Cardinals 7, Astros 4

Moving the Needle: Jake Westbrook helps his own cause with a three-RBI double, +.301 WPA. The Cardinals jumped out to an early 2-0 lead when Lance Berkman smacked a two-run homer, but the Astros got both back when Carlos Lee did the same in the bottom half. That takes us to the fourth, when Westbrook came up with the bases loaded. He laced one into the gap, and although it didn’t get to the wall it was still deep enough to bring around all three runners (there were two out), giving the Cards a 5-2 lead, which was just the cushion they needed.

Notables

Albert Pujols: 1 for 4, 1 HR. That’s four straight with a homer for Albert.

Also in this issue: Rays 4, Angels 1 | Reds 8, Cubs 2 | Orioles 4, A’s 0 | Braves 1, Marlins 0 | White Sox 5, Mariners 1 | Indians 1, Twins 0 | Mets 2, Brewers 1 | Blue Jays 8, Royals 5 | Dodgers 6, Phillies 2 | Red Sox 6, Yankees 4 | Pirates 8, Diamondbacks 5 | Tigers 8, Rangers 1 | Padres 2, Rockies 0 | Nationals 2, Giants 1

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With a salute to Lucas in the title.

We see it so often. It’s late in a close game, where one swing can make the difference. On the mound is a right-handed pitcher. His identity doesn’t much matter, really. He could have reverse platoon splits for all we know. But if a lefty is due up, you’ll see the manager stroll out of the dugout while pointing to his left arm. On the flip side, you might not see left-handed hitter in the game at all if the opposition has one of its southpaws on the mound.

Managers play the platoon splits constantly, but it seems to affect lefties more than righties. That is, there are a number of right-handed hitters on the vs. RHP splits leader boards. But there are very few lefties that rank among the best at hitting lefties. If you look at the vs. LHP splits from 2009 through 2011, you’ll see the usual list of right-handed hitters. Among them you’ll also see some unsurprising lefties. Chase Utley has fared better than any lefty against LHP in the past three years, and Joey Votto isn’t far behind him. What might surprise you is the name that sits in the 34th spot out of the 150 qualified hitters: Kelly Johnson.

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Giants 5, Nationals 4

Moving the Needle: Freddy Sanchez ends it in the 13th with a walk-off hit, +.372 WPA. The Nats had a 4-0 lead through six, and they were up 4-1 through seven. But the bullpen blew it in the eighth. The Giants picked up three to tie, and then nearly walked off with the win in the ninth. Both teams had their chances in extras, but it wasn’t until the 13th that the Giants finally came through. A walk and hit set up Sanchez, who hit an easy double down the right field line. Of course, he gets credit for only a single, but I don’t think that much matters.

Notables

Aaron Rowand: 1 for 6, 1 HR. His seventh-inning shot got the Giants rolling.

Mike Morse: 2 for 5, 1 2B, 1 HR. In 465 PA in the last two seasons he has a .371 wOBA.

John Lannan: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 6 K. It’s the same old peripherals, same old results for Lannan. It’s still a wonder how he keeps his ERA below his FIP. (Except last year, of course.)

Also in this issue: Rays 5, Angels 1 | Reds 8, Cubs 2 | Orioles 4, A’s 2 | Brewers 7, Marlins 2 | White Sox 3, Mariners 1 | Phillies 3, Dodgers 1 | Twins 6, Indians 4 | Rockies 3, Padres 0 | Royals 3, Blue Jays 2 | Tigers 13, Rangers 7

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Cardinals 3, Cubs 2

Moving the Needle: Ryan Theriot ties the game in the ninth with a double, +.512 WPA. Damn WPA and its favoring of dramatic, game-tying moments in the later innings. If it weren’t for Teriot tying the game, though, there wouldn’t have been a chance for Albert Pujols to hit his second walk-off homer in two days. But let’s for a second step back and praise Theriot, who extended the game by an inning with his double. Really, even if you’re a Cards fan you have to appreciate that, if for nothing other than the feel-goodness of the walk-off.

Notables

Albert Pujols: 2 for 4, 1 HR, 1 BB. For the series he went 6 for 11 with a double and four homers. Back?

Chris Carpenter: 9 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 6 K. He was just setting ’em up for Pujols, anyway.

Cardinals 6, Cubs 1
Cardinals 5, Cubs 4

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Since he moved to the NL in 2006, Bronson Arroyo has become well acquainted with the home run ball. Take any three-year period from 2006 through 2010 and you’ll see Arroyo’s name near the top. In fact, things have gotten worse — relatively — as time has passed. Looking at pitchers who threw 500 innings in a three-year span, Arroyo has gone from tenth (2006 to 2008) to fifth (2007 to 2009) to third (2008 to 2010) in HR/9. But he’s outdone himself this year: In 62.2 innings he has allowed 14 home runs — or a 2.01/9 IP rate. That’s the worst among qualified pitchers.

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Mets 9, Pirates 8

Moving the Needle: Ruben Tejada takes home on a passed ball, +.180 WPA. Remember two nights ago, when the Pirates got like six straight lucky breaks and took the lead against the Mets? Well, the baseball gods apparently felt bad about that whole ordeal and decided to turn the tables in yesterday’s game. The Pirates jumped out to a 3-0 lead in the first, and in the third they scored their seventh run. The Mets started the comeback in the bottom half when Carlos Beltran belted a three-run shot off the facing of the second deck in left-center. It was in the sixth when the Mets would get their breaks. They worked for the runs, no doubt, riding a double and two walks to a bases loaded, two outs situation. Two singles made it 7-6. Chris Resop came in to relieve Paul Maholm, and on the first pitch he kinda missed the target — though it was just to the other side of the plate. In any case, Dusty Brown missed it, and it hit off his glove, bouncing far enough away that Tejada scored easily, tying the game. Tejada would later hit the go-ahead sac fly. He drove in three in the game.

