Over the next few days, we’re looking at sophomore, or second-year, players in the Major Leagues. Today’s post is looking at the American League East division. Yesterday, we looked at the American League Central.

Ian Kennedy came into the Yankees’ system with a reputation of being a pretty good college pitcher, but he was not quite as highly regarded as he had been coming out of high school (in part because he lost a little bit off the fastball). Despite some grumblings that Kennedy had been an overdraft as a first-round draft pick, the right-hander dominated the minor leagues (He has a career 1.96 ERA in the minors). There is a reason, though, that they call it the “Major Leagues” and Kennedy was hit around in 2008. He posted an 8.17 ERA and allowed 50 hits in just 39.2 innings or work. His walk rate, which was 2.8 BB/9 in the minors, jumped to 5.90 BB/9. Kennedy got off to a solid start in 2009 in four games at triple-A but he then underwent surgery for an aneurysm under his right armpit and will be out until after the All-Star break.

Like Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain was a pretty good college pitcher but he had injuries problems and other teams shied away from him. Big mistake. The Yankees took a risk and have one of the top young arms in baseball, although Chamberlain has still had a few injuries throughout his pro career. In 2008, the right-hander spent time in both the starting rotation and the bullpen. He allowed just 87 hits in 100.1 innings, while posting a 2.60 ERA (2.65 FIP). Chamberlain also posted an excellent strikeout rate at 10.58 K/9. In 2009, he has continued to pitch well, although he has not been as dominant. He has a 3.86 ERA (4.68 FIP) with 56 hits allowed in 63.1 innings of work. His walk rate has risen from 3.50 in 2008 to 4.69 BB/9 in 2009. His strikeout rate has decreased to 8.24 K/9. Chamberlain’s average fastball velocity has decreased each of the past three seasons, from 97 to 95 to 92.4 mph, although part of that can be attributed to spending more time in the starting rotation.

Both Jose Veras and Edwar Ramirez came out of almost nowhere in 2008 to provide much-needed innings for the Yankees’ bullpen. Veras, now 28, allowed 52 hits in 57.2 innings and had a strikeout rate of 9.83 K/9. However, he was just designated for assignment after posting a 5.96 ERA in 2009 and seeing his strikeout rate drop to 6.31 K/9, while also struggling with his control and gopher ball tendencies. Ramirez, also 28, had a 3.90 ERA in 2008 and posted a 3.90 BB/9 rate, as well as a strikeout rate of 10.25 K/9. In 2009, though, he’s regressed to a 5.19 ERA, and rates of 7.79 BB/9 and 8.31 K/9.

As far as first-round picks go, David Purcey has been a huge disappointment. Making his MLB debut at the age of 26, the left-hander posted a 5.54 ERA and allowed 67 hits in 65 innings of work, although he showed some improvements as the year progressed. His rates were 4.02 BB/9 and 8.03 K/9. In 2009, he won an opening-day rotation spot but made just five starts before a demotion to triple-A. In those starts, Purcey allowed a 7.01 ERA, 28 hits in 25.2 innings and posted rates of 6.31 BB/9 and 9.12 K/9.

Southpaw Jesse Carlson was a revelation in 2008 and appeared in 69 games as a rookie. He posted a 2.25 ERA (3.80 FIP) and allowed just 41 hits in 60 innings of work. In 2009, though, Carlson’s ERA has risen to 5.22 (although his FIP is just 3.80) and he’s allowed 31 hits in 29.1 innings. His control is OK (3.15 BB/9 in 2008, 2.76 in 2009) but he hasn’t had the same command of his pitches and his strikeout rate has dropped from 8.25 K/9 in 2008 to 5.83 K/9 this season.

Radhames Liz has a blistering fastball but he’s just one more hard-throwing pitcher that has no idea how to pitch (Daniel Cabrera, anyone?). Liz, 26, was promoted to the Majors in 2008 by the pitching-poor Orioles and was coming off a good half season in the minors, as well as a very good 2007 season at double-A. Liz allowed 99 hits in 84.1 innings, while also posting a 6.72 ERA. He posted rates of 5.44 BB/9 and 6.08 K/9. So far this year, Liz has a 6.09 ERA in triple-A and has a 67.50 ERA in two relief appearances in the Majors. Velocity is not everything.

Another hard thrower, Dennis Sarfate appeared in 57 games for the Orioles as a rookie in 2008. He allowed just 62 hits in 79.2 innings of work and posted rates of 7.00 BB/9 and 9.72 K/9. Sarfate, 28, appeared in just eight games in 2009 and posted an ERA of 6.39 before going on the disabled list with circulation problems in his finger. Right-hander Jim Johnson was also a major contributor to the 2008 bullpen as a rookie. He posted a 2.23 ERA (3.38 FIP) while allowing 54 hits in 68.2 innings of work. In 2009, Johnson, 25, has continued to have success with a 3.07 ERA (3.83 FIP) and 28 hits allowed in 29.1 innings. His strikeout rate has actually risen from 4.98 K/9 in 2008 to 6.14 K/9 in 2009.

