With the recent trade (likely to be finalized today) of Seattle’s Brandon Morrow for Toronto’s Brandon League and a prospect, a lot of people have been weighing in with their opinions of the trade. As someone who follows the Jays’ minor league system very closely, I thought I’d chime in with my thoughts on Johermyn Chavez, the young Venezuelan outfielder who is said to be the “prospect.” Most of the people who have commented on his status have looked at the “glass-half-empty.”

Chavez’s first name is pronounced: Yo-Her-Min, and his name was originally spelled “Yohermyn” when he first came stateside, but he personally spells it with a “J.” He’s played mostly left field in his career, in deference to fellow outfield prospect Moises Sierra, who has perhaps the strongest outfield arm in the minors (at least Top 3). Chavez, himself, also has a plus throwing arm and profiles as a solid right fielder with average range. Due to his inexperience, at just 20 years of age, he does make too many gaffs in the field (He needs to take better routes to the ball) and on his throws.

At the plate, Chavez had a solid season in low-A ball. A lot of people have pointed to the fact that he was repeating the level, but Chavez was just 19 in his first attempt at the league, so a mulligan is well deserved. Here are his triple-slash lines from his two low-A seasons:

’08 – .211/.272/.323 in 402 at-bats
’09 – .283/.346/.474 in 508 at-bats

It’s definitely a big difference with his OPS jumping from .595 to .821 and a wOBA that rises almost .100 points from .277 to .371. His ISO also rose from .112 to .191 and Chavez finished second in the league (known for surpressing home-run totals) with 21 homers. He was behind only Kyle Russell, a 23-year-old former college star. Chavez finished tied with the Cubs’ Kyler Burke for third in RBI with 89. The Lansing team as a whole was middle-of-the-pack in the league when it came to offense (runs scored, RBI, OPS). According to Baseball America, the average triple-slash line for the Midwest League in ’09 was .256/.329/.373 and the average ISO was just .119. The average age of players in low-A ball was 21.6.

There are definitely some rough edges to the youngster’s game. He can be overly aggressive at the plate, and swing at too many “pitcher’s pitches.” His walk rate was 7.3%, which isn’t terrible, but we’d definitely prefer to see it at the 10.2% he reached in rookie ball in 2007, if not higher. His power output makes a high strikeout rate more palatable but his rate of 27% needs to come down if he’s going to hit more consistently at the upper levels of the minors – and in the Majors (His .351 BABIP helped out this season).

Chavez has also shown some speed on the base paths, although he has filled out quite a bit and now checks in at 6’3” 220 lbs. A few years ago, he weighed 180, so he’s added a lot of muscle. He needs to improve his base running a bit. Over the past two seasons, he’s stolen 19 base but he’s been caught 11 times.

By reading other Websites, such as USSmariner, it’s clear that a lot of people were hoping for a more MLB-ready prospect like right-hander Zach Stewart, or infielder Brett Wallace. They are certainly more desirable prospects at this point, so I understand the disappointment that many felt when it was announced the prospect was going to be a player in the low minors.

However, Chavez was certainly one of the Top 10 prospects (in a weaker system) that I had hoped would not be included in a trade, but he was in the latter half of the list. The outfielder originally signed his first pro contract at the age of 16 in 2005. He’s come a long way since then, and it certainly appears as though the Mariners organization acquired a diamond in the rough.

General Manager: Brian Cashman
Farm Director: Pat Roessler
Scouting Director: Damon Oppenheimer

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

The Yankees organization has some pretty good depth in the system, but it’s a little shy on impact players (at least compared to years past). The top of the list looks good with a couple of catchers, and then we see some raw, promising arms. Things, though, start to get murky at No. 6 and beyond as we start to rate relievers and very raw players.

*A rumored trade with Atlanta was announced this morning with Javier Vazquez coming back to New York for Melky Cabrera, as well as two Top 10 prospects: Michael Dunn and Arodys Vizcaino. Once it’s 100% confirmed, I’ll update the list with a couple new Top 10 prospects.

1. Jesus Montero, C/DH, Double-A
DOB: November 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

The cream of the Yankees system, Montero would probably be the top catching prospect in the entire Majors if he didn’t possess the defensive skills of a future designated hitter. His potential at the plate, though, is just massive. At the age of just 19, Montero hit .356/.406/.583 in 180 high-A at-bats in ’09. Moved up to double-A as a teenager, he hit .317/.370/.539 in 167 at-bats. His .200+ ISO at each level suggests massive power. Montero also controls the strike zone very well for such a young hitter and he struck out just 12.6% of the time in double-A. His walk rate was also reasonable at 7.7%, although there is room for improvement as he matures as a hitter. He did miss some time due to injury. The sky is the limit for Montero and his bat would play anywhere on the field.

2. Austin Romine, C, High-A
DOB: November 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 2nd round – California HS
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

With Montero ticketed for another position, Romine is the club’s catcher of the future. The 21-year-old backstop had an OK offensive season in ’09 by hitting .276/.322/.441 in 442 at-bats. He kept his strikeout rate below 20% at 17.6% and showed improved power with his ISO rising from .138 in ’08 to .165 in ’09. Romine’s walk rate was a little lower than you’d like (6.2 BB%) but he’s still young and has time to improve that area of his game. A good athlete, the right-handed hitter stole 11 bases but was caught five times. After a strong performance in April-July, Romine struggled a bit in August and September but he may have run out of steam. His older brother, Andrew Romine, plays in the Angels system.

3. Zach McAllister, RHP, Double-A
DOB: December 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 3rd round – Illinois HS
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

McAllister just keeps getting better. The 22-year-old reached double-A in ’09 and posted a 3.03 FIP in 22 starts. He allowed 98 hits and just four homers (0.30 HR/9) in 121.0 innings. McAllister typically posts a 50+% ground-ball rate but it slipped to 47.4% in ’09. He handled left-handed and right-handed batters equally well in terms of batting average (.234), but he showed better control against right-handers (1.17 to 3.79 BB/9) and a better strikeout ability against left-handers (8.03 to 5.55 K/9). At worst, he should settle in as a No. 3 starter in the Majors if he can stay healthy.

4. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Short-Season
DOB: November 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-95 mph, plus curveball, change-up

Vizcaino had a very impressive season as a teenager in short-season ball. He missed a lot of bats with a strikeout rate of 11.06 K/9 and he kept the walks in check at 3.19 BB/9. In 42.1 innings, Vizcaino allowed just 34 hits and two homers (0.43 HR/9). His ground-ball rate improved 10% over his debut season in ’08 to 48%, which is a positive trend that will hopefully continue in 2010. If he reaches his potential, Vizcaino has the stuff to be a front-line starter… but he’s also a ways away from the Majors.

5. Manny Banuelos, LHP, High-A
DOB: March 1991 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 non-drafted international free agent (Mexico)
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 87-92 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

A young, inexperienced southpaw, Banuelos exceeded expectations in ’09 and even received a one-game taste of life in high-A ball. Spending the majority of the year in low-A, the Mexico native allowed just 88 hits in 108.0 innings of work. He showed solid control with a walk rate of 2.33 BB/9 and a nice strikeout rate at 8.67 K/9. He also allowed just three homers (0.33 HR/9) despite a modest ground-ball rate of 43.4%. Banuelos has had little trouble in pro ball so far, but there are those that doubt his ability to remain a starter because of his small frame. He could reach double-A in 2010 as a 19-year-old.

6. Michael Dunn, LHP, Majors
DOB: May 1985 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2004 33rd round – Austin Peay State University
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-94 mph fastball, plus slider, change-up

The trade of Phil Coke (to the Tigers in the Curtis Granderson deal) suggests that the club is comfortable relying on Dunn in 2010, if a veteran arm cannot be found on the free-agent landscape. A former starter, Dunn found consistency in the bullpen and reached the Majors in ’09 for the first time in his career. The southpaw still needs to work on his control, though, after posting a walk rate of 5.40 (53.1 IP) at double-A, 6.30 BB/9 (20.0 IP) at triple-A, and by allowing five walks in four MLB innings. Aside from his small-sample size in the Majors, Dunn has done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park (0.51 HR/9 in double-A). If he can improve his control and induce even a few more ground-ball (his GB rate sits around 40%) then Dunn’s stuff is good enough to work late in games.

