Recently, Tampa Bay Rays first-round pick Taylor Guerrieri received a tremendous write up for Bullpen Banter by JD Sussman. In it, the young right-hander showed enough to “profile as a top of the rotation arm.” Prior to Guerrieri’s next start, he tweaked something during pre-game warm ups and wound up being a late scratch. After a few days rest and routine bullpen session, I lucked into seeing Guerrieri last Sunday in Auburn, New York.
This week we’re reviewing the annual pre-season Top 100 prospects list that originally ran in mid-March. Below you’ll find prospects 75 through 51 in the original order they appeared. Yesterday, we looked at prospects 100-76.
75. Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Tampa Bay: The 24th overall selection during the 2011 draft, Guerrieri was held back in extended spring training by the ultra-cautious Tampa Bay Rays. The right-hander has 14 strikeouts, one walk and an above-average ground-ball rate in 13.0 innings. (Value Static)
Last Friday night, Washington Nationals 2012 third-round pick Brett Mooneyham made his professional debut in Auburn, New York, against the Hudson Valley Renegades of the New York-Penn League. For those not familiar with the plight of the 6-foot-5 lefty, he initially spurned a seven-figure offer from the San Diego Padres prior to spending four years at Stanford battling inconsistency and injury. In the end, Mooneyham not becoming a top college starter may have cost him upwards of a million dollars. It was a pretty good prospect “get” for me – especially with this being a debut of a relatively high-profile prospect. However, had this been 2008 and not 2012, Mooneyham’s profile as a top prospect would have been much higher.
Creating the annual FanGraphs Top 100 prospect list is always harder than it seems – much more difficult than the Top 15 prospect lists. Ranking the best prospects in baseball requires comparing apples to oranges to pears to plums, with hitters versus pitchers, triple-A hitters versus short-season prospects, and raw Latin players versus advanced college athletes. With that said it gets a little bit easier each year and three months later I remain quite happy with the 2012 list.
Below you’ll find prospects 100 to 76. We’ll look at 51-75 on Wednesday.
100. Garin Cecchini, 3B, Boston: The young third baseman is 30-for-33 in steal attempts but his power has yet to develop so it remains to be seen if he has the skill set for the hot corner. (Value Up)
After a 16-hour trip by car broken up into two days by nasty storms in Virginia which left a reported two million people without power, we (the Newman family) arrived in Seneca Falls, NY with a couple of hours to spare before I headed to my first New York-Penn League game in Auburn, a small town about 25 minutes away. Having never been to a “Penn League” game previously, I was curious to see the level of competition considering it’s the most advanced short season level before moving into full-season baseball. Additionally, three of the four teams I was planning to see — Auburn (Nationals), Hudson Valley (Rays), Lowell (Red Sox), Williamsport (Phillies) — have affiliates in the South Atlantic League making a second look in 2013 likely for many of the players involved.
And while the quality of play is noticeably less than full-season leagues I’ve experienced, it has been great to familiarize myself with a new league and spend a few games at the Auburn Doubledays home park, as the atmosphere has really reinvigorated me for the second half. Between the solid crowds, fantastic baseball weather, polite people who actually try to avoid my shots and ushers who ask if I mind being moved when I don’t have an actual ticket, I’m ready to rent a place in the area and just call upstate New York home for the months of June and July next season.
It’s not often I head to the park having never heard of a catcher only to leave believing he was a future big leaguer. The last time it happened was in 2010 After seeing Giants Hector Sanchez gun down an opposing runner at second base with a 1.93 second rocket from his knees and swing the bat from both sides of the plate. More recently, Gabriel Lino left a similar impression in April as the starting catcher for Dylan Bundy’s professional debut as a member of the Baltimore Orioles organization. With his being dealt to the Phillies as part of the Jim Thome deal, Lino finds himself in an organization that has had quite a knack for developing young catchers in recent years.
Arizona Diamondbacks third base prospect Matt Davidson began the 2012 season in quite an offensive groove. In April, his .330/.450/.549 slash line left the 21-year-old amongst Southern League Leaders. In fact, his 16 home runs to date is still tops amongst qualified hitters and double any player considered age appropriate for the league. However, Davidson’s numbers have been in steady decline as the weather has warmed up, leaving prospect followers questioning how well his bat will translate at the major league level.
Video after the jump
Christian Bethancourt, C, Atlanta Braves
Current Level: AA
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: 7th
Current Value: Down
This past off-season I spoke with a front office person who had very glowing things to say about Bethancourt – especially on defense. The backstop is continuing to impress observers with his play in the field in 2012 but his offense has been MIA at the double-A level. Bethancourt is hitting a modest .257 and both his on-base percentage and slugging percentage are below .300. His OPS sits at .557. With just three extra base hits on the year (all doubles), the Panama native hasn’t shown any improvements in the power department as the year has progressed with just one of those extra baggers coming since the end of April. Still just 20 years old, Bethancourt has a lot of time to turn things around and Atlanta will almost certainly pick up veteran catcher Brian McCann’s 2013 option ($12 million).
Delino DeShields Jr., 2B, Houston Astros
Current Level: A
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: 8th
Current Value: Increasing
When it comes to prospects and stolen bases, Cincinnati’s Billy Hamilton gets all the love. However, former first rounder DeShields has been quietly having a nice year in low-A ball. The 19-year-old second baseman is repeating the level (130 wRC+) after struggling there in 2011 (79 wRC+) but he’s already surpassed his steals from all of last year (30) with 51 in 58 attempts. He’s doing a better job of getting on base, both in terms of hitting for average (.274) and walking (13.4 BB%), and he’s starting to chip away at the too-high strikeout rates. DeShields’ development is going to require patience but the reward could definitely be worth the wait.
As an over slot fourth round pick in the 2010 draft, the New York Yankees awarded Mason Williams with the largest bonus of their draft class. Two years later, Williams possesses a strong set of tools with quickly developing baseball skills. On a loaded Charleston RiverDogs roster, he is the easiest player to project as at least an average regular at the big league level. The young left-handed hitter fits the prototype of a true centerfielder with top-of-the-order offensive abilities to a tee. Additionally, the fact he has room to grow both physically and mentally points to an even higher ceiling if everything comes together.
Video after the jump.