A sinker-slider pitcher, Justin Masterson has bounced between the starting rotation and bullpen for the Red Sox during the past two seasons with good success in both roles. The right-hander induces a lot of groundballs and gets his fair share of strikeouts in the process. He posted a 3.16 ERA (4.69 FIP) while allowing 68 hits in 88.1 innings of work in 2008. In 2009, the 24 year old has a 3.88 ERA (3.68 FIP) with 56 hits allowed in 53.1 innings. Masterson has also seen his BABIP allowed increase from .243 in 2008 to .332 in 2009. His walk rate has decreased from 4.08 in 2008 to 3.04 BB/9 this season.

Clay Buchholz burst upon the scene in 2007 but struggled during his rookie season in 2008 by allowing 93 hits in 76 innings of work. He posted a 6.75 ERA and posted a strikeout rate of 4.86 BB/9. He’s really turned things around in triple-A this season, although there is no opening in the Red Sox Major League rotation. Buchholz has a 1.75 ERA (3.27 FIP) in triple-A with 40 hits allowed in 67 innings. His walk rate is just 2.01 BB/9.

Jed Lowrie did a nice job as an injury replacement in 2008 for the Red Sox. He had a triple-slash line of .258/.339/.400 with two homers in 260 at-bats. His strikeout rate of 26.2 K% was a little high for an infielder with modest pop, but he filled in at three positions and provided solid defense. After just five games in 2009 Lowrie required wrist surgery. He’s currently rehabbing.

It was hard for Jacoby Ellsbury to build off his debut in 2007, but he had a solid – albeit unspectacular – first full season in Majors in 2008. He hit .280/.336/.394 with 50 stolen bases in 61 attempts. Ellsbury’s triple-slash line in 2009 is .306/.351/.383 and he’s stolen 25 bases in 31 attempts. He’s also trimmed his strikeout rate from 14.4 to 8.9 K/9, while maintaining almost the same walk rate at 6.1 BB%. Ellsbury is proving to be a very solid player, but he’s probably not a star.

Evan Longoria had a huge 2008 season and won the American League Rookie of the Year award. He produced a triple-slash line of .272/.343/.531 and hit 27 home runs. So far this year, Longoria has been even better with a line of .305/.387/.584 with 14 home runs and 58 RBI. His walk rate has increased from 9.3 in 2008 to 11.4 BB% in 2009. His strikeout rate has stayed almost the same at 26.5 K%. Longoria also plays a solid third base. He should be a mainstay in the Rays lineup for many years to come.

Matt Joyce spent the 2008 season with Detroit and hit .252/.339/.510 with 12 homers in 242 at-bats. Traded to Tampa Bay for Edwin Jackson prior to the 2009 season, Joyce, 24, has regressed and has spent most of the season in triple-A. Jackson, though, has had a breakout season for Detroit.

Major League Baseball players, generally speaking, have reputations for being superstitious people. One of the more popular superstitions in baseball is that of the “sophomore jinx.” The dreaded disease has ruined the careers of many a promising young rookie. Over the next week or so, we’re going to take a look at how many of the 2008 rookies from around baseball are surviving in 2009 as they attempt to evade The Sophomore Jinx. The American League Central division is up first.

The Chicago White Sox club did not employ many rookies in 2008. In fact, Cuban defectee and middle infielder Alexei Ramirez was the only rookie to see extended playing time for the club. Ramirez, 27, had a fine debut season, although his walk rate was noticeably lacking with at 3.6 BB%. On the plus side, the lanky infielder has almost doubled that rate in 2009 to 7.0 BB% while maintaining an almost identical 12.8 K%. His triple-slash numbers has dropped from .290/.317/.475 to .252/.302/.345. Ramirez’ impressive power display from 2008, which resulted in 21 home runs in 480 at-bats, has bottomed out in 2009 with his ISO dropping from .185 to .093. His offense value has obviously decreased significantly, but he’s moved from second base to shortstop where his defense has been better than average, which helps soften the blow.

This may be more of a case of playing above one’s own head, than being bitten by the sophomore jinx. Shortstop Mike Aviles, now 28, burst upon the scene in KC in 2008 and was one of the club’s biggest offensive threats throughout the second half of the season. The infielder, who had a fairly undistinguished minor league career, hit .325/.354/.480 with 27 doubles and 10 homers in 419 at-bats. The walk rate at 4.1 BB% and a healthy BABIP of .359 were perhaps early warning signs that his numbers would see a dip in 2009. So far this season, Aviles has been a disappointment with his walk rate dropping to 3.2 BB%. His triple-slash line is just .183/.208/.250 in 120 at-bats.

The former No. 1 overall pick in the 2006 draft, right-hander Luke Hochevar had a mediocre rookie season in 2008, even without considering his lofty draft status. He posted a 5.51 ERA (4.43 FIP) and allowed 143 hits in 129 innings of work. His rates were nothing special at 3.28 BB/9 and 5.02 K/9. Realizing he was far from dominating, KC sent him down to triple-A to begin the 2009 season but recalled him when injuries and ineffectiveness reared their ugly heads. In 29 innings, Hochevar has a 5.60 ERA (5.53 FIP) with 25 hits allowed. He has also walked 10 batters with just nine strikeouts (2.96 K/9). With a 56.7 GB%, Hochevar, 25, has at least been keeping the ball out of the air on a regular basis.