7. Mark Melancon, RHP, Majors
DOB: March 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 9th round – University of Arizona
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 88-94 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Melancon was ready for a full-time role in New York in ’09 but the club’s pitching depth kept him as an injury fill-in, so he appeared in just 13 games at the MLB level in ’09. He spent the rest of his time making 32 appearances in triple-A, where he allowed just 37 hits in 53 innings. Melancon also flashed above-average control with a walk rate of 1.87 BB/9. His solid control deserted him in the Majors, though, and he walked 10 batters in 16.1 innings. A regular role in 2010 might help him find his groove in the Majors. He looks like a future set-up man at the MLB level, although he could eventually see some save opportunities, as well.

8. Corban Joseph, 2B, Low-A
DOB: October 1988 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 4th round – Tennessee HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

The biggest knock on Joseph is his defense. It’s not terrible, but he projects better at third base than second, which is not a good thing because his bat profiles better at second base. In other words, if he can stick at second, then he deserves to be on this list; if he ends up moving to third on a full-time basis, then he’ll fall off. In ’09, he hit .300/.381/.418 in 380 at-bats. His ISO of .118 definitely won’t play at third base. He stole eight bases but was caught five times, so he needs to improve his base running a bit if he’s going to have an impact on the base paths. Joseph’s walk rate was solid at 11.4% and it was nice to see him keep the strikeout rate below 20% at 16.1%. His offensive profile is solid, but unspectacular. On a club like the Yankees, he’s probably a future utility player, but if he continues to develop he could end up playing regularly for a second-tier club if he shows enough at second base.

9. Kevin De Leon, OF, Rookie
DOB: October 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2014 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

This might be a high ranking for some, but let’s dream on De Leon, who was given a $1.1 million contract to sign. His first taste of pro ball came in the Dominican Summer League in ’08 and he moved stateside in ’09. At the rookie ball level, the raw outfielder hit .269/.330/.438 in 201 at-bats. His walk rate was pretty reasonable for a young Latin player at 7.4 BB% but his strikeout rate was a little scary at 30.3%. De Leon does have some power, though, and his ISO of .169 was encouraging. He stole five bases in six tries, so he’ll hopefully run a little more in 2010. No matter how you slice it, a .361 wOBA is nice for a teenager making his North American debut. Defensively, his arm is strong enough to play right field.

10. Andrew Brackman, RHP, Low-A
DOB: December 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – North Carolina State University
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 88-95 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Almost against my better judgment, Brackman sneaks onto the back-end of the Top 10 list, mainly due to the fact that the list is somewhat bare with excluding ’09 draft picks (Slade Heathcott) and international signees (catcher Gary Sanchez). You cannot argue with the potential that Brackman has, but the numbers in low-A ball were pretty nasty, especially for a 24-year-old former college hurler. With that said, the right-hander deserves a mulligan due to the Tommy John surgery he had after signing. The positives from ’09: a ground-ball rate just shy of 50%, a strikeout rate of 8.69 K/9, and just eight homers allowed (0.68 HR/9). The negatives to Brackman’s ’09 season: 6.41 BB/9, 4.66 FIP, 26 wild pitches. He needs a good showing in 2010 for people to keep believing in him.

Up Next: The New York Mets

General Manager: Brian Cashman
Farm Director: Pat Roessler
Scouting Director: Damon Oppenheimer

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-draft signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st Round: Slade Heathcott, OF, Texas HS
2. J.R. Murphy, C, Florida HS
3. None
5x – Caleb Cotham, RHP, Vanderbilt
12x – Brett Gerritse, RHP, California HS
14x – Graham Stoneburner, RHP, Clemson
16x – Bryan Mitchell, RHP, North Carolina
44x – Evan DeLuca, LHP, New Jersey HS

Unfazed by make-up questions surrounding Heathcott, the organization nabbed him based on his offensive potential. He appeared in just three games after signing. Murphy appeared in nine games but got off to a fast start and hit .333. Cotham made three appearances after signing. Gerritse had an impressive debut in six games in rookie ball. Stoneburner pitched just one inning after coming to terms. Mitchell and DeLuca did not pitch in ’09 after signing. In other words, we’re really going to have to wait until 2010 to see how this draft class is looking… although starting pitchers Adam Warren (4th round) and Sean Black (7th) got off to stellar starts in low-A with FIPs of 2.19 and 2.96, respectively.

2008 1st Round: Gerrit Cole, RHP, California HS (Did not sign)
1S. Jeremy Bleich, LHP, Stanford
2. Scott Bittle, RHP, Mississippi (Did not sign)
3. David Adams, 2B, Virginia
6x – Brett Marshall, RHP, Texas HS
7x – Kyle Higashioka, C, California HS
9x – Michael O’Brien, RHP, Virginia HS
10x – D.J. Mitchell, RHP, Clemson
15x – Matt Richardson, RHP, Florida HS
27x – Garrison Lassiter, SS, North Carolina HS

This was not a pretty draft for the organization, and losing its first and second round picks really hurt. Bleich has some potential but the ceiling is lower than what you’d want from a supplemental first round pick. Adams has flashed a nice stick. He split ’09 between low-A and high-A and his power really came on in the second half of the year when his ISO rose from .104 to .216. That huge increase, though, could have been a fluke but we’ll know more in 2010.

Marshall was one of my favorite picks from this draft but he had a bit of a rough ’09 season in low-A ball. He allowed 98 hits in 87.1 innings and his strikeout rate was low at just 6.18 K/9. His walk rate, though, was OK at 3.81 BB/9, based on his experience level and his FIP of 4.45 was much better than his ERA of 5.56. Keep an eye on Higashioka in 2010. He tends to get lost on the catching depth chart in the organization, but he has flashed some potential. Higashioka has a nice rates at the plate (10.7 BB%, 14.3 K%). His overall numbers have been plagued by low BABIPs (.288 in ’09), which tend to haunt slow-footed catchers.

Speaking of crazy ERA/FIP differences… check out O’Brien, who has some really bad luck when the ball goes into play. His ERA was 5.09 at rookie ball in ’09 but his FIP was just 2.29. He showed solid control for a 19 year old at 1.76 BB/9 and a good strikeout rate at 8.61 K/9. He’s not overpowering, though, and his 39.7% ground-ball rate is a little worrisome. A former two-way college player, Mitchell is still raw on the mound. Despite his inexperience, Mitchell posted an impressive ground-ball rate at 62% and allowed just two homers. Many project him as a future reliever, but he showed good durability in ’09 with 150 innings pitched. His lefty/righty batting-average splits show some need for improvement: .287/.203.

Richardson is still quite raw and spent time the ’09 season in extended spring training and short-season ball. Lassiter is also raw and he spent much of the year in low-A ball. Pat Venditte (20th round) has the potential to make the Majors as a middle reliever who can throw both right- and left-handed. The club also drafted Chris Dwyer (36th round) but he went to Clemson University and was signed by the Royals in the fourth round for $1.45 million as a rare draft-eligible college freshman.

2007 1st Round: Andrew Brackman, RHP, North Carolina State
2. Austin Romine, C, California HS
3. Ryan Pope, RHP, Savannah College of Art/Design
4x – Brad Suttle, 3B, Texas
6x – Richard ‘Chase’ Weems, Georgia HS
8x – Taylor Grote, OF, Texas HS
10x – Carmen Angelini, Louisiana HS

What to make of Brackman? Well… it’s been said many times and really nothing has changed: He’s a huge talent, but a massive question mark due to healthy and overall rawness on the mound. The Yankees organization, though, has the money and the depth to be patient.

Romine is one of my personal favorite prospects in the system. Defensively, he’s solid and there is no question that he can remain behind the dish. I also think his bat will play as a regular backstop. He’s on the Top 10, which we’ll see tomorrow.

