One of my favorite numbers to look at is the run support provided to a given pitcher. It’s nothing necessarily sustainable but provides solid supporting evidence when discussing the validity or merit of a starting pitcher’s statistics, namely his W-L record. For instance, many understand that W-L records are not necessarily indicative of performance quality–a guy can give up 2 or 3 runs in 8 innings and lose, or give up 5 runs in 5 innings, but receive 8 runs of support and win.

Interestingly enough, that example comes pretty close to replicating both ends of the run support spectrum. John Lannan, who Dave noted should be known for more than just injuring Chase Utley last year, is at the bottom, receiving just 22 total runs in his 14 starts. When extrapolated it comes to 2.39 RS/9, a full 0.39 runs ahead of closest “competitor” Paul Byrd. However, he has a 3.36 ERA and, including unearned runs, has a RA/9 of 3.47.

On the opposite end we have Kyle Kendrick of the Phillies. In 15 starts this season Kendrick has received 74 runs of support, or 8.50 RS/9. The next closest? Oliver Perez, whose 7.47 RS/9 is over a full run less.

It comes as no surprise then that Lannan is 4-8 and Kendrick is 6-3, even though the former appears to be pitching better than the latter.

Additionally, Kendrick is no stranger to run support either, as his 7.74 RS/9 last season would be atop the Fangraphs leaderboard if his 20 starts qualified for inclusion. So, in the last two years, Kendrick has made 34 starts and received 178 runs of support. In those 34 starts he has gone 199.1 innings while allowing 99 runs (earned or unearned). Since his mid-season callup in 2007 he has gone 16-7; his 4.47 RA/9 is more than erased by his 8.04 RS/9.

Maybe Lannan should talk to Kendrick about lending him some of those runs in order to boost his barometer.

While surfing through my MLB Extra Innings package the other night I came across a bottom line statistic that piqued my interest: Pirates outfielders had (at the time) a .904 OPS, which led all of baseball. I knew Nate McLouth had gotten off to a scorching start; that Jason Bay had seemingly begun to bounce back from a disappointing 2007; and that Xavier Nady had been producing better than many gave him credit for. What I did not know, however, was that these three have arguably been the most productive outfield in the entire sport.

Looking first at their OPS, the Pirates trio all ranks in the top fifteen amongst major league outfielders. McLouth comes in 5th at .940; Bay in 7th at .932; and Nady in 14th at .886. There are no other threesomes in the top fifteen and, in fact, the only other outfields in the top thirty-five belong to the Cubs and Giants; however, Alfonso Soriano, Mark DeRosa, Kosuke Fukudome, Aaron Rowand, Fred Lewis, and Randy Winn all have a lower OPS than Nady’s .886.

When combined, the Pirates outfield is currently 229-768, in 892 PAs, complete with 55 doubles, 3 triples, 39 home runs, and 114 walks or hit by pitches. Ultimately, they are hitting .298/.385/.535, good for a .920 OPS.

Reverting to WPA furthers their case: all three are in the top twelve amongst major league outfielders. Bay ranks 3rd with a 2.81 WPA; McLouth is 9th at 1.76; and Nady comes in at 12th with a 1.56. Added together, these three have contributed 6.13 wins.

Pat Burrell is far and away the outfield leader, at 4.40, but the next closest Phillies OF Shane Victorino has a -0.96 WPA. Additionally, both Manny Ramirez and J.D. Drew rank in the top ten with a combined 4.64; however, even with Jacoby Ellsbury added in they increase only to 5.26, still almost a full win lower than the Bucs.

If I had to put money on it I would say the Red Sox will surpass the Pirates by the end of the season but, almost halfway through 2008, the 34-37 Pittsburgh Pirates have the most productive outfield in the game.

Part of my daily routine involves checking the league leaders page here and sorting by various stats. In doing so this morning I found that there are currently four players, with enough PA to qualify for the leaderboard, who are yet to hit a home run.

Juan Pierre, Julio Lugo, and Jason Bartlett are not necessarily surprising members of the club but, as the title of this post suggests, the fourth member is Victor Martinez. While not a power threat of the Albert Pujols or Ryan Howard ilk, he has hit 16-25 home runs each of the last four years with a steadily increasing OPS of .851-.879 in that span.