Outfielder Josh Anderson spent the 2008 season as a member of the Atlanta Braves organization where he was unable to break into a long-term, regular gig with the club (He played in 121 triple-A games) despite its lack of outfield depth. The speedy athlete hit .294/.338/.426 in 136 at-bats. He also stolen 10 bases in 11 attempts. Traded to Detroit prior to the 2009 season, the 26-year-old outfielder is hitting .250/.286/.325 with 10 steals in 12 attempts in 120 at-bats. It’s clear why he’s been in three organizations in three years; he’s a borderline fourth outfielder.

Every year the pitching-poor Texas Rangers organization seems to give up on a young arm too soon. In 2008, it was right-hander Armando Galarraga. That year, he posted a 3.73 ERA (4.88 FIP) with 13 wins while allowing just 152 hits in 178.2 innings of work. He posted rates of 3.07 BB/9 and 6.35 K/9. The low strikeout total was a minor cause for concern, as was the home-run rate at 1.41 HR/9. Galarraga has been a mess in 2009. He has a 5.56 ERA (5.93 FIP) with 80 hits allowed in 69.2 innings of work. He’s also walking one more batter for every nine innings, so there are a lot of batters getting on base. The right-hander’s HR/9 rate has jumped to 1.81 despite pitching in a spacious home park.

Despite a hot stretch in 2008, Ben Francisco’s career so far has reeked of ‘tweener.’ He lacks the range to play center field on a regular basis and he lacks the pop in his bat to perform regularly at the corner outfield positions. In 2008, the outfielder posted a triple-slash line of .266/.332/.438 with 15 home runs in 447 at-bats. This season, he’s hitting just .245/.311/.392 with five home runs in 204 at-bats. At the age of 27, there is not much upside, although with a BABIP of .290 and a line-drive rate of 20%, we could see some modest improvements on the triple-slash line.

Southpaw Aaron Laffey, 24, narrowly missed losing his rookie status in 2007 by two-thirds of an inning. He posted similar numbers in 2007 and 2008, which meant both low walk and strikeout totals. The biggest difference was that his FIP jumped by more than a run in 2008 to 4.88. Laffey has spent time in both the starting rotation and bullpen in 2009 (as well as the minors) but he has a respectable ERA and has allowed fewer hits than innings pitched. The bullpen is probably the best place for a starter who uses his fastball 78% of the time despite averaging out at 87 mph.

If you’re a fan of FIP, you’re probably not a fan of Jensen Lewis. The right-handed reliever has posted pretty good superficial numbers over the parts of the past three seasons that he’s been in the Majors. However, his FIP has gone from 2.49 to 4.59 to 5.54. His line-drive rate was also a worrisome 24.5% in 2008, although it currently sits at 11.5%. His HR/9 rate has gone from 1.03 to 2.30 in the past two seasons. For what it’s worth, Lewis does have a nice K/BB rate at 3.00.

Technically a rookie despite having years of pro experience in Japan, right-handed reliever Masa Kobayashi falls under the category of the one-year trick pitcher, and his debut season was not all that good (4.55 FIP, 65 H in 55.2 IP).

It’s hard to believe that it wasn’t long ago that people were calling outfielder Denard Span a first round draft pick bust after he was taken out of a Florida high school with the 20th overall pick in 2002. The left-handed hitter, though, shook off the gossip and seized hold of a playing-time opportunity in 2008. His triple-slash line was solid for a player with his skill set (ie. speed) at .294/.387/.432 with 18 steals and six homers in 347 at-bats. Span, 25, even showed a willingness to walk a little bit (12.6%) while keeping his strikeout rate below 20%. His 2009 season has been an almost mirror image, although his power numbers are down and his ISO has dropped from .138 to .094.

Another 2008 rookie outfielder, more was expected from Carlos Gomez because he was the key name in the Johan Santana trade with the New York Mets. Gomez wowed a lot of people with his raw skills and potential, but there were a lot of hollow numbers, including his on-base percentage at .296. The 142 strikeouts were also troubling for a player that produced .360 slugging percentage, but it helped to explain the .258 batting average. His BABIP was .332 with a line-drive rate of 17.4… oh, if only he could put the bat on the ball more consistently. At 23, Gomez has time to learn and improve but he’d probably be better off getting regular playing time in the minors.

Left-hander Glen Perkins, 26, slipped into a starting rotation role in 2008 despite spending part of 2007 in the Majors as a reliever. He had an OK season for a No. 4 or 5 starter. Perkins won 12 games and posted a 4.41 ERA but his FIP was 5.14 and his strikeout rate was just 4.41 K/9 (It’s never a good thing if your ERA matches the K rate). He allowed 183 hits in 151 innings of work. Despite his less-than-stellar rookie season, the Minnesota club kept him in the rotation in 2009 but he’s responded with a 5.36 ERA (4.46 FIP) and 50 hits allowed in 47 innings of work.

