Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Toronto at Milwaukee | 20:10 ET
J.A. Happ (109.1 IP, 108 xFIP-, 0.9 WAR) faces Mike Fiers (21.0 IP, 74 xFIP-, 0.5 WAR). The latter recorded, in his most recent start, which was also his second major-league start of the season, he recorded 14 strikeouts against just 22 batters (box) — a percentage, that, which would amount to a passing grade in most American high schools and colleges. Unless the college were Hampshire, that is. In the case of Hampshire College, Fiers would have instead received a detailed narrative evaluation. In any case, Fiers et al. currently possess 49% odds of winning the Central and slightly-better-than-that odds of qualifying for the divisional series at all.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Milwaukee Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Atlanta at Pittsburgh | 19:05 ET
Ervin Santana (150.0 IP, 89 xFIP-, 2.7 WAR) faces Vance Worley (68.0 IP, 98 xFIP-, 0.7 WAR). The Atlantans and the Pittsburghers find themselves in nearly identical positions entering what the author would probably find is a three-game series had he the will to look up that sort of information. Regard: neither team has better than 10% odds of winning their respective division. And continue regarding: both clubs possess 20-25% odds of qualifying for the divisional series. Considerable, in other words, is how much importance this game has inside it.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Atlanta Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Milwaukee at Los Angeles NL | 16:10 ET
Wily Peralta (151.0 IP, 98 xFIP-, 0.9 WAR) faces Dan Haren (140.0 IP, 101 xFIP-, 0.1 WAR). Milwaukee’s defeat of Clayton Kershaw et al. on Saturday (box) — in concert with losses both by Pittsburgh and St. Louis — allowed the Brewers to improve their odds of winning the NL Central by nearly 10 percentage points, from 38% to 47%. This afternoon, Americans have the opportunity to hear either Bob Uecker or Vin Scully narrate the events of this next contest between the Brewers and Trolley Dodgers.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Milwaukee Radio or Los Angeles NL Television.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Seattle at Detroit | 19:08 ET
Felix Hernandez (180.1 IP, 62 xFIP-, 6.2 WAR) faces David Price (185.1 IP, 71 xFIP-, 4.0 WAR). The former is the prohibitive favorite for this year’s Cy Young award, while the latter likely would be a reasonable candidate for that same distinction were Felix Hernandez not to exist. Their clubs, meanwhile, feature 26% and 58% odds, respectively, of qualifying for the divisional series. A “cavalcade of dramas,” then, is what this contest seems to be producing.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Detroit Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Seattle at Detroit | 19:08 ET
James Paxton (22.2 IP, 62 xFIP-, 0.3 WAR) faces Rick Porcello (150.1 IP, 96 xFIP-, 2.6 WAR). While it’s unlikely that Kansas City will continue to win either 90% or 100% of their games, the victories they have recorded continue to render Detroit’s superior projected rest-of-season win percentage (.561 to .516) less and less relevant as fewer and fewer games remain to be played. The Tigers’ currently feature just 57.0% odds of winning the AL Central — the lowest figure for the club, that, since the beginning of the whole season, it would appear. They face the left-handed Paxton, who was excellent in two starts this April before missing four months with an injury and has been excellent in two starts since returning.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Detroit Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Pittsburgh at Detroit | 13:08 ET
Francisco Liriano (108.1 IP, 93 xFIP-, 0.9 WAR) faces Max Scherzer (161.0 IP, 81 xFIP-, 4.2 WAR). No team faces less certainty with regard to the postseason at the moment than Pittsburgh, which club currently possesses a 48% chance of qualifying for the divisional series according to the methodology used by FanGraphs — a figure, that, which necessarily indicates they have 52% chance of not qualifying for it, as well. The addition of sexy retroactive playoff odds, meanwhile, allows one to note that following their win and also the Royals’ win last night, that the Tigers’ playoff odds shifted from 70.9% yesterday to… well, actually still 70.9% today. Bad example, that. But takes nothing away from the innate sexual appeal of retroactive playoff odds.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Detroit Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Pittsburgh at Detroit | 19:08 ET
Vance Worley (62.2 IP, 99 xFIP-, 0.9 WAR) faces Buck Farmer (115.2 IP, 27.1% K, 6.0% BB at Class- and Double-A). As of last Tuesday, Detroit possessed 92% odds of qualifying for the ALDS. After a week populated almost exclusively by Kansas City victories, however, the Tigers’ chances have fallen about 30 percentage points, while the team itself has fallen (if only slightly) out of first place in the AL Central. These are the conditions, one notes, under which right-handed prospect Buck Farmer is expected to record what one might accurately call either (a) his major-league debut or also (b) his third-ever start above the Class-A Midwest League. A fifth-round pick last year out Georgia Tech, Farmer has produced excellent fielding-independent numbers against the competition he has faced — largely, it would seem, on the strength of a fastball-slider combination.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Detroit Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Detroit at Pittsburgh | 19:05 ET
Robbie Ray (15.1 IP, 124 xFIP-, 0.2 WAR) faces Edinson Volquez (133.2 IP, 116 xFIP-, 0.1 WAR). After their loss last night to Pittsburgh (box) — this, combined with Kansas City’s late-inning victory (their eighth consecutive) over Oakland (other box) — Detroit now occupies a rare space in the monde du baseball, in that they possess the third-best odds of winning the World Series according to the methodology utilized by this site while also occupying just second place in their own division. Indeed, the Tigers still possess a favorable projected rest-of-season winning percentage (.574) relative to the Royals (.500).

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Detroit Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Oakland at Kansas City | 20:10 ET
Sonny Gray (150.1 IP, 90 xFIP-, 2.6 WAR) faces Yordano Ventura (127.0 IP, 93 xFIP-, 1.8 WAR). As great American explorer Jeff Sullivan noted earlier this morning in these same pages, the Royals have now won seven games in a row and also 15 of 18. Regardless of what that does or doesn’t say about the club’s true talent, what it means is they now possess a better than 20% chance of winning the AL Central — and nearly a 30% chance overall of qualifying for the divisional series. Tonight perhaps their youngest, most talented starter faces Oakland’s probably youngest, most talented starter.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Oakland Radio?

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Los Angeles NL at Milwaukee | 14:10 ET
Clayton Kershaw (128.1 IP, 51 xFIP-, 4.8 WAR) faces Jimmy Nelson (30.0 IP, 106 xFIP-, 0.3 WAR). Despite the fact that not only St. Louis and Pittsburgh — but also even Cincinnati — are all expected to produce higher win percentages over the remaining quarter-plus of the season, Milwaukee now possesses the highest odds of all NL Central clubs of winning that same division. This is due in no small part to how the Brewers have banked wins, as it were, in each of their last three games. Banking a fourth consecutive one will prove more difficult, on account of how they face leauge’s best starter on a per-inning basis.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Milwaukee Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »