Author Archive

Mark Trumbo’s Uncertain Future

The top two vote receivers in the AL Rookie of the Year race are enough to make most saberists tear their hair out. Jeremy Hellickson won the voting despite posting a 4.44 FIP and 4.76 SIERA, and Mark Trumbo and his .291 OBP came in second. Both Hellickson and Trumbo finished heads and tails ahead of the rest of the competition, despite posting Wins Above Replacement totals that ranked them in the middle of the pack and behind players like Eric Hosmer, Michael Pineda, Desmond Jennings, Brett Lawrie, and Ivan Nova.

Obviously, traditional statistics played a huge role in this voting. Hellickson had 13 wins and a 2.95 ERA over 189 innings in the AL East, and Trumbo finished the season with 29 home runs and 87 RBIs. This decision is being greeted with copious amounts of snark, but both Hellickson and Trumbo are exceptionally interesting players in their own right. Instead of being concerned about the snubbed players, I’m more curious about what the future holds for these two players.

How will their careers progress? Is there any hope they can fix the holes in their game? I took a look at some of Jeremy Hellickson’s issues today at DRaysBay, so let’s take a deeper look at Mark Trumbo.

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Nolan Ryan Prefers Mitch Moreland to Albert Pujols?

Early Friday morning, Texas Ranger owner Nolan Ryan turned some heads with a surprising comment about the Rangers’ offseason plans. While the Rangers had made it clear earlier this offseason that they are focusing on acquiring pitching, as one of the large market teams with a weak first baseman, most people expected them to be players in the bidding for Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols.

Well, think again:

“Making a seven-or-eight year deal for Fielder or Pujols is not something our organization is prepared to do,” Ryan said. “I very much expect Mitch Moreland to be our first baseman next year.”

Mitch Moreland may be a solid first baseman and a young player with good upside, but to state the obvious, he’s no Fielder or Pujols. Is Nolan Ryan making a mistake to write off pursuing either of them?

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Jose Reyes: Three Year Deal Candidate?

The Florida Marlins don’t officially get a new name and logo until this Friday, but they are already working overtime on creating a new identity for their franchise. Over the past few weeks, there has been so much excitement swirling around the Marlins: new stadium, new uniforms, new identity, new payroll, new optimism. They are looking like a team reborn. So long with those small market days; the Marlins have been talking like they’re ready to jump to mid-market status, maintaining a payroll around the $80-100 million level.

So when I first heard this morning’s rumor that the Marlins are preparing to offer Jose Reyes a three-year deal, I had to chuckle to myself. There’s the small market Marlins we know and love (/not really). They can talk the talk all they want, but if they’re not going to make serious offers to any of the players they are “interested” in, little has changed in the end. They can create a short-term stir, but words will only take them so far without corresponding actions.

After the giggles went away, though, I began to have a new-found appreciation for the Marlins. This deal isn’t stupid, nor is it likely to be ignored by Reyes. In fact, a three-year deal may be perfect for him.

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Why David Price Might Get Traded Before Shields

It’s no secret that the Tampa Bay Rays need to trade a starting pitcher this offseason. They have seven starting pitchers that could potentially fit in their 2012 rotation: David Price, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, Alex Cobb, and top prospect Matt Moore. Trading one of these players would allow the Rays to fill in other holes on their roster — first base and catcher are concerns — while freeing up room for Matt Moore to slide in. The only question is, who do the Rays trade away?

The Rays could approach things from two directions. They could trade away one of the trio of Niemann, Davis, or Cobb, as those three are most expendable and the one-two-three punch of Price, Shields, and Moore would be quite sexy. Or the Rays could do what most people assume they will do: trade away James Shields. Shields is one of the most valuable trade chips in baseball, so he would return a large package while also freeing up $7 million in payroll space.

All these rumors glance over two pitchers: Jeremy Hellickson and David Price. Helly isn’t likely to be moved due to his high ceiling and team-controlled salary, but David Price presents an interesting conundrum. If the Rays are considering trading Shields, Price should also be on the market…and the Rays might be better off trading him.

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Game 7 Preview: Chris Carpenter vs. Matt Harrison

Chris Carpenter is starting tonight on only three days rest, while Matt Harrison hopes to do better than the shellacking he took in Game Four. Both pitchers will need to change up how they’re attacking hitters if they want to be successful.

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WS Scouting: Colby Lewis vs. Jaime Garcia

How wonderfully awkward.

The last time Colby Lewis and Jaime Garcia faced off, we were treated to one of the best pitcher’s duels of the World Series. Jaime Garcia shut down the Rangers for seven innings while striking out seven hitters, and Colby Lewis very nearly kept pace by lasting 6.2 inning and allowing one run.

How did Lewis and Garcia attack hitters in that start? What can we expect from them tonight? Let’s find out.

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Game Preview: Chris Carpenter vs. C.J. Wilson

Chris Carpenter and C.J. Wilson face off tonight in Game 5 of the World Series, in a rematch of Game 1. How did each pitcher attack the other during their first start? Should they try anything different tonight?

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NLCS Scouting: Greinke vs. Garcia


Why, hello to you too.

Toinght, 8:10pm: Zack Greinke vs. Jaime Garcia.

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NLCS Scouting: Gallardo vs. Carpenter

Just look at that lovely mug.

Tonight’s NCLS matchup, pending the game isn’t rained out: Yovani Gallardo vs. Chris Carpenter.

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ALCS Scouting: Harrison vs. Porcello

The Dude Walks Alone.

And on we move to Game Four of the ALCS: Matt Harrison vs. Rick Porcello.

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