Nick Blackburn, 27, is basically a right-handed version of Perkins. Neither pitcher throws very hard and they both rely on excellent command and control. In 2008, Blackburn allowed 224 hits in 193.1 innings of work. This year, he’s given up 86 hits in 84.1 innings. His strikeout rate has dropped from 4.47 to 3.95 K/9. The good news is that Minnesota has found its No. 4 and 5 starters for the next five years in Perkins and Blackburn.

Who is Barbaro Canizares?

He is a former Cuban baseball player that defected to North America and signed, rather quietly, with the Atlanta Braves organization in 2006. The first baseman is, if you believe the accuracy of the records, 29 years old. In parts of four minor league seasons he has some pretty nice numbers, with a career line of .318/.376/.461, playing mostly in triple-A and double-A.

The big first baseman (6-3, 210) was hitting well in triple-A at the time of his promotion to Atlanta this week. Canizares was batting .344/.412/.533 with eight home runs and 33 RBI in 227 at-bats. He was posting good plate rates, too, with a walk rate of 9.6% and a strikeout rate of just 12.3%.

In dire need of some pop in the lineup, Atlanta manager Bobby Cox made the unusual decision to put the rookie in the clean-up spot, sandwiched between Chipper Jones and Matt Diaz. Canizares went 1-for-4 with a single and two strikeouts in his debut against the Pittsburgh Pirates and southpaw Paul Maholm. The right-handed batter was called out on strikes on a curveball in his first at-bat. In his third at-bats versus Maholm, Canizares singled to left field.

While in Cuba, he played eight years for the Industriales of the Cuban National Series, and was a teammate of Los Angeles Angels’ first baseman Kendry Morales and Atlanta’s Yunel Escobar. It reportedly took him four attempts to successfully defect from Cuba and he spent time in both Mexico and Costa Rica before be could sign his first pro contract in North America. His defense is below average at first base and he was a catcher in Cuba.

Career-wise, you really cannot expect a ton from Canizares. As mentioned, he’s already (at least) 29 and he’s got the kind of body that will probably age quickly. With that said, he can rake and he also shows some power, especially against left-handed pitching (.501 slugging, .907 OPS vs southpaws) so he could perhaps have a five-to-six-year career as a platoon first baseman and pinch hitter. Regardless of what happens going forward, you have to be happy for Barbaro Canizares.

He’s come a long way to realize his dreams.

Earlier this week, I took a look at the American League Rookie of the Year race. There were a number of deserving candidates for the award, led by Elvis Andrus of Texas and Rick Porcello of Detroit. Unfortunately, the competition for the year-end award in the National League is close to being a one-horse race at this point – and none of the players are having a season nearly as good as either Andrus or Porcello.

St. Louis’ Colby Rasmus has a firm grasp on the Rookie of the Year award despite having just an OK season, so far. His current line is .265/.323/.453 with six home runs in 170 at-bats. Rasmus showed good patience at the plate in April with nine walks in 18 games, but he’s walked only three times since… in almost a month and a half. His overall walk rate is down to 6.6 BB%, while his strikeout rate is at a reasonable 20 K%.

While Rasmus’ walks have decreased, his success at the plate has increased – at least in May. After bottoming out with a .212 average in May, Rasmus is heating up with the summer weather. So far this month, the 22-year-old outfielder is just four hits shy of his total for the entire month of May. His 14 hits in just nine games has been good for a .452 average.

Interestingly, he has used his good speed to swipe just one base this season, in as many attempts. In previous minor league seasons, Rasmus has nabbed as many as 27 bases. Defensively, Rasmus plays a very good outfield and he has plus range and a powerful arm.

Rasmus is still young and he has a long way to go to become a star player in the Majors. The talent is there, but there is also some lingering concern over his disappointing 2008 season in triple-A.

I am not a fan of Japanese veteran pitchers being considered for the Rookie of the Year awards. But because of the lack of options in the National League, right-hander Kenshin Kawakami is going to receive some attention. The soon-to-be 34-year-old pitcher spent 10 seasons in the Japanese Central League and twice won 17 games.

He had a rude welcome to Major League Baseball as he posted a 7.06 through April during the first four starts of his North American career. His overall numbers were not bad, but five home runs definitely hurt. Kawakami rebounded in May and posted a 3.03 ERA over five starts – and he did not allow a ball to leave the yard during that stretch.

He has been hittable throughout the year with 65 hits allowed in 64.1 innings of work. His control has been OK, although not as good as it was in Japan, and he has a walk rate 3.50 BB/9. His strikeout rate is a respectable 7.13 K/9. Opponents’ contact rate against Kawakami (79.5%) is actually lower than it is against Toronto’s Roy Halladay (79.7%), a legitimate Cy Young award candidate in the American League.

