Archive for Minor Leagues

A Minor Review of 2009: Los Angeles Dodgers

Prospect ranking season is just around the corner. In anticipation of that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The popular series is back for a second year.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Graduate: Ronald Belisario, RHP
Belisario was always one of those talented pitchers that bounced around organizations because he could never truly turn his potential into results. That changed pretty quickly after the Pirates organization gave up on him. Belisario jumped from double-A to the Majors and posted a 2.04 ERA (but a 3.51 FIP) and allowed just 52 hits in 70.2 innings. He also posted a walk rate of 3.69 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 8.15 K/9. Belisaro also did a nice job of limiting the home run (0.51 HR/9) thanks to a 56.0% ground-ball rate. He’s pretty much a one-pitch pitcher (He throws the heater 85.3% of the time), but with a bowling-ball fastball that sits around 95 mph, that’s pretty much all he needs.

The Riser: Tony Delmonico, C
Drafted as an infielder, Delmonico moved to catcher in 2009. It increased his value as a prospect but it’s also slowed his ascent through the minors. The crazy power numbers that he showed in his debut (.716 slugging) have leveled off as expected but he still showed a good bat in ’09 at low-A ball, especially for a catcher. Delmonico’s work behind the plate has received mixed reviews but most feel he’ll be good enough to stick as a backstop. He threw out 26% of runners trying to steal against him. An injured hand ended his season prematurely on Aug. 4.

The Tumbler: Austin Gallagher, 3B
Affected by injuries, Gallagher’s career has been moving backwards instead of forwards. After a solid debut, the third baseman was promoted all the way high-A for the 2008 season. He held his own given his age and lack of experience, but he played in just 78 games. Sent down a step in ’09 to low-A ball, Gallagher’s offense declined to a line of .257/.319/.345, although his strikeout rate dropped five percent. Unfortunately, he did not play after July 3 due to a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder.

The ’10 Sleeper: Justin Miller, RHP
I’ll admit, Miller is a real sleeper. The right-hander had a rough year in low-A and high-A. At the lower level, he posted a 4.70 ERA (4.25 FIP) and allowed 125 hits in 115 innings of work. His walk rate was solid at 3.60 BB/9 but his strikeout rate was low-ish at 5.17 K/9. Upon a promotion to high-A, Miller lost all seven starts and posted a 8.13 ERA, but his FIP was just 5.18. He allowed 52 hits in 34.1 innings of work and his strikeout rate dropped to just 3.67 K/9. What we have here is a pitcher that pitches to contact with a crazy number of ground balls (61.9%) and an average repertoire (88-92 mph fastball, slider, change). With better defenses behind him, he could develop into a nice No. 4/5 starter or middle reliever.

Bonus: Andrew Lambo, OF
Lambo was identified as the ’08 sleeper for the Dodgers after a very nice campaign in low-A ball. He followed up with a promotion to double-A in ’09 but his bat was much quieter. His overall line was .256/.311/.407 and his homer total dropped from 18 in ’08 to 11 in ’09. However, he did hit 39 doubles, so there is some potential for some of those to jump up and over the fence as Lambo matures as a hitter. Another positive was the increase in his walk rate despite the promotion to double-A. The walk rate rose from 5.3% to 7.3% and the strikeout rate dropped from 25.0% to 19.3%. It wasn’t a stellar year but it wasn’t a complete waste, either, as Lambo made some adjustments.


A Minor Review of 2009: Los Angeles Angels

Prospect ranking season is just around the corner. In anticipation of that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The popular series is back for a second year.

Los Angeles Angels

The Graduate: Kevin Jepsen, RHP
Despite being a rookie in ’09, Jepsen was one of the Angels’ best relievers – especially with the loss of veteran set-up man Scot Shields to injury. Jepsen was a little too hittable with 63 hits allowed in 54.2 innings, but he maintained solid walk and strikeout rates: 3.13 BB/9 and 7.90 K/9. He kept a lot of balls out of the air with a 57.1% ground-ball rate. Jepsen’s ERA of 4.94 was misleading; his FIP was just 2.86.

