Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Boston at Pittsburgh | 19:05 ET
Brandon Workman (82.0 IP, 112 xFIP-, 0.7 WAR) faces Gerrit Cole (117.0 IP, 96 xFIP-, 1.2 WAR). While French theologian John Calvin — and any other number of determinists, religious or otherwise — would likely argue that the outcomes of the various playoff races have been decided already, the editors of FanGraphs are capable only of speaking in probabilities. So far as Pittsburgh’s probability of qualifying for the divisional series is concerned, “almost exactly 50%” is the best answer available to us at the moment. Of greater certainty — one bordering on 100%, in this case — is that Cuban emigre Rusney Castillo will make his second start for Boston tonight in center field.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston Radio or Television.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Games
Chicago AL at Kansas City | 20:10 ET
Texas at Oakland | 22:05 ET
In a development that’s probably unprecedented, but also maybe not unprecedented, this edition of FanGraphs’ NERD Game Scores features two contests. First, Chris Sale (163.0 IP, 74 xFIP-, 5.3 WAR) faces Yordano Ventura (165.0 IP, 100 xFIP-, 2.5 WAR) and then, two hours later, Derek Holland (21.0 IP, 82 xFIP-, 0.9 WAR) faces Jeff Samardzija (197.2 IP, 84 xFIP-, 3.5 WAR). All pitchers, one notes, offer the prospect of Considerable Pleasure, while two of the clubs involved (the Royals and A’s) feature playoff odds — which is to say, in this case, odds of qualifying for the divisional series — uncommonly close to 50%.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Kansas City and Texas Radios.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
San Francisco at Arizona | 21:40 ET
Jake Peavy (183.0 IP, 102 xFIP-, 1.9 WAR) faces Josh Collmenter (157.0 IP, 96 xFIP-, 1.6 WAR). This game serves as a reasonable pretense upon which to note that, despite having produced relatively average numbers over the course of the whole season, Giants right-hander Jake Peavy has actually recorded the 14th-best park-adjusted xFIP among qualified pitchers over the last month and also the 11th-best WAR among all pitchers over that same interval. It also serves as a pretense upon which to note that Ender Inciarte — of whom the author can only claim a passing knowledge — has batted leadoff in 42 consecutive games for Arizona, producing actually an above-average batting line and 10-for-11 stolen-base record over that same stretch.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: San Francisco Radio or Television.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Seattle at Los Angeles AL | 22:05 ET
Hisashi Iwakuma (165.0 IP, 75 xFIP-, 3.3 WAR) faces Matt Shoemaker (128.1 IP, 87 xFIP-, 1.9 WAR). While this game actually scores lower than San Francisco-Arizona on decimal points according to NERD, that proprietary and flawed metric fails to account for two non-negligible points, both of which concern the person of Matt Shoemaker. First is this: Shoemaker has unexpectedly emerged as probably the best starter on what is almost certainly the best team in the majors, rendering him, by some manner of transitive property, one of the best pitchers in all the leagues. And second is this: in Hisashi Iwakuma, Shoemaker faces one of three pitchers to whom he’s most comparable in the majors, all of whom (one notes) hail from a certain island nation in East Asia.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles AL Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Los Angeles NL at San Francisco | 16:05 ET
Clayton Kershaw (177.1 IP, 56 xFIP-, 6.3 WAR) faces Yusmeiro Petit (99.1 IP, 78 xFIP-, 1.4 WAR). It was either Socrates or one of Socrates’s Athenian friends who stated that one ought either “to ball hard, or not ball at all.” What the Giants did on Saturday against the visiting Dodgers was to apply that adage to losing — insofar, that is, as they lost really hard. San Francisco entered the game trailing their opponents by a single game and featuring about 24% odds of winning the division. As of this morning, that figure is closest to 15%. Still, not inconsequential, that.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Almost All of Them.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Oakland at Seattle | 21:10 ET
Sonny Gray (190.0 IP, 94 xFIP-, 2.7 WAR) faces Felix Hernandez (212.0 IP, 69 xFIP-, 5.7 WAR). After the latter club’s victory over the former last night in Seattle (box), here’s how much the Mariners’ odds of qualifying for a wild-card spot increased: from 42.5% to 55.3%. And here’s how much the Athletics’ decreased: from 91.2% to 88.9%. Finally — and not entirely relevantly — here’s which pitcher both Steamer and ZiPS project to finish just ahead of Felix Hernandez on the American League WAR leaderboard: father of the American Neo-Transcendentalist movement Corey Kluber.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Oakland Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Oakland at Seattle | 22:10 ET
Jason Hammel (162.1 IP, 98 xFIP-, 1.5 WAR) faces James Paxton (53.0 IP, 88 xFIP-, 0.9 WAR). No club besides Washington currently possesses a higher projected rest-of-season winning percentage than Oakland — a statement, that, which seems unlikely for a team that is 3-11 over its last four series, the latter two of which series featured solidly below-average opponents (the Astros and White Sox). Only the Angels, though, have produced a better platonic record according to BaseRuns, which metric removes the influence of chaining. Tonight they face one of their primary rivals for the second wild-card spot in the American League.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Oakland Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Oakland at Chicago AL | 14:10 ET
Scott Kazmir (165.2 IP, 73 xFIP-, 4.9 WAR) faces Chris Sale (155.0 IP, 73 xFIP-, 4.9 WAR). A month ago, it seemed nearly a foregone conclusion that the A’s would finish the season having not only won the AL West, but also having recorded the league’s highest win total by an impressive margin. Regard, by way of illustration, the following table, which features the top-five clubs by expected wins as of August 10th:

Now regard, as evidence of Oakland’s difficulties over the past month, this second table — which features the top-five clubs by expected wins as of this morning:

One notes that, over that same month-long interval during which Anaheim a record of 22-6, Oakland went only 9-19 in terms of wins and losses. As of this morning, no club features odds of reaching the divisional series (i.e. the real playoffs) closer to 50% than the A’s.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Oakland Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Kansas City at Detroit | 19:08 ET
James Shields (200.1 IP, 96 xFIP-, 3.1 WAR) faces Rick Porcello (183.0 IP, 96 xFIP-, 3.1 WAR). It’s the case for athletes, generally, that the extent of their celebrations correlates strongly with the height of the leverage of the encounter from which they’ve just emerged successfully — that the celebration is, in large part, an expression of relief. To what degree the following clip of Joe Nathan differs from those other times when he’s recorded a save, the author can’t say. That Nathan’s celebration occurs just after having weathered the highest leverage index for him (4.43) since August 9th — against a Kansas City club with whom Detroit is effectively tied in the standings — this is all an example of fact.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Detroit Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Kansas City at Detroit | 19:18 ET
Jason Vargas (169.0 IP, 105 xFIP-, 2.8 WAR) faces Max Scherzer (193.2 IP, 80 xFIP-, 5.0 WAR). Following Detroit’s win over Kansas City yesterday (box), the latter simultaneously trails the former by a game in the standings but now also leads by about three percentage points in the playoff odds. One notes that the aforementioned figures do not include the curiously suspended game between Cleveland and KC, which the latter is likely to lose. Pitching for the Tigers is Max Scherzer, whom some would argue is a candidate for the Cy Young award, while others would argue he’s not, while still others would prefer to stab themselves in the genitals than engage in that particular conversation.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Detroit Radio.

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