General Manager: Alex Anthopoulos
Farm Director: Tony LaCava
Scouting Director: Andrew Tinnish

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-slot signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st Round: Chad Jenkins, RHP, Kennesaw State
1S. James Paxton, LHP, Kentucky (Did not sign)
2. Jake Eliopoulos, LHP, Ontario HS (Did not sign)
3. Jake Barrett, RHP, Arizona HS (Did not sign)
3. Jake Marisnick, OF, California HS
6x- K.C. Hobson, OF, California HS
15x – Andrew Hutchinson, RHP, Florida HS
18x – Daniel Webb, RHP, Florida JC

Ah, the amateur draft. What was once the strength of the organization became a weakness during the Ricciardi regime, and that was on full display when the organization failed to sign three of its top four draft picks in ’09. The club managed to get Jenkins signed, but he has yet to throw a pitch for the club. As well, Marisnick, Webb, Hobson, and Hutchinson all failed to sign in time to receive valuable development instruction during the ’09 season.

The organization received compensatory picks for the three players that did not sign in ’09, but the club loses some leverage; if the players they choose in those positions in ’10 do not sign, then the club does not receive compensation in 2011… and you can bet the players’ advisers will be all over that.

2008 1st Round: David Cooper, 1B, California
2. Kenny Wilson, OF, Florida HS
3. Andrew Liebel, RHP, Long Beach State

Another somewhat uninspired draft. The club wanted Brett Wallace (and eventually got him) but settled for Cooper in the draft. After a solid debut, the first baseman looked a little lost at double-A and hit just .258/.340/.389 with a .131 ISO in 473 at-bats. His walk rate of 11.0% brings some hope with it, and the strikeout rate was reasonable at 19.5% if the left-handed hitter can find his power stroke. With below-average defense, Cooper is all offense.

Wilson was a bit of a surprise in the second round. After years of avoiding raw, athletic players the organization is still learning how to develop them properly and this speedster needs to harness his swing (30.8 K%, .093 ISO in low-A). He nabbed 37 bases in 49 attempts but missed time due to injury and appeared in just 95 games on the season.

Third-rounder Liebel is not flashy; he’s more of a durable, workhorse-type with an average fastball and good control (2.42 BB/9 in high-A). He posted a 3.66 FIP in the Florida State League and received two late-season starts in double-A. His ground-ball rate was just shy of 50%.

The club scored with reliever Danny Farquhar in the 10th round (mid-90s fastball, crazy movement and 51% GB rate), as he slips into the Top 10 list at the expense of a few less-developed prospects. Tyler Pastornicky (5th round) is an intriguing shortstop with good speed (57 steals in 75 tries) but limited power. Right-hander Bobby Bell (18th) also had a nice ’09 season (10.46 K/9, 50% GB rate in 96.1 innings) and seems fully recovered from injuries suffered while playing college ball for Rice University.

2007 1st Round: Kevin Ahrens, 3B, Texas HS
1. J.P. Arencibia, C, Tennessee
1S. Brett Cecil, LHP, Maryland
1S. Justin Jackson, SS, North Carolina HS
1S. Trystan Magnuson, RHP, Louisville
2. John Tolisano, 2B, Florida HS
2. Eric Eiland, OF, Texas HS
3. Alan Farina, RHP, Clemson

With seven picks before the third round, the club looked poised to really infuse some depth and talent into the minor league system. Unfortunately, the organization has not had much luck developing prep picks (outside of Travis Snider, a rare talent) after years of focusing on collegiate picks only. Ahrens (.215/.282/.302), Jackson (.213/.321/.269), Tolisano (.232/.305/.379), and Eiland (.194/.289/.258) have all underperformed – but the quartet is also still young.

Arencibia had a breakout ’08 season but slipped while playing in triple-A in ’09. Despite that fact, he made the Top 10 list based on his potential. Cecil contributed to the Majors in ’09 and made 17 starts for Toronto after spending much of his college career in the bullpen. Magnuson had a poor ’08 season in the rotation in low-A ball, but he moved back to the bullpen in ’09 and reached double-A. Farina has been slowed by injuries but he has a good fastball.

Left-hander Marc Rzepczynski (5th round) could end up being the steal of the draft for the Jays. The left-hander made 11 starts for Toronto in ’09 and gets a ton of ground balls (51.2% in the Majors). Randy Boone (7th) is another good ground-ball pitcher (53.6 GB%). Second baseman Brad Emaus (11th) should serve as an offensive-minded utility player in the Scott Spiezio mold. Outfielder Darin Mastroianni (16th) had a nice ’09 season by reaching double-A and he could also develop into a useful part-time player after nabbing 70 bases in 85 tries and hitting .301/.400/.370 with a 13.4% walk rate between high-A and double-A.

2006 1st Round: Travis Snider, OF, Washington HS
2. None
3. None
x- Graham Godfrey, RHP, College of Charleston

Snider makes this draft, which is a good thing since the club did not have second- or third-round picks. Snider struggled in 77 big-league games in ’09 by hitting .241/.328/.419 but his potential remains massive. He just needs to trim his strikeout rate (32.4%) and stop swinging at so many pitcher’s pitches.

Godfrey was used (along with Kristian Bell) to obtain Marco Scutaro from the A’s, which turned out to be one of Ricciardi’s best deals, as it netted the Jays two years of the infielder and then two draft picks (34th, 78th overall), as he recently signed with Boston as a free agent.

Up Next: The Toronto Blue Jays Top 10 Prospects

General Manager: Ruben Amaro Jr.
Farm Director: Steve Noworyta
Scouting Director: Marti Wolever

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

This organization definitely has a different feel after the Roy Halladay/Cliff Lee trades. The loss of prospects Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor and Travis D’Arnaud to the Blue Jays (Taylor later got flipped to Oakland) hurts the overall depth of the Top 10 list, and the players that came back from Seattle were not of an equal value. Beyond Brown there are a lot of question marks.

1. Domonic Brown, OF, Double-A
DOB: September 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2006 20th round – Georgia HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

The club is lucky to still have Brown, aka the player Toronto really wanted in the Roy Halladay trade. The 2010 season could be the year that Brown vaults into elite prospect status, if he’s not already there for most people. The outfielder is a speed/power threat with two straight seasons of 20-plus steals and an ISO of .214 at high-A in ’09 (His .177 ISO in double-A wasn’t bad, either). Overall, he hit .298/.376/.494 on the season. One minor knock on Brown to this point has been his durability. Injuries have kept him from appearing in more than 114 games over the past three seasons. Of concern, as well, is the jump in strikeout rate last season (20.2 in high-A, 25.2% in double-A) but that is to be somewhat expected with a jump in his power output. His walk rate remained solid (12.1 in high-A, 8.6% in double-A).

2. Phillippe Aumont, RHP, Double-A
DOB: January 1989 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – Quebec HS (Seattle)
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-95 mph fastball, slider, change-up

The top player acquired in the surprising Cliff Lee trade with Seattle, Aumont is armed with a big-time fastball but his secondary pitches leave something to be desired. Despite that fact (and a history of injury problems), his new organization is planning to stick him back in the starting rotation. Drafted in the first round as a raw Canadian prep pitcher, Aumont quickly reached double-A in less than two seasons (in part due to Seattle’s aggressive approach). The 21-year-old pitcher’s ’09 season was solid. He began the year in high-A – in a very good hitter’s league – and posted a 3.53 FIP while allowing 24 hits in 33.1 innings of work (thanks in part to a .264 BABIP). He showed OK control with a walk rate of 3.24 BB/9 and a solid strikeout rate of 9.45 K/9. That whiff rate jumped to 12.23 K/9 upon his promotion to double-A, but his walk rate also rose to 5.60 BB/9. His BABIP-allowed jumped to .436 and his LOB% plummeted to an unlucky 59.5%. Aumont will be a pitcher to watch closely in 2010, as he is one of the most volatile prospects in the game.

