Back and Better Than Ever

On February 6, 1998, the Yankees acquired Chuck Knoblauch from the Twins for a four-player package including prospects Eric Milton and Christian Guzman. Following a relatively poor rookie season in which his OPS+ was just 38, Guzman’s sophomore campaign saw him smack 25 doubles, 20 triples and jump to a 70 OPS+. Next year, in 2001, he performed so well that, despite playing no more than 118 games, he finished 16th in MVP voting. From 2002-2004, his OPS+ regressed to the seemingly expected range of 77-79. The Washington Nationals liked his fielding, approach, and perhaps his still not yet reached potential and inked him to a nice contract prior to the 2005 season.

Guzman promptly pulled a “Beltran,” which is my new term for someone who performs poorly in the first year of a big and/or new contract. During that season, he posted a Bloomquist-like .574 OPS. Christian missed the entire 2006 season, but returned towards the end of last year, playing 46 games and posting an .846 OPS. Though it was less than one third of the season, his rates were better than ever, leading some in the fantasy world to buy low, in the hope that he could parlay that production into a very solid 2008 season.

He has not disappointed this year. In 132 games, his OPS is .787, which is the highest it has even been in a season in which he played 120+ games. His 9 home runs are one off of his career high, and his 34 doubles established a new career high. Additionally, his rate of strikeouts is at a personal low of 10%. Unfortunately, his rate of walks is also a very, very low 4%, the fifth lowest in the senior circuit. Guzman has always built his OBP largely off of his batting average, and this year is no different. With a BABIP of ~.340 and a very low walk percentage a good chance exists that his current numbers are not as much driven by skill as luck.

On the defensive side, he is currently at +15 at shortstop, good for fourth at the position, meaning he is producing nicely on both sides of the ball. His numbers may regress or he may establish himself capable of posting higher BABIPs, but this is the first season he has played over 130 games in which his production has been of this caliber. He may have gotten laughed at as an all-star due to each team needing a representative, but his season has definitely been all-star worthy.