Among Wednesday’s moves, the Seattle Mariners announced the signing of Carlos Guillen to a minor league contract. After a very successful career with the Tigers, Guillen returns to the team he broke into the majors with all the way back in 1998.
Unfortunately, it just doesn’t appear Guillen has anything left in the tank.
Well, it looks like we finally have an aggressive suitor for Edwin Jackson. Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Nationals are trying to trade John Lannan – who just lost his arbitration case and will earn $5 million in 2012 – in order to clear salary to make a run at signing Jackson.
If the Nationals can pull this off, it’d be a pretty neat trick. When you look at Lannan and Jackson side by side, this would be a pretty massive improvement for the team. Over the last three seasons, Jackson has posted an ERA- of 93, supported by quality peripherals, while Lannan has posted an ERA- of 101, a good bit better than his FIP/xFIP would suggest is sustainable. Jackson’s also thrown an additional 100 innings, so he’s provided better performance in a larger sample.
Even if you think Lannan possesses an ability to regularly beat his FIP, Jackson is roughly a +1 win upgrade. If you think that Lannan is about to run out of pixie dust and his run prevention is due for a regression, the upgrade is more like +2 wins. Given that the Nationals are on the contender-or-not bubble, those wins could have a lot of value to the team, and swapping out Lannan for Jackson would be a no-brainer.
The tough part might be finding someone who wants to take Lannan off their hands at this point in the off-season. Most teams are shopping in the bargain bin now, and there aren’t many clubs left with much in the way of budget room. They probably could have moved him a few months ago, but salary dumps in February aren’t easy. It’s an idea worth trying, but they might have to eat a little bit of money in order to convince someone to take him.
On Tuesday, Jon Heyman reported that Davey Johnson really wants Bryce Harper to begin the season as his everyday right fielder. While we don’t have a direct quote from Johnson confirming the story, given the fact that the alternative is some combination of Roger Bernadina, Mike Cameron, and Xavier Paul, it’s understandable that Johnson would prefer the uber-talented Harper in his quest to win games.
Managers always want to put the best players on the field that they can. Their job is to maximize performance in the short term, and given the choice between a raw potential superstar or a mediocre role player with limited upside, they’re going to take the kid nearly every time. However, this is also why managers aren’t allowed to make these calls, and Bryce Harper’s opening day assignment will be decided by the team’s front office.
For the Nationals, this should be a pretty easy call. The 19-year-old Harper looks to be a special talent, but even the very best 19-year-olds are generally not great Major League players. In the history of the sport, 16 guys have gotten 100 or more plate appearances in the Majors at age 19 or younger and been above average Major League hitters – the list includes Ty Cobb (134 wRC+), Mickey Mantle (114 wRC+), and Ken Griffey Jr (106 wRC+). If we assume that Harper is that kind of talent, maybe we could pencil him in for a 110 wRC+ or so this season. If he’s more like previous elite teenage prospects B.J. Upton (93 wRC+), Robin Yount (90 wRC+), or Mike Trout (88 wRC+), he’ll likely face his share of struggles and contribute minimal value to the team.
The Nationals simply should not trade team control of Harper’s age-25 season in exchange for getting a few hundred additional at-bats from him this year. The marginal value of having him on the roster from day one is massively outweighed by keeping him from hitting free agency after the 2017 season. Johnson may want Harper, but he shouldn’t get him until June at the earliest.
According to Alex Speier, the Red Sox are unlikely to add another starting pitcher before the season begins. The Red Sox have been linked to both Edwin Jackson and Roy Oswalt in recent weeks, but neither player currently sees Boston as their landing spot. Jackson allegedly has better offers elsewhere, and it’s been widely speculated that Oswalt wants to pitch close to home next season.
Outside of Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, the Red Sox’s last two spots in the rotation are up for grabs. With Alfredo Aceves, Andrew Miller, Daniel Bard, Vicente Padilla, Carlos Silva and Aaron Cook all vying for those slots, the Red Sox could benefit from adding an effective veteran like Jackson or Oswalt. While back injuries limited his effectiveness this past season, Oswalt still managed to put up a 2.5 WAR in just 139 innings pitched. He’s much less of a risk on a one year deal, but that’s somewhat moot if he doesn’t want to play in Boston. Jackson would also be a good fit and won’t require a lengthy financial commitment, but the Red Sox reportedly only offered $5 or $6 million on a one year deal.
The Red Sox could choose to increase their other to both players, but the team is dangerously close to surpassing the luxury tax. While the Marco Scutaro trade was supposed to clear up salary for another starting pitcher, that money might be reallocated if the Red Sox have to go to arbitration with David Ortiz, who filed for $16.5 million. The team countered with a $12.65 million contract — a small increase from Ortiz’s $12.5 salary in 2011. Unless the Red Sox are confident they can beat Ortiz in a hearing, it seems likely that he’ll receive a raise. As with most cases, the team might be better off avoiding a hearing altogether and settling with Ortiz for something around the midpoint.