Through 54 games this year he has 0 home runs, a .333 SLG, and a .665 OPS. Granted he is injured right now but Indians fans might want to hope the lower numbers are a result of poor health rather than a shift in performance. It’s still too early and his updated projection may not have changed too drastically however something is definitely up.

His flyball percentage of 38.2% last year currently sits at 29.2%. He also has a BABIP of .314 so it is not as if he has been extremely unlucky. His walk and strikeout rates have curiously decreased as well. Plate discipline stats look very similar across the board with the exception of pitches swung at outside the zone. He’s swinging at 29.83% of those OOZ pitches—up from 23.76% last year—yet making essentially the same 76% of contact.

Victor’s first home run in 2007 came in his fifth game; he homered in his second game in 2006; in both his eighth and ninth games in 2005; and his second game in 2004. The 54 homerless games this year is a little over four times the aggregate total preceding his initial dinger in the last four years. With his injury, V-Mart may miss 6-8 weeks, meaning it could be the middle of August before he hits his first home run… if that.

Marlins second baseman Dan Uggla seems primed to post his best offensive season yet. Through 67 games he is hitting .289/.369/.613—a .982 OPS—with 19 home runs, 23 doubles, and 49 RBI. His slash statistics and OPS would all be career highs should the season, for whatever reason, end today. His SLG has surpassed the .600 mark due to 43 extra base hits out of 73 total. His .324 ISO confirms that, yep, Uggla’s got plenty of power.

Interestingly enough, Uggla has been somewhat inconsistent, month to month, this season. In April (and March 31) he proved detrimental, represented by his -0.216 WPA. Since then, however, he has contributed 2.039 wins to the second place Marlins. Even though his June WPA is a positive 0.504, his general statistics look closer to his April than red-hot May:

April: 115 PA, .255/.330/.471, .801 OPS, 4 HR
May: 113 PA, .347/.425/.827, 1.252 OPS, 12 HR
June: 62 PA, .245/.339/.491, .829 OPS, 3 HR

His SLG in May essentially equaled or surpassed his OPS in both April and the first half of June. While a player with a K% as high as Uggla’s–he’s in Ryan Howard territory right now–may not sustain high and respectable batting averages it does not mean he cannot still prove to be a productive power threat. Last year, he hit 31 HR with a .245 BA and a .286 BABIP; right now he’s close to 2/3 of the way toward matching his home run total and he’s got a .289 BA/.351 BABIP helping to increase his productivity.

If the Marlins want to defy the odds and stay in contention until the end of the season, Dannyboy is going to need to sustain some semblance of consistent productivity since most would attest their young pitching staff is not very likely to hold up from now until September 30th.

In my inaugural post here at Fangraphs, back on April 14th (seems like forever ago), I wrote about Phillies leftfielder Pat Burrell and how he had been extremely consistent in his productivity over the last few years. Despite this, his low batting averages, combined with a disastrous 2003 season have led some fans to value and appreciate his production much less than they should. Two months later, Burrell is still producing at a very high level; in fact, according to some metrics he is producing at a higher level than anyone else in the league.

Based on his win probability statistics, Burrell has a higher WPA (4.48) than anyone in the sport. Additionally, his WPA/LI of 2.94 ranks second and his clutch score of 1.29 deems him the third clutchiest player in the major leagues.

He has 18 home runs this year, putting him in a tie for sixth even though it is the third-highest raw total (ironically, the first and second highest raw total belong to, among others, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard). Last year, 51.4% of his balls in play were of the flyball variety; this year it has dipped to 42.4%. However, his HR/FB has actually risen from 16.2% to 24.0%.

