Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Boston at Minnesota | 20:10 ET
Wright (74.2 IP, 105 xFIP-) vs. Duffey (47.0 IP, 86 xFIP-)
The author’s dumb NERD metric is essentially the product of an attempt to reverse engineer, and reconstruct by way of objective measures, the tastes of those who’d read a site like FanGraphs. In most cases, the dumb NERD metric works sufficiently well. On Wednesday, for example, Noah Syndergaard faced Jameson Taillon in an encounter that represented the latter’s major-league debut. That game received the highest NERD score for the day by a reasonable margin. This would appear to represent an argument on behalf of the byzantine algorithm which produces NERD.

Conceiving of a scenario, however, in which this Boston-Minnesota contest facilitates more pleasure than the sort likely to be provided by the Dodgers-Giants game later in the evening — a game which features Clayton Kershaw, for example — poses greater challenges. Fortunately for everyone involved, the consequences of such a thing are basically non-extant.

In any case, the reasons for the relative optimism concerning the Red Sox-Twins game are twofold. First, one finds in the Red Sox a club that has produced the best adjusted batting line since the 1931 Yankees. Regression is bound to temper their achievement over a full season. Still, the point remains: few clubs hit at this level as a collective group. Also of some interest is Tyler Duffey, a former fifth-rounder with below-average arm speed who’s nevertheless recorded fielding-independent numbers about 15% better than average.

Readers’ Preferred Television Broadcast: Boston.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Cleveland at Seattle | 22:10 ET
Tomlin (61.0 IP, 101 xFIP-) vs. Karns (61.2 IP, 95 xFIP-)
Cleveland last appeared in a proper postseason series in 2007; Seattle, in 2001. Currently, the clubs possess a 69% and 45% probability, respectively, of qualifying for the divisional series. The odds, then, of one or the other of them ending their plaoyff drought would appear strong. Much better than the reader’s odds, certainly, of escaping the darkness that devours us all.

Readers’ Preferred Television Broadcast: Seattle.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York NL at Pittsburgh | 19:05 ET
Syndergaard (70.2 IP, 50 xFIP-) vs. Taillon (MLB Debut)
The author is quoting his own grotesque self when he declares that Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard has produced the lowest adjusted xFIP among qualified pitchers since the entire time during which that metric has been available. The author is quoting other people when he notes that Pirates right-hander Jameson Taillon, who’s scheduled to record his major-league debut tonight, is one of baseball’s top prospects. Or, is quoting other people from 2013, at least — i.e., the most recent season before this one during which Taillon accumulated even one professional inning. Taillon, now 24 years old, has been excellent this season after a two-year hiatus, producing the top strikeout- and walk-rate differential among all Triple-A qualifiers while also sitting at 94-96 mph.

Readers’ Preferred Television Broadcast: New York NL.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Toronto at Detroit | 19:10 ET
Sanchez (72.1 IP, 79 xFIP-) vs. Boyd (16.0 IP, 93 xFIP-)
On the strength both of excellent statistical indicators and also improved arm speed, left-hander Matt Boyd finished atop the author’s arbitrarily calculated Fringe Five Scoreboard last season. Boyd’s minor-league dominance didn’t “translate seamlessly,” however, to the major leagues: over roughly 60 innings with Toronto and then Detroit, he produced an adjusted xFIP about 30% worse than league average while actually allowing runs at an even faster pace than the fielding-independent numbers would suggest. Not a classic beginning to his career, in other words. Boyd has now recorded two starts for Detroit this season, however, and the results are positive. In 11.1 innings, the 25-year-old has produced a 10:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and overall better-than-average fielding-independent numbers. Of some note, too: 69.9% of his pitches have been strikes, the second-highest figure among pitchers to record 10-plus innings as a starter (behind only Danny Duffy).

Readers’ Preferred Television Broadcast: Detroit.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Tampa Bay at Arizona | 21:40 ET
Archer (66.1 IP, 89 xFIP-) vs. Ray (57.0 IP, 92 xFIP-)
In 2013, Arizona’s Robbie Ray appeared several times among the Fringe Five. What qualified him for inclusion within that weekly exercise were his excellent fielding-independent numbers. Over 148.2 innings between High-A and Double-A, the left-hander (then a Nationals prospect) produced one of the top strikeout rates among minor-league starters — ahead, for example, of Archie Bradley and Lance McCullers. That was encouraging. What rendered him eligible for the Five, however, was his omission from any of the industry’s notable top-100 lists. The reason why, it appears? A lack of arm speed. Ray possessed merely average fastball velocity. Now, however, that’s no longer the case.

Regard, the top-five average four-seam velocities among pitchers who’ve recorded 50-plus innings:

Average Four-Seam Fastball Velocity, Left-Handed Starters

Name	Team	IP	vFA
Robbie Ray	D-backs	57.0	93.5
Carlos Rodon	White Sox	63.1	92.9
Martin Perez	Rangers	72.1	92.9
Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	92.2	92.8
Matt Moore	Rays	62.2	92.7

Minimum 50 innings pitched.

Ray, who’s also passed through the Detroit system en route to Arizona, is now among the hardest-throwing left-handed starters in baseball, and he’s recording numbers commensurate with the stuff.

Readers’ Preferred Television Broadcast: Tampa Bay.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York NL at Miami | 13:10 ET
Harvey (60.1 IP, 101 xFIP-) vs. Fernandez (32.2 IP, 88 xFIP-)
Child prodigy and Ohio native August Fagerstrom explored recently for the benefit of these pages both how (a) the Marlins and Jose Fernandez himself had planned this spring for the right-hander to adopt a more contact-oriented, ground-ball approach in 2016, but then also how (b) Fernandez had produced almost identical numbers so far in 2016 as he had in previous campaigns. In Fernandez’s lone start since Fagerstrom’s piece, however, Fernandez exhibited a more contact-oriented, ground-ball approach.