Pope = good control but modest stuff. He reached double-A in ’09 and allowed 155 hits in 141.1 innings or work. His walk rate was solid at 2.17 BB/9 but he didn’t miss many bats with a strikeout rate at 6.75 K/9. His FIP over the past two seasons has been much better than his ERA; In ’09 his FIP was 3.24, compared to his ERA at 4.78. It’s a little disconcerting that his ground-ball rate keeps dropping as he rises through the minors and it bottomed out at 39.9% this past season. He’s likely a middle reliever in the Majors.

Suttle missed the entire ’09 after shoulder surgery (his second his being drafted) and it remains to be seen what affect that will have on his play in the field. Weems was another nice pick but he was flipped to Cincinnati in another trade. The Yankees club still has perhaps the most impressive catching depth in the Majors. Weems needs to cut down on his whiff rate (+30% in his career). Grote has yet to hit above .240 and his career strikeout rate is also above 30%, which is not good for a player that has yet to post an ISO rate above .100. Angelini did not get his batting average above .200 this past season. It was a bad year for over-slot deals.

Infielder Brandon Laird (27th round) has shown some potential. Even if he makes the Majors as a bench player, he would still represent great value as a late-round pick. Chris Carpenter would have been a great signing in the 18th round. He went to the Cubs in the third round of the ’08 draft. The club also drafted right-handed reliever Drew Storen (34th round), who went 10th overall to the Nationals in ’09. Outfielder Eric Thames (39th round) went to the Jays in ’08 and has flashed hitting skills to put himself in the Top 10, if not for injury woes.

2006 1st Round: Ian Kennedy, RHP, Southern California
1S. Joba Chamberlain, RHP, Nebraska
2. None
3. Zach McAllister, RHP, Illinois HS
4x – Colin Curtis, OF, Arizona State
8x – Dellin Betances, RHP, New York HS
9x – Mark Melancon, RHP, Arizona
17x – David Robertson, RHP, Alabama

A lot of people questioned New York’s decision to give Kennedy big money, as he appears to have peaked in high school. However, general manager Brian Cashman did a nice job of using him as trading chip by flipping him to the Arizona Diamondbacks – along with outfielder Austin Jackson heading to the Tigers – for Curtis Granderson (perhaps my favorite deal of the off-season, so far). Kennedy’s stuff was a little short for the power American League East, but he could very well thrive in the National League… and the deal could end up working out better for all three teams than many think. Cashman is a smart deal-maker, when he gets the opportunity.

The club made up for the Kennedy signing (not that it was a huge blunder) by nabbing Chamberlain in the supplemental round. A lot of teams passed on the big right-hander because of his injury history as an amateur, and that has continued to haunt him in the pros, too, but he’s also shown flashes of brilliance. With that said, 2010 should be a big season for him as the club should decide once and for all where he belongs: the starting rotation or the bullpen. Betances could have received consideration for the Top 10 if he had not required Tommy John surgery.

McAllister was a nice third-round choice and we’ll see him tomorrow on the Top 10 list, along with right-handed reliever Melancon. Robertson, another right-hander reliever, is technically is no longer eligible as a “rookie” due to service time, despite the face he has yet to exceed the 50 IP mark at the MLB level. The club really improved its pitching depth with this draft. Curtis split the ’09 season between double-A and triple-A and his numbers were so-so, mainly based on a low BABIP at the triple-A level. Don’t be surprised if he becomes a useful fourth or fifth outfielder at the MLB level.

George Kontos (5th round) has shown flashes of potential. Daniel McCutchen (13th round) was used as trading chip in the ’08 Xavier Nady/Damaso Marte trade with Pittsburgh.

Up Next: The New York Yankees Top 10 Prospects

Whew. Over the past month we’ve been taking a look at the top prospects for every MLB organization in the AL and NL Central Leagues, as well as 2006-09 draft reviews for each team. If you missed your club’s Top 10 prospects lists, the link to each article is provided for you below. We have also included an updated Detroit Top 10 list, as the previous list was written prior to the three-way deal with the Diamondbacks and the Yankees.

American League Central
Kansas City Royals | Top Prospect: Mike Montgomery, Starting Pitcher (A+)
Detroit Tigers | Top Prospect: Casey Crosby, Starting Pitcher (A-)
Chicago White Sox | Top Prospect: Tyler Flowers, Catcher (AAA)
Cleveland Indians | Top Prospect: Carlos Santana, Catcher (AA)
Minnesota Twins | Top Prospect: Aaron Hicks, Outfielder (A-)

National League Central
St. Louis Cardinals | Top Prospect: Lance Lynn, Starting Pitcher (AA)
Pittsburgh Pirates | Top Prospect: Pedro Alvarez, Third baseman (AA)
Cincinnati Reds | Top Prospect: Yonder Alonso, First baseman (AA)
Chicago Cubs | Top Prospect: Andrew Cashner, Starting Pitcher (AA)
Milwaukee Brewers | Top Prospect: Alcides Escobar, Shortstop (MLB)
Houston Astros | Top Prospect: Jason Castro, Catcher (AA)

Tigers Top 10 (Updated)
1. Casey Crosby, LHP, Low-A
2. Austin Jackson, OF, Triple-A
3. Daniel Schlereth, LHP, MLB
4. Ryan Strieby, 1B, Double-A
5. Alex Avila, C, MLB
6. Scott Sizemore, 2B, Triple-A
7. Wilken Ramirez, OF, MLB
8. Robbie Weinhardt, RHP, Double-A
9. Cody Satterwhite, RHP, Double-A
10. Brennan Boesch, OF, Double-A

The Fallen:
11. Alfredo Figaro, RHP, Majors
12. Luis Marte, RHP, Triple-A

Up Next: The AL and NL East Top 10 lists

General Manager: Ed Wade
Farm Director: Tal Smith
Scouting Director: Bobby Heck

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

What a change. After being one of the absolute worst systems in all of baseball for a few years, we’re finally seeing a light at the end of the tunnel. There is one note of caution to be had with the prospects in the system, though. Having a minor-league affiliate in Lancaster (High-A) means that many offensive prospects’ numbers will be inflated (see Koby Clemens) by playing there, while pitchers’ numbers will be skewed negatively. That extreme hitter’s park makes judging prospects all that much harder.

1. Jason Castro, C, Double-A
DOB: June 1987 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – Stanford University
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

With the re-emergence of J.R. Towles, an underrated player, and Castro’s rapid development, the organization could have a very nice problem, and in short order. The problem could be solved quite easily, though, with a platoon of the two catchers. Eventually, Castro’s bat will probably justify more at-bats as he’s hung in quite well against southpaws in pro ball (albeit in a rather small sample size). Overall in ’09, Castro hit .293/.362/.385 in 239 double-A at-bats. He began the year in high-A ball and got a lot of people excited with a .208 ISO, but that was likely the result of playing in Lancaster. His ISO rate dropped to .092 in double-A and it was just .109 in ’08. Even so, he projects to be an above-average offensive catcher. He threw out 59% of base runners attempting to steal against him in high-A, but that number dropped to 28% after his promotion.

2. Jordan Lyles, RHP, Low-A
DOB: October 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 supplemental first round – South Carolina HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-92 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

The teen-aged Lyles had an excellent season in low-A ball with a FIP of just 2.42. His strikeout rate of 10.39 K/9 was also impressive and his walk rate of 2.36 BB/9 was just as encouraging. The 44% ground-ball rate was OK and he did a nice job of keeping balls in the park with just five homers allowed (0.31 HR/9). Overall, Lyles allowed 134 hits in 144.2 innings. He was particularly effective against left-handed hitters and he posted a strikeout rate of 11.55 K/9 with just one homer allowed in 55.1 innings. The move up to Lancaster will be a huge challenge for the youngster, and his mental toughness will likely be challenged.

