Archive for 2010 Trade Value

2010 Trade Value: #30 – #26

Introduction
#50-#46
#45-#41
#40-#36
#35-#31

#30 – Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas

The Rangers second baseman is not just one of the better all around players at his position, but he’s also one of the best bargains. He’s got three years left on his original long-term contract with the Rangers, and will be paid just $23 million over the remainder of that deal. He’s been a +4 to +5 win player in each of the last two years and is well on his way to matching that total again this year, making him an All-Star being paid like an average player. That’s tremendously valuable, and he’s one of the main reasons why Texas is the team to beat in the AL West.

#29 – David Price, SP, Tampa Bay

The starter in yesterday’s All-Star Game, Price’s improvements over last year are more incremental than his ERA may lead you to believe. His walks are down slightly and his strikeout and groundball rates are up slightly, so he is pitching better, but he’s not yet an ace. He may still become one, and given his stuff, every team in baseball would gladly wait for him to develop into one of the game’s best pitchers, but he’s not there yet. He is, however, a quality starter making very little money and under team control for another five years. He doesn’t have to be an ace yet to be highly coveted.

#28 – Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Cleveland

Over the last three years, Choo has posted wOBAs of .402, .389, and .382. He’s been consistently above average at every facet of the game, and yet he flies under the radar because his teammates haven’t performed up to his level. An thumb injury has derailed his 2010 season, but his long-term future is still very bright. He’d rank higher if he wasn’t headed for arbitration with Scott Boras as his agent, making a long term, team friendly deal less likely. Still, the Indians should be able to get three years of reduced rates out of a high-quality player before Boras takes him elsewhere, and every team in baseball would love to have him.

#27 – Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles

Like Price, he’s not yet what he could be, but he’s shown signs of getting there, and the leap may not be that far away. His stuff is legitimately top shelf, and as a 22-year-old lefty, few arms in the game were anywhere near where he is at this age. The command is still a bit of a concern, however, as is his ability to keep right-handers off base, but even with those issues, he’s a terrific arm. If he gets them straightened out, he’ll be among the game’s best. The Dodgers control his rights for four more years, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they tried to buy out his arbitration years before he started earning any real money.

#26 – Brian McCann, C, Atlanta

Yet another catcher with some power, McCann is probably the most polished of the young slugging backstops. He doesn’t make quite as much contact as he did a few years ago, but the walks are up and the power hasn’t gone anywhere. He is, clearly, one of the elite catchers in baseball, and at 26, he should remain a quality player through the remainder of his ridiculous contract. There are three years remaining on his deal, and he’ll earn just over $27 million during that time, less than half of what he’s actually worth. He’s the foundation of the Braves roster, and quite a piece to build around.


2010 Trade Value: #35 – #31

Introduction
#50-#46
#45-#41
#40-#36

#35 – Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit

The Tigers ace is one of the most dominant power pitchers in the game, but after what looked like a breakout season in 2010, he’s essentially reverted to being what he was before 2009 – a good pitcher who doesn’t get as much out of his stuff as you would expect. Teams would love to have him, certainly, but with an $80 million extension and a heavy workload, he comes with a fair amount of risk. That said, power arms are always highly sought after, and there’d be a line for his services if the Tigers put him on the market.

#34 – Mike Stanton, OF, Florida

Stanton is arguably the strongest player in baseball, and he doesn’t turn 21 until November. His ability to drive a baseball is almost unheard of for a player his age. The power comes with a cost, as his ferocious swing doesn’t make enough contact right now, but its important to remember just how young he is. He’s improved his approach at the plate, and while he’s still too aggressive, it shouldn’t be a permanent thing that can’t be fixed. Once he harnesses his natural abilities, look out. The Marlins would have to be overwhelmed to part with their monster in the making.

#33 – Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore

A year into his career, Wieters isn’t yet what everyone anticipated. Billed as a switch-hitting Joe Mauer with power, he’s shown the skills that got him so much hype in the first place except for the one that was supposed to set him apart – the ability to drive the baseball. It hasn’t helped that he’s been worse this year than he was last season, making it hard to find progress in his development. But we should also keep in mind that, for all the talk of how disappointing he’s been, he’s essentially been a league average catcher as a rookie, and there’s certainly potential for more. It’s far too early to give up on Wieters, though we have to adjust our expectations and perhaps recalibrate the timeline a bit.

