Prior to the 2010 season, the St. Louis Cardinals minor league system was ranked by a few publications “in the know” (including myself) as one of the five worst in all of Major League Baseball. The ranking was based mainly on the poor depth in the system. However, now in early May, the club could argue that it currently has the top rookie pitcher and second-best rookie hitter (Atlanta’s Jason Heyward being No. 1) in the National League. Dave Cameron recently took a look at left-handed starter Jaime Garcia so I’ll focus on third baseman David Freese, whom we ranked as the club’s eighth best prospect entering 2010.

Freese is no ordinary rookie. While most rookies tend to reach the Majors between the ages of 22 and 24, he’s already 27 years old. He’s not even really a late bloomer. The San Diego Padres organization nabbed Freese in the ninth round of the 2006 draft out of the University of South Alabama as a fifth-year senior. With a previous tour through a community college, the infielder was already 23 years old when he entered pro ball.

Here is a pre-draft scouting report on Freese from the draft experts at Baseball America:

…He has big-time raw power and mashes balls to all fields when he gets his arms extended. Freese’s approach is good; his defense at third base is not. He’ll probably have to play first base, though some scouts suggest he could catch. There, however, his arm strength and throwing motion could be problematic.

Freese did continue to hit well in the minors, as per his scouting report. His career minor-league line is .308/.384/.531 in just under 400 games. He even slugged 26 homers in ’08 at triple-A, and posted back-to-back 90 RBI seasons in ’07 and ’08. The third baseman looked poised to secure the third base job in St. Louis at the start of ’09 but his hopes were dashed by an injury.

So far this season, Freese is hitting .360/.404/.547 in 97 at-bats. He’s tied for fourth in the Majors with Andre Ethier of the Dodgers with a .360 average; he’s second in rookies to Austin Jackson’s .376 average. Like the Tigers prospect, though, Freese has been aided by a very healthy BABIP at .438 (a trend that began in the minors). Unlike Jackson, the Cardinals prospect has a more reasonable strikeout rate at 23.3%, although still high.

Freese has also displayed signs of being a run producer with 19 RBI in 24 games. His power output has been modest to this point with three homers and a .186 ISO, but he does have seven doubles. Much of his power is to the opposite field, with a .429 ISO rate on balls to right field, compared to .130 to center and .186 to left. Freese is absolutely killing southpaws early on with a .500 average (11-for-22). He’s also enjoying his time at home with a wOBA of .568, compared to .271 on the road.

Defensively, Freese is still a work in progress. He’s an average defender at best, based on his historical scouting reports, and the early report from UZR is a respectable rating of 1.2 – although it’s too early to read too much into it.

If we look at Freese’s ZiPS updated projection, it has him producing a line of .294/.351/.460 with a highly-respectable .357 wOBA. By comparison, the 2009 NL Rookie of the Year, Chris Coghlan, had a .372 wOBA. It’s still quite early in the season but I’m willing to admit I may have been a little too cautious in my ranking of Freese. It will be interesting to see how his numbers look at the end of May.

Whether it’s the lack of tradeable picks, the problems signing draftees, or the wait to see draftees help at the Major League level, the baseball Amateur Draft is the least accessible draft of any major sport. And every year, as more fans become interested in the draft, I always get questions from confused people that don’t understand why their team — that doesn’t have a viable third baseman in the organization — doesn’t take Joe Schmo, a solid third base prospect from College X.

In a sport that admirably sticks to Best Player Available more than any other, it is worth wondering what the draft might look like if a farm system’s strengths and weaknesses were considered. Because it’s a nice way to review these farms, and review potential top 10 prospects, I’ve looked into this alternate reality today. This is no projection of what will happen in one month, but a thought exercise on what could if teams took a more macro view in their draft rooms.

1. Washington Nationals. The most important need for the Nationals is identity and profit margin, and the only prospect in this draft that can effect either is Bryce Harper. Yes, they have Derek Norris behind the plate, but it’s not as if Harper’s value is tied to his position. It’s tied to his bat, and frankly, it’s also tied to his hype. Signing the two most hyped prospects of the decade will create real interest in this franchise. The pick: Bryce Harper.

2. Pittsburgh Pirates. A 6.79 team ERA doesn’t even tell the full story on how bad the Pirates need pitching in their system. There are some arms that have varying degrees of supporters (Morris, Lincoln, Owens, Locke) and some solid arms in Extended Spring Training, but not nearly enough to match an offense that should have Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutchen blossoming simultaneously. They need a pitcher that will be ready then. The pick: Deck McGuire.