Through 70 games, he has produced a .289/.433/.614 slash line, ultimately resulting in a 1.047 OPS. Compare that to his 2005-2007 numbers:

2005: .389 OBP, .504 SLG, .893 OPS
2006: .388 OBP, .502 SLG, .890 OPS
2007: .400 OBP, .502 SLG, .902 OPS
2008: .433 OBP, .614 SLG, 1.047 OPS

The numbers this year are so high they don’t even align in the above table! Okay, it’s still early and it’s doubtful he has changed his pre-season projection that much but he has definitely showed signs of improvement in recent years. This improvement is not evident anywhere moreso than his BB% and K%:

2004: 14.8 BB%, 29.0 K%
2005: 15.0 BB%, 28.5 K%
2006: 17.5 BB%, 28.4 K%
2007: 19.5 BB%, 25.4 K%
2008: 20.3 BB%, 23.2 K%

This has led to a BB/K increase from 0.51 in 2003 to 1.09 right now. Back on April 14th I called for the Phillies to sign Pat the Bat to a short extension, in large part due to his consistent production, love for the city and willingness to offer a hometown discount sorts; it is not very likely this will happen due to the financial situation/obligations of the team and the fact that Burrell has essentially become an AL-type player. If this is indeed Burrell’s last year with the Phillies, fans really need to appreciate the offense he provides so as to avoid generalizing an entire tenure—a quite productive one, might I add—based on one very poor year and a bad barometer such as batting average.

The biggest move this offseason saw Johan Santana heading to the Mets in exchange for Carlos Gomez and some more prospects. The former two-time (should be three-time) Cy Young Award winner looked to solidify a pitching rotation that seemed more than capable of making fans forget all about last year’s end of season breakdown. Coming off of a relative down year—a down year for him was still better than the up year of most others—there were some who questioned whether or not Johan would be able to regain whatever made him successful pre-2007.

One of the biggest reasons his performance suffered last year came in the form of home run balls. From 2003-2006 his HR/9 ranged from 0.85-0.97; in 2007 it jumped to 1.36 as he allowed 33 dingers. I recently took a look at his Pitch F/X data over the last year and a half to see if he had done anything differently on hits as compared to fouls or swinging strikes. The results also showed that his home run balls—or other hard hit balls—generally came from pitches not just with lesser velocity and/or movement but also very poor location: Most of his home run balls came on pitches right down the middle.

In Johan’s first 60 innings this season he surrendered 11 HR; over his last 34.2 he has surrendered just one.

First 9: 60.0 IP, 52 H, 11 HR, 15 BB, 57 K
Last 5: 34.2 IP, 36 H, 1 HR, 9 BB, 29 K

Of course it is too small of a sample to generate definitive conclusions but we can still investigate and make observations pertaining to whether or not any discrepancies in relevant Pitch F/X data exist in this split. For starters, here are the velocity and movement data for his first nine starts:

FA: 90.54 mph, 5.63 horiz/9.22 vert
SL: 84.18 mph, -0.98 horiz/4.53 vert
CH: 79.69 mph, 5.51 horiz/8.13 vert

And here is the same data in his last five starts:

FA: 92.39 mph, 6.68 horiz/9.64 vert
SL: 84.89 mph, -0.57 horiz/4.64 vert
CH: 79.94 mph, 6.48 horiz/7.54 vert

He has thrown harder and with more movement lately. One of the problems with his hard hit balls, as mentioned above, dealt with the percentage of pitches he threw down the middle. Here are his splits of pitches thrown down the middle:

First 9: 11.5%
Last 5: 11.9%

Though it appears he has thrown slightly more down the middle recently the small sample detracts from any real discrepancy. How about his accuracy? Here is his Ball/Strike/In Play breakdown for the first nine starts, followed by the last five:

K: 46.8%, 45.1%
B: 35.1%, 34.5%
X: 18.1%, 20.4%

Speaking of balls put in play, have any less fallen in for hits lately?

Outs In Play: 67.5%, 64.2%
Hits In Play: 32.5%, 35.8%

Despite sustaining a similar level of accuracy and balls put in play he has actually allowed a slightly higher percentage of those in play to fall in for hits. Looking at his WHIP in these two different spans (1.12 compared to 1.25) it seems that he was hit less in the early going though those hits were of a higher value than recently, despite the increase in hits given up lately. Lastly, has he gotten ahead of hitters any more or less lately? Here is his first-pitch strike split:

First 9: 51.2%
Last 5: 44.8%

All told, not much can truly be garnered in terms of data discrepancies but Johan has gotten ahead of hitters less as of late, has essentially sustained his patterns of accuracy, is throwing virtually the same percentage of pitches down the middle, and is allowing more hits. All of these signs would intuitively point toward similar or worse performance and yet he has thrown better lately. Perhaps his increase in velocity and movement over his last five starts has prevented hitters from getting the fat part of the bat on the ball quite as often. Definitely something to look out for as the season progresses.

