The Colorado Rockies
2010 MLB Record: 83-79 (third place, NL West)
Minor League Power Ranking: 14th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

1. Tyler Matzek, LHP
Acquired: 2009 1st round (California HS)
Pro Experience: 1 season
2010 MiLB Level: A-ball
Opening Day Age: 20
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.5

Notes: Matzek had a respectable debut in 2010 at low-A ball. The former No. 1 draft pick posted a 4.32 FIP in 89.1 innings. His strikeout rate sat at 8.87 K/9 but he struggled with his control (6.25 BB/9). Matzek also needs to find a way to keep the ball on the ground on a more consistent basis (39% ground-ball rate), especially if he’s going to succeed with approximately half his starts in Colorado. He has a solid repertoire, including an 88-92 mph fastball that touches the mid-90s, a curveball, slider, and changeup. Matzek has a three-quarter arm slot with a follow through that doesn’t leave him in a great fielding position. There is some deception in his delivery. If he can smooth out his throwing motion, Matzek’s control could improve.

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1. Aaron Hicks, CF
Acquired: 2008 1st Round (Southern California HS)
2010 Level: Low A
Opening Day Age: 21.6

Notes: Prospect aficionados have a tendency to get a little antsy with highly-touted prospects. When a player doesn’t immediately light the world on fire he can be unfairly criticized, and, to some extent, I think Hicks has been subjected to this. When he was drafted, he was billed as a 5-tool player with solid power and speed highlighting his game, but the returns in those two areas have been just fair so far. In just over 1,000 career plate appearances, Hicks has only hit 16 home runs and has stolen only 42 bases. Those modest returns on top of the Twins’ decision to have him repeat the Midwest league in 2010 have some jumping off the bandwagon, but a look past those counting stats reveals a lot for Twins fans to be excited about.

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The Seattle Mariners
2010 MLB Record: 61-101 (4th, AL West)
Minor League Power Ranking: 16th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

1. Michael Pineda, RHP
Acquired: 2005 non-drafted free agent (Dominican Republic)
Pro Experience: 5 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: AA/AAA
Opening Day Age: 22
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.0

Notes: Pineda entered the 2010 season a little bit under the radar, thanks to an injury-filled ’09 season. But he quickly vaulted to the top of the club’s prospect list with a good showing at both double-A and triple-A. In double-A, Pineda managed a 2.16 FIP, while also showing the ability to miss bats (9.12 K/9). His control was outstanding, with a walk rate of 1.99 BB/9. His FIP jumped to 3.60 at triple-A but his strikeout rate jumped to 10.97 K/9 and he maintained his control. He did see his HR/9 rate jump from 0.12 to 1.30, but his ground-ball rates suggest there isn’t too much reason to be concerned; he should produce average ground-ball rates in the Majors and his home park will help keep fly balls in play. His repertoire includes a mid-90s fastball, slider, and changeup. Pineda’s delivery includes a long stride, a three-quarter arm slot and some effort. If he can continue to sharpen his changeup, he could develop into a No. 2 starter.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers
2010 MLB Record: 80-82 (4th in the NL West)
Minor League Power Ranking: 17th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

1. Dee Gordon, SS
Acquired: Drafted 4th Round, 2008
2010 Level: AA (Southern League)
Opening Day Age: 22.11

Notes: Despite being the son of former big reliever Tom ‘Flash’ Gordon, Dee didn’t pick up baseball until his senior year of high school. What he lacks in polish, he makes up for in athleticism. His speed rates as an 80 on the scouting scale, allowing him to steal 126 bases over the past two season at a 73 percent clip. At the plate, Gordon is a contact-oriented hitter with little power. He posted a meager .077 ISO last year, and after seeing him take batting practice at the Futures Game, I don’t expect him to ever post an ISO much higher than .100 in the big leagues. His swing plane is flat, and his bat speed isn’t good enough to overcome the physical limitations of his 150-pound frame. That being said, he does a good job of barreling the ball, and that skill, coupled with his outstanding speed and ability to make contact, should allow him to hit for average. In the field, Gordon has all the tools to be a plus defender, but he makes too many errors on routine plays. It’s not altogether uncommon for young shortstops to pile up big error totals in the minor leagues and still go on to become solid defenders in the big leagues, and judging by his actions, I think with more experience he’ll make the necessary improvements to stay at short. At his peak, I see Gordon as close to a .300 hitter, with 40 steals, and average defense at short.

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The Washington Nationals
2010 MLB Record: 69-93 (5th in the NL East)
Minor League Power Ranking: 18th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

1. Bryce Harper C/OF
Acquired: 2010 1st round (Las Vegas JC)
Pro Experience: None
2010 MiLB Level: Arizona Fall League
Opening Day Age: 18
Estimated Peak WAR: 7.0

Notes: In his pro debut in the Arizona Fall League, Harper hit .343/.410/.629 in nine games (35 at-bats). He showed some patience with four walks but also whiffed 11 times. It’s an encouraging start to his pro career. In the AFL, Harper was getting out on his front foot and that was throwing off his timing and balance. He’s definitely going to have to learn to stay back on off-speed pitches as he moves up the ladder. Against lesser pitching he can simply rely on his raw power and bat speed to compensate. If I’m going to nitpick, I might level out his shoulders a bit to help his swing plane. Drafted as a high school-aged catcher, his bat projects to play at any position on the diamond and he’s expected to play the outfield in pro ball. Harper is expected to move through the minors quickly, but that could be about three years as top prep hitters usually need about four full seasons in the minors. He’s spent a year in junior college but Harper is the same age as a high school player.