The Riser: Chris Pettit, OF
We could talk about a number of prospects here, including shortstop Rolando Gomez and pitcher Ryan Chaffee, but let’s focus on the more MLB-ready player: outfielder Pettit. He doesn’t have a huge ceiling but the 25 year old has been a consistently-good hitter, save for an injury-marred 2008 season. In 2009 at triple-A, Pettit hit .321/.383/.482 with 30 doubles in 371 at-bats. His usually-solid walk rate took a hit down to 7.7% but he kept the strikeouts in check: 16.7%. Pettit doesn’t have a huge ceiling but should be an excellent fourth outfielder (along the lines of the Cubs’ Reed Johnson) in an organization that has aging starting outfielders who could need plenty of rest.

The Tumbler: Mason Tobin, RHP
It wasn’t really Tobin’s fault that he stumbled in 2009, thankfully one of few top-rated prospects to do so. The talented right-hander has been inundated with injury problems since turning pro and has appeared in just 11 games in the past two seasons. Tobin, 22, has solid stuff, including a low-90s fastball, slider and changeup, and the Angels organization was converting him from starter to reliever when his latest DL stint occurred.

The ’10 Sleeper: Manuarys Correa, RHP
Correa’s numbers were not as flashy as some of his teammates (Chaffee, Tyler Chatwood) but he maintains a high ceiling thanks to a repertoire that includes a 90-93 mph fastball, plus slider and changeup. Just 20 years old, Correa allowed 176 hits in 163 innings of work in low-A. He showed good control with a walk rate of 2.37 BB/9 but his strikeout rate was puzzling (given his stuff) at just 3.81 K/9. Correa had nice numbers against southpaws with a .247 average allowed and a ground-ball rate of 50.7%. The Dominican Republic native just needs experience and time to learn the nuances of pitching to professional hitters.

Bonus: P.J. Phillips, 2B/CF
Listed as the sleeper in the ’08 review series, I had high hopes for Phillips from the time the Angels nabbed him in the second round of the 2005 draft. Unfortunately, the athletic brother of Brandon Phillips just has not been able to make the necessary adjustments against professional pitchers. His chronically-low on-base percentage and hack-tastic ways negate most of the value in his bat. Not even a repeat season in the hitters’ haven known as Rancho Cucamonga could light a fire under this faltering prospect.


A Minor Review of 2009: Arizona Diamondbacks

Prospect ranking season is just around the corner. In anticipation of that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The popular series is back for the second year.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Graduate: Gerardo Parra, OF
This 22-year-old outfielder was not supposed to play such a key role on the Major League club in 2009. Despite that fact, Parra was hitting .288/.322/.400 in 448 at-bats during the final week of the season. The left-handed hitter clearly needs to improve against southpaws if he is going to avoid the dreaded platoon, as he is hitting just .200/.250/.220 in 100 at-bats. Parra was incredibly consistent on the year, hitting under .298 in just one month (June at .214). The five steals in 11 attempts is a disappointing number when you consider he stole 20+ bases each season in the minors.

The Riser: Josh Collmenter, RHP
With the exception of Jarrod Parker, who is now hurt, there are not a lot of high-ceiling players in the Arizona system. Right-hander Josh Collmenter is a steady pitcher with a modest ceiling, but he’s put together two solid back-to-back seasons. The 23-year-old was a little old for high-A ball and his 8-10 record, as well as 4.15 ERA, do not look overly impressive. Strip away those stats, though, and you see 127 hits allowed in 145.1 innings in a good hitter’s league, a 0.50 HR/9 rate, and a FIP of 3.12. Collmenter also posted an OK walk rate of 3.41 BB/9 and his strikeout rate jumped almost 2.00 over his 2008 season in low-A ball to 9.41 K/9.

The Tumbler: Collin Cowgill, OF
Cowgill is another example of why you should never get too excited when a college draft pick puts up really crazy numbers in short-season ball… and the same can be said for small sample power numbers (Oh, Mitch Einertson, where are you?). To be fair to Cowgill, the outfielder did struggle with injuries in 2009 but he did not exactly set the world on fire when he was in the lineup. In 220 high-A at-bats, the 23-year-old prospect hit .277/.373/.445 with an ISO of .168. He did show some patience at the plate with a walk rate of 11.6%. Cowgill is probably going to end up as a tweener… along the lines of Shane Costa.