3. Trevor May, RHP, Low-A
DOB: September 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 4th round – Washington HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

May had an excellent season, but caution must be used due to his limited sample size. In 15 low-A starts, the right-hander posted a strikeout rate of 11.06 K/9 and allowed just 58 hits in 77.1 innings of work. He had control issues and had a walk rate of 5.00 BB/9 but a HR/9 rate of 0.35 helped to keep the damage to a minimum. May also benefited from luck with a LOB% of 80.0%. He needs to try and get his ground-ball rate up above 40%. The youngster could begin 2010 back in low-A or the organization could be aggressive and move him up to high-A. Either way, he needs to get 25 starts this year so we can see what his potential is with a larger workload.

4. Juan Ramirez, RHP, High-A
DOB: August 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Nicaragua)
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 90-95 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Another piece obtained in the Lee deal with Seattle, Ramirez has a nice fastball but he is still trying to put all the pieces together. The right-handed prospect had a rough time playing in a good hitter’s park in high-A in ’09. He posted a 4.76 FIP and allowed 153 hits in 142.1 innings. His strikeout rate also dropped below 8.20 K/9 for the first time in three years to 7.02 K/9. His walk rate, though, remained respectable at 3.35 BB/9 and he kept his line-drive rate to 12%. Despite a 42% ground-ball rate (which is OK, not great), Ramirez allowed quite a few homers (1.14 HR/9) so he’ll need to improve that for 2010. At worst, he should develop into back-of-the-rotation starter, with the potential to be a No. 3. A set-up role in the bullpen would not be out of the question.

5. Sebastian Valle, C, Low-A
DOB: July 1990 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Mexico)
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Valle has the makings of a solid offensive-minded catcher, although his wOBA plummeted to .301 in his first taste of full-season ball in ’09. At low-A ball, the catcher hit just .223/.313/.331 in 157 at-bats. In short-season ball, though, the left-handed hitter posted a .390 wOBA and a triple-slash line of .307/.335/.531 in 192 at-bats. Valle showed a better walk rate at low-A (8.9%) than in short-season ball (4.9%) and his +20% strikeout rate is a tad high, although his ISO rate was .224 at the junior level. He needs to improve against southpaws, as his OPS was .659 against them, compared to .815 against right-handers. Defensively, the Mexico native is a work-in-progress and he threw out just 18% of base runners in ’09.

6. Tyson Gillies, OF, High-A
DOB: October 1988 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2006 25th round – Iowa Western CC (Seattle)
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

The is reason to be excited about Gillies, but the outfielder was playing in one of the best hitter’s leagues in all of baseball. His .411 wOBA is nice, as is his triple-slash line of .341/.430/.486, but his BABIP was .395. There are two things about his game that he cannot luck into, though: his walk rate of 10.1% and his 44 steals (although he was caught 19 times). The 2010 season will be a telling one for Gillies, who will be moving to a more neutral league. To have success, he just needs to keep doing what he’s doing: Hitting a lot of ground balls (61% in ’09) and using his speed to get on base (and then into scoring position).

7. Anthony Gose, OF, Low-A
DOB: August 1990 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 2nd round – California HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

In some regards, Gose is similar to Gillies – only more raw. Gose had a respectable first full season in the minors and hit .259/.323/.353 in 510 at-bats. His speed was on full display as he stole 76 bases in 96 attempts. To fully take advantage of his speed to its full extent, though, he needs to improve his .323 OBP and 6.1% walk rate. The strikeout rate is also far too high (21.6%) for someone with an .094 ISO rate. Like Gillies, Gose does a nice job of keeping the ball on the ground (64 GB%). Oddly, the left-handed hitter fared much better against southpaws than right-handers in ’09 (.824 vs .638 OPS).

8. Antonio Bastardo, LHP, Majors
DOB: September 1985 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 87-92 mph fastball, plus change-up, slider

It was a busy year for Bastardo, who pitched at five different levels, spent time on the DL and made his MLB debut. In six Major League appearances, the lefty posted a 5.08 FIP but showed solid control with a walk rate of 3.42. He spent the majority of the season in double-A, where he posted a 2.03 FIP and allowed 22 hits in 36.0 innings. His strikeout rate was an eye-popping 10.25 K/9 and his control was spot-on at 1.75 BB/9. A starter in the minors, Bastardo could make the Phillies bullpen in 2010, as he possesses a slightly-above average heater for a lefty and good slider. His change-up was a well-below-average pitch in his brief MLB debut.

9. John Mayberry, OF, Majors
DOB: December 1983 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 1st round – Stanford University (Texas)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 1

A former two-time No. 1 draft pick (out of high school and college), Mayberry’s dad (of the same name) was also a pretty good hitter in his day. The younger Mayberry has massive power potential but he has yet to show an ability to hit for a high average in pro ball, which drags down his overall numbers – especially considering his OBP is relatively low, as well. The prospect showed his power potential by mashing the ball (.263 ISO) in a 39-game MLB trial in ’09. He spent the majority of the year in triple-A where he hit .256/.332/.456 with an ISO of .199 in 316 at-bats. Despite his size (6’6”, 230 lbs), Mayberry also possesses the ability to steal 10 bases with regular playing time. Already 26, the outfielder (who can also play first base) is big-league ready but there is no spot for him. If he makes the 2010 opening day roster, it will be as a part-time player – or due to an injury to Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez or Jayson Werth.

10. Scott Mathieson, RHP, Double-A
DOB: February 1984 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2002 17th round – British Columbia HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 1
Repertoire: 91-97 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Mathieson is a great story and he gets the nod over some other players like Jarred Cosart and Domingo Santana, both of whom played in the Gulf Coast League (rookie ball) this past season. He had a lot of success in the bullpen in ’09 while recovering from his second Tommy John surgery (interesting fellow Canadian hurler Shawn Hill, now with the Jays, also underwent a second procedure last June and is on the comeback trail). In 33.0 combined innings in ’09, the right-hander allowed 22 hits (.188 AVG), a walk rate of 3.27 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 8.45 K/9. He also gave up just one homer (0.27 HR/9) despite a low ground-ball rate (39.4%). If his elbow holds up, Mathieson could eventually see time as a closer. He will turn 26 by the time the season begins and he will likely receive some more fine-tuning in triple-A before he trusted with a big-league bullpen role. If he can continue to show good control and a blazing fastball, Mathieson could be contributing at the MLB level by mid-season.

Up Next: The Toronto Blue Jays

A little more than a week ago, Riley Cooper had plans to travel to Arlington, Texas to pick up a $125,000 check. It was half of the signing bonus that Cooper had agreed to with the Texas Rangers, a significantly over-slot signing for the 754th overall selection. Cooper, who only started 41 games for the Florida Gators baseball team in three seasons, was deemed a coup for the Rangers scouting department, as no other organization thought it possible he would give up football for baseball. Ultimately, the other 29 were correct, as it was revealed Tuesday that Cooper canceled his physical (and check signing) with the Rangers to pursue a career in the National Football League.

Cooper has not been the only established college player to make this decision recently, as he is joined by all-SEC safety Chad Jones (LSU) and Heisman Trophy finalist Toby Gerhart (Stanford), both of whom some expected to re-join their college teams this spring.

