Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Tampa Bay at Detroit | 16:10 ET
Smyly (49.2 IP, 85 xFIP-) vs. Fulmer (19.1 IP, 85 xFIP-)
The virtues of Drew Smyly as a pitcher are what Thomas Jefferson — and also anyone who possesses some facility with English — might describe as “self-evident.” As for Michael Fulmer’s virtues as a pitcher, those are decidedly less evident at the moment. Because one of the things he’s done is to concede earned runs at a rate about 50% higher than an average pitcher. By this measure, his virtues are rather obscure. But look: he’s produced a fielding-independent line that’s roughly a standard deviation better than the average starter’s. And a sitting fastball velocity more than a standard deviation better. And he’s also more than a standard deviation younger than the average starter. The marginal return on your psychic investment in Michael Fulmer is likely to be enormous. Thanks to Michael Fulmer, you’re going to be flush with psychic currency.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Toronto at Minnesota | 20:10 ET
Sanchez (52.0 IP, 84 xFIP-) vs. Duffey (24.1 IP, 84 xFIP-)
While it’s possible, it’s not at all probable, that all DJ Khaled does “is win.” Or, if his life really is marked by constant victory, it’s almost certainly the product of some seriously risk-averse behavior. For example: has he ever played chess? It’s unlikely that DJ Khaled would defeat a grandmaster, or even a pretty good master. Has he ever tried drugs? Because, when you try drugs, everybody loses. And here one finds merely two examples in which failure, of some sort, is inevitable. With regard to Minnesota right-hander Tyler Duffey, it’s incorrect to say that all he does is win, too. But during his brief major-league career, he’s recorded fielding-independent numbers — and also other kinds of numbers — that suggest he’s likely to win more than he loses. Which isn’t a comment one maybe expected to make about Tyler Duffey two years ago or one year ago.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at New York NL | 19:10 ET
Strasburg (55.0 IP, 73 xFIP-) vs. Harvey (45.2 IP, 95 xFIP-)
What one finds here is a game with considerable promise. Two elite pitcher with easy plus velocity. Two strong clubs, each of which currently possess greater than a 45% chance of winning the division. “Garden-variety excellence,” one might be inclined to call it. Unless, that is, the garden has been started by the author. In which case, the garden is much less impressive. Because the tomato seedlings haven’t even sprouted their true leaves yet. Even though it’s been, like, three weeks. Because he used these peat pots from Agway instead of a plastic starter tray. Even though the gardening book was pretty explicit about don’t use peat pots.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Tampa Bay at Toronto | 19:07 ET
Odorizzi (44.2 IP, 99 xFIP-) vs. Dickey (48.0 IP, 104 xFIP-)
Apart from whatever merits he possesses as a ballplayer, Jake Odorizzi has this other virtue, too — namely, that his name facilitates a brief, phonetics-based Italian lesson. In the States, Odorizzi is the name of a right-handed pitcher. This is self-evident. In Italy, however, “Odorizzi” is something different. Regard: odiare is the verb “to hate.” Riso, meanwhile, is the singular form of the noun signifying either “laughter” or “rice.” Put together, odio risi (OH-dee-oh REETS-ee) means “I hate rices” or “I hate laughters.” The two sentiments are more useful than one might suppose: the average American tourist finds that communicating his or her distaste for rice and laughter composes about 40% of all conversations.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at New York NL | 19:10 ET
Scherzer (52.0 IP, 78 xFIP-) vs. Syndergaard (46.1 IP, 60 xFIP-)
One doesn’t require an unusually complex and only modestly useful algorithm to identify this evening’s encounter between Max Scherzer and Noah Syndergaard as the day’s most compelling. That said, the world is populated by a number of things one doesn’t expressly require — and which persist nevertheless. Like an attractive Jøtul-brand cast-iron stove in the corner of the living room, for example. Or like a table constructed from gas pipe and reclaimed pallet wood that you bought on Etsy and really brings the kitchen together. In conclusion: industrial-chic mailbox, brushed-nickel floating house numbers, strikeouts, average fastball velocity, and primitive entry door with strap hinges.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Arizona | 21:40 ET
Green (MLB Debut) vs. Ray (35.1 IP, 100 xFIP-)
“Who is Chad Green?” is a question likely being asked today by the American public and also periodically by Chad Green himself. The deeper, ontological implications of the question reside outside the scope of this brief entry. What follows, however, are five statements regarding who Chad Green is.