The ’10 Sleeper: Reynaldo Navarro, SS
The Diamondbacks organization is not known for investing a lot of time and money into raw, toolsy players… it prefers to go the college route with its prospects. Navarro was a fun deviation from the usual game plan, but he’s been slow to develop as a 2006 third round draft pick out of Puerto Rico. This season, he hit .262/.308/.339 with 12 steals in 451 at-bats in low-A ball. Obviously there is work to be done, but he’s still just 19 and he only became a full-time switch-hitter after being drafted. Defensively, he should stick at shortstop; his range took a hit this season but he cut down on the youthful errors.

Bonus: Evan Frey, OF
Frey was highlighted as the sleeper during the ’08 review series. The speedy outfielder stole a career-high 31 bases in 2009 at double-A, but he was caught 14 times. His walk rate dropped a bit to 10.3% but he trimmed his strikeout rate to 15.4% after it sat at 20.1% in high-A ball in ’08. The OPS went from .815 in 2008 to just .686 in 2009 and his batting average also lost .030 points, in part due to a drop in BABIP from .367 to .314.


A Minor Review of 2009: Texas Rangers

Prospect ranking season is just around the corner. In anticipation of that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The popular series is back for the second year.

Texas Rangers

The Graduate: Tommy Hunter, RHP
Fellow rookie Derek Holland gets a lot of love, but Hunter has actually been more consistent (as “consistent” as rookie pitchers can be) this season. The right-hander has a nice walk rate at 2.67 BB/9 but a modest strikeout rate of just 5.10 K/9. Despite the fact he doesn’t miss a ton of bats, Hunter has allowed just 104 hits in 107.2 innings of work. He has, though, been touched up by the long-ball with 12 homers (1.00 HR/9). Hunter has also been aided by a low BABIP-allowed at .275. His homework for the 2009-10 off-season should be to improve his ground-ball rate (37.2%).

The Riser: Mitch Moreland, 1B
Moreland had a very nice year – especially for a player that really wasn’t on the prospect map prior to 2009. A two-way player at Mississippi State University, the big first baseman’s bat has really come on since he signed as a 17th round draft pick in 2007. He had a nice 2008 season but built on that while playing in high-A and double-A. Overall, Moreland posted a line of .331/.391/.527 with 38 doubles and 16 homers in 471 at-bats. Old for high-A ball, the now-24-year-old still hit well in double-A, although his walk rate dove by four percent and his ISO dropped almost .100, from .253 to .163. The left-handed hitter has fared well against southpaws in his career but his lack of usable in-game home run power could hurt him at the MLB level.

The Tumbler: Michael Main, RHP
Sometimes baseball players just have everything stacked against them. Main was highly-regarded as both a pitcher and a hitter when he was selected out of a Florida high school in the first round of the 2007draft. Injuries and illness have taken their toll on his career so far, though. After posting respectable numbers in 2007-08, Main’s stats took a tumble in ’09 due to his health woes. He allowed 72 hits in 58 innings of work, while posting a walk rate of 5.74 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.60 K/9. He did get back on the mound at the very end of the year but the season was a write-off. At this point, Rangers fans should just hope that Main can be happy and healthy in 2010.

The ’10 Sleeper: Wilmer Font, RHP
When you think of young pitchers and the Rangers, Neftali Feliz‘ name pops up first. When you ask for the next electric arm in the system, people will mention Martin Perez. Mr. Font, though, should also be in the mix. The right-hander is just 19 but he can already touch the upper 90s with the heater and he also utilizes a changeup and a curveball. He is currently a one-pitch pitcher with his secondary stuff needing a lot of work. Despite that, he was able to dominate low-A ball hitters on occasion. Font allowed 93 hits in 108.1 innings of work and posted a strikeout rate of 8.72 K/9. He struggled with his control and posted a walk rate of 4.90 BB/9.

Bonus: Taylor Teagarden, C
Current back-up catcher Teagarden was listed as the sleeper in the 2008 series. Despite spending the year in the Majors, his 2009 season has not exactly gone as hoped with him barely seeing playing time in the first half of the year. Only an injury to Jarrod Saltalamacchia allowed Teagarden to get into the lineup (briefly) on a regular basis. The acquisition of veteran Pudge Rodriguez quickly put an end to the regular playing time, even though Teagarden’s bat was showing some life when he was able to play more than once a week.