The best prospect in both sports, by a country mile, is Jones. In fact, Jones is the most polished two-way player we have seen since Jeff Samardzija. Where he lacks Samardzija’s proven baseball record, Jones matched the former Golden Domer in arm strength. Paul Mainieri’s crew began to give him time out of the LSU bullpen late last season, and he emerged as an important member of their pitching staff in Omaha. While he would have had to show polish with his secondary stuff this spring, his potential as a mid-90s lefty, with good spin on his curveball, was getting first-round grades from some scouts. But those scouts also knew he loved football.

“I really thought we’d lose him,” said Louisiana State coach Paul Mainieri, who also coached Samardzija at Notre Dame. “I thought he wanted to go into pro football. Mentally, I was already preparing that he would go unless word came back that he wouldn’t get drafted high.”

Jones could not have had the leverage that Samardzija did, and would not have sniffed the $10 million that he received from the Cubs. Still, the nature of the provisions that two-sport athletes receive in the MLB Draft, which allows MLB teams to spread the bonus over five years, would have led to an above-slot contract. I believe something in the neighborhood of what Shelby Miller received from the Cards last year — qualifying for two-sport status as an all-state prep punter — as a first round pick, $2.875 million, would have been available to Jones. On the contrary, in the NFL Drat last year, the two defensive backs drafted closest to 44th overall (where Scouts Inc. ranks Jones) received $2.15 and $2 million guaranteed, with four-year contracts in the $4-5 million range. Jones, as you can see, is giving up guaranteed money in the short-term to follow his NFL passion.

When Gerhart went undrafted last June, it became clear that he had voiced to scouts his intentions to pursue a football career. When he emerged as the nation’s most productive runner this season, this was etched in stone, as Gerhart is now a higher ranked football player (85th overall by Scouts Inc.) than he would have been as a baseball player. I saw Gerhart at the 2008 College World Series, and he was very impressive — but more so physically and in batting practice than in game play. While he went 12-for-12 stealing bases in college, he didn’t show the home-to-first speed you’d like in a college running back, and all his power would have been projected down the road.

Finally, we have Cooper, and we don’t have to guess what he’s passing on: the agreed-upon $250,000 contract he signed last year. The contract was contingent upon Cooper giving up football after one more autumn with Mr. Tebow, but the Gators’ success was enough for him to stay with the pigskin. He’s much more polished there, and though he ranks only as the No. 17 wideout through Scouts Inc., just the presence on a 53-man roster will give him more money than the Rangers promised. While Cooper was a star defensive outfielder with great speed, he was raw, showing scouts only 147 at-bats in two seasons. Financially, it’s clear: if he makes a roster in football, he made the right choice (financially). If he doesn’t, then we’ll have to wonder what if.

Failure in football could see all these players retreat to baseball, but the bonuses will be long gone. Hopefully they never reach the point of wondering what if, and each succeeds in their chosen sport.

General Manager: Ruben Amaro Jr.
Farm Director: Steve Noworyta
Scouting Director: Marti Wolever

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-slot signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st Round: None
2. Kelly Dugan, OF, California HS
3. Kyrell Hudson, OF, Washington HS
6x – Steven Inch, RHP, Alberta HS [85-88 FB, CB, CH]
7x – Brody Colvin, RHP, Louisiana HS [89-94 FB, CB, CH]
8x – Jonathan Singleton, 1B, California HS

A bit of a surprise pick in the second round (the club’s first choice), Dugan was expected to go to Pepperdine University, but the Phillies organization convinced him to go pro. He had a slow start to his career by posting a wOBA of .288 and a triple-slash line of .233/.297/.300 in 150 at-bats. Known for having some pop, he did not go deep in his debut and his ISO rate was just .067.

Hudson appeared in just 10 games after signing and he hit .162/.225/.216 in rookie ball. Inch, a Canadian, appeared in two games after signing and allowed six runs in two innings of work.

Colvin, perhaps the best prospect grabbed in the draft, appeared in just one game after signing and did not allow a hit in two innings of work. The organization stole him away from a Louisiana State commitment and he possesses a good fastball-curveball combo.

Headed for Long Beach State, Singleton was swayed to pro ball for just $200,000 and that may end up being a steal. He had an excellent debut in rookie ball and hit .290/.395/.440 in 100 at-bats. He walked more than he struck out (1.38 BB/K) while showing solid power potential.

2008 1st Round: Anthony Hewitt, SS, Connecticut HS
1S. Zach Collier, OF, California HS
2. Anthony Gose, OF, California HS
2. Jason Knapp, RHP, New Jersey HS
3. Vance Worley, RHP, Long Beach State
3S. Jon Pettibone, RHP, California HS
4x – Trevor May, RHP, Washington HS
6x – Colby Shreve, RHP, Nevada CC
38x – Jarred Cosart, RHP, Texas HS

Although the club’s first two picks in Hewitt (.223/.255/.395 at short-season ball in ’09) and Collier (.218/.275/.319 at A-ball in ’09) have not shown much in pro ball, this was an outstanding draft for the organization, as it nabbed two Top 10 picks (Gose and May) and one that just missed (Cosart). Knapp would have been a Top 10 prospect if he had not been sent to Cleveland in the Cliff Lee deal last season.

Worley had an excellent debut, but he slipped a bit when he was rushed to double-A in ’09. The right-hander posted a 4.39 FIP and he allowed 163 hits in 153.1 innings of work. He showed good control (2.88 BB/9) but his strikeout rate was just 5.87 K/9. Worley also allowed 17 homers. Pettibone had a better year in ’09 than his 5.35 ERA would suggest in short-season ball. His FIP was just 2.61 and he was unlucky due to a high BABIP (.368) and a low LOB% (48.2%). He does need to improve his control (4.08 BB/9) but the strikeout rate was good (9.17 K/9).

The club handed Shreve a $400,000 contract to forgo his University of Arkansas commitment, despite the fact that he was due to undergo Tommy John surgery. He has yet to throw a pro pitch, but he is expected back on the mound in 2010. Cosart was a two-way player in high school with potential with the bat, but clubs coveted his mid-90s fastball. The Phillies organization got a deal done and it looks like a very smart decision. Cosart made just seven appearances in ’09 after beginning the year in extended spring training but he looked good. In 24.1 innings he allowed just 12 hits and seven walks (2.59 BB/9). He also did not give up a home run.

2007 1st Round: Joe Savery, LHP, Rice
1S. Travis D’Arnaud, C, California HS
2. Travis Mattair, 3B, Washington HS
3. Brandon Workman, RHP, Texas HS (Did not sign)
3. Matt Spencer, OF, Arizona State
x- Julian Sampson, RHP, Washington HS

This was a disappointing draft, save for D’Arnaud, who was recently sent to Toronto in the Roy Halladay deal. Third-rounder Spencer was sent to Oakland in a trade in ’08. First-rounder Savery has been a disappointment and has never fully recovered from injuries suffered in college. His command and control deserted him in ’09.

Mattair had a tough year while repeating low-A ball and hit just .236/.326/.333 in 450 at-bats. He posted a strikeout rate of 29.1K% and an ISO rate of just .098. Sampson has failed to build on his promise, thanks in part to chronically-low strikeout rates. In 69.2 high-A innings in ’09, the right-hander had a K-rate of 4.78 K/9 and allowed 93 hits (including 10 homers).

Michael Taylor was a great value in the fifth round, but he was lost in the Halladay deal.

