Best 2008 Memory #1: The Ace Arrives

by
November 4, 2008

Wrapping up the review of my favorite moments of 2008, let’s go back to April 24th – the season was only a few weeks old, and we were still trying to figure out what was different than previous years. The Diamondbacks were 16-6 and looking like the best team in baseball while the Orioles were the upstart of the AL East, but obviously, neither of those things would hold true throughout the entire season.

However, there was one guy making a bold statement that 2008 was a turning point in his career, and on April 24th, he continued to shout from the rooftops that we should all notice the difference. Here’s the graph from that game.

Indians-Royals

And here’s the relevant performance from that game:

C Lee: 9 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 9 K, .608 WPA

In his fourth start of the season, Cliff Lee tossed a complete game shutout, dominating the Royals and almost guaranteeing himself the Pitcher Of The Month award for April. After that start, his season line stood as follows:

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31 2/3 IP, 11 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 29 K, 0.28 ERA, 1.61 WPA

Following that game, opposing hitters had a line of .109/.125/.139 against Lee, a ridiculous .264 opponents OPS. He was pounding the strike zone, missing bats, and limiting hard contact – only two of the 11 hits he had given up had gone for extra bases. The 14.5 strikeouts for every walk didn’t hurt either.

This was the kind of stretch that bad pitchers just can’t have. It was a thoroughly dominating series of four starts that should have illustrated to us that Lee simply wasn’t pitching with the same level of talent that we had assumed he had going into the season. He tried to tell us, as firmly as possible, that he’d taken a big step forward. Some of us didn’t listen – here’s what I wrote the day before he made the start against KC:

While the Indians have to be happy with how he’s performed, they’d also be wise to not count on the belief that Lee has taken a real step forward, and instead expect his results to begin to more closely match up with his skillset.

Whoops. As mentioned yesterday, the unlikely things that come to be are often the most fun, and Lee’s maturation into a legitimate ace was both unlikely and a lot of fun to watch. It’s good to be reminded every once in a while that players can make drastic changes in their skills. As the cliche goes, that’s why they play the games.





 

Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

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