#32 – Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas

In a league with few good shortstops, Andrus stands tall despite being just 21 years of age. A defensive specialist, he’s never going to be the best hitter in the league, but he provides enough value on offense that his total package makes him one of the better players at his position. His lack of power and too frequent baserunning gaffes are problematic, but the good outweighs the bad with Andrus. Good young players who provide value now and potential for more later are building blocks of good franchises, and that’s exactly what Andrus is to the Rangers right now.

#31 – Buster Posey, C, San Francisco

The Giants rookie catcher has shown why many thought he should have been given the starting job out of the gates this year. You can bet that he won’t be surrendering the position any time soon, and by limiting the service time he will gain this year, they ensured that he won’t be a free agent until after the 2016 season. San Francisco fans can look forward to six more years of a catcher who offers value both at the plate and behind it.


2010 Trade Value: #40 – #36

Introduction
#50-#46
#45-#41

#40 – Jered Weaver, SP, Anaheim

Weaver’s breakthrough performance has come at a good time for him, as he heads towards his second year of arbitration eligibility. Already a quality pitcher, he’ll now take a career year built around an improved strikeout rate to the panel when asking for a large raise this winter. And, that is really the drawback that keeps him this low on the list – even as well as he’s pitching, he’s only got two years of club control left, and he’ll make decent money in both 2011 and 2012. However, even factoring in arbitration raises, he’s still going to be a bargain, and he’d be one of the most sought after pitchers in the game if the Angels put him on the market.

#39 – James Shields, SP, Tampa Bay

Like Weaver, Shields has seen a big jump in his strikeout rate this year. However, it hasn’t led to better results, as his home run problems and a high BABIP have undermined what should have been a breakout year. Those should even out sooner than later, and Shields abilities as a solid front of the rotation starter will again shine through. And, of course, since he’s a member of the Rays, he has a team friendly contract that includes three team options after 2011, giving Tampa Bay a cheap, quality pitcher with very little risk attached.

#38 – Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas

Similar to Weaver, Hamilton has had a monstrous breakout season, and he’s going to reap the rewards when he heads back to arbitration this winter. Power hitters command a large premium in the market, and so while Hamilton only has two more years of team control, those are hugely valuable years where he’ll be earning far less than what he would as a free agent. Given that he’s also a quality defensive outfielder with physical tools that have suggested this kind of performance was always possible, and Hamilton would be near the top of every GMs shopping list.

#37 – Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado

There is no player in baseball less likely to be traded than Tulowitzki. Not only is he a great player at a premium position signed to a bargain of a long term contract, but that deal also contains a provision that lets him void the rest of the contract if he’s moved to another team. That makes him far more valuable to the Rockies than to potential suitors, who would only get two years of Tulowitzki’s services at arbitration salaries if they acquired him. However, that he won’t be traded doesn’t mean teams wouldn’t love to have him, and those final two years are extremely valuable, given the dearth of good shortstops in baseball and how much he adds both at the plate and on the field.

#36 – Tommy Hanson, SP, Atlanta

Don’t let the ERA fool you – Hanson has gotten even better after a strong rookie season in 2009. His velocity is up, giving him better stuff across the board, and it’s translated into fewer walks and more strikeouts this season. Still just 23, Hanson has the ability to dominate with regularity, and it won’t take long before he’s recognized as one of the National League’s premier arms. With five more years of team control after 2010, the Braves ace is going to be providing tremendous value for Atlanta well into the coming decade.


2010 Trade Value: #45 – 41

Introduction
#50 – #46

#45 – Miguel Montero, C, Arizona

Somewhat overlooked because he began the season on the DL, Montero has been a monster since returning to the line-up, carrying over last year’s success and then some. At 26, he’s a quality defensive catcher who can hit for power from the left side, and he’s become a more disciplined hitter as well. He now heads into the prime of his career as one of the best all around backstops in the game, and only his two remaining years of club control keep him this low on the list. Given the diminished salaries he’ll command and the value he will produce, however, he’s the kind of player that every team would covet.

#44 – Brian Matusz, SP, Baltimore

The best of Baltimore’s young arms, Matusz is one of the game’s best young left-handed starters. Despite pitching in the American League East, he’s more than holding his own with a four pitch repertoire that keeps hitters off balance. He doesn’t light up the radar gun like some other arms on this list, but he has a better idea of how to pitch than most. Don’t judge him on just his major league numbers to date – at 23, there’s far better days ahead. Given that the Orioles have him for five years beyond this one, it would take an overwhelming offer to pry him out of their hands.

