The St. Louis Cardinals
2010 MLB Record: 86-76 (2nd in the NL Central)
Minor League Power Ranking: 22rd (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

1. Shelby Miller, RHP
Acquired: 2009 1st round (Texas HS)
Pro Experience: 2 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A
Opening Day Age: 20
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.5

Notes: Miller, 20, has a good pitcher’s frame and he does a nice job of staying tall in his delivery. He throws with a low three-quarter arm angle. Miller occasionally has his front foot land a little too far toward third base, which causes him to throw across his body as well as cause command issues. A good athlete, he needs to work on consistency with his delivery. He held his own in low-A ball in 2010 as a teenager by displaying good control (2.85 BB/9). Miller posted a 2.42 FIP while missing a lot of bats (12.08 K/9). He produced an average number of grounders (46%). His repertoire includes a fastball that touches 96-97 mph, a good curveball, and a changeup. Miller certainly has the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the organization and he’ll open 2011 in high-A. The right-hander should spend the majority of the season there but he’s talented enough – despite his age – to see a late-season promotion to double-A. He should be ready for regular MLB action in 2013.

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The Baltimore Orioles
2010 MLB Record: 66-96 (5th in the AL East)
Minor League Power Ranking: 23rd (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

1. Zach Britton, LHP
Acquired: 2006 3rd round (Texas HS)
Pro Experience: 5 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: AA/AAA
Opening Day Age: 23
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.0

Notes: Britton, 23, was one of my favorite under-the-radar pitching prospects in 2008 and 2009 but he’s no longer a secret after another successful season in 2010. The lefty produces outstanding ground-ball numbers (64%) while also showing OK control and acceptable strikeout numbers (7.60 K/9 in AAA). The far-from-elite K-rate is what keeps the southpaw from being considered a future ace. Britton, Chris Tillman, and Brian Matusz could form a very solid nucleus at the top of the rotation for years to come. Britton throws with a short-arm motion and I’m not love with his arm action, which appears to put a bit of stress on his elbow. There also isn’t much deception in his delivery and he also slows his arm down when he throws his breaking ball. His overall repertoire includes a sinking fastball that touches 94 mph, a slider, and a changeup. The off-speed pitches is still a work in progress. Britton should be ready for The Show by mid-2011.

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The Milwaukee Brewers
2010 MLB Record: 77-84 (3rd in the NL Central)
Minor League Power Ranking: 24th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

1. Jake Odorizzi, RHP
Acquired: 2008 supplemental 1st round (Illinois HS)
Pro Experience: 3 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A
Opening Day Age: 21
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.0

Notes: Odorizzi was my favorite prep arm in the 2008 draft and I was more than a little surprised to see the Brewers get him with the 32nd overall selection. He suddenly became the club’s top prospect after second baseman Brett Lawrie was dealt to the Jays. Odorizzi broke out in 2010 after being handled cautiously for the first two years of his pro career. The right-hander spent the entire ’10 season in low-A ball and produced a 2.93 FIP in 120.2 innings. Odorizzi saw his strikeout rate jump to 10.07 K/9, while his control was respectable with him posting a rate of 2.98 BB/9. He also had an average ground-ball rate of 46%. Odorizzi has a four-pitch mix with an 88-93 mph fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup. He may be better off scrapping the slider and focusing on three pitches. The right-hander has room to fill out and could add a few more ticks to his fastball. Odorizzi will likely continue to move slowly and he should spend most of the year in high-A ball. He has the ceiling of a No. 2 or 3 starter.

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The San Diego Padres organization has agreed to trade star first baseman Adrian Gonzalez to the Boston Red Sox for three Top 10 prospects. The talented youngsters headed to San Diego are right-handed pitcher Casey Kelly, first baseman Anthony Rizzo, and outfielder Reymond Fuentes. It’s a quality haul for the veteran first baseman, but I wouldn’t quite call it an elite package.

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The Florida Marlins
2010 MLB Record: 80-82 (3rd in the NL East)
Minor League Power Ranking: 25th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

1. Matt Dominguez, 3B
Acquired: 2007 1st round (California HS)
Pro Experience: 4 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: AA
Opening Day Age: 21
Estimated Peak WAR: 4.5

Notes: Dominguez has long been known for being a defensive player first and an offensive player second. The former No. 1 draft pick did nothing to take away from that notion in 2010, as he posted a .337 wOBA in double-A at the age of 20. His ISO rate of .158, accumulated between 2009-2010, goes to show that he currently projects to have average-at-best power for the hot corner. With that said, his 34 doubles in 2010 suggest he could develop more over-the-fence power down the line. Dominguez is not gifted with plus bat speed. He takes only a slight stride when batting and he shows a minor upper cut in his swing at times. Dominguez has a good arm at third base and solid hands, but some have questioned his range. He could appear in the Majors in 2011, but look for him to be ready for full-time duty in 2012.