The good news for the Rookie of the Year race in the National League is that there is still plenty of time for a player such as Milwaukee’s Mat Gamel to get hot and run away with the award. Or perhaps someone like Jordan Schafer, of the Atlanta Braves, can return from his exile to the minors with a renewed approach. If Jordan Zimmermann can gain a little more consistency in Washington, then he is another candidate to consider, even if he does play for a pretty bad club.

My, how time flies. It’s already June and the 2009 MLB Amateur Draft takes place today, which will cause an (exciting) influx of talent into the sport. But there are already some pretty gifted, young players in Major League Baseball. A number of those players are currently vying for the American League Rookie of the Year award. If you sift through all the names, two players float to the surface: Texas’ Elvis Andrus and Detroit’s Rick Porcello.

When the season began, there weren’t many people (outside of Texas and Detroit) that thought these two players would be in the thick of the Rookie of the Year race at this point of the season. It’s not that these two players aren’t talented – they are, and have been at the top of their organizations’ prospect charts (Andrus was signed by Atlanta and traded to Texas) since they signed as amateurs – but they are the youngest players in the Majors at the age of 20. As well, Porcello was just drafted out of high school in 2007 and, after signing too late to play that year, he spent just one year in the minors, which is virtually unheard of for a prep prospect.

So, to this point, which player deserves the Rookie of the Year award? One of the most exciting things about comparing these two players is the fact that both 20-year-old rookies are playing for first-place clubs, so they’re both contributing to a winning team. The biggest difference between the two players is that Andrus is a position player (shortstop), while Porcello is a starting pitching. Andrus likely gets the immediate edge because he impacts his club everyday, while Porcello takes to the mound once every five days. Unfair, perhaps, but a valid point nonetheless.

Currently, Andrus is hitting a solid .276/.330/.405 with three home runs and nine stolen bases in 12 attempts. In 49 games (163 at-bats), the Venezuelan shortstop has plate rates of 6.3 BB% and 13.% K%. Obviously, he’s a bit of a free swinger with a low walk rate, but his strikeout rate shows that he makes good contact. His line-drive rate of almost 20% shows that he’s not just flicking his bat at the ball to make contact with non-strikes; He’s hitting the ball with some authority.

As well, Andrus is playing to his strengths with a ground-ball rate of 57.2%. He’s not a power hitter, so he’s putting the ball on the ground (or on the line) and good things have been happening. Another encouraging number is the BABIP rate of .304. He hasn’t been very lucky with his balls in play, so we can expect a few more to drop in over the course of the season, which could increase his batting average even more.

We also, of course, need to discuss Andrus’ defense because, well, that’s the main reason he’s in the Majors. The gifted fielder has already received some consideration for a Gold Glove. His fielding percentage is a little below the league norm, but that can be blamed somewhat on the fact that Andrus gets to a lot more balls than the average fielder. His RF/g (range factor per game) is 5.16, compared to the league average of 3.94. Obviously, Andrus is impacting the club with his glove just as much as with his bat, if not more.

Porcello, on the other hand, had a bit of a slow start to the year and lost three of his first four decisions (Like it or not, win totals seems to be a popular category amongst RoY voters). However, the young hurler then went on a tear in May and won all five of his starts. In those five starts, the New Jersey native allowed just five runs in total.

Overall, in 11 starts on the season, Porcello has a 3.98 ERA, but his FIP is 5.10 which suggests he’s been getting a lot of help from his fielders. That’s not surprising considering that he’s a ground-ball pitcher who lives and dies by his defense. The right-hander has a ground-ball rate of 55.4%. However, when batters get the ball in the air against Porcello, they usually hit it hard and he’s already allowed 10 home runs (17.1 HR/FB) while pitching in a spacious home ballpark.

Despite putting a lot of balls in play (His strikeout rate is just 5.31 K/9), Porcello has allowed just 59 hits in 61 innings of work. For such a young pitcher, he controls the strike zone very well and he’s walked just 20 batters (2.95 BB/9). He is struggling a bit in the splits column. Porcello has handled right-handed batters very well (.186 batting average) but he’s allowed a line of .300/.362/.500 to left-handed batters. An improved changeup (which he uses just 9.3% of the time) might help to combat those troublesome match-ups.

At this point, my feeling would be that Andrus deserves the Rookie of the Year award a little more than Porcello, who is showing that there is still some work to be done when you look at his FIP and HR/FB rate. As for those actually voting on the award, they will likely be attracted to Andrus’ flashy play and the fact that Texas has improved significantly over last year – in no small part because of Andrus’ defense, which has allowed the Rangers’ pitchers to put balls in play with confidence.

Regardless of who is deserving of the award, both teams should be incredibly excited for the future. Both rookies are building solid foundations for what should be excellent MLB careers.

The moment we have all been waiting for is almost here. The 2009 MLB Amateur Draft will begin on Tuesday, June 9 at 6 pm Eastern time with the first round airing live on the MLB Network. MLB.com will be streaming the first three rounds of the draft (plus the supplemental rounds), all of which will occur on June 9. The remainder of the draft (the other 47 rounds) will be spread out over the following two days (June 10 and 11).