#43 – Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, Tampa Bay

Considering that he was never going to repeat his 2009 season, this has been about as good a follow-up as you could hope for. The surprising power hasn’t carried over, but everything else is still well above average, and the total package is a high quality player that is as versatile as any in the game. The Rays took a risk in locking him up before he had a chance to repeat his monster 2009 season, but it looks like a sound investment, as they have him signed through 2013 at bargain salaries and then hold team options for both 2014 and 2015.

#42 – Geovany Soto, C, Chicago

Like Montero, Soto is a young, offensive backstop with the ability to stay behind the plate. He’s rebounded from last year’s disappointing sophomore campaign, offering his usual blend of patience and power while inexplicably hitting eighth for the Cubs. Given his ability to drive the ball, he could hit in the middle of the order for most teams, and when you have a 27-year-old cacher who can provide that kind of punch, you have a highly valuable piece. The Cubs will control his rights for three more years, and it shouldn’t take them that long to figure out that he’s better than Koyie Hill.

#41 – Yovani Gallardo, SP, Milwaukee

The Brewers ace is a bit of a challenge to rank. On the one hand, he’s one of the better arms in baseball at age 24 and already signed to a long term, below market contract. On the other hand, knee surgery has limited his career to just over 400 innings pitched, and now he’s back on the DL with an oblique injury. With a longer track record of success, teams would be more willing to project him as a future ace, but he’s yet to crack 200 innings in a season and looks unlikely to do so again this year. Gallardo has the upside to rank much higher, but the injuries and backloaded contract would make teams think twice before giving up the farm to get him from Milwaukee.


2010 Trade Value: #50 -#46

And we’re off. Introduction here if you missed it.

#50 – Domonic Brown, OF, Philadelphia

The guy that most people consider the best prospect left in the minors, Brown is also the guy that was famously off-limits in the Roy Halladay trade. When your organization won’t trade you, straight up, for the best pitcher in baseball (who is signing a three year, below market deal as part of the trade, no less), you’ve got quite a bit of value. There’s a pretty good chance that Brown could be a solid major league player tomorrow, and his physical size and abilities give him serious upside. Young power hitters who can also handle themselves on defense are pretty rare and highly coveted.

#49 – Phil Hughes, SP, New York

The former top prospect started to live up to his billing last year and has carried it over to 2010, establishing himself as a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm at age 24. He has good command of quality stuff, and while he’s a pretty extreme flyball guy, he makes it work by racking up a lot of strikeouts. That he’s been able to succeed in a park that’s about as poor a fit for his skillset as possible (all 11 of his home runs allowed this year have come at Yankee Stadium) is highly impressive. Considering that he’s under team control through 2013 at arbitration prices, he’s quite the bargain.

#48 – Ricky Romero, SP, Toronto

Romero has stumbled of late, but his emergence as one of the better young left-handed pitchers in the game couldn’t have come at a better time for the Jays. While he’ll never entirely replace Halladay, he’s doing a pretty decent impression for a 25-year-old in his second year in the big leagues. A groundball lefty with a plus change-up, Romero is able to miss enough bats to compensate for the fact that he doesn’t have great command. He’s not an ace, but considering he’ll make something close to the league minimum again next year before becoming arbitration eligible, he’s providing a lot of return on the Blue Jays investment.

#47 – Martin Prado, 2B, Atlanta

The ultimate performance over tools guy in the big leagues right now, Prado’s success is a testament to how pedigree doesn’t mean everything. This is a guy who hit 15 home runs in 2,119 minor league plate appearances, and was simply not considered much of a prospect when he got to the big leagues. However, for the last three years, he’s been one of the best second baseman in baseball, adding some power to his already good contact rates and turning himself into a legitimate All-Star this season. He’s headed for his prime years as an already good player, and the Braves have him under control for three more seasons. He might be the most unexpected guy on this list, but he’s earned his spot here.

#46 – Mat Latos, SP, San Diego

Latos wasn’t great last year as a rookie, but his second stint through the National League has been a lot more successful. The fastball command that was his hallmark in the minors has returned, and the slider is good enough to give him a strikeout pitch on most days. As a result, he’s having a terrific season as a 22-year-old, and while he’s benefiting from Petco and the National League, he fares well even after you adjust for those external effects. With five more years of team control, the Padres have to be thrilled with how quickly Latos has developed and just how much value they’ll be able to get from him before he heads to free agency.