3. Baltimore Orioles. While the offensive core of Matt Wieters, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis is more accomplished, I believe the young pitching that Baltimore has dedicated to developing is their real strength. You have Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta, followed by lots of depth from Zach Britton to Matt Hobgood. So I think this team could use some athleticism up the middle to pair with that offensive core, someone to pair with last year’s pick of Mychael Givens. The pick: Manny Machado.

4. Kansas City Royals. The Royals would be tempted to take Jameson Taillon, but for the purpose of this article, I think Mike Montgomery, Tim Melville, Tyler Sample and others meets KC’s quota for projectable prep pitchers. The breakouts of Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas are encouraging, but search far and wide, and you don’t see outfielders anywhere in this system. This draft doesn’t line up perfectly for that type of player, but in this exercise, we have to fill the need. The pick: Michael Choice.

5. Cleveland Indians. The deepest farm system in baseball, so the most difficult to choose a weakness. But while I’ve praised the depth of pitchers in the organization, a lot of them are guys that might end up as relievers: Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone, Alex White and others. You can never have too much pitching, and given the collection they have, someone set on the starter-or-bust path would fit well with the other arms. The pick: Karsten Whitson.

6. Arizona Diamondbacks. A lot of Arizona’s youth is in the Major Leagues, leaving the minor leagues lacking much talent. The team ERA nearing 6, and the lack of any discernible healthy pitching prospect means the Snakes should certainly head in that direction. They won’t have this Major League offensive core forever, so they might also prefer a college arm that will reach the Majors in time for Justin Upton’s peak. The pick: Drew Pomeranz.

7. New York Mets. This has been praised as a pitching-heavy draft, and that’s good, because this is another team that needs more pitching. Jeurys Familia and Kyle Allen are struggling, Jennry Mejia is in the bullpen, and a guy like Brad Holt has not broke out like expected. This team also should show its fan base that they will spend in the draft, something they have not done in a few years. Landing the top high school arm fits both “needs”. The pick: Jameson Taillon.

8. Houston Astros. One of the Major League’s weakest farm systems, although if you want to get positive, Jordan Lyles and Tanner Bushue are a pair of recently drafted pitchers that turned in very good Aprils. You can’t say the same for any offensive prospect south of Koby Clemens, and even the highly touted players they do have (Jason Castro, Jio Mier) aren’t players that figure to fit in the middle of the order. They need power. The pick: Zack Cox.

9. San Diego Padres. I would guess that few organizations had a more discouraging April on the farm than the Padres. Yes, Drew Cumberland is finally healthy, and Simon Castro is capable of handling Double-A, but everywhere else you look, prospects are slumping. The outfield and third base are the two things that San Diego doesn’t need, but I still think building an offense should be the first priority. The pick: Christian Colon.

10. Oakland Athletics. Let’s run down the list. The catcher position has Suzuki in the Majors, Stassi’s investment in the minors. First base is a logjam led by Chris Carter. Second base should be held down by Jemile Weeks, although the team still has hopes for Eric Sogard. Shortstop is a mix between Cliff Pennington and Grant Green. Third base is a weakness, but Zack Cox is gone. There is a lot of depth in the outfield. So, given the adage that you can never have too much pitching, and because this draft supports that ideology, we’re going there. The pick: Chris Sale.

The Royals and Diamondbacks recently – and quietly – pulled off a rare prospect-for-prospect trade. The American League club sent reliever Carlos Rosa to Arizona for infielder Reynaldo Navarro. Rosa is the bigger name of the two based on his previous big league experience but Navarro is a former third round draft pick (2007) out of Puerto Rico.

The Diamondbacks club is desperate for relief pitching… any pitching, really. The club currently has the second worst ERA in the Majors (although its xFIP sits 18th, suggesting the club needs to address some other needs, as well). The right-hander was never able to crack the big league rotation with Kansas City and appeared in just nine MLB games over the past two seasons.

Rosa, 25, has shown good minor league numbers, including solid control (although it slipped in ’09 at triple-A); he was permanently moved to the bullpen in ’09. He has good stuff and his fastball sits around 94 mph. Unfortunately, he’s never been able to consistently command his secondary pitches (slider, change-up). He’s always done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park and has a career ground-ball rate around 50%. In ’09 at triple-A, Rosa posted a 3.44 FIP and a strikeout rate of 10.14 K/9 in 71.0 innings. So far in 2010, the right-hander has struggled with his control in just 12.1 innings.