In 2008, the Tampa Bay Rays selected Georgia high school shortstop Tim Beckham with the first overall pick. Pittsburgh took Vanderbilt University third baseman Pedro Alvarez with the second selection, followed by Kansas City, which nabbed Florida prep first baseman Eric Hosmer.

The Washington Nationals organization has the first overall pick and is expected to take San Diego State right-hander Stephen Strasburg, the consensus best player available. University of North Carolina outfielder Dustin Ackley is expected to go second overall to Seattle. After that, things get murky. The Philadelphia Phillies will be the last organization to pick in the draft when it makes the 75th selection. The club gave its first-round pick (27th overall) to Seattle when it signed free agent outfielder Raul Ibanez, which has turned out pretty good for Philadelphia, so far.

For more than a month now, Fangraphs.com has been reviewing each teams past three drafts, as well as offering some insight into how each club might approach the 2009 draft. Links to each of those reviews is listed below in 2009 draft order (Just click on the team’s name). Be sure to check back with Fangraphs after the draft for post-draft analysis.

First Round
1. Washington Nationals
2. Seattle Mariners
3. San Diego Padres
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Baltimore Orioles
6. San Francisco Giants
7. Atlanta Braves
8. Cincinnati Reds
9. Detroit Tigers
10. Washington Nationals (Compensation)
11. Colorado Rockies
12. Kansas City Royals
13. Oakland Athletics
14. Texas Rangers
15. Cleveland Indians
16. Arizona Diamondbacks
17. Arizona Diamondbacks (Compensation)
18. Florida Marlins
19. St. Louis Cardinals
20. Toronto Blue Jays
21. Houston Astros
22. Minnesota Twins
23. Chicago White Sox
24. Los Angeles Angels (Compensation)
25. Los Angeles Angels (Compensation)
26. Milwaukee Brewers
27. Seattle Mariners (Compensation)
28. Boston Red Sox
29. New York Yankees (Compensation)
30. Tampa Bay Rays
31. Chicago Cubs
32. Colorado Rockies (Compensation)

Supplemental First Round
36. Los Angeles Dodgers

Second Round
72. New York Mets
75. Philadelphia Phillies

2008 Draft Slot: Fifth overall
Top Pick: Buster Posey, C, Florida State University
Best Pick: Buster Posey
Keep an Eye On: Brandon Crawford, SS, UCLA (4th round)
Notes: I’ve been on the Brandon Crawford bandwagon for a couple months now, and the reputation for having a good glove but no bat is starting to be shed. After a very good performance in A-ball, Crawford is already in double-A, although the strikeouts are starting to catch up to him. LHP Scott Barnes (St. John’s University) is another quality sleeper to keep an eye on. Supplemental first round pick Conor Gillaspie has already been in the Majors, but it was a contract stipulation, and it was not based on his production (He’s having a respectable, but unspectacular, season in ’09). Buster Posey, on the other hand, is knocking on the door for a promotion to double-A.

2007 Draft Slot: 10th overall
Top Pick: Madison Bumgarner, LHP, North Carolina high school
Best Pick: Madison Bumgarner
Worst Pick: Wendell Fairley, OF, Mississippi high school (Supplemental first round)
Notes: What is in the water in North Carolina…? Prospects just seem to come out of the woodwork, whether it’s through the prep or the college ranks. Madison Bumgarner, in less than two full years, has risen to double-A and is one of the Top 3 pitching prospects in all of baseball. The club’s other first-round pick, Tim Alderson, is another excellent pitching prospect, who was also taken out of high school and is also in double-A. With six choices before the second round, the club made a number of overdrafts to save money, rather than really reap the benefits of the once-in-a-decade (or more) opportunity to restock the system. Picks such as Wendell Fairley (29th overall), Jackson Williams (43rd) and Charlie Culberson (51st) were all picked well ahead of where many teams had them ranked going into the draft.

2006 Draft Slot: 10th overall
Top Pick: Tim Lincecum, RHP, University of Washington
Best Pick: Um, Tim Lincecum
Worst Pick: Mike McBryde, OF, Florida Atlantic (5th round)
Notes: Tim Lincecum is, as you likely know, already one of the best pitchers in the National League. The club lacked a second round pick thanks to its foray into the free agent market. Supplemental first round draft pick Emmanuel Burriss is contributing in the Majors right now. California prep pick Clayton Tanner (3rd round) is moving slowly, but the southpaw is having some solid pro results. Mike McBryde has not been a terrible pick, but he’s a tweener and is looking at a career as a triple-A outfielder and occasional injury fill-in at the MLB level… Not bad work if you can get it.

2009 Draft Slot: Sixth overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): They take the best player available and do a great job of it
MLB Club Need: First base, Relief pitching
Organizational Need: Depth just about everywhere on the diamond
Organizational Strength: Pitching, although the depth is not there, Shortstop
Notes: The Giants organization has a very straight forward draft this season with no extra picks and no lost selections. The club will have the opportunity to take an impact player at No. 6, should it choose to. Everyone knows the organization needs quality hitting prospects but the best draftees available in this spot project to be pitchers. Prep right-hander Tyler Matzek is a name being associated with the Giants by most reputable mock drafts (Baseball America, ESPN, Baseball Prospectus).

