41 hits in 50.1 innings. He showed good control with a walk rate of 2.86, but that jumped to 4.67 BB/9 in 44.1 double-A innings. His strikeout rate of 7.87 also increased with the promotion, though, to 9.54 K/9. Mejia allowed just two home runs on the season, thanks to a ground-ball rate just shy of 60%, which is outstanding for a flame-thrower. He dominated left-handed batters, as seen by his 10.71 K/9 rate against them, and they hit just .247 against Mejia despite a .354 BABIP. After making just 19 starts in 2009, the talented youngster should open 2010 back in double-A but he could reach the Majors by the end of the season, if needed.

4. Wilmer Flores, SS, Low-A
DOB: August 1991 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Another young player, Flores is just 18 years old and he spent much of the year playing in low-A ball at the age of 17. Overall, he had a ‘foundation year’ with a line of .264/.305/.332 in 488 at-bats. His BABIP was just .305 so we can expect to see a bump in that in the future even though he lacks blazing speed. Flores has raw power, but he posted an ISO of just .068. He needs to show more patience at the plate after posting a walk rate of just 4.3% but he handled the bat well and struck out just 14.8% of the time. Because he profiles as a third baseman down the line, Flores will need to focus on getting stronger and driving the ball more (12.5 LD%) in 2010. He’ll likely be pushed up to high-A this coming year.

5. Jonathon Niese, LHP, Majors
DOB: October 1986 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2005 7th round – Ohio HS
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, cutter, curveball, change-up

Many Mets were cursed by injuries in ’09 and Niese was one of them. A torn hamstring tendon ended his season prematurely in August after he had made just five MLB starts. Despite that fact, Niese left a solid impression after posting a 3.25 FIP in 25.2 innings. His most effective pitch was a newly-honed cutter. Earlier in the season, the southpaw showed his MLB-readiness by posting a 3.38 FIP and 55% ground-ball rate in 94.1 triple-A innings, while also showing good control with a walk rate of 2.48 BB/9. Niese should be healthy and ready to go in spring training so he has a good shot at winning a spot in the MLB starting rotation.

6. Brad Holt, RHP, Double-A
DOB: October 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 supplemental 1st round – University of North Carolina – Wilmington
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, curveball, splitter

Holt had two distinct seasons in ’09. After a dominating pro debut, he opened ’09 by posting a 3.18 FIP in nine high-A starts. He also posted a strikeout rate of 11.22 and showed solid control (2.70 BB/9). Moved up to double-A, though, Holt struggled with a 5.01 FIP (6.21 ERA) and allowed 58 hits in 58.0 innings, despite a BABIP of just .292. His walk rate rose to 3.57 BB/9 and his strikeout rate plummeted to 6.98 K/9. He also struggled with the long ball (1.40 HR/9), and his ground-ball rate on the season was poor at 38%. Holt, 23, will certainly return to double-A in 2010 and look to conquer the league in his second try.

7. Ruben Tejada, SS, Double-A
DOB: September 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Panama)
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

The organization has been extremely aggressive with the slick-fielding shortstop. Despite hitting just .229/.293/.296 in high-A in ’08, the Mets promoted Tejada to double-A in ’09 and he hit .289/.351/.381 in 488 at-bats. His wOBA jumped from .277 in ’08 to .346 in ’09. He also showed improved base running and was successful in 19 of his 22 attempts. Tejada is a free swinger, who posted a walk rate of 7.0% but struck out just 12.1% of the time. He should move up to triple-A in ’09 but he’s currently blocked by incumbent shortstop Jose Reyes. Luckily for Tejada, the veteran player was injury-prone in ’09. The youngster could also slide over to second base.

