Cain Watch #4

This is the fourth installment in a series of articles detailing Matt Cain’s starts. Based on the quality of his games pitched and his decisions or no-decisions earned, Cain’s 2007 was the unluckiest season of at least this decade. Seeing as the Giants have a bleak outlook this trend should continue.

His first three starts followed an extremely simple pattern of: good, bad, good. In pure Cain fashion, he did not receive a decision in either good game but earned the loss in his poorly pitched game. To get caught up on his season visit any of the following links:

• Cain Watch #1
• WPA, 4/1/08
• Cain Watch #2
• WPA, 4/7/08
• Cain Watch #3
• WPA, 4/12/08

He made his fourth start on April 18th, a game in which bad luck never had a chance to interfere due to Cain’s poor performance. His line of 3.2 IP, 8 H, 9 ER, 3 BB, 4 K led to the following lopsided game graph:

For the season, Cain is averaging the following rounded numbers per start: 5 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 5 K. There has been quality as he has had two very good starts; however, his bad starts have had much more of an effect on his season to date. Let’s compare this to last April, when, through four starts, Cain had the following averages: 7.1 IP, 2.8 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 5 K. The only stagnant number is the strikeouts; everything else is worse now than a year ago. So what’s the difference?

He is throwing 57% first-pitch strikes, which is the same as last year and higher than his previous two years, but his overall percentage of strikes has dipped from 63% to 60%. Batters are swinging at 73% of his pitches, down from the 75% last year, however they are making contact 84% of the time; last year the contact rate was at 81%. Putting this together, Cain is throwing a lower percentage of strikes while maintaining his rate of first-pitch strikes, but batters are swinging less and making more contact. This helps to explain why his baserunners allowed have increased.

I’m currently building my own Pitch FX database and will begin to incorporate his data in that area into future looks at his starts. His next start is scheduled for April 23rd, when he will face-off against Greg Maddux for the second time this season, this time at the spacious Petco Park. His flyball and groundball percentages have lowered this year while his line drive percentage has risen. Though he has not given up a ton of home runs in his career, three in his first four starts shows some susceptibility; limiting his walks will help reduce two-run and three-run home runs to those of the solo variety. If he cannot rebound from this start and get onto some type of consistency track then luck will not be a factor in what will amount to a poorly pitched season.