2006 1st Round: Kyle Drabek, RHP, Texas HS
1S. Adrian Cardenas, 2B, Florida HS
2. Andrew Carpenter, RHP, Long Beach State
3. Jason Donald, SS, Arizona
x- Domonic Brown, OF, Georgia HS

The 2006 draft was another excellent one for the organization but the returns have been gutted by trades. First pick Drabek was lost in the Halladay trade. Cardenas went to Oakland in the Joe Blanton deal, and Donald went to Cleveland in the Lee trade.

On the plus side, the club also nabbed top prospect Brown in the 20th round for just $200,000. Carpenter has filled in for injuries a few times at the MLB level and looks like a future back-of-the-rotation starter or long reliever.

Up Next: The Philadelphia Phillies Top 10 Prospects

General Manager: Theo Epstein
Farm Director: Mike Hazen
Scouting Director: Amiel Sawdaye

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

There are no can’t-miss, once-in-a-decade talents on this Top 10 list, but there are a number of players who have the opportunity to really explode in 2010. You also have to love the fact that all 10 players on the list were drafted or originally signed by the Red Sox organization. You can’t fake good scouting and development.

1. Casey Kelly, RHP, High-A
DOB: October 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, plus curveball, change

The organization faced a difficult, and well-document, problem in ’09 when Kelly expressed a desire to hit and play shortstop. A compromise was made and the talented prospect spent the year as a two-way player. After hitting just .224/.305/.313 with a 29% strikeout rate in low-A, though, Kelly gave in and announced he will be a full-time pitcher in 2010. It’s a good thing, too, because the right-hander showed a lot of promise for a player whose heart was not 100% on the mound last season. In low-A ball, he allowed 32 hits in 48.1 innings, while showing outstanding control with a walk rate of just 1.68 BB/9. He also did not allow a home run while posting a FIP of 2.14. That number jumped a bit with his promotion to high-A (3.33) but Kelly still showed excellent control (1.35 BB/9) with a modest strikeout rate of 6.75 K/9. With just 46.2 innings of experience above low-A, Kelly should head back to high-A in 2010, but he could see double-A before the end of the season.

2. Ryan Westmoreland, OF, Short-Season
DOB: April 1990 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 5th round – Rhode Island HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Westmoreland’s season came to a crashing halt when he broke his collar bone, but the outfielder solidified himself as the organization’s best hitter… in just 223 at-bats. The 19 year old hit .296/.401/.484 and showed good power potential with an ISO of .188. He also displayed patience at the plate with a walk rate of 14.2%, far exceeding what you’d expect from a player his age. His strikeout rate was a little high, but his future power output could eventually justify the number. Westmoreland was also a force on the base paths by stealing 19 bases in as many attempts. Sure it was short-season ball but a .427 wOBA is impressive no matter how you slice it.

3. Junichi Tazawa, RHP, Majors
DOB: June 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 non-drafted international free agent (Japan)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, plus splitter, curveball, slider

Tazawa’s mad mix of pitches cut a swath through double-A line-ups but the Japanese import found the going a little tougher in triple-A and the Majors (albeit in a smaller sample size). The right-hander allowed just 80 hits in 98.0 innings in double-A, while also posting a strikeout rate of 8.08 K/9. He was also aided by solid control (2.39 BB/9) and some luck (.277 BABIP, 79.8 LOB%). In six MLB appearances, Tazawa allowed 43 hits in 25.1 innings and his strikeout rate dropped to just 4.62 K/9. His ground-ball rate in the Majors of 24.5% was ugly, and hitters had little trouble with his 90 mph fastball (-2.54 runs “above” average per 100 pitches). Despite the bump in the road, Tazawa is still learning, as well as adjusting to life in North America, so his potential remains high.

4. Josh Reddick, OF, Majors
DOB: February 1987 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2006 17th round – Middle Georgia College
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

Reddick got off to a solid start in ’09 at double-A and hit .277/.352/.520 in 256 at-bats. He showed outstanding power with an ISO rate of .242. His base running, after nabbing 14 bases in 17 ties in ’08, was almost non-existent as he was successful just five times in 10 attempts. Reddick’s numbers were terrible in 18 triple-A games and poor in 27 MLB games. His walk rate was good in double-A at 10.5%, but it dropped to 7.6% in triple-A and 3.2% in the Majors. On the plus side, six of his 10 MLB hits were for extra bases (59 at-bats). Reddick will certainly receive more seasoning in triple-A in 2010 but he should be ready to compete for a full-time gig in 2011… if there’s an opportunity.

5. Lars Anderson, 1B, Double-A
DOB: September 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2006 18th round – California HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

It was an ugly, ugly year for Anderson… and his struggles were well-documented. After hitting .316 in 41 double-A games in ’08, the first-base prospect spent the entire season at that level but hit just .233/.328/.345 with an ISO of .112 in 447 at-bats. There were a few good signs, including the fact that he maintained a solid walk rate (12.3%) and his strikeout rate did not skyrocket (25.5%, similar to his career norm – which admittedly is high to begin with). Anderson’s wOBA of .315 was .060 below his previous low of .374 at low-A in ’07. As a slow-footed player whose game requires plus power output, he needs to get that ground-ball rate up from 54.8%. Anderson will be just 22 for much of 2010, so he has time to turn things around.

6. Stolmy Pimentel, RHP, Low-A
DOB: February 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, plus change-up, curveball

Pimentel’s ’09 numbers do not wow. He allowed a lot of hits: 135 in 117.2 innings, but he put a lot of pitches in the strike zone (2.22 BB/9) at a level where players pretty much hack at everything. He also had some bad luck with a BABIP of .350. His strikeout rate was solid at 7.88 K/9 and his FIP was OK at 3.62. Pimentel’s ground-ball rate of 39.5% needs to improve if he’s going to survive the upper levels of the system. He turns 20 in February so time is on his side.

7. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, High-A
DOB: August 1989 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 6th round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Simply getting back to the baseball diamond after dealing with a cancer scare would have been impressive enough, but Rizzo went out and turned himself into one of the best prospects in the system. The first baseman hit .298/.365/.494 in 245 low-A at-bats before moving up to high-A where he hit .295/.371/.420. Rizzo’s power output dropped from .196 to .125 ISO with the move, but his walk rate improved (9.1 to 10.9%), as did his strikeout rate (24.5 to 19.5%). Rizzo, though, was aided by some nifty BABIPs of .364 and .354. Although he held his own against both right-handed and left-handed pitchers, his OPS was .862 against righties and just .721 against southpaws. He should open 2010 back in high-A but could move up to double-A as he prepares to breathe down Anderson’s neck.

8. Derrik Gibson, SS, Short-Season
DOB: December 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 2nd round – Delaware HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

A personal favorite of mine, Gibson received his second straight year of short-season ball and looked over-matched in a brief 14-game trial in low-A ball. In short-season ball, Gibson hit .290/.395/.380 and had a .386 wOBA in 255 at-bats. He showed good patience for a future top-of-the-order MLB hitter with a walk rate of 12.9% and his strikeout rate was reasonable at 16.5%. He’s performed poorly against southpaws for two straight seasons (.566, .621 OPS). After nabbing 14 steals in as many tries in ’08, Gibson was successful in 28 of his 33 tries in ’09. Defensively, he’s expected to move off of shortstop, which takes a bite out of his value.