8. Josh Thole, C, Triple-A
DOB: October 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2005 13th round – Illinois HS
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

This converted catcher has his share of doubters, but he’s done nothing but hit over the past two seasons with a batting average above .300. He even received a 17-game trial in the Majors at the end of the season and hit .321/.356/.396 in 53 at-bats. At double-A, Thole hit .328/.395/.422 in 384 at-bats. The left-handed hitter has walked more than he struck out for three straight seasons and posted a BB/K at double-A of 1.24. He doesn’t need to be platooned, as he actually has a better career batting average against southpaws (.317 vs .284). On the down side, Thole has little power and posted an ISO of .094 in the minors and .075 at the MLB level. Defensively, he’s still learning the position but he improved his throwing in ’09 and nabbed 30% of runner trying to steal.

9. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF, Double-A
DOB: August 1987 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Azusa Pacific University
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Nieuwenhuis’ first full pro season was a success, as he hit .274/.357/.467 in 482 high-A at-bats, while also playing a solid center field. The speedy player also stole 16 bases in 20 attempts and showed surprising power with an ISO of .193. His strikeout rate was high at 28.1% but he offset that a bit with a solid walk rate at 11.1%. He has work to do against southpaws after hitting just .235/.294/.348. The outfielder received an eight-game trial in double-A and he should head back there in 2010.

10. Jeurys Familia, RHP, Low-A
DOB: October 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-94 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Familia is a hard-throwing right-hander who is still quite raw. However, despite being basically a one-pitch pitcher in ’09 (the fastball), he more than held his own in low-A ball at the age of 19. In 134.0 innings, he allowed just 109 hits, thanks in part to a .283 BABIP. He showed good control for his age with a walk rate of 3.09 BB/9 and his strikeout rate was modest at 7.32 K/9. His ground-ball rate was just shy of 50% at 48.8%. Familia did not allow a home run to a left-handed hitter all year (217 batters) but his strikeout rate was just 4.83 K/9 against them. If Familia can continue to grow as a pitcher, he could be a real breakout candidate in 2010.

Up Next: The Baltimore Orioles

With the recent trade between the New York Yankees and the Atlanta Braves, the former organization lost two prospects off of its 40-man roster, which posted to Fangraphs on the same day that the trade was announced. Both left-hander Michael Dunn and right-hander Arodys Vizcaino are now property of the Braves organization. As such, there are now two openings on the club’s Top 10 prospect list. And the new members are (drum roll)…

9. D.J. Mitchell, RHP, High-A
DOB: May 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 10th round – Clemson University
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Mitchell just missed the original Top 10 and the more I look at his numbers, the more I think he should have been there in the first place. The right-hander had a nice ’09 season and he allowed just 124 hits in 140.1 innings, while doing a solid job of keeping the ball in the park with just two homers allowed. A heavy ball allowed him to post an impressive 62% ground-ball rate. He had some splits issues with a .287 average against left-handed hitters, compared to .203 versus righties. Six of Mitchell’s 25 appearances came in low-A ball, while the final 19 came in high-A ball. At the senior level, the 22 year old showed respectable control with a walk rate of 3.31 BB/9 and his strikeout rate was OK, although nothing special, at 7.23 K/9. All in all, a solid showing for his first pro season.

10. Jeremy Bleich, LHP, High-A
DOB: June 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 supplemental first round
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

It was a tale of two seasons for Bleich in ’09. He began the year in high-A and posted some solid numbers, although he did allow his fair share of hits with 79 in as many innings and his strikeout rate was modest at 6.35 K/9. His walk rate was good, though, at 2.50 BB/9 and his FIP was just 3.28 (3.40 ERA). With the move to double-A, Bleich’s game was “Blech.” His FIP rose to 4.40 (6.65 ERA) and he allowed 84 hits in 65.0 innings. The control slipped and his rate rose to 4.71 BB/9, but oddly he missed more bats: 8.31 K/9. Left-handed batters teed off on Bleich more in double-A with the line-drive rate rising from 9.5% to 18.3%. Cleary he has some work to do in double-A, but Bleich still has potential as a back-of-the-rotation starter or middle reliever on a good club like the Yankees.