Today we’re talking about Marcus Thames, the Tigers outfielder who essentially garners the following scouting report – “Will hit for power but not much else, and will strikeout a lot.”

Through 40 games this year, Thames is hitting .240/.307/.510 (compared to a .241/.306/.494 career line), doing all he can to show that he does not hit much but, when he does, it is generally of the extra-bases variety. Of his 25 hits this year, 12 (48%) are either doubles or home runs. Of all his seasons with at least 100 PA, his XBH percentages have ranged from 43-52%.

Due to this we can assume his ISO, basically the BA of extra base hits, to be higher than his overall BA:

2004: .255 BA, .255 ISO
2005: .196 BA, .215 ISO
2006: .256 BA, .293 ISO
2007: .242 BA, .257 ISO
2008: .240 BA, .269 ISO

His strikeout rates in this same span run from 22.1% to 35.5% so Thames knows how to confirm scouting reports. He hits for power more often than not but does not put the ball in play much due to the high volume of strikeouts. This is not to say he lacks value, though, as he has a positive career WPA and WPA/LI. This year, his WPA slash line (WPA/WPA-LI/Clutch) is currently 0.56/0.07/0.55.

He has contributed a little over half of a win to his team in WPA, but the large dropoff between that and WPA/LI suggests his contributions have more to do with the situations he finds himself in rather than his actual individual performance. He does not qualify for the Fangraphs leaderboards but, if he did, his Clutch score would rank 9th in the AL. I’ve read elsewhere that some fans (of different teams as well) would love for him to replace an unproductive outfielder of theirs, not just because of his “pop” but also his relatively low market value. He might be a decent upgrade over some other current outfielders but he should not be treated as a savior or any sort.

The scouting report on him has not been wrong yet: Thames will strikeout a ton, won’t get on base much, won’t hit for average, but will hit for power. Nothing more, nothing less.

It is not uncommon for a famous or successful closer to either hang around too long or accept a lesser bullpen role as he gets up there in age. Eddie Guardado, however, has gone from starter, to reliable reliever, to famous and successful closer, to a “he’s still pitching??” guy, to a forgotten entity, all the way to a big part of the Texas Rangers’ early relative success. I say relative success due to their current performance vastly exceeding pre-season expectations.

In 24 games this season, Guardado has pitched 20.2 IP, giving up 15 hits, while walking six and striking out ten. Just one of those hits has been a home run. His performance has garnered a 3.05 ERA, 3.51 FIP, and 1.02 WHIP. Of those 24 games, just three have resulted in an overall negative WPA, and one of them was a miniscule -0.007. In fact, when we look at what I am officially calling The WPA Slash (WPA/WPA-LI/Clutch) Guardado has a very productive 1.18/0.58/0.53.

His K/9 of 4.35 is abnormally low when compared to his past rates; in fact, the last time it dipped this low in a full season was 1993, his rookie year, when he actually started 16 of his 19 games. A strikeout rate that low suggests hitters are making plenty of contact off Guardado, meaning the majority of his outs have come from balls put in play. We may expect pitchers with a high percentage of balls in play to in turn have high BABIPs—more balls in play would provide more opportunity for those balls to fall in for hits—however Eddie’s is currently a miniscule .225. While it has been speculated that elite relievers may consistently post lower BABIPs it is not very likely he will sustain one this low while simultaneously sustaining that low of a strikeout rate.

Still, the man with the rubber arm has helped stabilize an otherwise suspect bullpen, in turn helping the Rangers to a 34-34 start.

In looking at the league leaders this morning I found something pretty interesting: Of all players with a WPA of at least 1.84—excluding Matt Holliday who has been injured for a while—Aramis Ramirez is the only one with a home run total under fourteen. While Aramis has hit nine long balls everyone else contributing this much has hit their fair share more. It isn’t as if he ranks towards the bottom of this 1.84 minimum, either, as his 2.29 WPA currently ranks 7th amongst all hitters; and, yes, “their fare share” is in fact a triple-rhyme.