9. Ryan Kalish, OF, Double-A
DOB: March 1988 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2006 9th round – New Jersey HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

I’m a little more bearish on Kalish than a lot of evaluators because he has yet to do anything really spectacular in four seasons. The outfielder had a nice year in ’09 and he hit .304/.434/.513 in 115 high-A at-bats. Moved up to double-A, his numbers normalized a bit with a line of .271/.341/.440. At the senior level, he posted a walk rate of 9.6% and a strikeout rate of 22.3%, which is a tad high given his career power numbers. I will certainly jump on the Kalish train in 2010 if he can maintain a solid batting average while also at least equaling his ’09 power numbers. After stealing 21 bases in 27 attempts in ’09, he could develop into a 20-20 player in the Majors if everything clicks. With everything said, I wouldn’t be shocked if he broke out in a big way in 2010 and made me look foolish for doubting him.

10. Michael Bowden, RHP, Majors
DOB: September 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 supplemental 1st round – Illinois HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

The knock on Bowden is that he’s not flashy. But there is something to be said for consistent and reliable. Pitching at double-A or higher since ’07, Bowden has posted solid numbers, although his FIP broke 4.00 for the first time while pitching for triple-A (4.08). Even so, he took advantage of some luck (.262 BABIP) and allowed just 106 hits in 126.1 innings, while showing OK control (3.35 BB/9) and a modest strikeout rate (6.27 K/9). He’ll do himself a favor if he can get the ball down in the zone more often and increase his ground-ball rate from the 31.1% he posted in triple-A. Called up to Boston to eat up some innings in the bullpen, Bowden did not have much fun – or luck. His 9.56 ERA was softened by his 5.16 FIP and he posted a LOB% rate of 48.4.

Up Next: The Philadelphia Phillies

General Manager: Theo Epstein
Farm Director: Mike Hazen
Scouting Director: Amiel Sawdaye

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-slot signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st Round: Reymond Fuentes, OF, Puerto Rico HS
2. Alex Wilson, RHP, Texas A&M
3. David Renfroe, SS, Mississippi HS
7x – Madison Younginer, RHP, South Carolina HS
9x – Kendal Volz, RHP, Baylor
10x – Brandon Jacobs, OF, Georgia HS
11x – Jason Thompson, SS, Tennessee HS
26x – Miles Head, 3B, Georgia HS

Despite the possibility of being hamstrung during each amateur draft due to consistently-late picks from finishing with such a good record each season, this first-class organization uses its considerable finances to award above-slot contacts to deserving talents. Over the past four drafts, the club has handed out 19 above-slot deals worth $200,000 or more, the highest number from any one club.

Considered a bit of a project before the ’09 draft, Fuentes enjoyed his debut in rookie ball by hitting .290/.331/.379 in 145 at-bats. He showed some rough edges in his base running ability and was caught five times in 14 attempts. He could also stand to be more patient at the plate after posting a walk rate of 4.4%.

Health woes prevented Wilson from receiving the kind of money he was looking for and the organization may have a real steal after handing him less than $500,000. Wilson appeared healthy in his debut, as he made 10 starts and allowed just 10 hits in 36.0 innings (He was on a pitch count) in short-season ball. He showed solid control with a walk rate of 1.75 BB/9 and his strikeout rate was good at 8.25 K/9. Wilson also did not allow a home run. Despite his 10 starts, the right-hander profiles as a late-game reliever, if he can maintain his peak fastball velocity for an entire season.

A $750,000 contract swayed Jacobs away from a football ride at Auburn University. After signing, though, he appeared in just six games. Despite his football-sized body, he’s an excellent athlete, but raw as a baseball player. Thompson had just one plate appearance after signing and he walked. Head received 32 plate appearances in ’09 and hit just .103 with eight strikeouts.

Youngsters Renfroe, Younginer, and Volz did not appear in a pro game after turning pro so they’ll make their debuts in 2010. Renfroe, a two-way prep player, has the highest upside of the trio and could reach low-A ball in ’10 with a strong spring performance although he’s more likely to begin the year in extended spring training.

2008 1st Round: Casey Kelly, RHP/SS, Florida HS
1S. Bryan Price, RHP, Rice
2. Derrik Gibson, SS, Delaware HS
3. Stephen Fife, RHP, Utah
4x – Pete Hissey, OF, Pennsylvania HS
5x – Ryan Westmoreland, OF, Rhode Island HS
6x – Ryan Lavarnway, C, Yale
13x – Tyler Wilson, RHP, Georgia HS
27x – Hunter Cervenka, LHP, Texas HS
35x – Carson Blair, SS, Texas HS

The club nabbed three Top 10 prospects with this draft: Kelly, Gibson, and Westmoreland. Price was traded to Cleveland in the Victor Martinez deal. Fife has shown some potential, but the ground-ball pitcher was hurt by a high BABIP in high-A ball in ’09. Hissey is a speedy sleeper to keep an eye on, especially if he can either trim his strikeout rate (23.8%) or improve his strength (.068 ISO). In other words, he needs to commit to being a slash-and-run guy, or drive the ball more.

Lavarnway had one of the quietest 21-homer seasons in ’09, which was odd considering his high-profile organization. He also slugged 35 doubles and posted a .255 ISO rate, while maintaining a solid batting average of .285, thanks to a high (especially for a catcher) BABIP of .348. On the downside, his value takes a hit because he’s probably not going to stick behind the plate.

Wilson, Cervenka, and Blair have all under-performed, but Blair’s value is increasing as he makes the conversion to backstop.

The club took a run at prep star Alex Meyer, a Boras client, in the 20th round after he dropped out of the first couple of rounds due to signability concerns, but he followed through on his commitment to the University of Kentucky.

2007 1st Round: Nick Hagadone, LHP, Washington
1S. Ryan Dent, SS, California HS
2. Hunter Morris, 1B, Alabama HS (Did not sign)
3. Brock Huntzinger, RHP, Indiana HS
5x – Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Texas HS
6x – Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Florida HS
7x – David Mailman, 1B, North Carolina HS
16x – Austin Bailey, RHP, Alabama HS
23x – Drake Britton, LHP, Texas HS

The club went prep crazy in ’07 and the only player signed to a $200,000+ deal from a college program, Nick Hagadone, was traded to Cleveland last season. From the group above, only Rizzo currently projects as a Top 10 talent.

Dent has reached high-A ball, but his bat looks like it’s going to produce utility-player offense. Huntzinger, who posted a 3.18 FIP in low-A ball, is a solid sleeper candidate in 2010. Mailman is another sleeper if he can improve his consistency after posting a wOBA of .379 in the first half of the year in low-A ball, compared to .242 in the second half in high-A.

Middlebrooks had a respectable first full year in the minors, but his strikeout rate of 32.9% needs to come way down for him to succeed at higher levels. Bailey (shoulder, suspension) appeared in just one game in two seasons, and Britton is recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Hunter Strickland was a great value in the 18th round, but he was traded to Pittsburgh last season in the Adam LaRoche deal. The club also took a run at two players that slid due to signability concerns: Yasmani Grandal, and Nick Tepesch, but both players went to college.

2006 1st Round: Jason Place, OF, South Carolina HS
1. Daniel Bard, RHP, North Carolina
1S. Kris Johnson, LHP, Wichita State
1S. Caleb Clay, RHP, Alabama HS
2. Justin Masterson, RHP, San Diego State
3. Aaron Bates, 1B, North Carolina State
3. Bryce Cox, RHP, Rice
x- Ryan Kalish, OF, New Jersey HS
x- Ty Weeden, C, Oklahoma HS
x- Lars Anderson, 1B, California HS

Bard is the closer-in-waiting in Boston, and will likely serve as the set-up man to Jonathan Papelbon in 2010. Place has been all over the, er, place with his performances but it’s hard to project him as a full-time big leaguer due to his low power output and high strikeout numbers. Masterson was traded to Cleveland in ’09. Anderson had a rough ’09 season, but he’s still a Top-10 talent, as is Kalish.

