Author Archive

Fitting an Average Adam Dunn into the White Sox Lineup

It’s not as bad as it was a month ago. Then the White Sox were 10-19 and were scoring just 3.9 runs per game, which put them near the bottom of the league in most respects. Since then they’ve gone 15-12 and have scored 4.22 runs per game. That mark is second in the division only to Detroit, and has the Sox inching back into contention. As you can imagine, the Sox have seen many improvements on offense, going from a .295 wOBA in April to a .329 wOBA in May. That includes an improvement from Adam Dunn, who in creased his wOBA from .271 to .299 in the month of May. But he’s still well below expectations. Considering his spot in the Sox lineup, he really is holding them back.

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The Morning After: Game Recaps for May 30th

Sorry for the lack of screen cap. MLB.com now allows video embedding, but it’s apparently not working here.

Angels 10, Royals 8

Moving the Needle: Torii Hunter caps the late comeback with a go-ahead homer in the ninth, +.640 WPA. For the home team, the above graph ranks among the saddest. The Royals built up a 6-1 lead after two, and even after seven innings they led 8-5. A pair of solo homers in the eighth put the Angels to within one, and then Hunter’s two-run shot gave the Angels the lead. It was Hunter’s second of the game, and his fourth RBI. Joakim Soria continues to struggle. He has just six 1-2-3 innings in his 23 appearances this year.

Notables

Bobby Abreu: 4 for 5, 2 2B. He drove in two and scored following both doubles.

Eric Hosmer: 2 for 5, 1 2B, 1 HR. He drove in half the Royals’ runs. It appears as though selectivity is the only thing holding him back from monster numbers right now.


Also in this issue: White Sox 7, Red Sox 3 | Diamondbacks 15, Marlins 4 | Tigers 6, Twins 5 | Padres 3, Braves 2 | Astros 12, Cubs 7 | Yankees 5, A’s 0 | Reds 7, Brewers 3 | Mariners 4, Orioles 3 | Dodgers 7, Rockies 1 | Rangers 11, Rays 5 | Phillies 5, Nationals 4 | Blue Jays 11, Indians 1 | Mets 7, Pirates 3 | Giants 7, Cardinals 3

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Is Lack of Power Holding Back the Angels?

Not all wOBAs are created equal. Nor should they be. There are many ways to produce runs, and wOBA weighs each type in kind. It can create some amusing scenarios. My favorite involves Kosuke Fukudome. He has just five extra base hits, one homer, in 147 PA this year, yet has a .377 wOBA. Rickie Weeks has an identical wOBA, but has a .202 ISO. On an individual level this probably doesn’t make much of a difference, since there are nine other guys involved in run scoring. But on a team level, a skewed wOBA can present problems.

The 2011 Anaheim Angels have a .317 wOBA as a team, which is just a tick above the league average of .315. There are four teams clustered in the middle of the wOBA leader boards, ranging from .314 to .317. It’s safe to say that the Angels have a league average offense this year. Yet they have scored just 3.87 runs per game, which is more than a third of a run below the AL average, and ranks just 11th in the AL. Could their lack of power be the main culprit?

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The Morning After: Game Recaps for May 26th

Gotta eat that throw, Juan.

White Sox 3, Blue Jays 1

Moving the Needle: Juan Pierre singles, but Juan Rivera’s error costs the Jays, +.405 WPA. This is the kind of thing that probably wouldn’t happen if the Jays had an actual first baseman playing first. With runners on second and third in the top of the ninth, Pierre slapped one down the first base line. Rivera, playing behind the bag, fielded it cleanly, but clearly did not have a play on Pierre. Yet he still tossed it underhand to Marc Rzepczynski, who was running to cover. It was a bad throw, and it caused Rzepczynski to crash into the bag. More importantly for the game’s outcome, it caused the ball to roll away and allow the runner from second to score. That made it 3-1, and the Sox held on in the bottom half to win it.

Notables

Brandon Morrow: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 5 K. He ran into trouble from time to time, but he worked out of it. This was the first time he’s finished seven innings this season.

Phil Humber: 7.2 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HR. The White Sox have six men in the rotation, and surprisingly Humber probably isn’t the guy who gets knocked to the pen when they pare down to five.

Also in this issue: A’s 4, Angels 3 | Cubs 9, Mets 3 | Orioles 6, Royals 5 | Diamondbacks 6, Rockies 3 | Red Sox 14, Tigers 1 | Phillies 10, Reds 4 | Marlins 1, Giants 0

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The Morning After: Game Recaps for May 25th

It is, quite literally, a new ballgame.

Phillies 5, Reds 4

Moving the Needle: Ryan Howard matches Jay Bruce with an extra innings homer, +.440. It’s kind of disappointing to have a game go to 19 innings, and the walk-off hit doesn’t even top the WPA chart. Of course, it’s the same story we see in many other walk-off situations: the Phillies had loaded the bases with one out, and a sac fly won it. Their biggest boost came in the bottom of the 10th, when, trailing 4-3 thanks to a Bruce homer in the top of the inning, Howard blasted one out to center. Little did they know that they’d essentially play another full game after that.

Notables

Jay Bruce: 3 for 8, 1 HR, 3 RBI. The surge continues.

Ben Francisco: 1 for 4, 1 HR. His first-inning two-run homer made it feel as though Philly would run away with this one, especially with Halladay on the mound.

