KATOH Projects: Tampa Bay Rays Prospects
Previous editions: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles (AL) / Los Angeles (NL) / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York (AL) / New York (NL) / Oakland / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / St. Louis.
Last week, lead prospect analyst Dan Farnsworth published his excellently in-depth prospect list for the Tampa Bay Rays. In this companion piece, I look at that same Tampa farm system through the lens of my recently refined KATOH projection system. The Rays have the eighth-best farm system in baseball according to KATOH.
There’s way more to prospect evaluation than just the stats, so if you haven’t already, I highly recommend you read Dan’s piece in addition to this one. KATOH has no idea how hard a pitcher throws, how good a hitter’s bat speed is, or what a player’s makeup is like. So it’s liable to miss big on players whose tools don’t line up with their performances. However, when paired with more scouting-based analyses, KATOH’s objectivity can be useful in identifying talented players who might be overlooked by the industry consensus or highly-touted prospects who might be over-hyped.
Below, I’ve grouped prospects into three groups: those who are forecast for two or more wins through their first six major-league seasons, those who receive a projection between 1.0 and 2.0 WAR though their first six seasons, and then any residual players who received Future Value (FV) grades of 45 or higher from Dan. Note that I generated forecasts only for players who accrued at least 200 plate appearances or batters faced last season. Also note that the projections for players over a relatively small sample are less reliable, especially when those samples came in the low minors.
*****
1. Jake Bauers, 1B (Profile)
KATOH Projection: 8.2 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 45 FV
Bauers spent his age-19 season squaring off against High-A and Double-A pitchers, and more than held his own. Bauers didn’t show any glaring weaknesses offensively, and rode a 14% strikeout rate to a .273/.347/.422 batting line. Bauers doesn’t have the power of a traditional first baseman, but he excels in every other offensive area. Considering how young he’s been for his level, that’s quite an accomplishment.
| Rank | Name | Proj. WAR | Actual WAR |
| 1 | James Loney | 6.0 | 6.7 |
| 2 | Adrian Gonzalez | 5.2 | 19.1 |
| 3 | Justin Morneau | 6.5 | 14.9 |
| 4 | Randall Simon | 5.7 | 1.5 |
| 5 | Rico Brogna | 6.6 | 4.4 |
| 6 | Paul Konerko | 8.9 | 9.2 |
| 7 | Prince Fielder | 11.3 | 24.9 |
| 8 | Kyle Blanks | 5.4 | 3.7 |
| 9 | Derrek Lee | 6.4 | 14.6 |
| 10 | Roberto Petagine | 5.5 | 1.0 |