Regard, an illustrative table:

Jose Fernandez, Pitching (More) to Contact?

Dates	GS	IP	Zone%	K%	BB%	GB%
4/6 to 5/26	10	60.2	49.8%*	36.7%	10.2%	38.4%
5/31	1	7.0	54.6%*	27.3%	0.0%	60.0%

*League average for starters is 48.1%.

One, so motivated, might consider monitoring Fernandez’s approach this game. To monitor it and ask a questions like, “Is he throwing more or less than 50% of his pitches in the zone?” And also: “Is he inducing ground balls on more like 40% or more like 60% of his balls in play?” And also: “By using my time in this way, am I endeavoring to pursue happiness or ignoring my obligations to liberate others from suffering or both or neither?”

Readers’ Preferred Television Broadcast: New York NL.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Toronto at Boston | 16:05 ET
Stroman (74.2 IP, 91 xFIP-) vs. Wright (69.2 IP, 100 xFIP-)
The rules of baseball dictate that, at any given time, a team is permitted to field only eight players plus a pitcher — and, in the case of the American League, an extra “designated” hitter. Given those particular limitations, one is surprised to see the most current iteration of this site’s WAR leaderboard for the last 30 days:

Batter WAR Leaderboard, Last 30 Days

	Name	Team	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	WAR
1	Ben Zobrist	Cubs	109	.418	.509	.648	211	0.6	15.1	1.8	2.1
2	Marcell Ozuna	Marlins	116	.406	.448	.689	204	-0.1	14.3	1.6	2.0
3	Mookie Betts	Red Sox	133	.322	.391	.669	179	1.0	13.5	1.2	2.0
4	Mike Trout	Angels	118	.319	.449	.532	173	2.3	12.5	1.6	1.9
5	David Ortiz	Red Sox	112	.371	.446	.845	233	-1.1	16.5	-2.6	1.8
6	Kyle Seager	Mariners	118	.400	.458	.629	196	-0.1	13.3	0.3	1.8
7	Ian Desmond	Rangers	118	.372	.390	.593	161	2.4	10.9	2.5	1.8
8	Xander Bogaerts	Red Sox	134	.363	.403	.548	156	-0.2	8.6	3.2	1.7
9	Corey Seager	Dodgers	125	.310	.352	.612	161	-0.3	8.8	3.4	1.7
10	Jackie Bradley Jr.	Red Sox	107	.374	.467	.714	212	0.3	14.3	-2.1	1.6

Four Boston players, is what one finds here — despite, as mentioned above, how a club is allowed to deploy only nine hitters in any particular game. Not only have the Red Sox deployed certain players with sufficient regularity to produce runs in volume, but four of those players have produced runs mostly better than anyone else. All four of those Boston players are likely to appear in this game — which the reader can watch or not watch at his or her discretion.

Readers’ Preferred Television Broadcast: Boston.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Seattle at Texas | 20:05 ET
Walker (54.1 IP, 90 xFIP-) vs. Darvish (5.0 IP, 38 xFIP-)
Darvish returned this past Saturday from a Tommy John procedure and the subsequent rehab, recording his first major-league appearance since August of 2014. The results were almost embarrassingly positive. The right-hander produced a 7:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio against just 19 batters over 5.0 innings while also posting an average fastball velocity more than 1 mph harder than his previously established levels. With a view towards best representing the sort of pleasures facilitated by Yu Darvish, the remainder of this brief entry will be delivered by means of video footage — a medium the reader will recognize as easier to consume and largely better than dumb words.

Readers’ Preferred Television Broadcast: Seattle.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Los Angeles NL at Chicago NL | 14:20 ET
Urias (2.2 IP, 192 xFIP-) vs. Hendricks (55.1 IP, 84 xFIP-)
The left-handed Urias’s major-league debut was a success by no measure, really. He didn’t prevent runs particularly well, nor do the fielding-indepedent numbers suggest he really ought to have prevented runs particularly well. On the other hand, one finds that Urias’s start also represents the best one recorded by a pitcher under 20 over the last decade. That it’s also the only such start might constitute a “fly in the ointment” so far as that particular distinction is concerned. But that’s what happens with ointments. Flies are always attempting to enter and remain inside them. One must be vigilant regarding his or her ointment. Protect it from flies. This, if nothing else, is what we’ve learned from Julio Urias.

Readers’ Preferred Television Broadcast: Chicago NL.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Tampa Bay at Kansas City | 20:15 ET
Archer (60.1 IP, 88 xFIP-) vs. Duffy (30.2 IP, 86 xFIP-)
Would you like to know what life is like? Here’s what it’s like. Over his first six starts, Chris Archer produced a 3.22 xFIP but 5.01 ERA. Which is to say, he allowed nearly two more runs per nine innings than one might generally expect given certain predictive indicators. Over his next five starts, however, Archer produced a 4.07 xFIP and 4.18 ERA. Which is to say, he pitched worse in terms of those indicators, but actually conceded fewer earned runs. Now ask yourself, “How’s anyone supposed to learn anything when they get better results with the worse process?” Now continue by answering yourself, “I don’t know, stop harassing me.” This! This is what life is like!

Readers’ Preferred Television Broadcast: Tampa Bay.

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