Author Archive

Aubrey Huff’s Dead Cat Bounce

With the Detroit Tigers in 2009, it looked like Aubrey Huff’s career might be done. The 32-year-old hit .241/.310/.384 in a much more lively run environment, compiling an ugly 77 wRC+ and -1.8 WAR. It certainly wouldn’t have been the first time a slugger in his 30s just lost his ability to hit for power, nor will it be the last (hello, Adam Dunn?). But then, Huff gave the nation a front row seat to what looked like one of the most fantastic recoveries in recent baseball history. His 26 home runs and .290/.385/.506 line resulted in +5.8 WAR and made him one of the most important pieces on a World Series winning Giants team.

Fast forward to the 2011 All-Star Break. Huff is 25% through a new contract rewarding his services during the Giants’ run to the Commissioner’s Trophy. A full $17 million remains on the 34-year-old’s contract, and much to the dismay of Brian Sabean and the Giants, Huff picked up the new season right where he left off in 2009. In this brave new low-scoring run environment we find ourselves in, Huff’s first half slash line of .238/.291/.370 is an equivalent 77 wRC+ to his awful 2009 season; his -0.9 WAR in 375 PA just under his pace of -1.8 WAR in 597 PA with Detroit and Baltimore.

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Brandon Allen Freed

Brandon Allen has been a bit of a cult figure here at FanGraphs. “>As Jonah Keri wrote back in February:

Brandon Allen is entering what should be the prime years of his career. He’s got power, can take a walk, and offers up to six years of team control. He’s the most logical candidate to start at not one, but two different positions in the Diamondbacks lineup. Paraphrasing Ivan Drago, if he fails, he fails. But he has to get a shot.

The Diamondbacks, of course, didn’t listen and chose to go with Juan Miranda and Xavier Nady at first base, a combination that has managed a whopping 0.1 WAR on the season and an OBP just over .300. Especially given the favorable hitters’ environment at Chase Field, such unimpressive totals out of first base are completely unacceptable. After half a season (at least according to the conventions the the All-Star Break marks the halfway point), the Diamondbacks finally listened to Jonah (and Eno Sarris and Eric Seidman and others) and freed Brandon Allen, calling him up as their first move of the second half.

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Cardinals Extend Jaime Garcia

The St. Louis Cardinals moved today to lock up one of their important young pieces, signing pitcher and potential ace-in-the-making Jaime Garcia to a four year contract worth $27.5 million. The deal also includes two club options in 2016 and 2017, the values of which have not been released as of this writing. As Garcia is currently in his second year of service time, the deal guarantees his third pre-arbitration season as well as all three of his arbitration seasons, with the two club options covering his first two years of free agency.

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Jack Moore FanGraphs Chat – 7/12/11


The Unfortunate State of the NL Third Baseman

Scott Rolen is starting at third base for the National League All Stars. This isn’t so much an indictment of the All-Star selection process (although it certainly could be) as it is the sad, sad state of third base in the National League right now.

National League third basemen are currently hitting .254/.315/.373, for a .688 OPS. The only inferior non-pitcher position is the shortstop, at .675. Perhaps part of this is due to injury — Pablo Sandoval, one of the best hitting 3B in the game right now, has only played in 50 games. David Wright has only played 39 games. Ryan Zimmerman has only played 34. The loss of those three star-level hitters has certainly hurt the position, leading to more time for players like Jerry Hairston Jr., Miguel Tejada, and Alex Cora. Also, Brandon Wood plays in the National League now.

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Dontrelle Willis Returns To the Big Leagues

In a somewhat surprising move, the Cincinnati Reds have announced that Dontrelle Willis will be their starting pitcher for Sunday’s game against Milwaukee (as reported by Jerry Crasnick). The Reds have been dealing with pitching depth issues which have only been exacerbated by Wednesday night’s 13 inning game as well as the demotion of Edinson Volquez.

It’s only been a little more than one calendar year since we’ve seen Dontrelle Willis pitch in the Major Leagues — he pitched an inning in relief for the Diamondbacks on July 3rd, 2010 — but it feels like much longer. Willis hasn’t looked like a productive Major League pitcher since 2007, his last year with the Marlins, and even at that point we could sense the beginning of the end. After four straight seasons of 2.9 WAR or better, including a stellar 2005 season in which Willis threw 236 innings with a 2.63 ERA and a 2.99 FIP, Willis only managed a 5.17 ERA and a 5.13 FIP in 2007, and it was all downhill from there.

After his inclusion in the Miguel Cabera trade, Willis’s career collapsed. Willis has started 27 games in the major leagues since 2008 and has walked 119 batters against 82 strikeouts. That should be all one needs to know, and it should come as no surprised that his WAR over these 123.1 innings sits at -0.8. His minor league track record hasn’t offered much in the way of hope either. From 2008 to 2010, Willis has struck out 68 batters against 50 walks in 101 innings between the minor league systems of the Tigers and Giants.

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So Long, Brandon Webb?

Realistically, for Brandon Webb, Wednesday’s news was probably less a matter of “if” and more a matter of “when,” as it appears Brandon Webb’s recurring shoulder injury will shut him down for the remainder of the season. This just adds to his depressing injury history, going back a mere two years:

May 14, 2011 Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (right shoulder surgery).

March 31, 2011 Right shoulder surgery, 15-day DL (retroactive to March 22).

November 2, 2010 Missed all 162 games (right shoulder surgery).

April 17, 2010 Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (right shoulder surgery).

April 4, 2010 Right shoulder surgery, early September.

April 12, 2009 Right shoulder injury, early September.

April 8, 2009 Right shoulder injury, day-to-day.

Webb’s swift collapse under the burden of injury serves as yet another reminder of the fragility of the athlete, and even more striking, the fragility of the pitcher. Webb was among the pitching elite ever since winning the 2006 Cy Young award, a season in which he posted a 7.0 WAR thanks to a 3.18 FIP and a similarly excellent 3.10 ERA. After posting two similarly excellent seasons in 2007 and 2008, it looked like the Diamondbacks had themselves one of the games’ most consistently great pitchers. That is, until opening day of the 2009 season, where Webb only managed four innings and would throw his last pitch in the Major Leagues to date.

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What’s Eating Franklin Gutierrez?

Franklin Gutierrez earned something of a reputation as a saber darling during the 2009 season. As new general manager (and saber darling himself) Jack Zduriencik made Gutierrez the centerpiece of his first trade and the Mariners’ defense-first strategy — yes, the one that inspired “6org” — people stood up and noticed Gutierrez’s tremendous prowess in center field. He earned the nickname “Death to Flying Things” and posted a whopping 6.3 fWAR in 2009, largely behind a massive +30.9 UZR.

Regardless of your thoughts on UZR, though, it was clear that Gutierrez was at the least a pretty good player in 2009. His defense was elite by the eye test, and his bat wasn’t empty either. Gutierrez posted a .283/.339/.425 line in his first year as a Mariner, a good line made even better by how difficult it can be to hit as a right-handed batter in Safeco Field. It has been all downhill from there, however, as Gutierrez only managed an 87 wRC+ in 2010. 2011 was derailed early by a gastrointestinal bug and Gutierrez hasn’t been able to get back on track since his mid-May return: his wRC+ through his first 143 plate appearances is a miniscule 20.

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Jack Moore FanGraphs Chat – 7/5/11


Following Up On College World Series Bunts

Last week, I took a look at bunting in the World Series. Unsurprisingly, the college game contains many, many more bunts than the professional game. I surmised that college teams were bunting too often, and I made the (obvious) claim that bunts would make a large impact on the final games of the Series. Let’s take a look at what actually happened.

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