For much the same reason that he has published weekly statistical reports on the Arizona Fall League over the past month (such as this latest one from Wednesday), the author is publishing here a combined statistical report for the various Caribbean winter leagues — again, not necessarily because such reports are of great utility for evaluating players, but because they provide a means by which to participate in those leagues which doesn’t also require a substantial investment in transport and lodging.

In this case, what the author has done is to identify the regressed hitting and pitching leaders in the Dominican Winter, Mexican Pacific, Puerto Rican, and Venezuelan Winter Leagues separately*. What he’s then done is to combine the hitting and pitching leaders of those leagues into a pair of top-10 lists, which one can find below. Note: all ages are as of July 1, 2013; all organizations, as of the end of regular-season play. Last week’s report on the Caribbean leagues is available here.

*The Puerto Rican League having just commenced play this past week.

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As Miami infielder Ed Lucas himself has reminded the author, Miami infielder Ed Lucas ought to be included among the minor-league free agents who recorded a 0.5 WAR or better in 2013. Lucas had previously been employed by the Angels.

Such authorities on the matter as Paul the Apostle and late American singer Whitney Houston have suggested — sometimes in more, sometimes in fewer words — that love is the greatest gift of all. It’s quite possibly the case, that. Actually testing the hypothesis presents difficulties, of course. That said, one hears few arguments to the contrary.

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The author has published each of the last four weeks (One, Two, Three, Four), in these pages, a statistical report on the Arizona Fall League not necessarily because such a thing is of great utility to prospect analysis, but more because, for those of us not currently present in the Greater Phoenix area, it’s one of the few ways to participate in that very compelling league.

What follows, for the pleasure of the readership, is the fifth edition of this site’s weekly AFL statistical report.

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Recently, for the electronic pages of Baseball America, Therron Brockish provided a scouting report from the Arizona Fall League on Boston third-base prospect Garin Cecchini. As part of that report, Brockish graded each of Cecchini’s tools on the 20-80 scale (or 2-8 scale, depending) commonly utilized by scouts, where 50 represents major-league average and every 10 points is equal roughly to a standard deviation from same.

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What a difference six months can make.

A Major League Baseball club can open the season in April with an impressive collection of players on its 25-man roster but that team’s picture will no doubt be significantly rearranged come September. Look to the 2013 Toronto Blue Jays for an example of this statement.

Prior to the season, the club was picked by many people — whose job it is to make these sorts of predictions, and make them well — as the favorites to win the American League East division. Instead, the club stumbled out of the gate and key players suffered significant injuries, while others were wildly inconsistent or down right disappointing.

Some big league organizations can easily rebound from catastrophe that was the Jays’ 2013 season. The Cardinals, for example, reached the World Series in ’13 while regularly utilizing seven rookies. The Dodgers reached the National League Championship Series despite injuries to key veterans Hanley Ramirez and Matt Kemp, thanks to strong contributions from June call-up Yasiel Puig and Korean import Hyun-Jin Ryu.

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For much the same reason that he has published statistical reports of varying degrees of maturity for the Arizona Fall League over the past several weeks, the author is publishing here a combined statistical report for the various Caribbean winter leagues that have started play — again, not necessarily because such reports are of great utility for evaluating players, but because they provide a means by which to participate in those leagues which doesn’t also require a substantial investment in transportation and lodging.

In this case, what the author has done is to identify the regressed hitting and pitching leaders in the Dominican Winter, Mexican Pacific, and Venezuelan Leagues separately*. What he’s then done is to combine the hitting and pitching leaders of those leagues into a pair of top-10 lists, which one can find below. Note: all ages are as of July 1, 2013.

*The fourth major Caribbean league, the Puerto Rican League, doesn’t commence until tomorrow.

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Over the past three weeks, the author has published an entirely premature statistical report and then a slightly less premature one of those and then, most recently, an almost not premature statistical report on the Arizona Fall League — not necessarily because such a thing is of great utility to prospect analysis, but more because, for those of us not currently present in the Greater Phoenix area, it’s one of the few ways to participate in that very compelling league.

What follows is fourth edition of this site’s weekly AFL statistical report — itself something that is become increasingly relevant for reasons the author would be embarrassed to note for someone as smart as the reader.

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Yesterday, in these electronic pages, the author presented five notable major-league equivalent batter lines (MLE) as calculated by Jared Cross’s Steamer projection system. Today, the author presents a very similar thing, except for pitchers.

