Author Archive

Can Jason Hammel Keep Handling Lefties?

The Yankees’ decision to bench Alex Rodriguez has consequences extending beyond Game 5 of the 2012 ALDS, win or lose. Staying in the here and now, it’s a decision by the Yankees to prioritize the platoon advantage — with Eric Chavez at third base instead of Rodriguez, the Yankees will be throwing seven left-handed (or switch-hitting) batters at Orioles starter Jason Hammel. Only Derek Jeter and Russell Martin will bat from the right side.

Joe Girardi is betting against a trend from this season’s New And Improved Jason Hammel: against 257 lefties, he allowed a .262 wOBA; against 236 righties, he allowed a .306 mark.

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Yu Darvish Thrives By Attacking Lefties

From Yu Darvish’s first start in the major leagues — before, for those who followed his international career — it was clear the 26-year-old phenom had the pure stuff necessary to handle major league hitters, even to thrive against them. The arsenal: a mid-to-high 90s fastball and five other pitches ranging anywhere from cutter to slider to lollipop curve, all with sharp break and solid control.

Darvish had his flashes of brilliance through the first four months of the season, as all with his talent inevitably do, but the results were disappointing: a 4.05 ERA through July with a slightly better FIP. Two issues plagued Darvish: walks, and an inability to retire left-handed hitters. Even as he struggled with his control, righties managed just a .648 OPS off Darvish in his first four months. Lefties — buoyed by 23 extra base hits compared to just 12 for righties — mustered a .721 OPS. With managers playing platoons constantly, Darvish actually faced significantly more left-handers (321) than right-handers (217). This was Darvish’s major trial.

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Joe Saunders’s Plus Skill On Display Against Rangers

The presentation of Joe Saunders as a joke has escalated ever since the Orioles had the gall to name him starter for Friday’s American League Wild Card game. Nobody is accusing Joe Saunders of greatness, but he has made a living on competency. He has a 98 career ERA- — just slightly better than average. Aggressively competent, even.

Still, it’s understandable why Saunders is treated as the kind of pitcher who should be hit hard. In both browsing his statistics and watching his pitches, he has no discernible strengths. He lives in the high 80s with his fastball. He doesn’t throw a curveball with exceptional break. He has a changeup, but he isn’t a changeup artist of the Shaun Marcum or Johan Santana variety.

But in one way, Joe Saunders has been one of the major league’s best pitchers since 2008:

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Will Ryan Dempster Attack The Zone?

It was almost too easy to call the demise of Ryan Dempster when he was dealt from the Cubs to the Rangers in July. DIPS theory will always have its share of headscratchers, but Dempster’s case was clear cut: with the Cubs, he managed a .242 BABIP and a 9.0% HR/FB compared to career marks of .301 and 10.5% respectively. Upon being moved out of one of the worst divisions and into one of the toughest — and one of the toughest parks to pitch in — Dempster has allowed a .319 BABIP and a 13.5% HR/FB. His ERA skyrocketed from 2.25 with Chicago to 4.64 with Texas. Simple stuff.

Now, thanks to a remarkable charge by Oakland, the Rangers are left with one last game to claim the American League West and avoid the dreaded Wild Card play-in game with Dempster on the hill. Even since being traded out of the cozy confines of the National League, Dempster has had success in the larger American League road parks. He allowed eight runs in six innings against the Yankees, but in his other five road starts, Dempster owns a 2.82 ERA with a 3.48 FIP, including 29 strikeouts against 10 walks in 28.2 innings.

The key difference between Dempster on the road — the Dempster we’ll see this afternoon in Oakland — and Dempster at home? Road Dempster attacks the strike zone.

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Updating Tie Scenarios, AL Wild Card and Beyond

It was a rough week for Team Entropy, as sweeps by the Orioles and Athletics knocked out most of the larger snafus the Rays and Angels could have caused over the final three games:

There’s still room for a three-way tie between the Athletics, Rays and Angels, though, and the AL East, AL West and NL Wild Card could also see tied finishes as the year comes to a close.

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Homer Bailey and Ryan Hanigan No-Hit Pittsburgh

At the end of all these no hitters, right after the 27th out, there’s the hug between the pitcher and the catcher. The whole team gets in eventually, but there’s always just a little more emotion in that pitcher-catcher connection.

Watching Homer Bailey no-hit the Pirates Friday night, I completely understand why.

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Breaking Down AL Wild Card Tie Scenarios

Things are setting up for an exciting final week in the American League Wild Card race. With the Orioles and Athletics unable to break away from the Angels and Rays — just two and three games behind Oakland respectively, and another half game behind Baltimore — it could be a wild seven days for Team Entropy. MLB will need to get its contingency plans in place, as there are a number of scenarios that lead to three or even four-team ties:

The cases in black preclude involvement in any tie. Every other result for each team leads to at least the possibility of involvement in a three or even four team tie after 162 games. Then, of course, the question becomes just how likely each possibility is.

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With Greinke, Always More Questions Than Answers

No pitcher’s starts leave me with more questions than Zack Greinke’s. Everybody knows he can be great — see his dominant 2009, the second half of 2011 — but he doesn’t always live up to the hype or the peripherals — 2010, the first half of 2011.

When he’s on, he’s nearly impossible to hit; when he’s off, it’s nearly impossible to tell why. Consider his 2011:

May/June: 62.1 IP, 80 K, 12 BB, 8 HR, 66 H, 5.63 ERA, 2.80 FIP
Rest of season: 109.1 IP, 121 K, 33 BB, 11 HR, 95 H, 2.80 ERA, 3.08 FIP

Tuesday night’s start against the Seattle Mariners stuffed all the bewilderment of Zack Greinke into one start — Greinke set a modern day record, becoming the first starter ever to strike out 13 batters in a five-inning start. But in those five innings, the Mariners still managed two walks and seven hits including a home run. It was one of the game’s most dominating starts and yet nine of 24 Mariners reached base — a .375 OBP! — and four managed extra base hits.

Again, we are left with more questions than answers.

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Matt Harvey’s Excellent Debut and the Next Step

Matt Harvey’s first MLB season is over. In 59.1 innings, the 23-year-old gave the Mets everything they could hope for and more from a top-tier pitching prospect. His seven-inning, one-run performance Wednesday against the Phillies dropped his ERA to 2.73, paired with a solid 3.30 FIP. His seven strikeouts marked the sixth time he reached that mark in 10 starts; only Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer struck out more than Harvey’s 10.62 batters per nine innings among starters with 50 innings pitched.

His final start showcased everything that defined his season — the big fastball — hitting 97 at times — the breaking pitches to keep hitters off balance, the strikeouts, and the occasional lapses in control.

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The Orioles and the Most Influential Bullpen

Wei-Yin Chen gave up two runs in just 5.1 innings Tuesday against the Mariners. The next 12.2 innings all belonged to the Baltimore bullpen. Their response? Six hits, four walks, 16 strikeouts and zero runs, with all but one of those 12.2 innings requiring a shutout just to keep the game going.

As a result, Steve Johnson, Darren O’Day, Tommy Hunter, Jake Arrieta, Pedro Strop, Jim Johnson and Brian Matusz combined for a massive 1.170 WPA on the game. The Orioles bullpen now owns a 12.51 WPA for the whole season, with yesterday’s performance enough to push them over the 1984 Tigers for the highest season bullpen WPA since our reports carry the data (back to 1974). Judging by the historical data, this Orioles bullpen has been the most influential in recent major league history.

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