Author Archive
Desmond Jennings Has Rollercoaster 2011 for Rays
In 2011, the buzz about Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Desmond Jennings seems to have shifted from polarizing, to tantalizing, to polarizing once again. Apparently, I’ve somewhat positioned myself in the center of that argument on Twitter as a mention seems to come my way regarding Jennings after every multi-hit game or hitless performance. Whether gloating, or backing up my assessment of the young outfielder, Jennings the player provides for a great opportunity to discuss the black-and-white nature of scouting and just how finicky prospect followers can be.
Triple-A video of Jennings after the jump.
Rangers Cody Buckel Shows Off Advanced Arsenal
With an FIP a full half-run less than the South Atlantic League leader, to suggest that Rangers pitching prospect Cody Buckel excelled would be an understatement. Statistically, the young right-hander, whose pitching mechanics aim to emulate Giants Tim Lincecum, successfully utilized a four-pitch mix to overwhelm both younger and older hitters at the level. So why then was he only considered the 19th best prospect in the league ranking behind Colorado Rockies Tyler Matzek, who combined for a 6.22 ERA in 2011? The answer lies in Buckel’s upside projection, which falls below that of his higher velocity, bigger-bodied counterparts.
Video after the jump
Brandon Jacobs and Xander Bogaerts
The release of Baseball America’s South Atlantic League top-20 list is essentially Christmas for me, as much of my time is spent scouting the league. This season, I had the opportunity to see 11 of the top-20 prospects featured in person, which is actually a down year for me. Fortunately, the Greenville Drive, the Boston Red Sox “Sally” affiliate was well represented, with four players in the top-20, including two of the highest ceiling prospects in the system in outfielder Brandon Jacobs and shortstop Xander Bogaerts.
As two of the best hitting prospects in the league this past season, both Jacobs and Bogaerts deserve to be ranked highly on the list, and they check in 8th and 10th respectively. However, I was pretty surprised to see Jacobs edge out his teammate for a higher position on the list.
Predicting the Power Tool Using Metrics
Former Braves and current Yankees “prospect” Cody Johnson blasted the longest home run I’ve ever seen. In 2008, it came against St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Maikel Cleto (A Mets prospect at the time). Johnson turned on a 95 MPH fastball at the letters, and in turn, seared an “80 power” grade into my mind for eternity. At the time, I wasn’t really concerned about the metrics behind actually producing to the home run equivalent “80 power” (38+ home runs at the Major League level), but neither were scouting contacts. In retrospect, I should have paid more attention as his K%, 34.4%, made it impossible to project elite power from any prospect.
2011 Proves Rocky for Rockies Tyler Matzek
Late in the 2010 season, I caught my third start of Colorado Rockies pitching prospect Tyler Matzek in Savannah against the Sand Gnats. At the time, Matzek was quietly floundering at the level, but still regarded as one of the best left-handed pitching prospects in the game. Over four innings, Matzek gave up only one run, but struggled mightily commanding a fastball which began the game touching 91 mph, but finished at 85-87 mph. It was a disappointing performance from a scouting standpoint, even though his final line was that of a pitcher who bent, but did not break.
The following evening, my concern over Matzek grew over something many would not even notice. While charting pitches, it seems the young left-hander spent a few too many hours watching “The Future’s So Bright” on repeat as his shades never left his face throughout the game – causing me to think Matzek considered himself “Too Cool For School“. Had he presented as the former first-round pick who signed for $3.9 million, I probably wouldn’t have noticed. However, after a sub-par performance which left Matzek looking more project than prospect, the look struck me as indifferent, leaving a negative impression.
Braves Prospect Ronan Pacheco Is The Anti-Graphs
In 2011, the Atlanta Braves found themselves the envy of professional baseball behind a quartet of impressive young arms in Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado, Mike Minor and Arodys Vizcaino. The chatter about these young pitchers remained loud throughout the season to the point where other arms in the system were overshadowed. A handful of those names made headlines only after being dealt to the Houston Astros for Michael Bourn. That trade created a pitching void at the middle levels of the Braves organization. Cue Ronan Pacheco.
In the history of Fangraphs, I wonder how many positive pieces have ever been written about a 23-year year old pitcher in the lower minors who strikes out less than six-per-nine innings while walking a shade under four-per-nine? Knowing full well this piece will draw the ire of a great many Fangraphs readers based on the numbers alone, Pacheco is simply too perfect an example of a pitcher who bucks just about every prospect stereotype on both the statistical and scouting sides to not discuss.