In return, Arizona surrenders a talented – but very raw – middle infield prospect. Navarro, 20, was ranked by FanGraphs.com as the D-Backs’ seventh-best prospect entering 2010. Last year in low-A, Navarro hit .262/.308/.339 in 493 at-bats. He has some speed (12 steals in 16 tries) but his aggressive approach (5.5 BB%) makes him a poor top-of-the-order hitter. Currently in high-A ball, the shortstop is hitting .241/.307/.329 in 79 at-bats. Navarro made some defensive strides at shortstop in ’09 and has good range, so there is hope he’ll be able to remain at the position despite fringe arm strength.

Arizona certainly wins the trade if we grade it today; the club addresses a clear need and gets a solid arm for a raw player. However, Kansas City receives an interesting prospect to dream on. The club did a nice job of turning an excess arm into a potential steal. If the Royals’ player development staff can get Navarro to adjust his game plan to take advantage of his true strengths, the organization could end up as the winner of this deal. But it’s a big if.

Lars Anderson, Mike Montgomery, and Drew Storen share few things in common, aside from the fact that they’re both professional ball players. However, all three players can be lumped together as top prospects that recently received minor league promotions.

Anderson was moved from double-A to triple-A by the Boston Red Sox. The big first baseman was repeating double-A for the second straight season after an uninspired .233/.338/.345 in 447 at-bats. His ISO dropped from .211 in ’08 to .112 in ’09 and he lost more than .100 points on his wOBA.

Despite the struggles, I felt pretty good about predicting a rebound for the 22-year-old prospect while writing the 2010 Top 10 list for the Red Sox. I ranked him fifth overall and said: “There were a few good signs, including the fact that he maintained a solid walk rate (12.3%) and his strikeout rate did not skyrocket (25.5%, similar to his career norm – which admittedly is high to begin with)… Anderson will be just 22 for much of 2010, so he has time to turn things around.”

Other prospect rankers felt he was still a Top 10 prospect, as well. Baseball America and Keith Law both ranked Anderson at No. 4, while John Sickels had him at No. 8, and Baseball Prospectus had him ninth overall.

Anderson was hitting .355/.408/.677 at the time of his promotion. With the positive impact that the Mets organization has received from the promotion of Ike Davis, perhaps the Red Sox organization is hoping for a similar spark at some point this season. That seems a little too aggressive but desperate times call for desperate measures.

Montgomery proved to the Kansas City Royals that he was far too good for A-ball so he was bumped up to double-A. The southpaw is just 20 years old so it’s mildly surprising to see the organization be so quick to promote him. With that said, the club is lacking pitching depth at the upper levels of the system. As well, Montgomery had success in nine high-A starts in ’09 after beginning the season in low-A.

During the off-season, I ranked Montgomery as the No. 1 prospect in the Royals’ system. I was joined by three of the other four rankers. Law chose to rank him third behind Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas.

At the high-A level in ’10, Montgomery allowed just 14 hits and four walks in 24.2 innings of work. He posted an 11.88 K/9 rate and a 55% ground-ball rate. Despite his early success, the Royals would have to be pretty desperate to bring Montgomery up this season. He’s still young and has a limited number of pro innings under his belt. And the club is not in a position to win this season.

An ’09 first round draft pick by the Washington Nationals, Storen was a slight-overdraft in part because he was considered near-MLB ready. It took less than a month of the 2010 season for him to move within a step of the Majors with a switch from double-A to triple-A.

All four of the prospect rankers had Storen as the third best prospect in the system behind Stephen Strasburg and Derek Norris. In the 2010 Second Opinion, I ranked Storen at No. 4 on the Top 10 list, after giving a little extra love to current MLB starting shortstop Ian Desmond.

Storen projects to be the club’s closer of the future, although a rejuvenated Matt Capps will give the prospect plenty of time to ease into the Majors. Last season, Storen pitched at three levels and compiled a 1.95 ERA with 21 hits allowed in 37.0 innings of work. The 22-year-old former Stanford pitcher had an ERA of 0.96 in seven games and had allowed just five hits in 9.1 innings. He walked just one batter and struck out 11.

It’s great to see the prospect values increasing for all three players. However, don’t get too excited and expect them to make significant MLB impacts in 2010.

With the big league club sporting a 4-17 record in Baltimore, it’s safe to say it’s been a rough season so far for the Orioles. The encouraging news is that the club has actually received some respectable starting pitching with the exception of recently demoted Brad Bergesen.

Along with four solid performers at the MLB level, there is another pitcher in triple-A currently banging on the big-league door, yet again. Chris Tillman, once the club’s top pitching prospect, made 12 starts in the Majors last season at the age of 21. The pitching depth in the organization allowed the club to send him back to the minors at the start of the 2010 season to put in some extra skill development time.