3. Chia-Jen Lo, RHP, Double-A
DOB: April 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 non-drafted international free agent (Taiwan)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, plus slider, change-up, splitter

The organization does not deal in the international market as much as it used to, but the club has received good value from some of its choices, such as Lo and Gervacio. Lo reached double-A in his North American debut and could help out in the Houston bullpen in 2010. The right-hander began the year in high-A and he allowed just 10 hits in 25.1 innings. He overpowered hitters and had a strikeout rate of 12.79 K/9. Lo, 23, will need to clean up his control after posting a walk rate of 4.62 BB/9 in both high-A and double-A. In 39.0 double-A innings, he gave up just one homer.

4. Ross Seaton, RHP, Low-A
DOB: September 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Texas HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Seaton was a highly-regarded amateur who fell to the Astros in the third round due to signability concerns (He was committed to the Tulane University). His first full pro season was modest. He posted a 4.08 FIP in low-A and allowed 137 hits in 136.2 innings of work. Seaton showed solid control with a rate of 2.57 BB/9, but his strikeout rate was just 5.80 K/9 and his stuff is better than that. He needs to learn to set up hitters better, and he needs to improve the command of his breaking ball. Seaton will need to improve his ground-ball rate (40%) if he’s going to survive the trip to Lancaster.

5. Sammy Gervacio, RHP, Majors
DOB: January 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2002 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options:
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

With a strong showing in 21 MLB games in ’09, Gervacio likely earned himself a good shot at beginning the 2010 season in Houston’s bullpen. The right-hander posted a 2.62 FIP in 21 innings and allowed just 16 hits. His strikeout rate of 10.71 was impressive, as was his ground-ball rate of 57.4%. If he can keep those rates up, he could be a monster – as well as a future closer. Gervacio’s control has been respectable over the past few seasons and he posted a walk rate of 3.43 BB/9 in the Majors. Hitters clearly had trouble making contact with the reliever: His contact rate of 61% was almost 20% below league average, but he needs to throw more first-pitch strikes out of the bullpen (51.8%, league average was 58.2%).

6. Jonathan Gaston, OF, High-A
DOB: October 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 7th round – University of Arizona
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Just call him Mr. Lancaster. The outfielder came out of no where in ’09 to hit .278/.367/.598 with a .320 ISO but look at the splits before getting too excited. Gaston hit .309/.399/.695 at home in Lancaster and just .249/.339/.510 in the road. He needs to make some adjustments against southpaws after hitting just .228/.335/.443. He’s also going to have to improve upon his 31.7% strikeout rate. On the plus side, he showed good base running with 14 steals, 15 triples and 119 runs scored. His walk rate of 12.1% was also nice to see. Gaston definitely has some talent, but he’s not going to repeat his .410 wOBA season in double-A.

7. Jay Austin, OF, Low-A
DOB: August 1990 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 2nd round – Atlanta HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

The Astros drafted Austin knowing that he would require some patience, but he’s already making good on the investment. After posting a strikeout rate of 32.5% in his debut, Austin reduced it to 19.6% in low-A ball in ’09. His OPS also rose from .512 in ’08 to .680 this past season, with an overall line of .267/.320/.360. In 297 at-bats, the outfielder posted an ISO of just .093 so power is clearly not a part of his game right now. He stole 23 bases but was caught 13 times, so he needs to improve his reads (He was also caught six times in 20 tries in ’08).

8. T.J. Steele, OF, High-A
DOB: September 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 4th round – University of Arizona
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Drafted as a raw college project, Steele has benefited from crazy-high BABIPs of .400+ in each of his first two pro seasons. Overall in ’09, Steele hit .345/.385/.562 in 194 at-bats. His power output was positively affected from Lancaster, and he slugged .216. Injuries were a problem for Steele, as he appeared in just 50 games. He also needs to show more patience at the plate (4.4%) and use his speed on the base paths more effectively (eight steals in 14 tries… but he was hampered by hamstring issues). A healthy Steele should move up to double-A in 2010 where we’ll get a better feel for his abilities.

9. Brad Dydalewicz, LHP, Low-A
DOB: March 1990 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 8th round – Texas HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Dydalewicz shows a lot of potential and he had a nice first full season in the minors in ’09. The southpaw allowed just 93 hits in 110.0 innings, in part due to a low .273 BABIP. His walk rate was a little high at 4.17 BB/9 and his strikeout rate was low at 6.38 K/9. Dydalewicz did a nice job of limiting the home run (0.49 HR/9) and he had an impressive ground-ball rate at 54%. He’ll probably need to log quite a few innings before he’s MLB-ready, but the 19 year old has a nice ceiling if everything clicks.

10. Collin DeLome, OF, Double-A
DOB: December 1985 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2007 5th round – Lamar University
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

DeLome is another one of those raw, athletic college players that Houston just seems to love. He’s struggled to hit for average over the past two seasons, but his power has played really well. This past season, DeLome hit .255/.323/.465 with an ISO of .210 in 467 at-bats. His strikeout rate of 30.2% needs to be trimmed and he needs to clean up his base running after getting caught eight times in 23 tries. The left-handed hitter batted .225/.315/.432 against southpaws and .270/.331/.480 against right-handers. He could contribute in Houston in 2010.

Up Next: The New York Yankees

General Manager: Ed Wade
Farm Director: Tal Smith
Scouting Director: Bobby Heck

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-draft signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st Round: Jiovanni Mier, SS, California HS
2. Tanner Bushue, RHP, Illinois HS
3. Telvin Nash, OF, Georgia HS
3S. Jonathan Meyer, 3B, California HS

Mier had a nice debut season for the Astros. The shortstop slugged seven homers in 192 at-bats (.208 ISO) and also showed his speed with six triples. He stole 10 bases but was caught five times, so he needs to improve his base running. The 13.5% walk rate was also very impressive for a teenager hitter, but the strikeout rate of 23.4% was a little high. Even so, the organization will certainly take a wOBA of .385 from Mier.

Bushue had a solid intro to professional baseball in ’09 while making five starts. He showed solid control in the small sample size of 22.1 innings by posting a walk rate of 2.01 BB/9. Bushue also managed a strikeout rate of 7.66 K/9. With a ground-ball rate of 37.3%, the right-hander will want to try and keep the ball out of the air a little more, especially if he’s going to play in Minute Maid Park.

Nash struggled in his pro debut and hit just .218/.280/.324 in 142 at-bats. The outfielder swung-and-missed too much, with a strikeout rate of 31.7%. He showed a lot of raw power as an amateur but his ISO rate of .106 suggests he has a long way to go to tap into that home-run ability. Defensively, the former first baseman was used in left field and he made six errors in 19 games.

The club’s fourth prep pick in as many selections, Meyer also had a rough debut in rookie ball and he hit just .190/.301/.299 with a strikeout rate of 31.2% in 221 at-bats. On the plus side, he did walk at a rate of 14.0%. A relatively new switch-hitter, Meyer hit just .111/.298/.111 against left-handed pitching.

2008 1st Round: Jason Castro, C, Stanford
1S. Jordan Lyles, RHP, South Carolina HS
2. Jay Austin, OF, Georgia HS
3. Chase Davidson, 1B, Georgia HS (Did not sign)
3S. Ross Seaton, RHP, Texas HS
4x – T.J. Steele, OF, Arizona
8x – Brad Dydalewicz, LHP, Texas HS

The club had a nice draft haul in ’08 (See what can be done when you don’t punt your draft picks!) and six members of the Top 10 prospect list can be found in this draft: Castro, Lyles, Austin, Seaton, Steele, and Dydalewicz.

The club failed to sign third-rounder Davidson, who took his potent prep bat to the University of Georgia and hit .231/.291/.389 (108 at-bats) in his first taste of college ball. Unable to sign Davidson, the club did hand some extra cash to Steele, who was an extremely raw college player but with an immense ceiling.

2007 1st Round: Derek Dietrich, 3B, Cleveland HS (3rd round, Did not sign)
2. None
3. None

Ugh. This was a nasty, nasty draft. It actually makes the Blue Jays’ ’09 draft look good. Dietrich snubbed Houston for Georgia Tech and he hit .311/.426/.511 in 225 at-bats as a sophomore in ’09. The ultra-athletic Collin DeLome (5th round) just squeaked into the Top 10 list, based on his power/speed/defensive potential.