Also in this issue: Angels 4, A’s 1 | Mets 7, Cubs 4 | Orioles 9, Royals 2 | Diamondbacks 2, Rockies 1 | Red Sox 14, Indians 2 | Astros 2, Dodgers 1 | Mariners 3, Twins 0 | Brewers 6, Nationals 4 | Yankees 7, Blue Jays 3 | Rangers 2, White Sox 1 | Braves 4, Pirates 2 | Padres 3, Cardinals 1 | Marlins 7, Giants 6

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What Johan Santana’s Return to the Mound Means

It seemed unlikely that the Mets would be the center of baseball attention any time during the 2011 season. They made a splash by hiring Sandy Alderson and his cast of familiar faces to run the front office, but they made mostly small moves this winter, knowing that the pieces just weren’t there to contend. The biggest buzz most of us expected was a potential Jose Reyes trade, and even then the buzz would be Reyes, not necessarily the entire Mets team.

That changed, of course, when this week’s New Yorker dropped on Monday morning. Within its pages team owner Fred Wilpon was quoted as saying some less than flattering things about his team and its players. As if that weren’t enough, the latest issue of Sports Illustrated also features and article about Wilpon, in which he talks about the team’s financial woes. They’re taking losses, and while they have money coming off the books this winter they might not be able to reinvest all of it. That might make things tougher for the 2012 team as well.

The Mets did get some good news, though, that can perhaps inspire optimism for the coming off-season and even 2012. According to ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin, injured ace Johan Santana threw off a full mound on Monday, for the first time since he struck out Omar Infante on September 2, 2010. His return this season could help the Mets considerably.

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The Morning After: Game Recaps for May 24th

Kickin’ up some chalk.

Brewers 7, Nationals 6

Moving the Needle: Jonathan Lucroy gives the Brewers the lead in the eighth, +.550 WPA. A little inside-out swing is all it took. Lucroy’s bloop hit the foul line and, to the Brewers’ benefit, did not bounce into the stands. It allowed the trail runner, Brandon Boggs, to score. The throw actually beat him, but Wilson Ramos could not hang on. That put the Brewers up 7-6, and John Axford would come on to save the win. Lucroy also hit a solo homer in the game.

Notables

Corey Hart: 2 for 4, 1 HR. That’s four homers in two days for Hart. He’s just a bit better fit in the two-hole than Carlos Gomez.

Mike Morse: 3 for 5, 1 2B, 1 HR. Nothing much really to say; it’s been kind of a blah season for Morse.

Also in this issue: A’s 6, Angels 1 | Cubs 11, Mets 1 | Orioles 5, Royals 3 | Rockies 12, Diamondbacks 4 | Diamondbacks 5, Rockies 2 | Red Sox 4, Indians 2 | Tigers 7, Rays 6 | Dodgers 5, Astros 4 | Twins 4, Mariners 2 | Yankees 5, Blue Jays 4 | Reds 6, Phillies 3 | White Sox 8, Rangers 6 | Braves 2, Pirates 0 | Cardinals 3, Padres 2 | Marlins 5, Giants 1

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Jay Bruce and the Problem with Player Evaluation

From the start, Jay Bruce has done just what every fan wants to see from a young player who just signed a contract extension. He started out on fire, going 15 for his first 30, with three doubles and four homers. Of course, a .500/.531/1.000 line wouldn’t last forever, but it put everyone at ease, especially after his .306/.376/.575 line in the second half of 2010. He has streaked and slumped a bit since then, as one might expect. After an 0-for-3 performance last night he’s down to .282/.349/.535, though those are still quite excellent numbers — a .386 wOBA, which ranks sixth among NL outfielders. If he catches fire again, he could start climbing that leaderboard again.

Only, that’s not exactly true. Yes, Bruce does have a .386 wOBA, and that does rank sixth among NL outfielders. But it took Bruce a while to get there. In fact, the streak described above is currently happening, while the slump, including that 0-for-3 performance, occurred a bit earlier in the season. It doesn’t change the end result, but it does change the narrative.

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The Morning After: Game Recaps for May 23rd

It’s not quite a chest bump, but it’ll do.

Astros 4, Dodgers 3

Moving the Needle: Michael Bourn doubles home the tying runs and sets up the victory, +.469 WPA. In a way, it was compensation for an error that cost his team a run. In the seventh, the Dodgers had runners on first and second with two out when Andre Ethier grounded one up the middle. Bourn charged, probably in an attempt to nab the slow Dioner Navarro trying to score from second. But he missed the ball. By the time he recovered the Dodgers had scored two. When he came up in the ninth he was in the same situation, first and second with two outs, but Bill Hall did him a solid by starting a double steal. Bourn then doubled down the right field line to tie the game, which put him in position to score when Hunter Pence singled.

Notables

Bill Hall: 2 for 4, 2 2B. His Astros tenure hasn’t gone well so far, but he played a huge part in this win.

Clayton Kershaw: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 7 K. He was at only 84 pitches, but he was lifted in the top of the seventh for Ethier.

Also in this issue: Angels 4, A’s 1 | Indian 3, Astros 2 | Brewers 11, Nationals 3 | Tigers 6, Rays 3 | Phillies 10, Reds 3 | Mariners 8, Twins 7 | Cardinals 3, Padres 1 | Blue Jays 7, Yankees 3 | Rangers 4, White Sox 0

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Curtis Granderson’s Remarkable Home Run Pace

In the first inning of yesterday’s game against the Mets, Yankees center fielder Curtis Granderson ripped a low and inside pitch well over the right-field wall at Yankee Stadium. It was his 16th home run of the year, just two behind the torrid pace Jose Bautista has set. Most stories written about Granderson marvel at the turnaround he has made: since he and hitting coach Kevin Long tweaked his swing last August he has hit 30 home runs, which is the second most in baseball during that span (to Bautista, of course). What I haven’t yet seen is how Granderson’s spot on the defensive spectrum makes his run more remarkable.

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