Notables

Neil Walker: 2 for 5, 1 HR. After a hot start to his sophomore season he’s been pretty mediocre since. Even on his current seven-game hit streak he’s just 10 for 30 with a double and that homer.

Also in this issue: Rangers 7, Indians 4 | Nationals 6, Diamondbacks 1 | Twins 8, Royals 2 | Mariners 8, Rays 2 | Giants 12, Cardinals 7 | Astros 7, Padres 4

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The Yankees have a problem with their offense, though you wouldn’t know it by looking at the aggregate numbers. They not only lead the AL in scoring, but they are the only team that has scored more than five runs per game. Their lead over the next closest team is nearly a third of a run. Their team .345 wOBA leads the majors, and even with a park adjustment their 117 wRC+ leads as well. They are the only team that has three players with double-digit home runs, and two of those players rank in the top four. Pick any offensive measure and they’re sure to grade out at or near the top. So where’s the problem? Strangely enough, it involves the one position reserved solely for hitters.

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Reds 4, Brewers 3

Moving the Needle: Joey Votto’s two-run blast gives the Reds the lead late, +.608 WPA. You can try to hold back the Reds, but when they have Votto and Jay Bruce hitting 3-4, chances are you’re going to get burned at some point. The Brewers jumped out to an early lead and were holding on at 3-0 heading into the bottom of the seventh. Votto single, Bruce homer. Simple as that, and it took just six pitches. Then, in the bottom of the eighth, with a runner on first and two outs, Votto annihilated a pitch. As in, it was going to dead center, but he still did the subtle bat flip at the plate. It hit off the deck well above the 404 sign. I can’t wait to see what that registers on Hit Tracker.

Notables

Shaun Marcum: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 7 K, 1 HR. When your only infraction is a homer to Bruce, you’re probably OK.

Rickie Weeks: 2 for 4, 1 HR. His homer came on the second pitch of the game, and was his 10th of the season.

Also in this issue: White Sox 7, Red Sox 4 | Diamondbacks 6, Marlins 5 | Tigers 4, Twins 2 | Braves 4, Padres 3 | Royals 2, Angels 0 | Astros 3, Cubs 1 | Yankees 4, A’s 2 | Rockies 3, Dodgers 0 | Orioles 2, Mariners 1 | Rangers 3, Rays 0 | Nationals 2, Phillies 1 | Indians 13, Blue Jays 9 | Pirates 9, Mets 3 | Giants 7, Cardinals 5

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The next installment in our Trade Target series involves third basemen. This is an area of opportunity for a few contenders, since there are quite a few above-average third basemen who could become available. Since the average third baseman hits just about the same as the average shortstop and the average second baseman, a trade for one of these candidates will provide a considerable positional advantage.

PLAYER: David Wright
TEAM: Mets
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Rockies, Tigers
CONTRACT STATUS: $14 million in 2011, $15 million in 2012 and a $16 million 2013 option ($1 million buyout)
PROJECTED WAR: 1.5 to 2.5, depending on playing time and defense

ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin provided instant fodder for this installment when he reported that the Mets could choose to trade Wright this summer or in the offseason. Of course, he’ll have to get back on the field first. He suffered a stress fracture in his back earlier this year, and has been out since May 15th. The Mets won’t have a timetable until later this week, but he figures to be back soon enough. That allows him time to get back into a rhythm and shape up for a potential trade.

What are the real chances that the Mets trade Wright at the deadline? It’s hard to say, given the team’s financial situation and the payroll it currently holds. Do they want to keep Jose Reyes long term? Do they think they can unload part of Johan Santana’s contract? These are questions that play into the decision of whether to trade wright. If they do choose to, they’ll find a few suitors that can probably pick up the tab. The Rockies and the Tigers immediately come to mind, as they’re contending teams with virtual black holes at third base (.266 and .264 wOBAs, respectively). Wright would provide an enormous swing — especially in Colorado, where his bat would presumably play better.

On the issue of Wright’s defense, it does, on some level, reduce his WAR projection. But it’s a little curious that a guy who basically had a neutral UZR in the final four years at Shea Stadium all the sudden fell off a cliff when moving to a new ballpark. Put that way, Wright could use a change of scenery, both figuratively and literally.

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Mariners 3, Orioles 2

Moving the Needle: Justin Smoak ruins Jeremy Guthrie’s start with a three run homer, +.750 WPA. That’s one of the biggest swings you’ll see without a walk-off. Through seven Guthrie was rolling. He had struck out eight and allowed just three hits. Even in the eighth he should have been out of it, though it was kind of his own fault. With two down he got Ichiro to hit one on the ground. Luke Scott dived to field it and led Guthrie with a throw from his knees, but Guthrie didn’t catch it. Brendan Ryan followed with a single, and then Smoak hammered a hanger over the right field wall to flip the 2-0 deficit into a 3-2 lead.

Notables

Erik Bedard: 6.1 IP, 6 H 2, R, 2 BB, 7 K, 1 HR. With Bedard healthy and effective, it’s little surprise that the Mariners have allowed the second fewest runs per game in the AL.

Also in this issue: White Sox 10, Red Sox 7 | Marlins 5, Diamondbacks 2 | Tigers 8, Twins 7 | Padres 5, Braves 4 | Royals 7, Angels 3 | Astros 7, Cubs 3 | Yankees 10, A’s 3 | Brewers 7, Reds 2 | Dodgers 8, Rockies 2 | Rays 5, Rangers 4 | Nationals 10, Phillies 2 | Indians 6, Blue Jays 3 | Pirates 5, Mets 1 | Cardinals 4, Giants 3

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