2006 1st Round: Max Sapp, C, Florida HS
2. Sergio Perez, RHP, Tampa
3. Nick Moresi, OF, Fresno State

Things have not gone well for Sapp. The club will just be happy to see him on the field in 2010, if he’s recovered from viral meningitis, chronic sinus disease and seizures.

Perez has hit a wall in his development. The right-hander allowed 167 hits in 142.1 innings at double-A in ’09 and his strikeout rate dropped to 4.55 K/9. Moresi’s batting average of .244 in 135 high-A at-bats in ’09 was a career high, which is obviously not a good sign. He moved up to double-A and hit just .208/.247/.388 in 183 at-bats with a strikeout rate of 28.4%.

Infielder Chris Johnson (4th round) and right-hander Bud Norris (6th round) were much better picks. The 25-year-old Johnson projects to be a solid utility or platoon player for Houston after hitting .281/.3232/.461 in triple-A. Norris contributed 55.2 innings in Houston in ’09 and should be a member of the starting rotation in 2010. Outfielder Tyler Henley was the club’s 50th round selection as a draft-eligible sophomore but he did not sign. He went much higher to the Cardinals in ’07 (8th round) and has the potential to be a solid big-league contributor.

Up Next: The Houston Astros Top 10 Prospects

General Manager: Doug Melvin
Farm Director: Reid Nichols
Scouting Director: Bruce Seid

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

The organization has three nice hitting prospects right at the top of the system – and all three are not that far away from helping out Milwaukee. In fact, both Escobar and Gamel could break camp with the big club in 2010. There are some arms on the Top 10, as well, but the majority of them are in A-ball and their ceilings are modest (No. 3-4 starters).

1. Alcides Escobar, SS, Majors
DOB: December 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2003 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

Escobar’s rookie status survived the ’09 season as he fell one at-bat short of being ineligible for the 2010 Rookie of the Year award. As it stands, he projects to be one of the better impact rookies in the year ahead, thanks to his solid bat and defensive skills at shortstop. This past season, Escobar hit .304/.333/.368 in 125 at-bats. He’s shown the ability to hit for a high average in the minors, but he sacrifices power and he posted an ISO of just .064 at the MLB level. The Venezuela native does have a fair bit of speed and he nabbed 42 bases in 52 attempts in 109 triple-A games in ’09 prior to his promotion. Escobar does need to be more patient at the plate, as he walked just 3.1% of the time in his debut, and his 6.9% at triple-A was his highest mark in four years. The trade of incumbent shortstop J.J. Hardy has cleared the way for Escobar to play everyday in 2010. He won’t provide the power that Hardy did, but the 23-year-old infielder will add an exciting element on the base paths.

2. Brett Lawrie, 2B, Double-A
DOB: January 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – British Columbia (Canada) HS
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

The club’s top pick from the ’08 draft, Lawrie has flashed a potent bat but serious questions remain about his defensive home. The club originally wanted to move the Canadian behind the plate, but he changed his mind and ended up back at second base, where his defense was not pretty. He’s not a big guy (5’11’) but Lawrie possesses some pop in his bat, as witnessed by his .180 ISO in his debut season of ’09. Despite not playing in his draft season (due to contract negotiations), Lawrie reached double-A in ’09 at the age of 19. At low-A ball, where he spent the majority of his season, the right-handed hitter batted .274/.348/.454 (.308 BABIP) in 423 plate appearances. He also stole 19 bases but was caught 11 times. If he can clean up his base running, Lawrie could develop into a 20-20 player.

3. Mat Gamel, 3B, Majors
DOB: July 1985 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2005 4th round – Chipola Junior College
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

The club had hoped for more from Gamel in ’09. Given a shot at everyday duty in the Majors, the third baseman hit just .242/.338/.422 in 148 plate appearances. He did show some pop with an ISO of .180, and he also did a nice job of getting on base with a walk rate of 12.3%. He had a lot of trouble making contact though, and posted an alarming whiff rate of 42.2%. In 75 triple-A games, Gamel struck out at a rate of 32.6%. He definitely needs to make more contact, especially considering that his power potential is good, not great. A high BABIP in the Majors of .377 helped to keep Gamel’s triple-slash line respectable. For a guy who was supposed to be near-MLB-ready in ’09, he still has a fair bit of work to do (His contact rate was 14% below the league average)… and we haven’t even discussed his defense, which is below-average at third base (although his range is not bad).

4. Zach Braddock, LHP, Double-A
DOB: August 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2005 18th round – Burlington County College
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

A former starter, Braddock moved to the bullpen in 2009 due to durability and injury concerns. Although his overall value takes a bit of a hit from the move, the southpaw thrived in the new role and posted some video-game-like numbers. With a FIP of 1.74 in 24.2 innings in high-A, Braddock then moved up to double-A where his FIP was 2.82. His strikeout rate at high-A was an eye-popping 14.59 K/9 and it remained strong in double-A at 12.64 K/9. He also showed solid control with a walk rate of 1.50 on the year. Normally strong against left-handed batters (.174 average, 11.54 K/9 in his career), Braddock was even better against right-handers in ’09 and held them to a .178 average with a strikeout rate of 14.73 K/9. On the downside, his 36.3% ground-ball rate needs to rise a bit to help with the gopher balls (1.15 HR/9 in double-A). Braddock isn’t overpowering, but he has a solid fastball-slider combo and good deception.

5. Jonathan Lucroy, C, Double-A
DOB: June 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 3rd round – U of Louisiana-Lafayette
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

A catching prospect with a solid offensive reputation, Lucroy had a nice year in ’09 despite suffering from a low BABIP at .299. Overall, his triple-slash line was .267/.380/.418 in 506 plate appearances. His BB/K rate of 1.18 (15.7 BB%) helped to offset the low batting average, and Lucroy also showed gap power with an ISO of .150 and 32 doubles. Defensively, he did a nice job of throwing out base runners (40%) but he’s still working on his receiving skills. The right-handed hitter has a good shot at being the club’s long-term answer behind the plate. The acquisitions of Gregg Zaun and George Kottaras will buy Lucroy some more development time.

6. Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Rookie
DOB: March 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 supplemental 1st round – Illinois HS
MLB ETA: Late-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, curveball, slider, change-up

One of the more advanced prep arms in the ’08 draft, the organization has been cautious with Odorizzi and he has spent the past two seasons in rookie ball. He had a solid year in ’09 by showing good control (1.72 BB/9) and the ability to miss his fair share of bats (8.23 K/9). He allowed a few too many hits – 55 in 47.0 innings – but he was hurt by a .367 BABIP. He did not get a lot of breaks in the field, either, and his ERA of 4.40 was much higher than his FIP of 2.90. Odorizzi should move up to low-A in 2010 and he has the ceiling of a solid No. 3 starter.

7. Cody Scarpetta, RHP, Low-A
DOB: August 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 11th round – Illinois HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

An ’08 draft pick, Scarpetta has posted solid minor-league numbers and he had a nice year in low-A ball. The right-hander allowed just 83 hits in 105 innings, while also posting a strikeout rate of 9.94 K/9. He needs to polish his control, though, as he had a walk rate of 4.71 BB/9. Scarpetta performed particularly well against left-handed hitters, who managed a batting average of just .197. He did struggle with his control in those situations, though, and posted a walk rate of 5.32 BB/9. The right-hander is raw, but he has the potential to develop into a No. 2 or 3 starter down the road.

8. Evan Anundsen, RHP, High-A
DOB: May 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 4th round – Colorado HS
MLB ETA: Late 2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 87-91 mph fastball, cutter, curveball, change-up

Anundsen is not flashy, but he gets the job done. The right-hander has a fringe-average fastball but he gets good sink on his pitches and he posted a ground-ball rate of 52% in ’09. In his first three seasons, he averaged a ground-ball rate around 60%, which is well above average. Anundsen, 22, allowed just 101 hits in 130.1 high-A innings in ’09 and he showed solid control with a walk rate of 2.83 BB/9. His strikeout rate was a career high of 8.15 K/9 and he allowed just two homers. Anundsen was aided by a low BABIP of .284. If he can maintain a healthy ground-ball rate in the upper minors, along with his good control, the Colorado native should make a nice No. 3 or 4 starter for the Brewers.