Through 62 games, this slugger is posting a .302/.417/.507 slash line, with 9 HR, 19 2B, and 43 RBI. If his OBP looks oddly high it is likely due to the fact that he has never finished a season higher than .373 in that department and his career mark comes in at .340.

Since he has posted batting averages over .300 in the past it would make sense that he is walking more this year. Confirming this theory is his 14.4% walk rate; one much higher than the 5.3-8.2% range he posted from 2002-2007. In fact, his career high is 9.7%. One of the main reasons his rate of walks has jumped is his drastic drop in swings at pitches out of the zone. Last year, he swung at 30.76% of pitches out of the zone whereas this year, just 23.54%.

He’s striking our more this year as well, with a 16.9 K% compared to 13% a year ago. A leading contributor to his increased strikeouts is a somewhat drastic drop in contact. Last year, he made contact 84.85% of the time; this year, just 78.47% of the time.

His overall production has not suffered much from the drop in contact but he does currently have a .331 BABIP. With regards to his balls in play, he is hitting 3% less grounders, replacing them with line drives. Additionally, though his flyball rate has stayed stagnant, his HR/FB has dropped from 13.3% to 10.8%.

It seems that Ramirez is making less contact but more of the balls he puts in play are falling in for hits. His “lack” of power this season should be attributed more to his decrease in home runs per flyball. If he has actually lost some power than his OPS will not remain .924 all season as it is not very likely to sustain a BB% that much higher than the range he has proven himself capable of; along similar lines, if his past performance is any indication he will still hit anywhere from 26-35 home runs by seasons end. Should these two stats reverse his OPS would remain in the general range. Now, BB% and K% are pretty quick to stabilize but this is a pretty drastic jump.

This just goes to show that a guy can be an extremely effective offensive contributor without hitting dingers each and every night.

Yesterday I wrote about how C.C. Sabathia has not necessarily turned his season around recently but rather had worse numbers than his performance level would indicate; this was primarily due to two poor starts quite early in the season. As I went to post the article I caught a glimpse of the leaderboards on the main page here and spotted Josh Beckett amongst those with the fastest heaters. It soon dawned on me I had absolutely no idea what Beckett was doing this year; how he had performed; how the numbers looked; or even his finger-blister ratio.

Checking out his statistics I soon realized he is also suffering from Unjust Barometer Syndrome; not that a 4.22 ERA is terrible or a 6-4 W-L merits demotion but remove those barometers and Beckett is doing pretty much exactly the same thing as a year ago.

2007: 6.69 IP/G, 3.08 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, .316 BABIP, .250 BAA, 4.85 K/BB
2008: 6.58 IP/G, 3.33 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, .311 BABIP, .249 BAA, 5.53 K/BB

So, literally, if you strip away W-L and ERA, the similarities amongst these statistics should be similar enough to the point that any added commentary would come off as redundant.

His K/9 has gone from 8.70 to 9.46; his BB/9 has dropped from 1.79 to 1.71; and his HR/9 has risen from 0.76 to 1.25. Put together, this has led to the increase in FIP. His rates of balls in play have shifted in quite the odd fashion as well. His career LD/GB/FB is 18.8/44.2/37.0. Last year they came in at 15.8/47.3/36.9; this year they are currently 21.9/37.9/40.2. Beckett is getting significantly less grounders than a year ago, and many more line drives/flyballs. His HR/FB has, in turn, risen from 8.0% to 12.5%.

His LOB has dropped, too, from 75.2% to 70.1%. Since he is allowing essentially the same amount of baserunners (look at his WHIP, BAA, and BABIP posted above) it seems that his higher-than-it-should-be ERA is a direct result of the change in BIP rates, which give more of an opportunity for balls to leave the yard—which they have as evidenced by his HR/9 increase. All told, Beckett’s numbers should not worry Red Sox fans at all; they weren’t too bad even with the barometers but, when we dig deep it becomes clear he is just as good as last year.