Author Archive

The Story of SABR101x

Professor Andy Andres remembers the first year that he and his colleagues, David Tybor and Morgan Melchiorre, taught the Sabermetrics 101 course at Tufts University. One of the more memorable lectures came on October 18, 2004, which was a pretty memorable night in New England. Though Game 5 of the American League Championship Series had started around 5 pm, Sabermetrics 101 — which met in the evenings — was still in session. At least for a time.

“We felt like we had to get through the lecture,” Andres recalls. “So Tybor and I, he’s got the radio, and every half inning we’d write the line score [on the blackboard].” But then in the eighth inning, David Ortiz belted a homer into the Monster seats. Andres and Tybor consulted, but determined that since Melchiorre had been lecturing about Derek Jeter’s defense at the time that they should let him preach, hoping the good karma would continue to rub off on the team. But they weren’t the only ones who had learned of Ortiz’s feats. “One of the girls in the back of the room, went ‘Wahooooooo, Ortiz just hit a home run!” Class dismissed. “We immediately shut it down, and switched to FOX,” Andres says.

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FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 5/20/14

5:47
Paul Swydan: Hi guys, join me tonight at 9 pm ET. I put up some polls, so vote for those and then get your questions in. Or, get your questions in and then vote. Or just come back at 9. Look, do something, OK?

9:01
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Let’s chat.

9:01
Comment From Matt
Do you still have faith in Wil Myers turning it around this season? Any power?

9:02
Paul Swydan: His swing percentages are improving, and his plate discipline percentages are either the same or improving. It’s his batted ball mix. More grounders, more infield popups, fewer homers. I’m inclined to think that this will correct itself once he adjusts back to the adjustments pitchers have made on him. I’m not worried.

9:02
Comment From Markkk
Is Josh Donaldson really this good? SSS?

9:03
Paul Swydan: Well, he’s been this good for going on nine-10 months, so I’m not willing to call him a fluke at this point.

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The Best of FanGraphs: May 12-16, 2014

If you missed the inaugural post of The Best Of FanGraphs, you can do so here. In case you don’t feel like clicking through though, here is how this post is structured:

We’ll pull from the whole FanGraphs family, picking 10-15 stories that we feel you really should read before the week draws to a close. The links are color coded — green for FanGraphs, burnt sienna for RotoGraphs, purple for NotGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times and blue for Community. They are listed in this order as well in each day, just for the sake of consistency.

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Mookie Is Coming

Mookie Betts is hitting .400. Mookie Betts has reached base in 70 consecutive games. Mookie Betts walks more often than he strikes out. Mookie Betts doesn’t have a position, but it doesn’t matter. Mookie Betts is coming.

The question is when? Since Ben Cherington took over as the team’s director of player development in 2003, the Sox have promoted 75 position players to the majors. Parsing that list for playing time, duplicates (as in someone got a September call-up but was still rookie eligible the following season) and players who weren’t really Red Sox farmhands, such as Brandon Snyder, leaves us with the following 18-player list:

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FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 5/13/14

5:43
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

Something something Tuesday the 13th something something Yamahama, it’s Fright Night!!!

https://www.youtube.com/wat…

Jeff is off tonight — AGAIN — so it’s just you and me. Well, and you too. OK, and you too.

Fire off questions, and I’ll try to cram as many into your baseball holes as possible starting at 9 pm ET.

See you soon!

9:03
Paul Swydan: Hi guys, sorry for the brief delay. Let’s do this!

9:04
Comment From Carlos Quentin
Now that I’m healthy, what do you expect from me?

9:04
Paul Swydan: I’m not sure that I’m expecting top 25 wRC+ action from you like you have shown at times in the past, but I don’t think top 50 is out of the question. Keep in mind though that that might not translate to great 5×5 numbers.

9:04
Comment From Vliet
Is Seth Smith for real?

9:05
Paul Swydan: Seth Smith has ALWAYS been a great hitter against right-handed pitching. He has NOT always been given enough plate appearances for that to shine through. Right now, he is. Ride him while he’s hot.

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The Best of FanGraphs: May 5-9, 2014

If you missed the inaugural post of The Best Of FanGraphs, you can do so here. In case you don’t feel like clicking through though, here is how this post is structured:

We’ll pull from the whole FanGraphs family, picking 10-15 stories that we feel you really should read before the week draws to a close. The links are color coded — green for FanGraphs, burnt sienna for RotoGraphs, purple for NotGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times and blue for Community. They are listed in this order as well in each day, just for the sake of consistency.

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Jake Peavy Is Living on the Edge

Generally, when you think of Jake Peavy, you often think “Cy Young winner.” But that was a long time ago. These days, Peavy lives on the edge between “effective enough” and “not fooling anybody.” He is living there because he has become more cautious about living in the heart of the plate, where he used to. His earned run average paints him as one of the better pitchers in the American League, but if you look beyond that there is definitely cause for concern.

It’s no surprise that a pitcher getting on in years would have diminished velocity, particularly one with Peavy’s injury history. And diminished his velocity is. In his last few starts, he has worked his way back up to an average fastball of 90 mph, but that is a far cry from the 92-93 mph heat he was flashing in 2007-2008. Actually, he has been in the 90 mph range for a number of years. According to our PITCHf/x numbers, his first season with an average four-seam fastball under 91 mph was 2011. As his velocity has dropped, he has worked hard to refine his control in order to stay effective. To wit:
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FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 5/6/14

7:53
Paul Swydan: Hey, guess what, I’m an idiot and I forgot to set up the chat before I went out to dinner with my in-laws. But now I’m here. You’re here. We’re all here! Well, not Jeff, he’s off tonight. But load me up with questions, and I’ll attack them with aplomb at 9 pm ET.

See you soon!

9:01
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!!! There are so many games on right now. Is this heaven?

9:01
Comment From Guest
Mark Ellis, Kolten Wong, and Greg Garcia are all sitting in favor of Daniel Descalso because, “Daniel has had a couple of hits and Mark has had some trouble with (Floyd).”

9:02
Paul Swydan: That seems like a great way to start the chat.

9:02
Paul Swydan: It’s stuff like this that keeps me believing that most of the Cardinals’ success is the players and the front office, and that Matheny just stands there and looks pretty.

9:03
Comment From Jon
For pitchers, what number is considered as good for K% and BB%? This page http://www.fangraphs.com/li… only has a table for hitters.

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The Best of FanGraphs: April 28-May 2, 2014

If you missed the inaugural post of The Best Of FanGraphs, you can do so here. In case you don’t feel like clicking through though, here is how this post is structured:

We’ll pull from the whole FanGraphs family, picking 10-15 stories that we feel you really should read before the week draws to a close. The links are color coded — green for FanGraphs, burnt sienna for RotoGraphs, purple for NotGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times and blue for Community. They are listed in this order as well in each day, just for the sake of consistency.

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Is This Troy Tulowitzki’s Year?

In the early going, much of the coverage on the Rockies has centered around Charlie Blackmon’s leap from irrelevance. Overshadowed during that time has been the even better start by Troy Tulowitzki. While generally regarded as one of the best players in the game, Tulowitzki frequently goes overlooked. But his hot start has put him in position to squarely insert himself in the Most Valuable Player Award discussion.

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