A Minor Review of 2009: San Francisco Giants

Prospect ranking season is just around the corner. In anticipation of that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The popular series is back for the second year.

San Francisco Giants

The Graduate: Merkin Valdez, RHP
As Buster Posey will probably tell you in private, there are not a lot of rookies that get a fair shake in San Francisco. Valdez was one of a few rookies that saw “significant” playing time in 2009. The right-handed reliever allowed 57 hits in 49.1 innings of work and posted a walk rate of 5.11 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 6.93 K/9. A former hard-throwing top prospect, Valdez has had injury problems and his lack of minor-league options meant that San Francisco had to hold on to him all year even though he struggled. With a fastball that sits around 95 mph, Valdez is an intriguing commodity but he needs to improve his secondary pitches (He threw the heater more than 80% of the time).

The Riser: Dan Runzler, LHP
This was a hard pick to make because A) Runzler may sneak onto the back end of the Top 10 list for the organization (I like him a lot) and B) Most of the other risers definitely vaulted themselves onto the Top 10 list. Although he is a middle reliever right now, Runzler could be a very good one. The southpaw has crazy ground-ball rates (60%+ in his career) and his fastball has been sitting around 95 mph in the Majors (7.1 innings). He’s not just a LOOGY, either. Runzler has held lefties to a .189 career batting average and righties are hitting just .181. Don’t count him out as a future closer.

The Tumbler: Nick Noonan, 2B
Noonan did not make a huge tumble in 2009 but the 2007 supplemental first round pick out of a San Diego high school did certainly take a step back. His OPS has dropped from .809 in his debut to .730 in 2008 and .728 this year. He’s also seen his strikeout rate go from 9.7 to 19.6 to 21.1%. As well, he stole just nine bases this year in 14 attempts after nabbing 29 in 2008. With a .136 career ISO, Noonan offers just a little pop and now he’s stopped running, which means he’s a singles hitter that hit just .259/.330/.397 in high-A ball.

The ’10 Sleeper: Hector Sanchez, C
Sanchez made his North American debut in 2009 and held his own with the bat in rookie ball. The 19-year-old catcher batted .299/.403/.410 and showed a good grasp of the strike zone for his age with a walk rate of 12.0% and a strikeout rate of 17.9%. Impressively, though, it’s his defense that gets talked about the most and he threw out 45% of base runners attempting to steal. Like some other Giants we know and love, he needs to watch his weight.

Bonus: Clayton Tanner, LHP
Tanner received some consideration for “The Riser” category before I realized he was listed as the sleeper prospect in the 2008 minor review. The southpaw can be labeled as a soft-tosser, which limits his ceiling to a degree, but the Australian continues to make improvements and have success. Tanner posted a walk rate of just 2.71 BB/9 while repeating high-A ball for the second year.The 21-year-old also increased his strikeout rate over 2008 from 6.46 to 7.82 K/9. In 139.1 innings, he allowed 132 hits but gave up an alarming 18 homers (1.16 HR/9). Tanner needs to work on throwing better quality strikes.


A Minor Review of 2009: Oakland Athletics

Prospect ranking season is just around the corner. In anticipation of that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The popular series is back for the second year.

Oakland Athletics

The Graduate: Andrew Bailey, RHP
Oakland graduated a ton of rookies in 2009 but Bailey did far more than what was expected of him. Mainly a starter in the minors, Bailey came to the Majors and asserted himself as the club’s go-to guy in the ninth inning. With a handful of games remaining in the season, the right-hander has 26 saves in 30 attempts and has allowed just 49 hits in 81.1 innings of work. He also has a solid walk rate at 2.66 BB/9 and a good strikeout rate at 9.85 K/9. Bailey will certainly be in on the Rookie of the Year discussion.

The Riser: Sam Demel, RHP
Taken out of Texas Christian University as a senior in the third round of the 2007 draft, Demel is on the cusp of pitching in Oakland. He split 2009 between double-A and triple-A. His control is the biggest thing holding him back. Demel posted a 2.76 walk rate in high-A but it jumped to 5.85 BB/9 in triple-A. Overall, he allowed 50 hits in 61.2 innings of work. Demel also has very good ground-ball rates in his career and he has allowed just two home runs all season. His repertoire includes a fastball that can touch the mid-90s, a very good changeup and a slider.

