Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Los Angeles NL at Milwaukee | 19:10 ET
Zack Greinke (146.1 IP, 69 xFIP-, 2.9 WAR) faces Mike Fiers (7.0 IP, 139 xFIP-, 0.0 WAR). Following Milwaukee’s victory over the Dodgers last night (box), the club now possesses 45% odds of reaching the divisional series — closer to even than any other major-league team. Starting for the Brewers is Fiers, who has produced both excellent and less excellent major-league numbers in the past. His stats for Triple-A Nashville skew decidedly in the more excellent direction this year. To wit: 102.1 IP, 31.5% K, 4.2% BB.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Milwaukee Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
San Francisco at Kansas City | 20:10 ET
Madison Bumgarner (154.0 IP, 83 xFIP-, 2.7 WAR) faces Jason Vargas (129.1 IP, 106 xFIP-, 1.7 WAR). With Detroit’s 1-0 loss on Thursday (box), in conjunction with Kansas City’s 6-2 victory (box), that latter club now trails the former by only 2.5 games in the AL Central. The clubs’ proximity in the standings is perhaps exaggerated: the Tigers are projected to win 57% of their remaining games; the Royals, just 49%. Still, this represents one of Kansas City’s best opportunities to qualify for the postseason since Bret Saberhagen was a hairless youth.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Either San Francisco One.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
San Francisco at Milwaukee | 14:10 ET
Jake Peavy (137.0 IP, 111 xFIP-, 1.0 WAR) faces Wily Peralta (138.0 IP, 99 xFIP-, 0.7 WAR). This is the third game in a series that’s featured the two clubs currently playing the highest-leverage games in the league. San Francisco won last night, although only modestly — because the Dodgers also won — only modestly improved their odds of qualifying for the divisional series from 48.3% to 48.7%. The Milwaukees, meanwhile, despite occupying first place in the NL Central, currently possess a worse chance of reaching the divisional series than either the Cardinals or Pirates per the methodology employed by the present site.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Basically All of Them.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
San Francisco at Milwaukee | 20:10 ET
Ryan Vogelsong (127.2 IP, 104 xFIP-, 1.6 WAR) faces Yovani Gallardo (135.2 IP, 96 xFIP-, 1.2 WAR). Entering play yesterday, the Giants and Brewers featured the first and third least certain postseason futures, respectively. Following the latter club’s 4-3 victory yesterday (box), the situation has changed slightly — insofar, that is, as the Giants and Brewers now feature the first and second least certain postseason futures, respectively. San Francisco now possesses a 48.3% chance of qualifying for the divisional series; Milwaukee, a 39.3% chance — the two figures, those, closest to 50% among the league’s 30 teams.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Basically All of Them.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
San Francisco at Milwaukee | 20:10 ET
Tim Lincecum (128.1 IP, 98 xFIP-, 0.4 WAR) faces Jimmy Nelson (23.0 IP, 111 xFIP-, 0.2 WAR). No team’s postseason future is less clear at the moment than the Giants’, which club enters Tuesday with 51.9% odds of making the divisional series. Nor are the Brewers very different in this regard: despite a 1.0- and 1.5-game lead over St. Louis and Pittsburgh, respectively, in the NL Central, the Milwaukees currently feature just 37.4% odds of reaching the divisional series.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Basically All of Them.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

The Playoff-Odds Adjustment: A Tiresome Explanation
The amount of time and energy dedicated by the present author to the construction of a formula which reveals the aesthetic promise of a pitcher or team or game — it’s absurd, this, and unbecoming of a human man. The endeavor itself? A case study in myopia, assuredly. And yet, because he’s a person without sense, the author whittled away a few more hours from his finite time on earth this weekend by working to make the aforementioned formula(e) more complicated and obscure — in this case, by employing a suggestion provided by reader DavidKB from last week. The suggestion: to apply a playoff-odds adjustment to each day’s NERD game scores not just over the last month-plus of the season, but all season long. And second: to weight that playoff-odds adjustment on a scale relative to the number of games remaining until the end of the season.

What follows is a tiresome explanation of how the author has done that.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
San Francisco at New York NL | 13:10 ET*
Madison Bumgarner (145.0 IP, 83 xFIP-, 2.3 WAR) faces Bartolo Colon (141.2 IP, 100 xFIP-, 1.9 WAR). Because the author’s presence is required in southern Michigan even as he writes these words in the northern part of that same long state, he’s unable to provide an entirely detailed explanation for why today’s Giants and Mets contest is today’s most highly rated. In brief, however, what I’ve done is to employ a suggestion provided by reader DavidKB from last week — a suggestion to apply a playoff-odds adjustment all season long, but to weight that adjustment on a scale relative to the number of games remaining until the end of the season. So now teams which possess a chance of making the divisional series very close to 33% are likely to also possess a higher team NERD score.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Basically All of Them.

*It appears as though, after updating John Lackey’s team from Boston to St. Louis, that today’s most highly rated game is actually Milwaukee at St. Louis — largely owing to how the clubs possess 41.4% and 50.8% odds, respectively, of reaching the divisional series. All other notes are relevant, however.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Kansas City at Oakland | 16:05 ET
Jason Vargas (125.0 IP, 107 xFIP-, 1.4 WAR) faces Jon Lester (143.0 IP, 79 xFIP-, 4.5 WAR). While regarded both far and also wide as infallible, the NERD scores utilized here for the purposes of determining the day’s most compelling games do not, as a practice, account for the debut of a talented pitcher for the team to which he’s been recently been traded at the deadline. As such, Jon Lester’s debut for Oakland wouldn’t ordinarily be distinguished as today’s most highly rated game. Using the sort of Discretion, however, which has earned him the attention of many women and the envy of just as many men, the author has applied an adjustment to this game of +2 points — a sum which, coincidentally or not, earns it the day’s top score.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Oakland Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.astro

Most Highly Rated Game
Los Angeles AL at Tampa Bay | 19:10 ET
Matt Shoemaker (76.1 IP, 81 xFIP-, 0.9 WAR) faces Jeremy Hellickson (9.0 IP, 121 xFIP-, 0.2 WAR). In all of July, the former walked only three batters over 22.1 innings — this, while striking out 24. Nor was that performance particularly out of character for Shoemaker: among the 205 pitchers to have recorded 20-plus innings as a starter this year, Shoemaker has produced the 11th-best park-adjusted xFIP — just behind the recently traded David Price and just ahead of the also recently traded Jon Lester.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Tampa Bay Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Atlanta at Los Angeles NL | 22:10 ET
Julio Teheran (149.1 IP, 96 xFIP-, 2.4 WAR) faces Clayton Kershaw (112.1 IP, 51 xFIP-, 4.1 WAR). The latter continues to have recorded the best single-season park-adjusted xFIP among all qualifiers since 2002 — i.e. the first year for which that kind of metric is available. Here’s who’s second: the 2002 version of Curt Schilling (52 xFIP-). And here’s who’s third: the 2002 version of Randy Johnson (57 xFIP-).

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Radio.

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