9. Wily Peralta, RHP, Low-A
DOB: May 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-95 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Peralta’s career has been slowed by injuries (Tommy John surgery caused him to miss all of ’07) but he’s still young and he posted solid numbers in ’09. The hard-throwing right-hander has a good fastball-slider combo, which allowed him to post a strikeout rate of 10.24 K/9 at low-A ball. He also allowed just 91 hits in 103.2 innings of work and did a nice job of keeping the ball in the yard with just five homers allowed (0.43 HR/9), thanks to a respectable ground-ball rate of 46%. The right-hander projects as a late-game reliever, but he made 15 starts in ’09, mainly to help him get added experience. Peralta is still working on his control/command and he posted a walk rate of 3.99 BB/9.

10. Angel Salome, C, Triple-A
DOB: June 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2004 5th round – New York HS
MLB ETA: Early-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

Salome lost his title of “Catcher of the Future” to Lucroy in ’09, but he still has a lot of potential. The catcher hit a solid .286/.334/.413 at triple-A but he hasn’t played more than 101 games in the past three seasons. At just 5’7”, durability has been a long-standing concern at Salome is probably a back-up catcher at the MLB level, if he wants to avoid the DL. Despite his size, the catcher has shown solid pop in the past, although he’s likely to provide more gap power at the MLB level. He’s a .300 minor league hitter, but he’s been helped by very high BABIPs, which is unusual for catchers. Defensively, Salome has a strong arm and he threw out 30% of base runners in ’09.

Up Next: The Houston Astros

General Manager: Doug Melvin
Farm Director: Reid Nichols
Scouting Director: Bruce Seid

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-draft signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st Round: Eric Arnett, RHP, Indiana
1S. Kentrail Davis, OF, Tennessee
1S. Kyle Heckathorn, RHP, Kennesaw State
2. Max Walla, OF, New Mexico HS
2. Cameron Garfield, C, California HS
3. Josh Prince, SS, Tulane
4x – Brooks Hall, RHP, South Carolina
5x – D’Vontrey Richardson, OF, Florida State
16x – Scooter Gennett, SS, Florida HS
15x – Del Howell, LHP, Alabama

The Milwaukee Brewers spent a lot of money on the draft with five picks before the third round and by agreeing to four over-slot deals but a lot of the players chosen are quite raw. The most advanced of the bunch, Arnett, signed and was started off slowly as one of the few top-drafted college players that began their careers in rookie ball. He posted a 3.63 FIP (4.41 ERA) in 34.2 innings. His control was off, as he posted a walk rate of 5.45 BB/9, but he struck out a lot of teenagers: 9.09 K/9. Truth be told, the numbers tell us very little based on the competition he faced, but the walks are definitely worrisome.

Davis did not play after signing, but he’s considered a solid hitter with some questions about his ability to remain in center field. If he moves to left, he may not have enough pop in his bat to be a regular. Heckathorn has one of the better fastballs in the entire draft class, but he’s never had a lot of success. His secondary stuff is below-average, although he occasionally flashes a good slider. Few people expect him to remain a starter. In his debut, he posted a 4.86 FIP (6.04 ERA) but showed solid control at 1.61 BB/9. His command was not as good, though, and he allowed four homers in 22.1 innings (1.61 HR/9) in rookie ball.

Coming out of a New Mexico high school, Walla had a pretty solid reputation given his limited exposure. Unfortunately, he struggled in his first taste of pro ball and hit just .199/.283/.280 in 186 rookie-ball at-bats. At the root of the problem: A strikeout rate of 44.1%. The left-handed hitter has good, raw power for his size (5’11”).

A solid defensive amateur catcher, Garfield made 16 errors behind the plate in rookie ball and threw out just 16% of runners attempting to steal. He had modest results at the plate and hit .248/.299/.353 with an ISO of .106 in 218 at-bats. His strikeout rate was high at 28.0% and his walk rate was low at 4.4%. The game will hopefully slow down for him in his first full season with some more seasoning in extended spring training.

Prince was another college prospect started off in rookie ball, where he appeared in 36 games. That level is typically below what top college players face in NCAA, so we’ll just cut to the numbers he posted after a promotion to low-A ball. Prince hit .221/.307/.287 in 122 at-bats. He showed solid patience at the plate (10.9 BB%) for a player whose game is built around speed. Overall on the year (in 67 games), the middle infielder stole 38 bases in 50 attempts (12 for 17 in low-A).

Hall, Richardson, and Gennett did not appear in a pro game after signing, so they will make their debuts in 2010. Howell appeared in just five games, including three starts in rookie ball. The left-hander allowed seven hits in 8.2 innings during those starts and showed solid control with just two walks.

2008 1st Round: Brett Lawrie, 2B, British Columbia HS
1S. Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Illinois HS
1S. Evan Frederickson, LHP, San Francisco
2. Seth Lintz, RHP, Tennessee HS
2. Cutter Dykstra, OF, California HS
2. Cody Adams, RHP, Southern Illinois
3. Logan Schafer, OF, Cal Poly
19x – Blake Billings, RHP, Alabama HS

The organization spent a lot of money during the ’08 draft, thanks to six picks before the third round. Both Lawrie and Odorizzi will appear on the club’s Top 10 list after having solid ’09 seasons, considering their age and inexperience.

A pitcher with a good fastball, Frederickson’s biggest issue is finding the plate after posting a walk rate of 7.58 BB/9 in 97.1 low-A innings. He has potential as a late-game reliever if he can harness his stuff. Lintz is a former prep pick that has the same issue as Frederickson: a lack of control. In 40.1 rookie ball innings in ’09, the right-hander tossed up a walk rate of 8.48 BB/9. He also had issue with the gopher ball (1.12 HR/9).

Dykstra had a down year. He hit .212/.310/.303 in 99 low-A at-bats and was sent back down to rookie ball for more seasoning, but managed a line of just .244/.332/.349 in 209 at-bats. The right-handed hitter shows good patience at the plate (11.4 BB% in rookie ball) but he needs to trim the strikeouts (23.9%).

For a college guy, Adams struggled in low-A ball and posted a walk rate of 5.15 BB/9 in 57.2 innings. On the plus side, he kept the ball in the yard and managed a 50% ground-ball rate. Billings had trouble in his second year of rookie ball and posted a walk rate of 5.79 BB/9, but he also struck out a good number of batters when he could find the plate (8.10 K/9). His 7.14 ERA was not quite as bad as it looked, considering his FIP came in at 4.79.

Value-wise, Schafer was the club’s best pick. He hit .313/.369/.446 in 457 high-A at-bats and played solid defense. He even received a seven-game trial in double-A. Schafer does need to improve his base running a bit after getting nabbed eight times in 25 tries.

2007 1st Round: Matt LaPorta, 1B, Florida
2. None
3. Jonathan Lucroy, C, Louisiana-Lafayette
44x – Shawn Zarraga, C/3B, Florida HS

LaPorta was a solid, albeit surprising, first pick for the organization. He was flipped to Cleveland in the C.C. Sabathia deal, which did not work out all that well for the organization, considering LaPorta is just scratching the surface of his big-league potential and the club received just half a season of the veteran pitcher. Lucroy has a good shot at the Majors in 2010 and could develop into the club’s No. 1 catcher.

Zarraga received big money for the 44th round, but he struggled in ’09. He showed good patience with a walk rate above 11%, but his strikeout rate was too high and his power was non-existant (0.30 ISO) in 140 rookie and low-A at-bats.

Right-hander Cody Scarpetta had a good ’09 season and will appear on the club’s Top 10 list.

Fourth-round Eric Farris has posted solid pro numbers. The second baseman stole 70 bases in 76 tries in high-A ball in ’09. He also hit .298/.341/.385 in 473 at-bats. He needs to walk more (5.8 BB%) but he does a nice job of limiting the strikeouts (9.7%).

