Every year the dreaded sophomore curse rears its ugly head. Not even star shorstop Troy Tulowitzki of the Colorado Rockies was immune from its influence. His sophomore season was the only time in his five-year career that he dipped below 5.6 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) – and it was a big dip to 0.9 WAR.

With the 2012 Major League Baseball season about to begin there is understandably a lot of excitement over some of the 2011 rookies who appear poised for a true breakout year. Let’s try and sift through some of the names and see who might be in for a big year and who might be in for a big… disappointment.

Henderson Alvarez, RHP, Toronto: I have to admit that I thought Toronto was crazy for calling up Alvarez when they did in 2011 but he did not implode as expected. The 21-year-old hurler made a successful jump to the Majors with just 88.0 innings of experience above A-ball thanks to a fastball that can tickle the upper 90s while inducing a plethora of ground balls. Alvarez survived his first tour of duty in The Show with basically a two-pitch mix (fastball/changeup) and he’s working hard to improve his slider. If he can get the third pitch working, while also improve upon his command within the strike zone, Alvarez could see a big jump in his strikeout rate.

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As the 2012 regular season approaches you’re going to read a lot about the potential top rookie contributors. Many of those lists, if not all, will contain the likes of Mike Trout (Angels), Matt Moore (Tampa Bay), and Bryce Harper (Washington) – and understandably so. However, as with every other year, teams will receive key contributions from other prospect graduates, many of whom will fly under the radar.

Let’s have a look a few names to key an eye on:

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Every year it happens in spring training: A previously unknown (by the general fan population and mainstream media) minor league player posts dazzling statistics in spring training and everyone starts singing the praises of said player.

This year it happens to be catcher Yan Gomes, 24, in the Toronto Blue Jays’ spring camp. After Tuesday’s game he was hitting .474 with a slugging percentage of .842 in 19 at-bats. A very impressive performance but this is also a very small-sample size. Check out the Twitter love for Gomes as fans interact with Toronto sports radio personality Mike Wilner.

You’re kidding, right? @CharliePride78: @julianmktr The Jays would be STUPID if they don’t at least put Gomes on roster, as bench plyr!!!

Sample size, please. @CharliePride78: @Wilnerness590 @julianmktr The guy can play 3-4 different positions, he seems 2 be a gr8 hitter!!!

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From Joe Nathan to Carlos Marmol to Sergio Santos, Major League Baseball pitching staffs are littered with conversion projects: players that took unusual routes to their big league careers by switching roles early in their careers from position players to pitchers.

The minor leagues will feature a number of interesting stories this season as a strong group of newly-minted pitchers attempt to realize their dreams of playing in The Show.

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Prospect followers, please stop panicking over the demise of Texas Rangers pitching prospect Martin Perez. He will be fine. My first in person look at Perez came last week facing off against arguably the best pitcher on the planet in Dodgers Clayton Kershaw. Yes, he needs more seasoning at the Minor League level, but he should. As he approaches legal age, Perez is still far ahead of the prospect curve and has both the stuff and time to turn his three pitch mix into on-field results.

Video after the jump
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To run a successful minor league system you have to draft well every June and spend money wisely on the international market. But you also have to have some luck by mining other systems for undervalued talent. Below you’ll find six prospects with diminished prospect value that may be poised to finally see the light click on in 2012. All the players were, at one time, highly regarded. Only one of them appeared on my 2012 Top 15 prospects lists – coming in at No. 15 on the Boston Red Sox ranking.

Mike Kvasnicka, C, Houston: Kvasnicka saw his draft stock take a huge leap in 2010 when he showed solid skills behind the dish while playing at the University of Minnesota. Hoping to get Kvasnicka to the Majors sooner rather than later the Astros organization made the decision to move him to a less demanding position. Unfortunately, his bat was not as potent as expected and did not profile well at the hot corner. The new front office regime recently made the decision to relocate Kvasnicka back behind the dish. He may return to low-A ball in 2012 to get re-acclimated with catching without putting too much pressure on his offensive game. He tired in the second half of 2011 so he’ll have to get stronger to withstand a full year of squatting behind the plate. A switch-hitting catcher carries a ton of potential value.