2010 Trade Value: Introduction

This post has been updated to once again acknowledge Bill Simmons as the originator for this series, which I adapted for MLB beginning in 2005. Credit has been given to him in every year since, but was unfortunately left out of this introduction at the time it was published. All credit for the idea goes to Bill.

They say time flies when you’re having fun, so the last year must have been a blast, because I can’t believe it’s been 12 months since I was getting lampooned for leaving Pablo Sandoval off the 2009 Trade Value series. So far, I’m okay with that decision, but it is time for us to re-evaluate and do it all over again. And so, over the next week, we’ll take a look at which 50 players in baseball have the most value to franchises besides their own. The criteria, as I stated last year, is as follows:

Essentially, the idea is to take all the information that goes into encapsulating a player’s value to an organization – his present skills, his future potential, how long he’s under club control, the expected cost of paying him over that time, and the risks involved with projecting his future performances – and figure out which players currently have the most trade value in baseball. The #1 guy wouldn’t get traded, straight up, for any other player in baseball. The #10 guy is someone who his organization would call untouchable, but if one of the nine guys above him was made available, they’d rethink that stance. You get the idea.

You can find the entire list from last summer here, and the trade value category has all of the individual posts, where we summarize the thoughts on five players at a time. We’ll follow the same format this year, running the series all week and wrapping it up next Monday with the top five.

Again, I want to emphasize that this is a post about trade value, not a ranking of player performance. How well they do on the field is obviously a significant factor, but teams don’t simply make deals based on how good a guy is right now. There are numerous factors, of which contract status is perhaps the most important. There’s a reason Cliff Lee has been traded three times in the last year, and it’s not because teams don’t want him. So, just because a player is not on this list does not mean I don’t think highly of his abilities (or that I hate the team he plays for). In fact, there are some tremendous players who didn’t make the cut. Here’s a few of the guys who just didn’t make it and a quick explanation as to why.

Carlos Gonzalez, CF, Colorado – There aren’t many guys who can play a legit center field and hit the baseball a long way, but Gonzalez brings both skills to the table. Unfortunately, the rest of the game isn’t quite as refined, and his approach at the plate is a problem. His aggressiveness can and will be used against him, and when pitchers adjust, he’ll need to as well.

Jaime Garcia, SP, St. Louis – The young LHP is having a tremendous rookie year for the Cardinals, but after posting a 70 percent ground ball rate in April, he’s become far more ordinary since. Since he doesn’t rack up that many strikeouts, he needs to either improve his command or lead the league in GB% in order to sustain his present results, and we haven’t seen that he can do either just yet. If he has another few months like his first one of the year, he’ll be on this list next year, but we need to see more.

Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, San Diego – There’s nothing wrong with Gonzalez’s skillset, but he’s a case where contracts come into play. He’s a bargain for 2011 at just $4.5 million in salary, but then he’s a free agent and he’s looking for a huge, huge paycheck. The Padres could get a lot for one year of Gonzalez, but I don’t think any of the teams who have guys on this list would swap them for the time that is left on his contract.

Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota – Another great player done in by his contract. I think he’ll end up being worth the big deal he signed with the Twins, but the fact is that there are only a couple of teams in baseball that can absorb the risk that comes along with a contract like that, and those teams wouldn’t create enough demand to drive up the price in talent to give the Twins a premium return for their star. He’s a tremendously valuable player, but he’s an expensive one, and it’s hard to see any team giving up a high quality, cheap young player while also taking on that kind of financial commitment.

Brett Anderson, SP, Oakland – As Bryan Smith will tell you, I am an Anderson fanboy. He is pretty much everything I love in a pitcher, as a lefty with good command of terrific stuff who gets both groundballs and strikeouts. The only he thing he doesn’t have is health. He’s on the DL for the second time this year with arm problems, and that is a huge red flag for any young pitcher. A healthy Anderson ranks very highly on this list, but unfortunately, a healthy Anderson doesn’t exist right now.

Who did make the cut? Come back at 5 pm for the guys who make up the #50 to #46 spots, and then we’ll do two posts a day for the rest of the week to get us up to #6. You can then have all weekend to speculate on the top 5, which will be revealed next Monday.