In free agency, the Los Angeles Dodgers struck quickly signing a pair of classic 4-5 starters to stabilize the back of their big league rotation in veterans Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang. When healthy, Capuano has proven to be a solid starter over his career providing relatively strong peripherals and should prove a discount over the life of the contract if he logs even 300 innings over the life of the deal.

And while Harang posted fourteen wins and a stellar 3.64 ERA, those surface numbers haven’t been important to the SABR minded since Ronald Reagan was President. In this rotation, Harang is likely the number five starter.

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In seeing Rhiner Cruz‘ name as the top pick in this year’s Rule 5 draft, my first thought was this would be the last time I ever spent a tangible amount of time prepping for it. In a moment of clarity, the Houston Astros helped me understand just how important the Rule 5 draft is NOT.

Even after reading Adam Foster’s piece breaking down Rule 5 draft picks between 2007-2010 which hammers home the fact players selected essentially have zero value on average, I was still hopeful for something…. anything worthy of excitement from a prospect perspective.

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For those who have known me awhile, my writing or talking about fairness in baseball is nothing new. From player salaries, to amateur and international signings, I’ve always been a strong proponent of minimum/maximum spending limits in all aspects of baseball to promote competitive balance. This line of thinking has even carried over to fantasy baseball as commissioners frequently become frustrated with me for pointing out loopholes and asking they be fixed.

Label me a baseball socialist — or idealistic dreamer, for that matter — but the idea of the New York Yankees spending $200+ million on the top end of the spectrum, while the Miami Marlins spend a tenth of that shopping the bargain basement is decidedly frustrating for me.

The beauty of the National Football League is that while it’s an imperfect system for players, each fan know that his team will be spending, at the very least, about 90% of what the highest-spending team is paying. Success or failure is based on talent and not simply a team’s capacity to outspend the market.

Major League Baseball is simply unable to make that argument as millions of baseball fans anticipate spring training simply hoping their favorite team doesn’t finish so far from the playoffs that the season at least remains interesting through June.

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Since being drafted third overall in the 2007 draft, few prospects have developed in more disappointing fashion than Chicago Cubs third base prospect Josh Vitters. Once considered an elite player with baseball skills including 70 power and hit tools, Vitters has stumbled to a .277/.319/.439 triple slash line across five minor league seasons. Due to these struggles, Vitters’ status as a prospect has slipped as 2011 was the first where he failed to make the Baseball America top-100.

However, 2011 also saw Vitters post his best numbers since the 2009 season in the Southern League at 21. With a .283/.322/.448 line, he has at least placed himself in a position to compete for the Cubs third base job now that Aramis Ramirez is a free agent and extremely unlikely to return to Chicago. For Vitters, the stars seem to be aligning perfectly as the Theo Epstein era, combined with his being placed on the 40-man roster equals a fresh start in an organization where the term “bust” had already been thrown around pretty liberally.

Video after the jump

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For non-prospect fans, I wonder if last Friday was just another ho-hum day in their baseball lives. 40-man protections? Who cares! Why protect players in A-Ball anyway! Call me when they are ready to help the team I root for win a World Series. Maybe the Fangraphs crowd has moved beyond that line of thinking, but has the run-of-the-mill baseball fan who turns on a ballgame after work to unwind down after a busy work day?

Truth is any baseball fan who takes the time to dissect Friday’s moves will potentially learn more about the future of their favorite organization than any other day of the year. Why? Because the reason a player is protected is simple – Their respective organization believes he is a future big leaguer. Truth is, this level of clarity is rare for an organization as the name of the game is protecting the value of assets. Read the rest of this entry »

If over a beer and a ball game, a buddy said, “Paul Goldschmidt will outhit Jason Heyward in 2012″, I would have assumed he had had one too many. With the release of Bill James‘ 2012 projections, the SABR legend said just that as the Diamondbacks first baseman is projected to produce a wOBA of .382.

Having scouted Goldschmidt in July, I came away believing he would take advantage of lesser pitching, but struggle with top flight velocity. If Goldschmidt hits to his wOBA projection, then I greatly undersold his overall hitting ability and he’s on the cusp of becoming one of the top-25 hitters in terms of wOBA in all of baseball based on final 2011 leaderboards.

Goldschmidt video after the jump

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