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With a single crack of the bat on a picturesque day in Phoenix, the legend of Oakland Athletics Yoenis Cespedes was born. From infield/outfield, to pre-game batting practice, to his 2-2 effort with a home run and a walk, Cespedes’ United States debut unfolded like a play where each act heightened the storyline to a memorable crescendo.

Video after the jump

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About eight years ago Major League baseball saw the influx of a host of high quality third baseman. The arrival started with the debut of players like Kevin Youkilis and David Wright in 2004 and continued with Ryan Zimmerman in 2005. The string of hot corner studs slowed after this stretch and was capped by the arrival of Evan Longoria in 2008.

Baseball is a cyclical game and the development of young third baseman has stagnated over the last several years. That trend may be shifting as the minor leagues play host to several players that have impact potential. The Nationals’ Anthony Rendon and the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado are two of the top hot corner prospects in the game, and they are joined by players like Miguel Sano, Nick Castellanos and Mike Olt, among others. These players appear poised to ascend upon the Major Leagues and become the next wave of great third baseman.

Focusing on Rendon and Arenado offers an opportunity to compare two extremely talented players. Heading into the 2011 college season Rendon was considered by scouts to be the top position player in the draft class and was arguably the top player available overall. After injuring his ankle the prior year, Rendon battled shoulder issues last spring, an injury that ultimately kept him from playing the field for much of the season. Concerns over his injury history and the overwhelming emergence of pitchers like Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer, combined with his Scott Boras affiliation sent him sliding in the draft. The Nationals popped him with the sixth overall pick and signed him to a Major League deal worth north of $7 million. Read the rest of this entry »

All 30 Top 15 prospects lists are done and I’m wrapping up my off-season prospect coverage with the Top 100 Prospects for 2012, as well as a chat. I’ll let the list speak for itself. I’ll be back at noon eastern to discuss anything and everything prospect related.

Be sure to keep visiting FanGraphs as we approach Opening Day 2012… We’re going to be launching an exciting new prospect feature for 2012 that I think you’re really going to enjoy.

100. Garin Cecchini, 3B, Boston
99. Dillon Howard, RHP, Cleveland
98. Mason Williams, OF, New York AL
97. Alex Meyer, RHP, Washington
96. Sonny Gray, RHP, Oakland
95. Chris Carter, 1B, Oakland
94. Christian Bethancourt, C, Atlanta
93. Andrelton Simmons, SS, Atlanta
92. Tyler Pastornicky, SS, Atlanta
91. Jean Segura, 2B/SS, Los Angeles AL
90. Matt Davidson, 3B/1B, Arizona
89. Jesse Biddle, LHP, Philadelphia
88. Wily Peralta, RHP, Milwaukee
87. Brett Jackson, OF, Chicago NL
86. Sean Gilmartin, LHP, Atlanta
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I’ve spent the past five months writing the Top 15 prospects lists for all 30 clubs in Major League Baseball, which resulted in more than 450 minor league prospect reports. With those (finally) put to bed, I present you with a ranking on the minor league systems from worst to first. Rankings are based on both impact talent and overall depth within the systems.

The top scouts for each organization are chosen based on their impact on each organization’s system for 2012 and does not take into consideration players they’ve signed in the past that are no longer in the minors.

30. Chicago White Sox
Top 2011 Draft Pick: Keenyn Walker, OF
Top 2012 Prospect: Addison Reed, RHP
Org Strengths: Raw athletes
Org Weaknesses: Pitching depth, high-ceiling hitters
Top Scout: George Kachigian, who was responsible for signing Addison Reed, as well as Trayce Thompson.

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