His numbers last year were OK given his age, but he clearly had some work to do. Tillman posted a 6.10 FIP and his HR/9 rate was 2.08. A lot of his pitches were put into the air (37.0 GB%) and he didn’t strike out that many batters (5.40 K/9). A look to his pitch-type values suggests that he was suffering from poor fastball command, a must-have to succeed in the Majors.

Tillman’s 2010 season did not start all that well. Perhaps he was disappointed with his demotion. Or perhaps he was just a little rusty. He accumulated just 9.2 innings over his first three starts and allowed nine runs. In his third start, he hit bottom and lasted just one inning with four hits and four runs allowed. It was no doubt embarrassing for the youngster.

Something clicked after that. In his fourth start, Tillman went eight innings and allowed just three runs on seven hits and no walks. He stuck out five and posted his best GB/FB ratio of the season.

The right-hander, now 22, clearly saved his best performance for his fifth game. Last night against the Gwinnett Braves, Tillman threw a nine-inning no-hitter. He walked just one batter (former Tigers prospect Brent Clevlen) and struck out six. The fly-ball pitcher also relied heavily on the ground-ball with 13 worm-burning outs compared to six in the air.

While perusing the post-game information, I came upon this comment from Tillman, which was recorded by MiLB.com reporter Daren Smith: “I was pitching around my fastball. I had my curveball when I needed it. I was able to throw my changeup and my cutter. My catcher [Adam Donachie] did a great job calling pitches and I had three or four great plays behind me.”

Tillman had been working on a cutter this spring. It sounds like he’s having enough success with it now to utilize it during a no-hit bid, which is encouraging news. The development of a cutter has had a profound effect on the careers of quite a few pitchers in the Majors, such as Roy Halladay. The work on the cutter could also explain his early-season struggles, although I cannot confirm that.

Tillman was a top prospect even before adding the fourth pitch to his repertoire; it’s encouraging to see a talented player – who has experienced more successes than failures in his career – realize the importance of always trying to get better.

The lessons from week three on the farm.

Carlos Peguero and Koby Clemens can hit for power outside of California.

In 2008, Peguero and Clemens were both sent to High-A for the first time as 21 year olds. After a modest cumulative line of .283/.345/.451, the Mariners and Astros respectively opted to return them to High-A in 2009. This time both in the California League, they were among the hitter haven league’s most dangerous players, Peguero hitting .271/.335/.560 while Clemens posted a career-best .345/.419/.636 batting line. However, neither was given much publicity this winter as an offensive prospect, as the assumption was that both had seen inflation effects due to playing in High Desert and Lancaster.

In the last week, Peguero accumulated a hit in every game (dropping his average to .378, somehow), and hit six home runs to join Mike Stanton atop the minor league home run leaderboard (with 9 total). Clemens wasn’t as prolific, but with two more homers, he’s leading the Texas League with seven jacks through 19 games. Now scouts and prospect analysts alike are being forced to retrace our steps, and make sure the initial opinions of these players were fair. I think it was with Clemens, certainly, who has now been relegated to first base and strikes out too often. His patience was always slightly above-average, but not enough to handle the offense needed to stay at first base. I’m now guessing he eventually spends time in the Major Leagues, a testament to a lot of improvement in 2-3 years, but I’d be surprised if he spent much time starting.

Peguero, on the other hand, might be something. Strikeouts have always been his problem, but the whiffs are down significantly this season. The power has always been there, but there is nothing untapped about it anymore. A team like the Mariners, low on power and in a field beneficial to left-handed pull hitters, might be able to get something out of a guy like this.

Ethan Hollingsworth has a good FIP.

Zero home runs. One walk, two HBP’s. Twenty-five strikeouts. 26 innings in four starts. All told, we’re talking about a FIP of 1.62 for the Colorado Rockies fourth-round pick in the 2008 Amateur Draft. In the California League.

Last season had to be considered a disappointment for the 22-year-old Western Michigan product, as he posted a 4.37 ERA between Low- and High-A. But taken in context, and things look a little better. First, half his season was in Asheville, the South Atlantic League’s most hitter-friendly environment. His ERA splits in that league were telling: 6.07 ERA at home, 2.06 on the road. Then he went to the California League, an environment death on pitchers and fielders alike. While plagued by 77 hits allowed in 59.3 innings there, the .392 BABIP certainly seemed a little high.