Indeed, below are five notable pitcher MLEs from the 2013 season, where notable appears to be defined as belonging to a player who (a) was 27 or younger in 2013, (b) received little (or nothing) in the way of major-league playing time in 2013, (c) received little (or nothing) in the way of exposure in 2013, and (d) recorded over half his appearances as a starter.

For each pitcher are included his translated strikeout and walk rates according to Steamer, and the kwERA that such rates would produce. Following that (and marked by an asterisk to denote that the author has taken terrible, terrible liberties with the Steamer data) is an estimate of the relevant pitcher’s translated WAR over 150 innings.

Name: Paolo Espino, 26, RHP (Link)
Organization: Cleveland Level: Triple-A (International)
MLE: 62.0 IP, 267 TBF, 21.8% K, 7.5% BB, 3.68 kwERA, 2.5 WAR150*
Notes: A brief inspection of Espino’s player page reveals that he has spent the past four years splitting time between Double-A Akron and Triple-A Columbus. Not a ringing endorsement, that, for a 26-year-old pitcher. He finished the season, however, by recording a 38:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio over five starts and 29.0 innings for the latter club — i.e. a more promising thing. Reports on Espino’s present repertoire appear to be entirely absent from the internet. An inning’s worth of video from Espino’s August 26th start against Louisville (during which start he posted a 7:0 K:BB in 6.2 IP) reveals that the right-hander at least throws a curveball with which minor-leaguers have some difficulty.

Like here, to Louisville’s Denis Phipps for a strikeout:

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In his capacity as a VIP baseball writer, the present author has access to the glorious major-league equivalent (MLE) data produced by Jared Cross’s Steamer projection system. In his capacity as a very irresponsible citizen, the present author has decided to present here five notable batter MLEs from the 2013 season, where notable appears to be defined as belonging to a player who (a) was 27 or younger in 2013, (b) received little (or nothing) in the way of major-league playing time in 2013, and also (c) received little (or nothing) in the way of exposure in 2013.

It’s for the second and third reasons there that players such as Seattle’s Nick Franklin, Minnesota’s Miguel Sano, and Houston’s George Springer — despite all having produced formidable MLE lines — are absent from the following.

Offensive and defensive value (denoted as Off and Def, respectively) are expressed relative to league average. Offensive value accounts for baserunning, in addition to batting. Defensive value accounts both for defensive runs and positional adjustment. Both metrics were recently explored by Dave Cameron in these pages.

All figures marked by an asterisk (*) denote instances in which the author has taken terrible, terrible liberties with the Steamer data. Overall baserunning value, for example, has been estimated irresponsibly using Steamer’s translated stolen-base data. Fielding and positional values, moreover, have been estimated even more irresponsibly according to positional adjustment, available defensive metrics, and scouting reports. WAR550, meanwhile, is an estimate of the player’s translated WAR over 550 plate appearances.

Name: Abraham Almonte, 24, OF (Link)
Organization: Seattle Level: Triple-A (Pacific Coast)
MLE: 396 PA, .289/.361/.429 (.329 BABIP), +11 Off*, -2 Def*, 3.4 WAR550*
Notes: Almonte might very well end up belonging to that class of outfielders who has neither the speed native to center fielders nor the power typically attendant to corner outfielders, but one who simultaneously provides value to his club, nonetheless. He controlled the plate excellently at Triple-A Tacoma, recording walk and strikeout rates there of 12.4% and 16.7%, respectively. He did that less excellently in 82 late-season plate appearances with the Mariners (7.3% BB, 25.6% K), although still managed a roughly league-average batting line over that stretch.

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During the FOX telecast of Thursday night’s Game Two contest between Boston and St. Louis, there was some speculation among those gathered about what sort of players could have possibly been selected in the 2012 draft ahead of 19th-overall pick Michael Wacha, the Texas A&M product who has pitched excellently for the Cardinals this postseason just a year-plus after having been acquired.

In part, such feelings are understandable. One finds, in Wacha, a young pitcher excelling at the highest level under very demanding circumstances. That Wacha was chosen by the Cardinals — an organization whose player-development department appears, not unlike an early 1980s iteration of Tom Cruise, to have all the right moves — likely only compounds the impression that Wacha’s talents were there to be seen, had anyone been looking properly.

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