Outfielder Caleb Gindl (5th round) is another player to keep an eye on. He hit .277/.363/.459 in 394 high-A at-bats and showed good power (.183) for his size (5’9”). He also stole 18 bases in 22 tries.

2006 1st Round: Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, Virginia HS
2. Brent Brewer, SS, Georgia HS
3. Cole Gillespie, OF, Oregon State
12x – Chad Robinson, RHP, Nevada HS
16x – R.J. Seidel, RHP, Wisconsin HS
19x – Lee Haydel, OF, Lousiana HS
31x – Rob Bryson, RHP, Delaware HS

First-rounder Jeffress has been a wasted talent due to alleged drug abuse. Despite a name that was made for the organization, Brewer has been an offensive disaster and he hit just .222/.288/.287 in 356 high-A at-bats in ’09. His strikeout rate of 30.6% is way too high for a player with an ISO rate of .065. Gillespie was flipped to Arizona in a trade this past season.

The club signed four key over-slot players, but none have truly broken out yet. Robinson has had injury problems and he’s pitched just 10 innings in the past two seasons. Seidel posted an ERA of more than 6.80 in two stops in ’09 and pitched just 57.0 innings. Bryson showed some real promise in ’08 but he was traded to Cleveland in the Sabathia deal and later had surgery on his shoulder.

Haydel is the club’s best hope for some return on its investment. The speed outfielder hit .275/.302/.340 in 491 at-bats in high-A. Unfortunately, he has yet to realize it’s a speedsters job to get on base and he walked just 3.3% of the time in ’09. He was successful in 39 of 49 steal attempts. Haydel is not likely to play everyday at the MLB level after struggling against southpaws with a line of .168/.242/.304.

Right-hander Evan Anundsen (4th round) has had good success in the low minors and he made the club’s Top 10 list.

Up Next: The Milwaukee Brewers Top 10 Prospects

General Manager: Bill Smith
Farm Director: Jim Rantz
Scouting Director: Deron Johnson

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

Aaron Hicks has the potential to be a massive star, if he can round his game into form. There are some other interesting bats in the upper levels of the Top 10 list, but they’re all raw in many facets of their games. There is some solid pitching in the latter half of the list, but their ceilings are limited. Minnesota drafted a number of power arms in ’09, which could help infuse some helium into the pitching side of the system. If all goes well in 2010, this organization could see a real rise in value from its prospects.

1. Aaron Hicks, OF, Low-A
DOB: October 1989 Bats: B Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – California HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Even after an outstanding debut in ’08, the organization was patient with Hicks, who began the ’09 season in extended spring training before moving up to low-A at mid-season. The outfielder hit a respectable .251/.353/.382 in 251 at-bats. With his speed, he should see an increase in his BABIP (.307) in 2010, which will help his overall numbers. He showed a willingness to take a free pass in his first season and that continued last year with a walk rate of 13.7%. Hicks’ strikeout rate was rather high at 21.9%, especially for someone who posted an ISO rate of just .131, but he has raw power. The outfielder did not run as much in ’09 and Hicks showed inexperience on the base paths by getting gunned down eight times in 18 attempts. He is a gifted fielder with a canon for an arm, that can hit the mid-to-high 90s on the mound (He was an amateur pitcher, as well as a hitter).

2. Wilson Ramos, C, Double-A
DOB: August 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2004 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

With reigning AL MVP Joe Mauer behind the dish, the last thing the Twins organization needs is a top prospect at the catching position. But the club certainly won’t complain, as Mauer could eventually move off the position to save his knees, or Ramos could end up being a valuable trade commodity. Either way, the Venezuela native isn’t far from being MLB-ready after hitting .317/.341/.454 in ’09 at double-A. Ramos has always hit for a solid average, but he’s also consistently produced healthy BABIPs, although many catchers suffer from chronically-low numbers in that area (due to a lack of foot speed). A catcher with raw power, he has nonetheless failed to post an ISO above .149 in his four-year career. Ramos also posted a walk rate of just 2.8% in ’09, so that obviously has to improve and he typically walks about 7.0%. His strikeout rate plummeted from 22.8% in ’08 to 11.2% in ’09, but injuries took a chunk out of his season and he had just 214 plate appearances. We’ll have to wait for 2010 to see if that was a true adjustment, or a small-sample-size blip. Behind the dish, Ramos has thrown out +40% in each of the past three seasons.

3. Danny Valencia, 3B, Triple-A
DOB: September 1984 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 19th round – University of Miami
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

It’s not often that you see a low-drafted college player end up on a team’s Top 10 list, but Valencia has shown a lot of improvements since turning pro. His .285 average in ’09 was a career low (split between double-A and triple-A), so the third baseman can certainly swing the bat. He hit .284/.373/.482 in 218 double-A at-bats, before moving up to triple-A, where he hit .286/.305/.454 in 269 at-bats. Valencia’s numbers took a hit after the promotion – especially his on-base percentage – because his walk rate plummeted from 12.4 to 2.9%. If we’re looking for a positive, though, his strikeout rate also dropped – from 18.3 to 13.8%. Valencia has shown some power in the minors, but he’s never broken the magic .200 ISO mark, which suggests he’ll probably top out in the 15-20 homer range in the Majors.

4. Angel Morales, OF, Low-A
DOB: November 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 3rd round – Puerto Rico HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

When he was drafted, Morales was about as raw as they come. But he also has some of the best power potential of any hitter in the minors; he just needs to make more contact. The Puerto Rican outfielder posted an otherworldly .322 ISO at rookie ball in ’08 and he followed that up with a rate of .189 at low-A in ’09. Despite the drop in power, Morales showed some improvements with his bat control, as his strikeout rate dropped from 39.3 to 27.7%. Overall, he hit .266/.329/.455 in 376 at-bats with 19 steals in 25 tries. He could eventually turn into a 20-20 (or even 30-30) player, once he sharpens his base running. Defensively, he has a strong arm and has played both center and right field in the minors. Considering that Morales is just scratching the surface of his potential and he posted a .361 wOBA in ’09 at the age of 19, it’s not hard to be excited about his future.

5. Ben Revere, OF, High-A
DOB: May 1988 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – Kentucky HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Revere has a fun skill set, and he’s certainly not your typical No. 1 draft pick. The outfielder is just 5’9” and he possesses little-to-no power (.058 ISO in ’09), which is a bit of an issue considering that it’s dropped with each promotion in the minors. There is some concern that Revere could have the bat knocked out of his hands at the MLB level. What he does do well, though, is hit for average (.311 is his career low) and steal bases (89 bases in the past two seasons, caught 30 times). Revere does a nice job of playing “small ball,” as he posted a BB/K rate of 1.18 in high-A ball this past season. He certainly does not have to worry about being platooned, with a career line against southpaws of .365/.425/.430. The speedy outfielder has a good defensive reputation in center, although his weak arm could eventually require a move to left field.

6. Joe Benson, OF, High-A
DOB: March 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 2nd round – Illinois HS
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

The first six prospects on the Top 10 list are all hitters, and Benson makes it four outfielders in the Top 6 picks, so it’s obvious where the organization’s strengths lie. The former prep football player has taken some time to develop his skills on the diamond, but the organization’s patience is starting to pay off. Benson spent the season in high-A ball where he hit .285/.414/.403 as a 21 year old. Injuries limited the outfielder to just 327 plate appearances. In the past, Benson has struggled to get his average above .260 so we must be cautious in our optimism considering that his ’09 BABIP was rather high at .380. The right-handed hitter showed improvements in his walk rate, which rose from 8.6 to 14.9%. His strikeout rate remained high, though, at 28.1% and it was not justifiable by the .118 ISO rate. Durability is also a concern with Benson, who has appeared in just 149 games over the past two minor league seasons.