The Tumbler: Brett Hunter, RHP
With a high-90s fastball and a wipe-out slider, Hunter has all the makings to be a dominating closer. He slipped in the 2008 draft because he was dealing with injuries but the A’s got him signed away from his senior year at Pepperdine University after watching him throw well in the summer. Unfortunately after a nice, albeit brief, debut in ’08, his command and his control both deserted him in 2009 in low-A ball. He allowed 38 hits in 47.1 innings of work but posted a walk rate of 11.22 BB/9 (59 walks). The 22-year-old has a big mountain to climb in 2010.

The ’10 Sleeper: Jeremy Barfield, OF
The son of former Blue Jay/Yankee Jesse Barfield, Jeremy has even more raw potential than brother Josh Barfield. Originally selected in the ninth round of the 2006 draft by the Mets, Jeremy went to junior college and eventually signed with Oakland in the eighth round of the 2008 draft. The outfielder has intriguing power potential and he hit well in his debut but slipped a bit in 2009 after playing full-season ball for the first time. Jeremy hit .302/.380/.467 before the All-Star break but just .234/.317/.332 afterward. The right-handed hitter also struggled against southpaws with a batting average of just .228.

Bonus: Andrew Carignan, RHP
Carignan was ranked as the sleeper for Oakland during the 2008 Minor Review series. Unfortunately, the right-handed reliever never had an opportunity to make good on that potential as he was hurt (forearm/elbow) and appeared in just two games all season long. If he can get back on the mound in 2010 with the stuff he showed in 2008, then he still has a chance fulfill his promise as a late-game reliever (likely a set-up man). Carignan biggest need right now is to improve his command/control but the layoff certainly will not help.


A Minor Review of 2009: San Diego Padres

Prospect ranking season is just around the corner. In anticipation of that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The popular series is back for the second year. Previously, we looked at the Colorado Rockies.

San Diego Padres

The Graduate: Everth Cabrera | SS
A Rule 5 draft pick, Cabrera helped to fill a glaring hole in the middle of the diamond with his play at shortstop. Just 22 and with no experience above A-ball prior to 2009, the speedy infielder hit .267/.344/.366 in 358 at-bats. He also stole 24 bases but was caught seven times. He’ll also need to work on becoming more consistent, but that should come with experience. At worst, he looks like a big-league utility player.

The Riser: Sawyer Carroll | OF
There were a number of prospect who really stepped forward this year for the Padres organization but Carroll gets the nod here. He hit for average over three levels and his combined line on the year was .317/.413/.489 with 40 doubles in 479 at-bats. As a right-fielder, Carroll could stand to increase his power output (eight homers) but the .171 ISO is a step in the right direction. His plate rates were very nice with an 18.0% walk rate and a 19.5% strikeout rate. The 23-year-old left-handed batter has hit very well against southpaws in his short pro career, including .333/.423/.500 in 2009.

The Tumbler: Allan Dykstra | 1B
It came down to a coin flip between Dykstra and Kellen Kulbacki, but the former won out because the latter’s season was ruined by injury. Dykstra was the club’s No. 1 draft pick in 2008 but he’s struggled since entering pro ball and he was less-than-impressive in low-A in 2009. His line of .226/.397/.375 was just plain bad, although his walk rate of 20.2% was eye-popping. He may have actually been a little too passive at the plate for his own good. Dykstra hit just .204 with the bases empty versus .249 with runners on base. Despite the bad numbers, the 22 year old should move up to the California League in 2010. It’s a league that tends to inflate hitters’ numbers.

The ’10 Sleeper: Nick Schmidt | LHP
You have to feel sorry for Schmidt, who was cursed the moment he was taken as a first-round draft pick by the organization. He missed the 2008 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He opened 2009 in low-A ball where he dominated (as he should have given his age and experience level). He allowed just 38 hits in 51.2 innings of work and posted a strikeout rate of 10.28 K/9. His walk rate was poor at 4.01 BB/9 and it suggested that he might struggle at higher levels. That is exactly what happened when he moved up to high-A. Schmidt posted a walk rate of 5.06 BB/9 and his strikeout rate dropped to 5.06 K/9. He allowed 68 hits in 48 innings. Control is the last thing to come back after surgery, so Schmidt stands a good chance of improving in 2010.