2008 Draft Slot: 15th overall
Top Pick: Ethan Martin, RHP, Georgia high school
Best Pick: Ethan Martin
Keep an Eye On: Devaris Gordon, SS, Florida community college (4th round)
Notes: The club nabbed a number of interesting names outside of the first round including RHP Josh Lindblom (2nd), OF Kyle Russell (3rd), Tom Gordon’s son SS Devaris Gordon (4th), IF Tony Delmonico (6th) and LHP Cole St. Clair (7th). Lindblom is already in double-A despite a slow start to the season. Russell has some mammoth raw power but he strikes out a lot (more than 30% in pro ball). He’s maintained a good average so far thanks to very high (and unsustainable) BABIP rates. Gordon has a career .300 average and has already stolen 29 bases so far this season in low-A ball. He’s not showing enough patience at the plate, but his ceiling is looking higher than many thought it would be. Delmonico is hitting well in pro ball, but his development has been slowed with a move behind the plate. At one point, St. Clair was a potential No. 1 draft pick but he’s a pitcher that attended Rice University… In other words, he’s hurt a lot. Martin is struggling with his control in low-A ball, but he’s putting up some nice numbers for a recent pick that was a two-way player in high school.

2007 Draft Slot: 20th overall
Top Pick: Chris Withrow, RHP, Texas high school
Best Pick: Andrew Lambo, OF/1B, California high school (4th round)
Worst Pick: James Adkins, LHP, University of Tennessee (Supplemental first round)
Notes: There were some concerns with Andrew Lambo’s makeup, but his bat has done most of his talking in pro ball and the outfielder is already in double-A at the age of 20. RHP Kyle Blair slipped in the draft due to signability and he went to the University of San Diego, where he’s developing nicely and could be a 2010 first round pick if the upward trend continues. Chris Withrow has been slowed by some injuries, as well as some control issues. James Adkins has been a disappointment to this point due mostly to too many hits allowed (9.9 H/9 in his pro career) and too few strikeouts (4.31 K/9 in 2009 at double-A).

2006 Draft Slot: 7th overall
Top Pick: Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Texas high school
Best Pick: Clayton Kershaw
Worst Pick: Preston Mattingly, SS, Indiana high school (Supplemental first round)
Notes: It’s hard to argue with Clayton Kershaw being the best Dodger pick in this draft. The high school draftee is already taking a regular turn in the club’s rotation. The organization’s second first-round pick, Bryan Morris, was sent to Boston for Manny Ramirez. After two lackluster low-A seasons, Preston Mattingly (Supplemental first round) is showing some signs of life in high-A. He is, though, not walking enough (2.8 BB%) and striking out too much (35 K%). He might develop into a utility player. The Dodgers’ activity in the free agent market led to the loss of the club’s second and third round selections. Unsigned 14th round pick RHP Alex White (North Carolina high school) could be a first rounder in 2009.

2009 Draft Slot: 36th overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): Prep players, often pitchers
MLB Club Need: Relief pitching
Organizational Need: Left-handed pitching, Left field, Second base
Organizational Strength: Shortstop, Third base
Notes: The Dodgers organization gave up its first round pick to the Arizona Diamondbacks for signing free agent second baseman Orlando Hudson. The club probably does not regret the decision one bit. The Dodgers picked up a supplemental first round pick (36th overall) for losing Derek Lowe to Atlanta. The organization also has two picks in the second round – its original selection (65th), plus the Braves’ second round pick (56th) for the Lowe signing). The organization loves to grab prep players – especially pitchers.

2008 Draft Slot: 25th overall
Top Pick: Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky University
Best Pick: Christian Friedrich
Keep an Eye On: Charlie Blackmon, OF, Georgia Tech University (2nd round)
Notes: The Rockies organization was very lucky that Christian Friedrich fell into its lap. He just kept sliding in the draft for no good reason and he’s had a very nice start to his pro career. Second rounder Charlie Blackmon has also had a good beginning to his career and could develop into a solid everyday center fielder or, at worst, a useful fourth or platoon outfielder. Arizona State’s Kiel Roling (6th round) is hitting .343/.421/.564 in his young pro career spanning parts of two seasons. The bad news is that he was drafted as a catcher but has solely played first base. With just three homers in 31 low-A games this season, the power may not be there to be an everyday first baseman. Keep an eye on RHP Ethan Hollingsworth (4th round), too.