Back in Modesto to start this season, Hollingsworth isn’t giving his fielders much to work with. He’s a pretty traditional low-90s, 4-pitch guy, but there’s something to be said for those pitchers that have the confidence to attack the zone with their stuff. I always go back to a guy like Joe Mays when thinking about pitchers like Hollingsworth, and if Mays can have middling success in the Majors, I don’t see why Hollingsworth can’t, too.

The Salem Red Sox have a good middle of the order.

Three players on the High-A Salem Red Sox roster are responsible for 13 of the team’s 19 home runs. These three are batting .365 and slugging .630, while the rest of the team is hitting .247 with a .365 SLG. There is just no denying that the 14-6 Red Sox owe their winning record to the performances of Ryan Lavarnway, Will Middlebrooks and Oscar Tejeda.

Lavarnway is the elder statesman of the group, as he will turn 23 in August. A sixth-round pick in 2008 out of Yale, Lavarnway was a guy that hit .467/.531/.873 as a sophomore, and followed it up with an injury-shortened .398/.541/.824 junior season. While his catching abilities are debateable, as he’s fairly green at the position, and is still only splitting time there this season. But the bat will play, as he’s now at .360/.407/.667. I’d like to see Boston commit to turning him into a catcher while challenging his bat, so we can really see what’s here.

Middlebrooks was a guy the Red Sox bought away from a two-sport scholarship at Texas A&M on the signing deadline in 2007, and has looked very raw ever since. But things seem to be coming together a bit for Middlebrooks this year, and he’s now showing some consistent patience and gap power. He’s hitting .353/.421/.559 in the earlygoing, and continuing to show off a rocket arm at the hot corner.

Finally, there is Tejeda, the youngest of the sluggers at just 20 years old. You can sort of tell as much, what with his 17-1 K/BB ratio through 78 plate appearances. But he’s also growing up quickly, as his five home runs are already the highest he’s hit in a single-season. Anytime a 20-year-old middle infield is hitting .382/.385/.658 in High-A, it’s big time news. While I’m not as quick to anoint him as a breakout prospect as I am Lavarnway and Middlebrooks, he might just be the one with the biggest potential of all.

If you’ve been following the club over the past week, you’re clearly not from Toronto (ba-dum-bum)… Seriously, though, you knew something was going to break in Toronto. And it was clearly going to occur in the bullpen.

Bullpen Bleeding
April 26: 6 IP – 10 H – 6 R
April 25: 2 IP – 5 H – 4 R
April 24: 1 IP – 5 H – 7 R

Seventeen runs in eight innings will definitely get someone’s attention – and not for a pat on the head. Toronto designated Merkin Valdez for assignment, and optioned Jeremy Accardo to triple-A. The funny thing is that neither of those pitchers really deserved their fate.

Valdez has been used just twice this season, and while he has hardly been effective, who can blame him? There is no way a pitcher can have sharp command when he’s pitched so irregularly (He didn’t pitch for the first time until April 14, and then sat again until the 25th). Accardo also got behind the 8-ball by not getting into a game until April 12. He was then used three times in five days and then sat for another eight days without pitching.

Shawn Camp and Kevin Gregg have been the Jays’ best pitchers. Camp, though was touched up last night. Scott Downs has been ineffective over his last five appearances, with six runs allowed over 3.2 innings. Jason Frasor, who opened the year as the club’s closer, has allowed six runs over his last four appearances (3.1 innings). Casey Janssen has pitched twice in three days and has given up six runs in 1.2 innings.

To take the place of Accardo and Valdez, Toronto has promoted and minor league veteran Rommie Lewis, a long-time Baltimore farmhand in his second season with the Jays organization, and Josh Roenicke, who was obtained last season in the Scott Rolen trade. Roenicke, 27, has yet to allow an earned run this season in triple-A. He’s allowed just four hits and one walk in 8.2 innings of work. The fly-ball pitcher has struck out eight batters. Command issues have haunted him in his brief MLB career.

Lewis, also 27, is receiving his first taste of MLB action and was Las Vegas’ second best reliever, so it’s nice to see the club rewarding dedication and success. The left-hander allowed 10 hits (.400 BABIP) in 7.2 innings but struck out seven batters and has a 75.1% ground-ball rate. He has a low-90s fastball and slider.

There are a few other names currently in double-A that might surface in the Toronto bullpen later this season if they keep throwing well – especially if Scott Downs and Jason Frasor can improve their values enough to bring in a B-level prospect each at the trade deadline.