Bonus: The ’08 sleeper was Eric Sogard. He had another underrated season, this time in double-A where he hit .293/.370/.400 in 457 at-bats. The left-handed batter doesn’t hit southpaws well (.214 in ’09) and he’s not a great defensive player so he’s likely headed for a career as a platoon or utility player.


A Minor Review of 2009: Colorado Rockies

Prospect ranking season is just around the corner. In anticipation of that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The popular series is back for the second year.

Colorado Rockies

The Graduate: Seth Smith | OF
He didn’t get 130+ at-bats in 2008, which is the amount needed to eliminate his rookie status, but Smith did spend more than 45 days with the club prior to roster expansion on Sept. 1. That means he was technically no longer a rookie in 2009. However, we’ll give him some props since most people didn’t realize he lost his eligibility last season. Teammate Dexter Fowler also had a nice season in Colorado, but Smith’s line of .297/.383/.520 in 323 at-bats was an unexpected bonus. He also showed solid plate rates with a 12.5% walk rate and a 19.2% strikeout rate. Yeah, he plays in Colorado but an ISO of .223 is still mighty impressive. It’s also rare for a 26-year-old player to be a reliable bat off the bench.

The Riser: Juan Nicasio | RHP
The Rockies organization is known for effectively mining talent in Venezuela but Nicasio could be a steal for the club out of the Dominican Republic. A little old for a Latin player in low-A ball, the right-hander is a late-bloomer who allowed 110 hits in 112 innings of work. Nicasio also posted a walk rate of 1.85 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.24 K/9. His ERAs were a little high in his previous two seasons (both in short-season leagues) but he has posted three solid FIPs: 3.75, 2.40, 2.57. His repertoire includes a low-90s fastball that touches 95-96 mph, as well as a slider and changeup.

The Tumbler: Joseph (Tyler) Massey | OF
The Rockies organization handed Massey some big cash to sign as a 14th round selection out of a Tennessee high school. He was young in 2009 (19) and played in full-season ball but more was expected than a line of .220/.261/.290 with just 19 extra base hits in 404 at-bats. Given that he projects to be a corner outfielder or first baseman, the .069 ISO is disappointing. Massey will be given a do-over in 2010, as he was obviously overwhelmed by the speed of professional baseball games.

The ’10 Sleeper: Radames Nazario | SS/3B
Nazario, 22, has been kicking around the Rockies system for a few years now with modest results (in part due to injuries), but he showed some signs of life in high-A. At 6’0 165 lbs, he needs to get stronger to weather the long season. He hit .287/365/.422 in the first half of the year but just .167/.220/.235 after the All-Star break. Twenty-seven of Nazario’s 89 hits were doubles, so he currently possesses gap power. With a little more meat on his bones, his ISO of .116 should climb.

BONUS: The ’08 sleeper was Eric Young Jr. and he’s finally getting the recognition that he deserves after some solid minor-league seasons. I won’t say much else because he will be on the Rockies’ Top 10 list.


First-Round Woes: Tyler Colvin

With his recent promotion to the Majors, there have been a lot of questions being asked about the Cubs’ outfield prospect Tyler Colvin. The Clemson University product was originally selected by Chicago in the first round of the 2006 draft. He was chosen 13th overall, even though some teams did not have him in the mix for a Top 100 selection.

The Cubs organization thought enough of his athleticism to bypass other players such as Travis Snider (Toronto), Kyle Drabek (Philadelphia), Hank Conger (LAA), and Daniel Bard (Boston). But the club did not have second, third, or fourth round picks and it obviously felt he would not be there in the fifth round, where the club selected Jeff Samardzija.

Colvin’s early minor league numbers were OK on the surface but he did not excel in any one area. He hit for a respectable average in 2007 while splitting the year between high-A and double-A but it became clear that his approach was not going to work in the upper levels of the minors and the Majors.

That year, Colvin walked just 3.9% of the time in high-A (245 at-bats) and 2.0% in double-A (247 at-bats). His average remained OK, in part due to strong BABIPs of .356 and .342. Colvin was then left in double-A in 2008 to work on his game plan at the plate. He batted an uninspired .256/.312/.424 in 540 at-bats. His walk rate rose to 7.5%.