The club missed with Johnson and Weeden. Clay has produced underwhelming numbers, but he’s still young. Bates made his MLB debut in ’09, due to a lack of first base depth in the upper minors and is basically a quad-A player. Cox’ value has diminished to that of a middle reliever at the MLB level.

Outfielder Josh Reddick was a steal in the 17th round and he is on the club’s Top 10 prospect list, due out on Monday. First baseman Matt LaPorta, a college junior, turned down the club as a 14th-rounder and was a first-round pick by Milwaukee in ’07 as a senior. Nick Hill would have been a nice grab in the 47th round, but he went to Seattle in the ’07 draft and could appear in the Majors in 2010.

Up Next: The Boston Red Sox Top 10 Prospects

General Manager: Michael Hill
Farm Director: Brian Chattin
Scouting Director: Stan Meek

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

Say what you will about the lack of overall depth in the system beyond the first two or three prospects on this list, but the Marlins organization is one of few clubs that will have drafted (or originally signed) all 10 players on the list. That says something for the organization’s scouts and front office. The club definitely is hurting in the pitching department, but a lot of that comes from rushing its young arms in past seasons.

1. Michael Stanton, OF, Double-A
DOB: November 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 2nd round – California HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

I personally don’t meet many 6’5” 20 year olds in my everyday life, so it’s easy to see where Stanton’s massive power comes from when he takes to the field. The outfielder posted a .283 ISO rate in high-A ball in ’09 and followed that up with a rate of .229 in double-A. Stanton’s numbers dropped pretty significantly in other areas, though, after the promotion. His wOBA went from .433 to .344. He also saw his BABIP drop from .333 to a .288. His strikeout rate jumped from 25.0 to 33.1%, while his walk rate plummeted from 13.5 to 9.4%. Stanton obviously has massive power potential as a future MLBer, but it will be his contact rate that dictates just how big of an impact he has… The good news is that he has plenty of time to make some adjustments in his approach, as he has two more full seasons before he has to be added to the 40-man roster (and begin to burn through his three minor-league options).

2. Logan Morrison, 1B, Double-A
DOB: August 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2005 22nd round – Louisiana HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

If not for an injury-riddled season (He appeared in just 79 games), Morrison probably would have received playing time in Florida at some point during the ’09 season, especially after Gaby Sanchez disappointed in a limited opportunity. Morrison does not project to be a power-hitting first baseman, but he is more of a gap hitter (15-20 homers) that makes consistent contact and hits for a good batting average. He broke out in a big way in ’08 by hitting .332/.402/.494 (.377 BABIP) while playing in a pitchers’ league. In ’09, Morrison hit .277/.411/.442 in 278 at-bats at double-A. Although his average took a hit over the previous season, the first baseman did see his walk rate jump from 10.5 to 18.5%, and his BB/K was an outstanding 1.37. He even has the ability to swipe a few bases with heads-up base running.

3. Matt Dominguez, 3B, High-A
DOB: August 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – California HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

It’s been an up-and-down career for the former first round draft pick but we saw an encouraging sign or two in ’09. Dominguez spent the majority of the year in high-A and hit a modest .262/.333/.420 with a .346 wOBA in 381 at-bats. The third baseman, with a reputation for having a strong glove, has seen his walk rate improve each season since signing in ’07 and it reached a career-high of 9.1% in high-A. It even jumped up to 12.6% during a small-sample-size display (31 games) in double-A at the end of the season. Dominguez also suffered from a low BABIP of .295 in ’09. If he’s going to be an impact player, he needs to improve his work against right-handed pitchers, as his OPS is just .725 (compared to .831 vs southpaws). Dominguez projects to be an average hitting third baseman in the Majors with a good glove.

4. Gaby Sanchez, 1B, Majors
DOB: September 1983 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 4th round – University of Miami
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

Already 26, Sanchez may have missed his window of opportunity to seize the starting first-base gig in Florida. Injuries and inconsistencies plagued him early in ’09, although he finished with solid overall numbers in triple-A: .290/.375/.478 in 314 at-bats. Like Morrison, Sanchez is not your typical slugger, although he has more present power than the younger prospect (.188 ISO in triple-A). His walk rate of 11.5% was actually his lowest rate in four seasons and his strikeout rate was a solid 13.7%. He’s not flashy but Sanchez could be a cheap first base option for a few years. He could also slide into a pinch-hit/utility infield role on a championship-caliber team, as he’s also seen some time at third base (but isn’t very good there).

5. Ryan Tucker, RHP, Triple-A
DOB: December 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 supplemental first round – California HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 91-96 mph fastball, change-up, slider

You’re not a Florida Marlins’ pitching prospect if you haven’t dealt with injuries, and Tucker got his prerequisite injury out of the way (hopefully) in ’09. He appeared in just six games. The right-hander’s woes came on the heels of a season that saw him make his MLB debut with 13 appearances. He showed his inexperience by allowing a FIP of 6.46 and his fastball was very ineffective, according to his Pitch Type Value score of -2.11 wFB/C. If he can sharpen his command, though, the 91-96 mph pitch could be a real weapon against MLB hitters. He’s spent much of his time pitching out of the rotation, but Tucker appears destined for the bullpen, where he can focus on a two-pitch mix.

6. Bryan Peterson, OF, Double-A
DOB: April 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2007 4th round – University of California-Irvine
MLB ETA: 40-Man Roster: Options:

I highlighted Petersen as a potential breakout candidate for ’09 but it didn’t happen for him. With that said, he still had a nice season in double-A and that breakout could still come. Overall, he hit .297/.368/.413 in 431 at-bats at double-A. Petersen maintained a solid walk rate at 11.4% and his strikeout rate continued to drop, bottoming out at 15.3%. His power output dropped too, though, and his ISO was just .116. He also struggled on the base paths and was caught 12 times in 25 attempts. If Petersen’s power does not improve (He hit 23 homers in ’08), he’ll likely end up as a fourth outfielder in the Reed Johnson mold. The loss of fellow outfield prospect John Raynor to Pittsburgh – during the Rule 5 draft – could help either Petersen or Scott Cousins see playing time in the Majors in 2010. Fun Fact: Petersen went to the same high school as Matt Dominguez (and former Red Sox outfielder Dwight Evans).

7. Scott Cousins, OF, Double-A
DOB: January 1985 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2006 3rd round – University of San Francisco
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

A flashier but less consistent version of Petersen, Cousins is also a left-handed hitter but, unlike Petersen, he struggled to hit southpaws (.226/.297/.383) and projects as more of a platoon player. Overall, he hit .263/.323/.448 in 482 at-bats at double-A. Cousins showed some pop with an ISO of .185 and he also stole 27 bases in 36 attempts. His walk rate was a little low, but respectable, at 8.0% and his strikeout rate was high at 22.0%. With 31 doubles, 11 triples and 12 homers, he does a little bit of everything.

8. Brad Hand, LHP, Low-A
DOB: March 1990 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 2nd round – Minnesota HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Hand slipped on a lot of prospect lists after his 2009 season and it’s not hard to understand why, but he still has a lot of potential. The southpaw was drafted out of Minnesota, and northern prospects are traditionally rawer than those that live in climates where they can play ball all year round. And he’s not a soft-tossing lefty carving up beer-league hitters with a mid-80s fastball and pinpoint control; his fastball has shown some modest zip at times. He gave up a lot of hits, with 130 allowed in 127.2 innings, but his 4.23 FIP was better than his 4.86 ERA. His walk rate was 4.65 BB/9 (and he also threw 22 wild pitches) but his strikeout rate was encouraging at 8.60 K/9. His ground-ball rate was just shy of 50%, so with better command he could see that improve. Hand had a foundational season and I look for him to start making a name for himself in 2010… I’m dying to use this headline: Brad… Give yourself a Hand. (That’s the Cistulli in me).