Trystan Magnuson is 6’8” and has a history of producing good ground-ball numbers. He’s also improved his control with a switch from starting to relieving. He’s struck out 11 batters, with just one walk, in 10.2 innings. Magnuson will turn 25 shortly and was drafted as a fifth-year college senior in 2007. Tim Collins, 20 years old and a full foot shorter than his teammate, will look to challenge Reds reliever Danny Herrera for smallest player in the Majors. The Jays lefty has a low-90s fastball and has yet to allow a run this season. He’s given up just two hits and struck out 14 in 8.0 innings.

Danny Farquhar, 23, comes at hitters with multiple arm angles and can throw in the low-to-mid 90s from a sidearm slot. Control has been an issue for him in the past. He currently has seven Ks in 7.0 innings of work. Some other double-A names to keep in mind for future bullpen help include Luis Perez, Randy Boone, and Zach Stewart.

With the recent promotion of Texas’ top hitting prospect Justin Smoak, the 2010 MLB prospect call-up watch is in full effect. There’s a lot of speculation that Indians catcher Carlos Santana may be the next big-named prospect to make his major league debut, but there should be some eyes on Pittsburgh, too.

Third baseman Pedro Alvarez, the second overall pick of the ’08 draft out of Vanderbilt University, put himself on the must-watch list after a solid ’09 performance that included a .333/.419/.590 line in half a season at double-A. Overall, he managed 27 homers and 95 RBI in 126 games.

Alvarez is not currently tearing up triple-A like Smoak was, but the Pirates prospect is still hitting a respectable .258/.343/.484 in 16 games. After slugging three homers in the first week of the ’10 season, Alvarez has managed just one (and three extra base hits) in the last 10 games.

A left-handed hitter, Alvarez is struggling against southpaws with a .458 OPS in a small sample size. However, it’s been a career trend so far as his splits last season were: .714 OPS vs LHPs, 1.028 vs RHPs). Clearly he has work to do, but the Pirates big league club needs help.

In truth, the pitching is really what’s been bad – okay, terrible – for the big league club. It’s a huge reason why the club has lost six straight and has a 7-11 record. The Pirates club is also last in the NL in batting average at .224, which is even worse than the lowly Astros. It also has the second-lowest team wOBA at .301 and ISO rate at .122.

The club currently employs Andy LaRoche at third base. He was hitting .258/.378/.355 in 37 at-bats going into Sunday’s game when he went 4-for-4, and he’s coming off of a .324 wOBA season in ’09. If you’re not ready to move LaRoche, maybe we need to look at first base, where former top prospect (of the Mariners) Jeff Clement is currently hitting a paltry .174/.220/.326 in 46 at-bats. His career wOBA in 88 games is .291.

Most scouts feel Alvarez is destined to move across to first base, where his value would take a small hit. Even so, now may be the time, given the club’s needs and bleak outlook at the position. The time to call up Alvarez is probably not quite upon us, but it’s getting close.

SCOUTING SIDEBAR: I had a chance to watch Alvarez on April 23 against Louisville. Criticized for carrying extra weight in the past, the prospect is still thick around the middle but he moves pretty well. He made a nice play on a slow grounder to third base, although the throw had to be scooped out of the dirt by first baseman Steve Pearce. Alvarez also showed a pretty good eye at the plate and walked in the first. He also shocked me with pretty good form on an attempted sacrifice bunt out in front of home plate that just bounced foul.

Jose Tabata looks like he’s trimmed down a bit, which explains the league-leading eight steals. He was aggressive during the first at-bat of the game, swinging at the first three pitches. It wasn’t a great approach for the lead-off hitter. He was much better in his second at-bat. He took a few pitches and then got into a hitter’s count, saw a poorly-placed fastball and singled on it. His base running needs work. Tabata was picked off second base by the catcher on a missed bunt attempt.

With some teams struggling with injuries to catchers (Rangers, Angels), someone really needs to look at Erik Kratz (yes, I’m pimping him again). He’s a big target behind the plate, but he moves well for his size and is a quiet receiver. He also showed good pull power with a two-run home run on an inside fastball. He does have an upper-cut swing and probably won’t hit for a great average.

Former No. 1 prospect Neil Walker was playing second base in an attempt to increase his versatility and value. He actually looked pretty good at the plate – with some opposite-field power on display on a deep fly ball to the track – but I didn’t get much of a look at him in the field.

In the most recent edition of One Night Only, I previewed a Fresno/Portland Triple-A game that was due to feature, among others, the two most highly rated prospects in the San Francisco Giants system: 23-year-old catcher Buster Posey and 20-year-old lefty Madison Bumgarner.

For reasons that aren’t entirely clear, Bumgarner’s start — which originally seemed set to take place on Saturday — was pushed back to Sunday. (The same thing happened to Portland’s Josh Geer, so let’s not call the Conspiracy Police quite yet.) As such, I ended up attending both the Saturday night game (i.e. the one I’d previewed) and the Sunday day game (i.e. the one that Bumgarner started).