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It’s no secret that success for an organization like the Florida Marlins must begin with a healthy scouting department. This has long been a team that has either used prospects (or homegrown regulars) to acquire greater talent, and filled their 25-man roster with Marlins draftees. Even with the team’s busy November — acquiring Omar Infante, John Buck, Javier Vazquez — this payroll will always be one that demands a foundation of youthful stars.

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The San Diego Padres
2010 MLB Record: 90-72 (2nd in the NL West)
Minor League Power Ranking: 26th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

1. Simon Castro, RHP
Acquired: 2006 non-drafted free agent (Dominican Republic)
Pro Experience: 4 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: AA/AAA
Opening Day Age: 23
Estimated Peak WAR: 4.5

Notes: Castro reached triple-A in 2010 at the age of 22. The hard-throwing right-hander pitched the majority of the season in double-A and posted a 3.32 FIP in 129.2 innings of work. He showed respectable control with a walk rate of 2.50 BB/9, but his strikeout rate dropped from 10.07 K/9 at high-A in ’09 to 7.43 K/9. As he continues to face more advanced hitters, Castro will need to improve his slider and changeup to go along with his 90-95 mph fastball. The young pitcher has nice balance on the mound and stays tall through his delivery. He does land on a stiff leg at times and there is a little effort in his delivery, which puts some strain on his shoulder. He throws with a low-three-quarter arm angle and does not have a ton of deception. Despite the mildly alarming drop in strikeouts, Castro is by far the team’s best prospect, but he likely still needs another half year of seasoning in the minors.

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The two homegrown members of this year’s stable San Diego Padres rotation, Mat Latos and Wade LeBlanc, are a perfect illustration for the organization’s domestic scouting strategy. No team seems so dogmatic in the belief system that a team should build its farm system by spending big on boom-or-bust high school talent, and create organizational depth with slot-signing collegiate talent. In the 2006 draft, LeBlanc was chosen 272 places ahead of Latos in the draft. But when push came to shove, Latos’ bonus of $1.25 million more than doubled LeBlanc’s (590K), and in this instance, the Padres hit with both. Latos is the star for which they invested, and LeBlanc the dependable asset they believed he was. When scouting strategies reap their rewards, they do so in a big way.

LeBlanc and Latos also make for happier examples than using, say, the team’s first pick in 2004. Or 2007. Or 2008. You see how dangerous a trap negativity can be? Ultimately, this is a farm system that is decidedly mediocre, certainly salvaged by the last regime’s (impressive) insistence on establishing the Padres as players in the international scouting market. While Latos and LeBlanc might leave San Diego to say its method is tried and true, it also feels a bit aged and stubborn. Modernization is necessary, while proper development of the team’s in-house talent could leave this new front office with plenty of talent.

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The New York Mets
2010 MLB Record: 79-83 (4th in the NL East)
Minor League Power Ranking: 27th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

1. Wilmer Flores, SS
Acquired: 2007 non-drafted free agent (Venezuela)
Pro Experience: 3 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A/A+
Opening Day Age: 19
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.5

Notes: Flores didn’t have a huge season at the plate but he spent much of the season playing A-ball at the age of 18. The right-handed hitter batted .278/.342/.433 in low-A and then moved up to high-A where he produced a line of .300/.324/.415. Flores was overly aggressive in high-A and saw his walk rate plummet from 7.5% at the lower level to 3.1%. His 36 doubles on the year hint at the raw power he possesses. His strikeout rates have been impressive (14.4% in high-A) given his age; hopefully he can maintain them as his power numbers spike. Flores hits with an open stance and is susceptible to balls on the outer half of the plate. He has a habit of pulling his head off of breaking balls. He also has a lot of movement in the hands, which he clearly uses as a timing mechanism. Flores is at his best when he maintains a level, line-drive stroke and avoids the upper cut. He has enough bat speed that he doesn’t need to generate loft by dropping the head of the bat. Look for his power numbers to spike when he buys into the approach. Flores doesn’t play with as much energy as you might expect from a top-of-the-line prospect and his lack of range will eventually move him off shortstop. He has good arm strength and could end up at third base or an outfield corner.

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One inevitability of a newer, smarter front office is that the June Amateur Draft becomes a more valued commodity. The assumption bodes well for the Mets, who recently have either given draft picks away or spent them on relievers. With Sandy Alderson and company moving in to run things, I have a feeling this team will retain its draft picks, look to add more where they can, and draft a good blend of upside, cost and ready-made talent. And if Alderson can merely maintain the dedication to scouting and development internationally of his predecessor, things will improve here.

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