7. Jeff Manship, RHP, Majors
DOB: January 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 14th round – Notre Dame
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, plus curveball, slider, change-up

Manship made his MLB debut in ’09 and proved to be a valuable arm for the club, as he made five starts and six relief appearances. Overall, he allowed a few too many hits with 39 in 31.2 innings, and he struggled with his control by posting an unusually-high walk rate of 4.26 BB/9. Manship began the season by making 13 starts in double-A before moving up to triple-A, where he started another eight games. With a four-pitch mix and a plus breaking ball, Manship has the potential to be a No. 4 starter for the Twins, but he’ll have to improve his high-80s fastball (-1.87 runs above average per 100). He also needs to throw a few more first-pitch strikes, as his rate of 52.7% was 6% below the league average.

8. David Bromberg, RHP, High-A
DOB: September 1987 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2005 32nd round – Santa Ana College
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 FB, CB, CH

Despite some inconsistent command of his pitches, Bromberg does a number of things well. He misses his fair share of bats (8.69 K/9 rate in high-A), he keeps the ball in the yard (0.35 HR/9) and he has never posted a FIP above 3.56. This past season, he also allowed just 125 hits in 153.1 innings. The right-hander limited left-handed batters to a .210 batting average and posted a strikeout rate of 9.36 against them. At 6’5”, 230 lbs, Bromberg has the chance to be a durable No. 3 or 4 starter for the Twins.

9. Carlos Gutierrez, RHP, Double-A
DOB: September 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – University of Miami
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Gutierrez’ future role – starter or reliever – is still up in the air. The right-hander is a ground-ball machine and he posted a worm-burning rate of 62.7% in ’09. If he can miss a few more bats and increase his strikeout rate from 5.08 K/9, then Gutierrez could certainly be something special. It was a tale of two seasons for the right-hander in ’09, as he posted a 3.55 FIP and 0.16 HR/9 rate in high-A, before moving up to double-A where his FIP was 5.02 and his home-run rate jumped to 1.03 HR/9. The main culprit for the FIP increase was Gutierrez’ BABIP, which went from an incredibly-low .229 to .326. Struggles with his command led to the increase in homers. Commanding his sinking fastball in 2010 will be key, as Gutierrez has yet to improve his secondary pitches to the point where they can miss bats on a regular basis (The slider has the most promise).

10. Tyler Robertson, LHP, High-A
DOB: December 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2006 3rd round – California HS
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, plus slider, change-up

Robertson sneaks on to the back-end of the Top 10 list thanks to his youthfulness (22), his handedness (southpaw) and his ground-ball tendencies (career 52.6%). The young left-hander needs to miss a few more bats, though, to truly take his game to the next level; he posted a strikeout rate of just 6.47 K/9 in high-A. He does a nice job of keeping the ball in the park and posted a home-run rate of 0.44 HR/9. Interestingly, his BABIP has decreased each season since his debut year of ’06, and it reached a low of .305 in ’09. Robertson has had some pretty extreme splits over the past two seasons. This past season, left-handed batters hit .200 with a strikeout rate of 7.33, compared to right-handers with a .300 average and 5.61 K/9 rate.

A special thanks to Aaron Gleeman of Circling The Bases for his insight.

Up Next: The Milwaukee Brewers

General Manager: Bill Smith
Farm Director: Jim Rantz
Scouting Director: Deron Johnson

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-draft signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st Round: Kyle Gibson, RHP, U of Missouri
1S. Matt Bashore, LHP, Indiana
2. Billy Bullock, RHP, Florida
3. Ben Tootle, RHP, Jacksonville State

If he can stay healthy, Gibson could be a real steal here for the Twins. The Missouri right-hander was set to go in the Top 10 picks before a stress fracture in his forearm caused him to slip to the Twins at the 22nd pick. He has solid control and good secondary pitches, which makes him a potential No. 2 starter, if everything clicks. Gibson’s pro debut will come in 2010 and he’ll likely begin the year in one of the Twins’ A-ball affiliates. Bashore is the second in a quartet of college pitchers taken with the club’s first four selections. He made just one relief appearance after being drafted, but the lefty features four pitches, including a splitter and a fastball that can touch 95 mph.

Bullock made 33 appearances after signing. He showed knock-out stuff in low-A by posting a strikeout rate of 11.96 K/9. Bullock did not allow a home run in his debut, despite a ground-ball rate of just 33.3%. He’ll need to get the ball down a little more consistently, as well as improve his control (4.10 BB/9) as he moves up the ladder. With a mid-90s fastball, though, and a durable frame, he has the potential to be a big-league closer. Tootle pitched just six innings after signing, but he was a nice grab in the third round. He has a mid-90s fastball but his secondary pitches are raw, so there’s talk of him turning to the bullpen in pro ball, despite pitching mainly out of the starting rotation in college. Like Bullock, there is potential there for as a late-game reliever.

The organization did its best Detroit Tigers impression, by stocking up on flame-throwing college arms. One of the best clubs at developing big-league pitchers, it will be interesting to see what the organization can do with the above hurlers.

2008 1st Round: Aaron Hicks, OF, California HS
1. Carlos Gutierrez, RHP, Miami
1S. Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane
2. Tyler Ladendorf, SS, Texas JC
3. Bobby Lanigan, RHP, Adelphi
6x – B.J. Hermsen, RHP, Iowa HS
30x – Mike Tonkin, RHP, California HS

Hicks remains an exciting selection at the top of this draft, and you’ll read more about him next week when the Top 10 list is posted. A surprise first-round pick, Gutierrez has been inconsistent but his ground-ball numbers were insane (62.7%) in 2009. Hunt was considered a solid pick in ’08, but a lot can change in a year. After posting a walk rate of 7.76 BB/9 in low-A ball in his debut, the right-hander’s control actually worsened and he walked 58 batters in 32.2 innings (for a walk rate of more than 15.50 BB/9). Maybe Rick Ankiel can teach Hunt how to hit?

Ladendorf was considered an offensive-minded middle infielder when he was drafted, but he’s struggled to hit above .230 since signing. He was sent to Oakland in a trade. Lanigan has been solid in pro ball. He spent most of ’09 in low-A ball, where he posted a 3.55 FIP and allowed 130 hits in 123.1 innings of work. The right-hander has solid control (2.12 BB/9) but his overall stuff (fastball velo, secondary pitches) is inconsistent.

A football injury scared most teams away, but the club took a gamble on Hermsen and it’s paid off, so far. The right-hander can reach the low-90s with his fastball, and he also gets more than his fair share of ground-ball outs (52.3%). He did not allow a home run in 53.1 innings this past season, and his walk rate was just 0.68 BB/9. However, Hermsen is not going to continue posting BABIPs of .228. Tonkin is an interesting sleeper prospect. He has good fastball velocity, and the former prep pick displays above-average control for his age (1.48 BB/9). Perhaps he throws a few too many strikes to the young, aggressive hitters in rookie ball, because he allowed 55 hits in 54.1 innings of work in ’09. If he can improve his breaking ball, watch out.

2007 1st Round: Ben Revere, OF, Kentucky HS
2. Danny Rams, C/1B, Florida HS
3. Angel Morales, OF, Puerto Rico HS

Revere continues to defy the odds and has made believers out of his doubters. He’s one of the most unique and fascinating players in the minors, but it remains to be seen how well his skill set will play in the Majors. Regardless, he’s a Top 10 prospect.

Beyond the club’s first pick, this is a pretty “meh” draft. Rams is still young, but crazy-high BABIPs have not helped him hit for average, mainly due to his strikeout rates (44.0% in low-A). The raw power is there (.200 ISO), but he needs to get that swing under control. Morales is another unrefined prospect with strikeout tendencies and impressive power potential. The Puerto Rican outfielder made some strides in ’09.

2006 1st Round: Chris Parmalee, OF/1B, California HS
2. Joe Benson, OF, Illinois HS
3. Tyler Robertson, LHP, California HS
14x – Jeff Manship, RHP, Notre Dame

Parmalee, Benson, and Robertson are all top prospects. Anthony Slama was a nice find in the 30th round, while 14th rounder Jeff Manship and 19th rounder Danny Valencia find themselves on the club’s Top 10 prospects list.

The club selected Jared Mitchell in the 10th round, out of a Louisiana high school. The outfielder became a No. 1 draft pick of the White Sox in 2009.

Up Next: The Minnesota Twins Top 10 Prospects