Posey caught both games and, in nine plate appearances, went 2-for-8 with a walk. Two of those outs were strikeouts. Of his six balls in play, three of them were line drives. In general, he resembled a very good baseball player.

My observations on Bumgarner require more attention, I think — and, as it turns out, attending both games allowed for an interesting portrait of the young prospect.

Below, I’ve broken my analysis of Bumgarner into the two days I saw him, and the two sides of his story — performance and personality — that seem to demand attention.

Sunday
The main concern about Bumgarner, both during the second half of last season and the beginning of this one, has been his velocity. After throwing in the mid-90s as a prep star and in the low minors, Bumgarner — according to Baseball America’s Prospect Handbook — pitched in the 88-90 mph range at Double-A and, per BIS and Pitchf/x data, averaged about 89 mph on his fastball in his 10 Major League innings (one start, three relief appearances).

Having been armed Sunday with a Jugs-brand radar gun — thanks to Bubblegum Baron/Hefty Lefty Rob Nelson and his “connections” — I’m able to announce with some certainty that Bumgarner was a tick or two higher in terms of fastball velocity, pitching in the 89-92 mph range for most of the game.

That’s not to say, however, that his outing was fantastic. Yes, he only allowed a single run on only four hits, but walked as many as he struck out (three of each) and conceded a couple of fly balls that, were they struck by anyone besides Sean Kazmar, might have been more damaging. Moreover, his fastball showed little in terms of movement, nor did his secondary pitches pose much of a challenge to the Portland batting order.

All of this conspired to net Bumgarner a mere five swing-and-misses on the day out of his 99 total pitches. (By comparison, Major League average for starters is somewhere around 8.0 – 8.5%.).

Physically, Bumgarner looks like a talented pitcher. He’s 6-foot-4 with a fluid motion. Also, there are signs from today’s performance that hint at the sort of general athleticism he possesses: not only did Bumgarner pick off two (two!) runners at first, he also fielded at least one bunt with what can only be described as “aplomb,” and even jacked a donger off Portland starter Josh Geer.

Saturday
No, I didn’t see Bumgarner pitch today, but here’s something I did do: sit mere feet away from the young prospect as he charted pitches for teammate Kevin Pucetas, Fresno’s starting pitcher.

And here’s another person who was there, too, sitting right behind Bumgarner: a young lady whom I’m presuming to be Bumgarner’s wife, Ali. (In fact, even if the young woman wasn’t his wife, the following points remain salient.)

Typically, I’d feel absolutely zero compulsion to discuss a player’s personal life. And the reader can rest assured: I’m not about to TMZ the frig outta this. I have no pictures of the couple going to Make Out City or freaking “all up” on each other, nor any reports to file about a domestic “incident” between the two.

Nor would it be necessary at all to invoke the newly wedded couple if it weren’t for the first three paragraphs of a recent article by Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News — three paragraphs that read exactly like this:

SAN DIEGO — Conspiracy theories abound as to why left-hander Madison Bumgarner suddenly became so hittable at Triple-A Fresno.

According to Brian Sabean, there is nothing physically the matter with the 20-year-old. But the Giants’ general manager provided a frank assessment of where things went off track for the heralded prospect.

“It’s this simple: He was preoccupied this winter and it cost him,” Sabean said. “He had personal stuff to straighten out, getting married, and he was ill-prepared to come into spring training. I don’t know how much he threw to get ready.”

It’s peculiar to me — to any reader, I’d imagine — that getting married would be one of the personal things Madison Bumgarner had to “straighten out” this offseason. In the interest of full disclosure, allow me to say that I, myself, got married just this past August. Though my wife despises me and scowls visibly whenever I enter her line of sight, this is almost exactly the way she behaved before we got married. This is indicative of other married couples I know — i.e., that, for whatever else happens after the wedding ceremony, “straightening out” isn’t so much a part of it.

So that’s one thing.

The other thing is this, from another article by Baggarly back on February 20th, discussing the pace at which Bumgarner had moved through the Giants system:

Bumgarner is on the fast track in other areas, too. He and his girlfriend of four years, Ali, got married on Valentine’s Day.

“Oh, yeah, we were ready,” Bumgarner said. “We were very sure.”