The organization demoted the now-24-year-old outfielder to high-A to begin 2009 to not only continue working on his approach but also to continue his rehab from elbow surgery, as one reader pointed out. Colvin hit just .250 with an OPS of .683 in 32 games, but the walk rate hit double digits for the first time in his career at 10.4%. He was then promoted to double-A (His third shot) for the remainder of the minor league season. He hit .300/.334/.524 with a walk rate of 5.0% in 307 at-bats.

It’s pretty clear that Colvin is what he is: A fringe starting outfielder with average usable power who doesn’t get on-base enough, and who has limited interest in stealing bases despite having above-average abilities on the base paths. He might luck into a few seasons where he’ll produce a solid batting average, but it probably won’t be the norm.

The Cubs took a gamble on Colvin in the 2006 draft, but it looks like a swing-and-a-miss as a No. 1 pick. That said, he could still be a useful MLB player… and he’d be getting better press if he had gone to the Cubs in the third or fourth round.


The World of Prospect Writing

It’s Friday and I feel like doing something a little bit different this morning. If you read my stuff even on a semi-regular basis then you probably know that 90% of my writing is about minor league baseball, prospects and rookies. One of my favorite things to do is surf the ‘net to see what other prospect scribes are saying or doing. So, let’s give a shout out to some of the best in the business.

Baseball America
This publication is the King of Prospect Analysis. Working like a well-oiled machine, Baseball America makes use of a large staff of insightful and passionate baseball writers, which helps it cover every avenue of minor league baseball, as well as college and high school baseball. The staff has taken a number of hits over the years as other larger companies have stolen some of the writers, but The Big Three remain the same at the top of the chart: Will Lingo, John Manuel, and Jim Callis. Callis is probably the best-known writer as he does a weekly chat for ESPN.com and also helps cover the amateur draft for Major League Baseball’s draft-day television coverage. I am also a particular fan of the work done by Ben Badler, Matt Eddy, and Aaron Fitt. I’ve really enjoyed Nathan Rode’s work as of late. Right now BA is producing Top 20 lists for every league in Minor League Baseball beginning with the Gulf Coast League.

Keith Law at ESPN.com
Perhaps the most entertaining baseball personality on the Web, Law is a well-educated prospect analyst who entertains me to no end with his (usually) weekly chats. He brings an interesting perspective after spending time as an assistant general manager with the Toronto Blue Jays, and he obviously has some scouting education/experience. Law also does good work on the amateur baseball draft. The only knock I have on his work is that there is not enough of it. I’d love to see him do even more… like The Klaw Top 10 lists. Feel free to ask him a question during one of his chats… and don’t worry… if it’s a stupid question, he’ll let you know.

Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus
Goldstein is the main reason why I have a subscription at BP.com… and so I can read Eric Seidman’s weekly analysis. Goldstein is a former Baseball America staffer who has made good on a solo career. His annual Top 11 Prospects lists are a must-read for every minor-league fan; he has connections in the industry that would make you drool. The weekly Monday Ten Pack is a great way to start the week, and his new daily Minor League Update has been the best thing to happen to BP.com since Mr. Seidman arrived. The only downside to his work is the aforementioned subscription.

John Sickels at Minor League Ball
Sickels is probably not as widely known as the Laws and the Goldsteins of the baseball world, but he has been around for a long time and you’ve probably read his stuff as some point or another. A glance over to my baseball bookcase shows a Stats Inc. 2001 Minor League Scouting Notebook that Sickels wrote. He did a bunch of them before branching out onto his own. Sickels does his own website, he contributes to Rotowire.com, and he publishes his own prospect annual called The Baseball Prospect Book. Be sure to order the 2010 version when it’s available.

Lisa Winston and Jonathan Mayo at MiLB.com
One of the best things to happen to the minor leagues and prospect coverage has been the growth of the official site of Minor League Baseball. On the downside, I think so much more could be done with the type of revenue that is being generated by MLB.com and MiLB.com… Each minor-league system should have at least one full-time reporter devoted to it with massive amounts of material written for each one on a daily basis. That hasn’t happened yet, but we do have Winston and Mayo. Of particular value is the work that they do leading up to the draft, as well as their annual organizational previews and reviews.

Is there anyone else out there that you read on a regular basis?