• An 11th-round selection (in 2013) by the Tigers out of Louisville.
• A piece in the trade that sent Justin Wilson to Detroit in December.
• The author of impressive strikeout and walk rates as a professional.
• The owner of a fastball that reaches the mid-90s.
• The owner of maybe less impressive secondary pitches.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Detroit at Baltimore | 13:35 ET
Fulmer (15.0 IP, 83 xFIP-) vs. Gausman (25.0 IP, 88 xFIP-)
Over the first three years and nearly 300 innings of his career, Baltimore’s Kevin Gausman produced better-than-average fielding-independent numbers while conceding actual runs at a worse-than-average rate. Over the first three starts and 15 innings of his career, Detroit’s Michael Fulmer has endured the precise same outcome. Now in his fourth season, Gausman has retained the same basic peripherals — but is preventing runs at a rate roughly 50% better than league average. Is it possible that one, observing Gausman, is observing Michael Fulmer’s future self? And if that is the case, is it dangerous for him to operate in such close proximity to Michael Fulmer’s present self? The answers are to be revealed!

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York NL at Colorado | 20:10 ET
Verrett (21.1 IP, 100 xFIP-) vs. Butler (14.0 IP, 86 xFIP-)
Each of Logan Verrett’s two starts this season have been impressive — both in terms of run prevention and fielding-indepedent indicators. Over two starts and 12.0 innings, Verrett has conceded zero runs while also producing an 87 xFIP- (better than his numbers in relief). This is promising. And unlikely to continue. The probability of Verrett becoming even an average major-league starter would appear low. Neither his statistical track record nor his stuff suggest its likelihood. But here’s something else that’s unlikely: any one person existing in the first place. And yet here we all are, making bad decisions amongst each other.

In conclusion, here’s footage of Verrett’s most effective out-pitch, his slider:

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Houston at Boston | 19:10 ET
McCullers (Season Debut) vs. Wright (41.1 IP, 101 xFIP-)
It was either American rock band 38 Special or ancient and dead Chinese philosopher Laozi who advised the world to “Hold on loosely, but don’t let go. If you cling too tightly, you’re gonna lose it — you’re gonna lose control.” Whatever the precise identity of the author, his/their spiritual wisdom has exerted no little influence over the the Houston Astros, which baseball club has handled Lance McCullers with great care this spring after the right-hander experienced shoulder inflammation in March. He returns to the majors tonight, however, on the strength of a 2015 campaign during which he produced the best adjusted ERA and best adjusted FIP and second-best adjusted xFIP among all rookies who recorded 100 or more innings as a starter. He faces knuckleballer Steven Wright, who has prevented runs with vigor over his first six starts.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York NL at Los Angeles NL | 22:10 ET
Colon (38.1 IP, 81 xFIP-) vs. Kershaw (53.0 IP, 51 xFIP-)
“To hope,” writes Emil Cioran in his pleasantly titled collection Syllogisms of Bitterness, “is to contradict the future.” A compelling sentiment, that — one which, even after a period of reflection, is difficult to discredit. Due to a number of factors — but mostly the all-consuming darkness that lurks just beyond the horizon — life and the living of it lends itself to a native pessimism. This isn’t to suggest, however, that there aren’t brief moments when some manner of hope or anticipation isn’t called for. Consider the case of this particular game, for example. In this corner, one finds Bartolo Colon, a rotund geriatric who radiates cheer. In this other corner, something not unlike The Best There Ever Was, Is, or Will Be. “What will happen?” one asks. “I don’t know,” everyone else answers. “Let’s find out.”

Read the rest of this entry »