9. Isaac Galloway, OF, Low-A
DOB: October 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 8th round – California HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

I hummed and hawed about Galloway’s inclusion on the Top 10 list. I lean more heavily on stats that any other minor-league writer out there (Law, Goldstein, Callis, Sickels, etc.) so it was hard to justify Galloway as a Top 10 prospect on numbers alone, but his tools certainly make him a player to watch in a rather thin system (as far as depth goes). His wOBA was just .305 and his triple-slash line was an ugly .268/.293/.382 in 340 low-A at-bats (despite a .355 BABIP). Galloway, just 20, posted a sad walk rate at 3.4%, up from 2.0% in his debut in ’08. The ISO was just .119 and his strikeout rate was high at 26.2%. If the organization is smart, it will start Galloway out at low-A again in 2010 with a quick trigger finger to high-A if he shows significant improvement.

10. Jhan Marinez, RHP, High-A
DOB: August 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Marinez makes the cut thanks to his fastball, which can occasionally creep into the mid-90s. I would, though, like to see him improve on his ground-ball rate, which was just 39.5% in ’09. He deserves credit for reaching high-A in ’09, as he threw just 21.0 innings during the previous two seasons (both in rookie ball). Marinez’ walk rate needs to improve, as it was 4.19% in ’09 but he survived the control issues, in part, because of the .232 BABIP rate that he allowed. The majority of his command/control issues come against left-handed hitters, as he posted a walk rate of 5.40 BB/9 against them this past season. The organization seems to introduce a new hard-throwing reliever each season, so it will be interesting to see if Marinez can “stick” as a solid bullpen option for the future while holding off some other pitchers like Daniel Jennings, Tom Koehler, and Elih Villanueva.

Up Next: The Boston Red Sox

I want to be clear about my intentions in this series. Simply put, I believe that prospect evaluation has improved by a radical margin during the information era, and we’re doing it better than we ever have. But I believe that the type of analysis being done does inherently underrate players, and that we can always be better. The writers can be better, the farm directors can be better, the General Managers can be better. One of those steps, in my estimation, is giving sinkerball pitchers a different route of analysis. These are not players that follow a typical path of progression and improvement.

In this belief, on Tuesday I laid out my method for creating a sample of 22 sinkerballers that have made it to the Major Leagues, and succeeded enough to be causing 50% of their batters faced to hit the ball in the ground. I crunched the numbers on these players, and below, I believe their Minor League performance speaks for itself. If defense is beginning to matter more and more, than the way we understand pitchers that rely on defense needs to change. Here is my sample’s aggregate Minor League statistics (note: “Yrs” is the player seasons in the study, and “2009” was their aggregate 2009 Major League performance):

Level   Yrs   Age    ERA    H/9    K/9    BB/9   HR/9
Low-A   20    21.2   3.91   9.16   6.46   2.41   0.58
HighA   23    22.0   3.68   9.43   6.55   2.70   0.47
DoubA   35    23.5   3.76   8.97   6.73   2.96   0.59
TripA   44    25.8   4.01   9.26   6.27   2.97   0.82
2009    22    28.4   4.33   9.65   5.64   3.40   0.85

If nothing else, I am immediately struck by the uniformity of the numbers. Obviously, Major League hitters are responsible for the decline in strikeouts (which, unsurprisingly, leads to the small jump in H/9) and the increase of walks. The power that Minor League hitters are developing seems to come to fruition in Triple-A, and certainly sustains itself in the Major Leagues. Of course, we could micro-analyze the changes in peripherals all over the place. But at the end of the day, the difference in ERA between this group of sinkerballer pitchers in Low-A, and in their average age-28 season in the Major Leagues is 42 ERA points (and it’s even closer if you discount two players that were WAY too old for the Midwest League). I doubt there’s another subset of players that shows such consistency from the lowest rung of the minors to the bigs.

Best Undervalued Low-A Pitcher: Jamey Wright, Asheville. A first round pick in 1993, Wright made his debut the next season, and was one of the worst starting pitchers in the league. His 11.8 H/9 led to a 5.97 ERA, and would have been worse had he not allowed just six home runs in 143 innings. The next year, Wright was promoted, and though his strikeout and walk rates worsened, his H/9 dropped to 8.4, his ERA to 2.47, and he was all over the prospect map again.

Best Undervalued High-A Pitcher: Chris Sampson, Salem. A former shortstop, Sampson didn’t make his conversion to pitching until age 25, when he dominated Low-A hitters in Lexington (1.39 ERA in 84 IP). The next season, some began to question Sampson as his hit rate ballooned to 10.1. However, his walk rate had dropped, and the difference in strikeout and home run rates were insignificant. It was merely the Salem defense, as Sampson proved by dominating the Minor Leagues for the next two seasons. If history repeats itself, Sampson should have a better 2010 after a strange .342 BABIP last year.

Best Undervalued Double-A Pitcher: Chad Qualls, Round Rock. Baseball America did have Qualls as a top ten prospect following his 2002 first run at Double-A. But ninth just wasn’t high enough, as this was a guy that had a 0.5 HR/9, 7.8 K/9, and plenty of groundball outs. His 9.6 H/9 was the hold-up, and when it regulated itself the next season, BA moved him up in the Astros rankings. (Also note: They left him off the 2005 top ten list when his H/9 ballooned in Triple-A. The next year, he had a 3.28 ERA in the Astros bullpen.)

Best Undervalued Triple-A Pitcher: Clay Condrey, Everywhere. This guy pitched from 2002-2007 in the Triple-A, never sniffing more than 30 innings in a big league bullpen. But in 2003, when Condrey improved everything but his hit rate in his second go-around, the Padres should have known what they had. Instead, they sold him to the Phillies, who certainly got more than they paid for in 2008-2009.

So I want to repeat what I have been saying throughout this series: the wonderful thing about sinkerballer pitchers is that they just don’t change very much. Yes, they have to work on their out pitch to left-handed batters. And everything needs to be harnessed and tweaked. But what you see is what you get, and with every promotion, they simply strike a balance between the difficulty of facing harder hitters with the ease of better fielders. No one better personifies this notion than Doug Mathis:

Year   Level   H/9    ERA    K/9   BB/9   HR/9
2006   HighA   9.6    4.18   6.5   2.8    0.8
2007   DoubA   9.6    3.76   6.3   2.7    0.5
2008   TripA   8.6    3.35   6.0   2.3    1.2
2009     MLB   8.2    3.16   5.3   2.1    0.8

See what a good defense does? Imagine how much worse the Brandon McCarthy trade would have been for Texas if the White Sox insisted on Mathis instead of Jake Rasner. Note: Tomorrow’s article will be looking into the minors for the next crop of sinkerballers. After the jump, a little clarification on what I’m looking for from that group.

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“There is little if any difference among major-league pitchers in their ability to prevent hits on balls hit in the field of play.” If you’re reading this site, I imagine these are not foreign words to you, as I’m quoting from Voros McCracken’s first article outlining his famous DIPS theory. With that sentence, pitching evaluation was changed forever. But, I do find it interesting that McCracken limited himself to “major-league pitchers,” as his findings surely represent a universal truth in baseball.