While the Red Sox could certainly use another starter, their desire to stay under the luxury tax may prevent them from significantly raising their current offers to Jackson or Oswalt. Unless Jackson or Oswalt are willing to lower their asking prices, it sounds like the Red Sox might just enter spring training with their current collection of starting pitchers.
GM Alex Anthopoulos and the Blue Jays have made their deal with former Reds, Brewers, and Rangers closer Francisco Cordero — to a one-year deal worth $4.5 million — official, reports Jon Heyman of CBS.
A successful high-leverage reliever at one point, who struck out more than 25% of batters faced every season between 2003 and 2008, Cordero’s velocity — and with it, his performance — has declined in recent seasons. Last season, with his fastball velocity having dropped to 93.0 mph per PITCHf/x — from 95.0 mph in 2009, for example — Cordero posted his worst strikeout rate (15.3%) since 2000 and second-worst xFIP- (108). His fastball usage from last season — at a career low 37.4%, per PITCHf/x — reflects Cordero’s changed approach.
However, the deal is notable less for the specifics regarding Cordero (about whom Jim Breen wrote last week) and more for what it represents in terms of the Blue Jays’ capacity for rebuilding a bullpen that was entirely gutted by the end of last season after a trade that saw Octavio Dotel, Jason Frasor, and Marc Rzepczynski go to St. Louis and Chicago variously for center fielder Colby Rasmus.
This offseason, Toronto has traded for Sergio Santos (due just $1 million), reacquired Frasor ($3.75 million), signed Darren Oliver ($4.5 million), and now Cordero. That’s almost an entire bullpen for just under $14 million — i.e. only slightly more than what Jonathan Papelbon will be making per annum for the next four years. As Alex Lewin demonstrated in a piece from late November, the risk associated with that sort of long-term reliever contract generally doesn’t merit the potential rewards. The Blue Jays are clearly proceeding with that notion in mind.
Arizona Diamondbacks catcher Miguel Montero narrowly avoided his arbitration hearing today, agreeing with the club to a one-year, $5.9 million deal for 2012 — i.e. Montero’s last year of team-control.
Per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic, both the Diamondbacks and Montero are interested in discussing a long-term deal to keep the catcher in Phoenix for the foreseeable future.
Projecting a market-value contract for the Montero depends on what you think about his true-talent level. He finished fourth per WAR among catchers last season (counting Mike Napoli as a catcher) — and is sixth among catchers between 2009 and ’11. Still, a lot of that value comes from Montero’s strong 2011.
Jeff Blair of the Globe and Mail had an interesting note in his column today, noting that there’s speculation in Toronto that the Mariners offered Michael Pineda to the Blue Jays in exchange for Brett Lawrie. They passed, and as we all know, the Mariners shipped Pineda to New York for Jesus Montero instead.
So, this brings up an interesting question – who is the more valuable player going forward, Lawrie or Montero? A year ago, Marc Hulet ranked Montero as the fifth best prospect in the game, while Lawrie came in at #35. Baseball America concurred, putting Montero at #3 and Lawrie at #40. Lawrie had a fantastic 2011 season, capped off with a monstrous performance in the Majors, but Montero hit well in his late season call-up as well. His minor league performance wasn’t as impressive, but you have to adjust for the difference in league/park and note that catching generally diminishes offensive numbers, so the gap might not be as large as it might seem on the surface.
Of course, Lawrie looks like he could be a quality defensive third baseman, while Montero offers little in the way of defensive value. Scouts seem to be a bit more sold on Montero’s bat, though, and prior year minor league performances all favor Montero. They’re essentially the same age, and both will be counted on as building blocks of their respective team’s offenses for years to come.
So, that brings up the question – who would you rather have going forward, Lawrie or Montero?
Poll after the jump.
This post is quite a bit shorter than our normal fare here. We’re going to experiment with some quicker news analysis pieces for things that are still churning through the rumor mill. Don’t worry, these pieces won’t take the place of the more in-depth articles you’ve come to expect from the site.
A few weeks ago, I talked about how Roy Oswalt could end up as the steal of the off-season, and noted that he could instantly improve the rotation of nearly every team in baseball.
In fact, there might only be one team where Oswalt wouldn’t represent an upgrade over someone currently penciled into their starting five – that team is the one that Oswalt is meeting with today, and is apparently one of the two teams he wants to play for in 2012.
No team in baseball needs a starting pitcher less than the Texas Rangers. Their starting pitchers combined for +19.8 WAR last year, third most in the Majors, and while they lost C.J. Wilson, they spent roughly $110 million to bring in Yu Darvish and have decided to bring Neftali Feliz to camp as a starting pitcher. Toss in Derek Holland, Colby Lewis, and Matt Harrison, and their rotation doesn’t even have room for Alexi Ogando, who himself probably belongs in a Major League rotation next year.
Oswalt’s a good bet to be a solid starter next year, but the Rangers already have six solid starters at the big league level. If, as rumored, they’d have to either move Harrison to the bullpen or make him available in trade, they should simply say thanks but no thanks. Oswalt makes sense for St. Louis, who have replaceable pitchers at the back-end of their rotation. Texas, though, simply doesn’t need him.