Among my peer group — and among my social class, in general — to marry before the age of 25 is akin to personal failure. It’s as if one were admitting, “I have nowhere else to go and realize it. Might as well hand it off to the next generation and hope they do better.” Of course, I say this less to make a blanket statement about marriage and more to suggest that I might not be the person to comment on this. Still, to declare, as a 20-year-old, that one is “very sure” about his marriage — that sounds strange to these ears.

Beyond that, there’s this final consideration: Bumgarner’s half-sister died during spring training. That’s different than getting married, I recognize, but inasmuch as it concerns something called “emotions,” it seems relevant.

This is all sort of speculative, I understand, in terms of guessing what’s “wrong” with Madison Bumgarner. But here’s a larger point that isn’t: no matter how bad Dave Allen wants baseball players to be replaced by human-looking robots, it hasn’t happened yet. The thing we call “make-up” may not matter a ton at the Major League level — if a player has gotten that far, he’s done something right. For prospects, it probably means a bunch more, though. And for 20-year-old prospects, it means more still, I bet.

How does this relate to a site (i.e. FanGraphs) that’s made its reputation on providing white hot statistical analysis? It’s this (I think): the stats are only outputs. They describe what’s happened — sometimes on a more, sometimes on a less, granular level. As for the inputs, those are harder to understand, even with a scouting perspective. Certainly things like arm speed, strength of rotator cuff, and ability to repeat one’s release point — those are all important. But something like choice of mate might be another — not just for Bumgarner, but for any player.

It hurts my brain to think about — that is, the million and one uncontrolled variables that make up a prospect — so I won’t dwell on it. Best, probably, to (a) acknowledge that in these matters, there are both known unknowns and also some unknown unknowns, (b) accept that this is the case, and (c) turn one’s attention to problems of a more solvable nature.

Looking to fill the void of injured Designated Hitter Carlos Guillen, the Tigers called up one of the minor leagues’ hottest hitters, and their number 8 prospect (as ranked by Marc Hulet), Brennan Boesch. A third-round pick in the 2006 draft, Boesch was hitting .379/.455/.621 in his first season in Triple-A, and figures to be a regular against right-handed pitchers in the Tigers lineup.

This newfound role could be a sign of things to come, as Hulet wrote in his Tigers prospect rankings that, “[Boesch’s] career OPS of .654 against southpaws suggests that a platoon role is in Boesch’s MLB future.” This has continued to look true in Toledo, where Boesch is hitting an empty (no BB, no XBH) .294 against LHP’s. Since we haven’t evaluated a prospect in WAR terms in awhile, let’s unscientifically see what Boesch could become if relegated to platoon status in his team-controlled seasons. Going through the peripheral skills:

Playing Time: We’re going to just look at the platoon outcome for his career today, which would mean something between 500-550 plate appearances per season. We’ll middle it, and give Boesch +17.5 in replacement per season.

Position: Replacing Guillen and his big frame might make people think Boesch is a DH, but playing him as such would be a waste. To quote Baseball America’s summation of him before the 2006 draft, which still holds true today, “Boesch has significant athletic ability for a big man, allowing him to move well for his size, and could play either outfield corner thanks to a slightly above-average arm and average speed.” So let’s go with -6 for his corner outfield positional adjustment, and +2.5 for his defense.

Power: The strength of Boesch’s game. He led the Eastern League with 28 home runs in the hitter-friendly Erie park last season, but only hit 17 home runs in 1,000 plate appearances in pitcher-friendly environments in the Midwest and Florida State Leagues in the two years prior. Still, given his 7 extra base hits in 66 plate appearances in Triple-A prior to the call-up, I am going to assume that Boesch can hit the long ball.

Plate Discipline: And, the weakness of Boesch’s game. To quote Kevin Goldstein, who ranked Boesch as the Tigers #15 prospect, “He’s a massive outfielder with massive power and massive holes in his swing.” I can recall many scouts worried that Boesch had a metal bat swing when he came out of Cal, and while the Tigers scouts rejection of that notion has been validated to some degree, Boesch swings through a lot of pitches. He also doesn’t walk much, with a career BB% between 6-6.5 percent. In 525 PA’s, I’d expect something like 31.5 walks and 115.5 strikeouts.

Doing some behind-the-scenes math work to these evaluations, I have Boesch something like .280/.328/.439 in the Majors, although I admit that’s a pessimistic power projection. This works out to a .338 wOBA, which would be something like +3.5 with the bat.

So, adding up our WAR calculation, I think that the Tiger scould expect about 1.75 WAR from Boesch given 525 plate appearances in a corner outfield platoon role. Detroit fans would probably like to think they could do better, so the play for Dave Dombrowski and company might be to trade Boesch this July should he have much success in this forthcoming cup of coffee.