2007 Draft Slot: Eighth overall
Top Pick: Casey Weathers, RHP, Vanderbilt University
Best Pick: Casey Weathers
Worst Pick: Brian Rike, OF, Louisiana Tech University (2nd round)
Notes: It seems that (almost) every time a club takes a reliever in the first round it backfires. Luckily for Rockies fans, in Casey Weathers‘ case it’s an injury that has slowed his development (Tommy John surgery) and not a regression of skills. He was throwing fairly well before the injury and should come back batter than ever. Even so, every team out there… Repeat after me: Don’t take a reliever with a Top 10 pick… Don’t take a reliever with a Top 10 pick… Don’t take a… As for Brian Rike, his average has dropped from his debut at .296 to .247 in 2008 to .213 in 2009. The power has also diminished each season.

2006 Draft Slot: Second overall
Top Pick: Greg Reynolds, RHP, Stanford University
Best Pick: Michael McKenry, C, Middle Tennessee State (7th round)
Worst Pick: Greg Reynolds
Notes: There is still some head-scratching going on as to why the Rockies took Greg Reynolds over Brad Lincoln, but both players have been slowed by injuries and neither one has reached their potential. Reynolds wasn’t a terrible pick but he’s had a lot of bad luck and his stuff has not looked nearly as good in pro ball as it did in college. The club really got very little out of this draft. The best two players were catcher Michael McKenry and right-hander Brandon Hynick (8th round), both of whom might eek out some Major League playing time.

2009 Draft Slot: 11th overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): College pitchers
MLB Club Need: Relief pitching, Third base, Left field
Organizational Need: Right field, First base, Left-handed pitching
Organizational Strength: Shortstop, Second base, Center field
Notes: The Rockies organization is poised to add some talent to the system with the 11th overall pick, as well as the final pick of the first round (32nd overall) after losing free agent reliever Brian Fuentes to the Los Angeles Angels. The club also has a supplemental first round pick (34th overall) relating to the same winter transaction. The club has been linked to a number of players (all college) including SS Grant Green, OF Tim Wheeler, RHP Alex White, and RHP Mike Leake.

2008 Draft Slot: 23rd overall
Top Pick: Allan Dykstra, 1B, Wake Forest University
Best Pick: Jaff Decker, OF, Arizona high school (Supplemental first round)
Keep an Eye On: Logan Forsythe, 3B, University of Arkansas (Supplemental first round)
Notes: Allan Dykstra almost did not sign with the Padres after a physical raised some questions on an old injury suffered by the first baseman. He had a good (brief) debut but is struggling to hit .200 this season in low-A ball. He is, though, walking more than 20 percent in his career, so maybe he’s being a bit to patient – especially against young pitchers that throw a lot of cookies. The Padres had a nice draft and you could throw the “keep an eye on” header on a number of players including: 3B Logan Forsythe, 3B James Darnell and 2B Cole Figueroa. Forsythe is showing some power in high-A, while also hitting .329 with more walks than strikeouts. Darnell is also walking a lot one level lower, but he’s striking out at a higher rate.

2007 Draft Slot: 23rd overall
Top Pick: Nick Schmidt, LHP, University of Arkansas
Best Pick: Schmidt… because no one else has stepped up…
Worst Pick: Danny Payne, OF, Georgia Tech (Supplemental first round)
Notes: The Padres organization had eight picks before the third round, but the club just did not do quite as good of a scouting job in 2007 as it did in 2008 with fewer picks. First pick Nick Schmidt’s career was delayed by Tommy John surgery but, after missing all of 2008, he’s back striking out a lot of batters (10.62 K/9) – but he’s also walking more than five batters per nine innings. OF Kellen Kulbacki (Supplemental 1st round) had a solid 2008 season but it was in a very, very good hitter’s park and he struggled at double-A in 2009 before getting hurt. The club had five supplemental first round picks in total and none of them have stepped up consistently, but none have outright disappointed either – although Danny Payne is getting close.

2006 Draft Slot: 17th overall
Top Pick: Matt Antonelli, 3B/2B, Wake Forest
Best Pick: Matt Latos, RHP, Florida high school (11th round)
Worst Pick: Matt Antonelli
Notes: Rushed through the minors by the organization, Matt Antonelli stopped hitting the moment he reached triple-A and the promotion to the Majors in 2008 did not help at all. Last year, the infielder hit .215 in 128 triple-A games. This season… .158 in 21 games. The club’s supplemental first round pick, Kyler Burke, was traded to Chicago (NL), where he is showing promise but he’s also developing slowly. Second-round pick Chad Huffman looks like he could develop into a part-time MLB player. RHP Mat Latos was the best of the picks way down in the 11th round, where he slid due to signability. He received $1.2 million as a draft-and-follow when he signed just before the 2007 draft.

2009 Draft Slot: Third overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): College players, most often hitters
MLB Club Need: Center field, Shortstop, Catcher, Starting pitching
Organizational Need: Catcher, Shortstop, Left-handed pitching
Organizational Strength: First base, Third base
Notes: The organization has had some well-documented foibles in its first-round selections. The news surrounding the club’s third overall pick in 2009 has not been encouraging, as the rumor mill suggests the club will “go cheap” in order to spend more money on the international market, which opens up in July. Then again, another rumor had the Padres looking at prep outfielder Donovan Tate, who is asking for $6 million despite being a very raw (but athletic) baseball player.