Yesterday, I began my writing at FanGraphs with the assertion that right-handed sinker-throwing prospects are a breed inherently undervalued by the conventions of Minor League prospect coverage. They do not throw hard, they do not strike people out, and they do not possess a ceiling. These are not power pitchers that need to be coddled and have their command harnessed, because for a right-handed worm-burner to be drafted, some semblance of secondary skills must be present. This is merely a group of prospects that relies on their fielders’ ability “to prevent hits on balls hit in the field of play” more than any other type of prospect. Simply: they are underrated because they are most dependent on inexperienced fielders.

In the Major Leagues, fielders seem to routinely turn about 69% of balls in play into outs. Last year, I wrote an article that found the 2008 NCAA Division I average defensive efficiency to be 61.7%. This difference, I don’t have to tell you, is astronomical, and varies even further on a team-to-team basis. My article focused some on the notion that the “what have you done for me lately” aspect of scouting is susceptible to underrating a pitcher because his defense doesn’t get to balls and runs cross the plate. The response I heard from Major League executives seemed to validate this theory.

If scouts are making this mistake at the college level, then I have no qualms accusing prospect evaluators (big note here: myself included!) of doing the same with Minor League pitchers. To reinforce the notion that a hit in Peoria isn’t the same as a hit in Chicago, I calculated the Defensive Efficiency of each full season league for the past five years. I should note these figures will be slightly inflated, as it just seems impossible to weed out batted ball errors from the total figure. Still, that would only have an incremental effect on these numbers, which show that fielding gets better as you move up the ladder and get more experienced defenders behind you.

League               DER
Midwest              .6495
South Atlantic       .6461
California           .6348
Carolina             .6589
Florida State        .6566
Eastern              .6642
Southern             .6614
Texas                .6595
International        .6660
Pacific Coast        .6571

Obviously, the altitude and park effects present in the California and Pacific Coast Leagues skew their data a bit, but it’s clear that a pitcher should expect a better defense with each promotion in the Minor Leagues. And as such, the baseline H/9 that we judge pitch-to-contact pitchers by should be higher in the lower levels. If a sinkerball pitcher is getting his ground balls, regardless of the outcome, he is doing his job. A player with an identical percentage of ground balls in play at each level is simply going to have more success to the most advanced level he is assigned.

I’ll close out with an example. Rick Porcello is, without question, one of the most talented players I chose for my sinkerballers sampler. He’s a guy that no one really underrated, but he’s a prime example of the defensive difference between High-A and Major League Baseball, given that he made the jump in just one year. In 2008, Porcello posted a 3.83 FIP with the Lakeland Tigers. He had a ridiculous 64.1 groundball percentage, a 25.2 flyball percentage, and a 8.3 line drive percentage. Using David Appelman’s expected BABIP formula for pitchers, Porcello should have had a .252 BABIP. It was .280. In the Majors, he essentially gave up 10% of his groundballs and turned them into line drives, as he faced a hugely more talented group of hitters. His expected BABIP at the Major League level was a still respectable .298. But the Detroit Tigers defense gave him a .281 BABIP.

There were no significant differences in Porcello’s stuff between 2008 and 2009. But the reason he was able to make such a fascinating transition so seamlessly was because his pitching style is just as suited for the benefits of a Major League defense (as compared to a High-A one) as it is for the trade-off of facing an average High-A hitter compared to a Major League one. With the emergence of batted ball data in the Minor Leagues, the influx of support in DIPS theory and the importance of defense, using hit rates to evaluate sinkerballers should soon become a thing of the past. We’ll see where Major League Baseball teams have made this mistake when I analyze the Minor League commonalities of my sinkerballer sample group tomorrow.

General Manager: Michael Hill
Farm Director: Brian Chattin
Scouting Director: Stan Meek

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-slot signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st Round: Chad James, LHP, Oklahoma HS
2. Bryan Berglund, RHP, California HS
3. Marquise Cooper, OF, California HS

The draft spending was kept in check in ’09. The club still nabbed a couple of interesting arms in the first two rounds in James and Berglund. The former player saw his stock rise quite a bit during the prep season and his fastball jumped into the low 90s, while he already featured a good, if not plus, curveball. James did not make an appearance in pro ball after signing and he should begin his career in extended spring training and then, likely, rookie ball. Berglund also did not make his debut in ’09 and, like James, his stock rose quite a bit during his senior year of high school. His fastball crept into the low-90s, but it has yet to remain there with an consistency.

Cooper is a raw athlete, who played both baseball and football in high school. He hit .193/.317/.259 in 140 at-bats. Just 5’9”, power will likely never be his game (.057 ISO), but he does have speed to burn despite getting caught stealing four times in 10 attempts.

2008 1st Round: Kyle Skipworth, C, California high school
2. Brad Hand, LHP, Minnesota HS
3. Edgar Olmos, LHP, California HS
8x – Isaac Galloway, OF, California HS

Skipworth has been a disappointment. He hit just .208/.263/.348 for an ugly wOBA of .278 in 264 at-bats in low-A ball in ’09. His strikeout rate was an alarming 34.5%. The catcher also threw out just 20% of base runners. The good news: He’s still just 19.

Hand had a nice debut but he struggled a bit in his first full season by allowing 130 hits in 127.2 innings. His walk rate also jumped to 4.65 BB/9. On the positive side, he posted a good strikeout rate at 8.60 K/9 and his ground-ball rate was just shy of 50%. Injuries have prevented Olmos from realizing his potential. The 19 year old has appeared in just four starts since signing in ’08. In those 10.2 innings, though, he’s allowed just six hits with 14 strikeouts.

Galloway sneaks onto the Top 10 list due to his potential and an overall lack of depth in the system. Daniel Jennings (9th round) could prove to be a useful bullpen arm and he reached double-A in ’09.

2007 1st Round: Matt Dominguez, 3B, California high school
2. Mike Stanton, OF, California HS
3. Jameson Smith, C, California CC

The club scored some good value in this draft with both Dominguez and Stanton showing up on the Top 10 list. Fourth rounder Bryan Petersen, an outfielder, also made the list. Smith reached high-A in ’09 but he hit just .243/.333/.318 in 148 at-bats. He has shown little power (.074 ISO) and his strikeout rate is still too high despite hitting a career low this past season of 21.6%.

2006 1st Round: Brett Sinkbeil, RHP, Missouri State
1S. Chris Coghlan, IF/OF, Mississippi
2. Tom Hickman, OF, Georgia HS
3. Torre Langley, C, Georgia HS
3. Scott Cousins, OF, San Francisco

Sinkbeil has been a disappointment and still posted a 6.15 ERA in ’09 despite moving to the bullpen in triple-A. He allowed 106 hits in 82.0 innings of work. He also had a walk rate of 4.83 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 5.60 K/9. On the plus side, the club made up for that pick with the addition of Coghlan, the National League’s Rookie of the Year. Eventually, though, he’ll under-perform for a left-fielder and is much better suited to second base once the club can shed Dan Uggla’s contract.

Cousins has out-performed both players and squeaked onto the Top 10 list.

Hickman has yet to show much life with the bat, mainly due to his perennial +30% strikeout rate. Langley hit just .223/.261/.391 in 229 low-A at-bats in ’09 and did himself no favors with a walk rate of 4.6%. If he can show a little more control, Jay Buente (14th round) could see some time in middle relief in the Majors, thanks to his good strikeout rate (8.26 K/9) and ground-ball rate (54%). He has a low-90s fastball and a splitter.

Up Next: The Florida Marlins Top 10 Prospects