A new list of World Series and playoff odds is up at Bovada. There are, at this point, few surprises. By September, we have a good idea of who the contenders and pretenders are; we know the teams on the periphery and we know the teams right in the thick of races. Seeing Texas and Cincinnati favored to win their leagues shouldn’t surprise anybody.

There is one particular bet, however, that caught my eye.

MLB Special – Will the Baltimore Orioles make the playoffs in 2012?
Yes -115 (bet 115 to make 100)
No -115

The Orioles at even odds to make the playoffs? You would be laughed out of the room back in April, but in September, with Baltimore tied atop the AL East and 3.5 games clear of the Angels for the Wild Card, it’s a sign that Vegas still isn’t buying the Orioles.

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There is no hitting A.J. Griffin this season. The 24-year-old rookie continued his remarkable run through the American League Wednesday night as he stifled the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim to the tune of eight shutout innings. The swiftly rising righty struck out six Angles against six hits and no walks. The dominant outing lowered Griffin’s ERA to 1.94 to go with an splendid 2.98 FIP.

The plan of attack for Griffin was a simple one: get ahead and stay ahead. The Angels seemed only happy to oblige.

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Jake Peavy put together a good start Tuesday for the White Sox in the middle of a massively important series with Detroit on Tuesday. The veteran righty went just 5.2 innings but struck out nine, allowing three runs on six hits and two walks. Although not a “Quality Start” by the typical measure, it was according to his 52 Game Score. Such denotations as “quality,” though, will always be subjective and open to debate.

If it weren’t for Peavy’s struggles in the fifth inning, any discussions surrounding Tuesday’s start would be unnecessary. Peavy cruised into the frame, allowing just three singles and a walk while striking out five throughout the first four innings. Of 59 pitches, Peavy faced just 14 counts with more balls than strikes; half came on full counts and five came in two at-bats (both resulting in outs).

But then came the fifth, and Peavy stopped getting ahead.

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The Nationals’ plan to compete this year was a simple one: Trot out a rotation ballasted by Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann and Gio Gonzalez, and hope somebody besides Ryan Zimmerman hits the ball.

There was little reason to believe that somebody would be Adam LaRoche. At 32, LaRoche was coming off a season of 45 awful games: 151 plate appearances of .172/.288/.258 hitting. A torn labrum sidelined him for the final four months of the season, and some sort of back injury was a yearly occurrence. His best season came six years ago when he was still with the Braves, a 32-homer affair with a 127 wRC+, his only campaign over 120.

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Tom Layne’s major league career is just 157 pitches old. Typically, this is not great news for a 27-year-old. Layne, however, has put together an exemplary 157 pitches to open his time in the big leagues. Following a one-out save Wednesday night, Layne sits with a 1.74 ERA and a 17-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first 10.1 major league innings. Even Layne’s two runs allowed only scored after a new Padres pitcher allowed the inherited runners in.

Layne was acquired from the Diamondbacks on May 2nd for “future considerations,” then a career minor league starter coming off a 6.21 Triple-A ERA in his age-26 season — essentially defining the “org guy.” Layne started with the Padres as well at first, rattling off five more Triple-A starts with a 7.77 ERA. Those struggles may have done more for his career than any prior minor league successes — by June, Layne was sent to Double-A San Antonio. He allowed 10 earned runs in his first two starts there, was converted to a reliever, and his quest to the majors began anew.

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Announcers and hitting coaches love to talk about hitting the ball to all fields, and especially hitting the ball to all fields with power. Not every elite hitter uses such an approach — Jose Bautista uses left field almost exclusively, for example. But Bautista’s way of hitting — pure pull power, with tons of fly balls — has it’s drawbacks; it is a finely tuned system available to a select few specimens.

After the 2010 season, it wasn’t clear Ryan Braun would become the elite power hitter suggested by his explosive 34-homer, .634 SLG, .310 ISO debut season. Every season after he came up, his ISO dipped by at least 34 points until he slugged just .501 with 25 homers in 2010. Braun was never the kind of pull power hitter Bautista embodies, but much of his power away from left field came in the form of doubles (45 in 2010), not home runs.

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For a little while, Toronto was showing the makings of a playoff contender. An excellent offense built around Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion and a surprisingly solid starting rotation built around Brandon Morrow kept the Blue Jays in games for the first half of the season. But the injuries piled up, particularly on the pitching end, prompting inquiries into record-setting injury paces.

And so it’s no surprise the Blue Jays own one of the league’s worst starting rotations with respect to WAR (+4.5, 26th) and ERA (4.81, 25th). From beneath this heap of pain and misery, however, one bright spot has emerged. Rotation replacement Carlos Villanueva continued to groove as a starter Thursday against the Rays, tossing six shutout innings with seven strikeouts and just six baserunners allowed.

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The Cardinals must be glad they won’t be seeing the Pirates again this season. Not because the Pirates were a particular thorn in the Cardinals’ side — the Pirates won the season series 8-7, but the Cardinals have had greater struggles against the Braves (1-5) and, oddly enough, the Phillies (2-5). No, the Cardinals must be glad because they’ve seen the last of Pedro Alvarez, at least until a potential playoff matchup.

Alvarez closed the season series with a home run, a double and three RBI as part of a 2-for-4 night, bringing his line for the series up to 23-for-58 with four doubles, seven home runs and seven walks. All-in-all, Alvarez compiled a .534 wOBA throughout the assault. More importantly, with the Cardinals and Pirates separated by just one game in the standings, Alvarez made the damage count — in just 15 games, Alvarez produced a massive 1.7 WPA.

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“It’s his second start and he looks like he’s in midseason form!”

An exasperated Matt Underwood of SportsTime Ohio let out the preceding utterance after Brett Anderson dropped a 78 MPH curveball in for a strike on Cleveland’s Brent Lillibridge with a 1-1 count in the bottom of the third inning Monday. Even by that point it had become a familiar sight for Underwood and the hapless Indians. All told, Anderson used his off-speed trio — curveball, slider, changeup — 42 times, and 27 of them went for strikes.

Lillibridge struck out swinging on a 2-2 curveball biting down and in. He was one of five strikeout victims and one of 13 straight retired by Anderson to open the game. The positively svelte Anderson cruised through seven shutout innings, continuing to look the part of staff anchor just as the club needs him most.

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Eleven innings after his departure Jaime Garcia’s return to the Cardinals’ rotation was buried by the absurdity of one of the season’s longest games. After battling back from one run down in the 16th inning, the Cardinals scraped one across to keep the game going, but a Pedro Alvarez home run in the 19th sealed a victory for the Pirates.

But as we look long-term for the Cardinals – now tied with the Pirates and Giants for the second National League Wild Card – it could be Garcia’s excellent start that carries the most meaning of anything from Sunday’s action. The lefty lasted eight innings in his first start since June 5th, striking out 10 and allowing just two unearned runs on five hits and no walks.

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