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The Chicago Cubs
2010 MLB Record: 75-87 (5th in the NL Central)
Minor League Power Ranking: 19th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

*This list originally included pitcher Chris Archer, shortstop Hak-Ju Lee, and outfielder Brandon Guyer but all three players were sent to Tampa Bay in the Matt Garza deal.

1. Brett Jackson, OF
Acquired: 2009 1st round (U of California)
Pro Experience: 2 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A+/AA
Opening Day Age: 22
Estimated Peak WAR: 4.5

Notes: Jackson, 22, has the potential to be an All-Star outfielder and a 20-20 threat. He split the year between high-A and double-A and hit .297/.395/.493 in 491 at-bats. His success in pro ball has been aided by high BABIPs, never posting a rate below .352. The former No. 1 draft pick used his plus bat speed to post ISO rates of .202 in high-A and .189 in double-A. Jackson strikes out a ton (27.6 K% at the senior level) but gets on base at a solid clip (11.2 BB%). He definitely had a pull-oriented approach when I saw him. Jackson showed a nice, quiet stance – there is not much going on, which means there is less of a chance for something to go wrong and cause him to fall into a prolonged slump based on mechanical issues. Lowering his hands a bit might help eliminate some of the loop in his swing. Defensively, he can handle center field but may end up in left field. He’s still improving his reads and routes, and his arm strength is just average.

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As noted towards the end of last week over at NotGraphs, I’ve recently acquired the Bill James Player Ratings Books from 1993 to 1995.

One thing about the Player Raters that, so far as I know, is distinct from James’ earlier Baseball Books or Baseball Abstracts, is the introduction of grades for prospects. This is notable for at least four reasons, as follow:

1. Prospect rating, generally speaking, is exciting.

2. Prospect rating is more exciting when Bill James (plus Rob Neyer and John Sickels, his assistants over that span) is the one doing it.

3. The prospect rankings in these Player Raters very likely represent the earliest attempt by a sabermetrically oriented writer to rank and discuss prospects.

4. Almost all of the prospects discussed in these books are done with their careers, thus giving us a chance to see what a Grade A or B or whatever prospect looks like over the course of his career.

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The San Francisco Giants
2010 MLB Record: 92-70 (1st in the NL West)
Minor League Power Ranking: 20th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

1. Brandon Belt, 1B
Acquired: 2009 5th round (University of Texas)
Pro Experience: 1 season
2010 MiLB Level: A+/AA/AAA
Opening Day Age: 22
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.5

Notes: Belt was a steal as a fifth round pick out of the University of Texas in 2009. He didn’t make his pro debut until 2010 but the left-handed hitter absolutely exploded – despite the lack of experience – and rose to triple-A. Belt posted a .485 wOBA in high-A, .447 in double-A, and .419 in triple-A. At the senior level, he produced a triple-slash line of .229/.393/.563 in 61 plate appearances. He also showed a solid eye at the plate with excellent walk rates and reasonable strikeout rates for a power hitter. Along with ISO rates of .244/.286/.333, Belt showed his value as an all-around player by stealing 22 bases on the season; he succeeded on the base paths due to smart base running as opposed to blazing speed. Belt’s success in pro ball can be linked to mechanical adjustments at the plate. He has a wide, well-balanced stance at the plate. He occasionally gets out on his front foot a bit, which robs him of some power. His swing also gets loopy at times but, when he’s on, Belt shows good bat speed and the barrel carries well through the strike zone.

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The Oakland Athletics
2010 MLB Record: 81-81 (2nd in the AL West)
Minor League Power Ranking: 21st (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

1. Grant Green, SS
Acquired: 2009 1st round (University of Southern California)
Pro Experience: 2 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A+
Opening Day Age: 23
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.0

Notes: Green, 23, made his full-season debut in 2010 after signing with the club in ’09 as its first round draft pick. Playing in a strong offensive league in ’10 at high-A, the shortstop hit .318/.363/.520 in 548 at-bats. He showed good power with an ISO rate of .203. Green’s approach at the plate is still a little raw, as witnessed by his walk rate of 6.3% and strikeout rate of 21.4%. He has all the tools, however, to be an offensive-minded shortstop at the MLB level. He shows a nice, level swing and utilizes the whole field. He clears his hips well and has strong wrists, which helps him hit with authority, although he has more line-drive power right now than home-run strength. Defensively, he has quick feet and hands, but he needs better positioning with his feet. His range is average and his arm is fringe-average for the position. Green may have to move to second base.

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According to reports, the Kansas City Royals organization has traded Zack Greinke and Yuniesky Betancourt to the Milwaukee Brewers for four young players: outfielder Lorenzo Cain, and shortstop Alcides Escobar, as well as pitchers Jake Odorizzi, and potentially Jeremy Jeffress – although his inclusion in the deal is still up in the air. My first reaction to the package coming to Kansas City was: Really, that’s it? Clearly the asking price dropped a lot in the past 48 hours.

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