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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.
1. Featured Game: St. Louis at Detroit, 19:05 ET (MLB.TV Free Game)
2. The College World Series: Still Happening
3. Today’s Complete MLB Schedule
Featured Game: St. Louis at Detroit, 19:05 ET
The Significance of This Game
This — so far as the author can tell — is the first game of the season to register a perfect NERD score of 10.
What Is NERD, For Those Who Don’t Know
NERD represents an attempt to measure the likely interest a player or team or game might have to the baseball nerd (which is probably you, by virtue of the fact that you’re reading this).
Links That Exist on the Internet
Click here for more information on Pitcher and Team NERD scores and here for how Game NERD Scores are calculated.
Look at all of these unemployed babies.
Boston (9) at Baltimore (2) | 19:05 ET
New York AL (10) at Tampa Bay (7) | 19:10 ET
Philadelphia (3) at Atlanta (5) | 19:10 ET
St. Louis (3) at Houston (4) | 20:05 ET
On Why There’re Four Games Here
Everyone, even tiny babies, knows why there are four games here: because each of these games includes a team tied, on the last day of the season, for the Wild Card in their respective league.
On How Such a Thing Happened
Everyone wrote to their senator and asked for it, probably.
On How Such a Thing Will End
Copious butt-slapping, win or lose.
NERD and Frankenstein’s monster have about 0.5 things in common.
New York AL (10) at Tampa Bay (8) | 19:10 ET
NERD v. Nerd
NERD — i.e. the numbers you see here designed to express in one figure the watchability of a team or player or game for the baseballing nerd — is totally trying to embarrass its creator today.
How It’s Doing That
By giving the Yankees-Rays and Red Sox-Orioles contests Game Scores of 9 and 7, respectively, while they (i.e. those games) very clearly feel like some of those most interesting games of the season.
Why That’s Happening, In Reality
The reason why that’s happening — the thing with the lower-than-expected scores — is because Boston’s playoff odds remain at about 63%. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay’s are only about 37%. (All per Cool Standings.)
An example of a famous Russian astronaut, or cosmonaut.
St. Louis (3) at Houston (4) | 20:05 ET
Brass Tacks
What with Atlanta’s loss on Sunday and St. Louis’s victory, the Cardinals now find themselves a single game behind the Braves in the NL Wild Card Race.
In Terms of Percentages
In terms of percentages, that gives the Cardinals a 36.6% chance of making the postseason; the Braves, 63.4% (per Cool Standings).
Meet Some Astros!
Here are some Astros: Brian Bogusevic (173 PA, 118 wRC+, 1.8 WAR), J.D. Martinez (219 PA, 106 wRC+, 1.6 WAR), Jimmy Paredes (172 PA, 93 wRC+, 0.6 WAR).
Meet Some Astronauts!
Here are some current astronauts: Serena M. Auñón, Jeanette J. Epps, Jack D. Fischer.
Some Other Terms for Astronaut
Here are some other terms for astronaut: cosmonaut (a Russian space traveler), taikonaut (a Chinese space traveler), sexynaut (an Italian space traveler).
MLB.TV Audio Feed: Astros Television.
The sort of scissors utilized by both starters in today’s featured game.
Los Angeles NL (5) at San Diego (6) | 16:05 ET
Playoffs Schmayoffs
There are a couple games today — the Boston-New York ones, the Cardinal one — that have playoff implications, but the present author is like, “Talk to the hand, you games.”
Why the Author Is Saying That
Because his knowledge of popular slang is current up to only about 15 years ago.
Why Else the Author Is Saying That
Because none of the underdogs at this point has better than a 16% chance of making the playoffs — and this game probably represents that last time we’ll see Clayton Kershaw this season.
Something You Probably Know About Clayton Kershaw
Here’s the season line for Clayton Kershaw, Cy Young Candidate: 226.0 IP, 27.3% K, 6.0% BB, 43.4% GB, 2.65 SIERA, 2.82 xFIP, 73 xFIP-.
Something You Mayn’t Know About Kershaw’s Opponent
Kershaw’s opponent, Cory Luebke, has been almost as brilliant as Kershaw on a per-batter basis: 133.2 IP, 28.1% K, 7.6% BB, 38.9% GB, 2.67 SIERA, 2.97 xFIP, 77 xFIP-.
MLB.TV Audio Feed: Dodgers Television.
A Red Sox fan asks the big questions.
Boston (9) at New York AL (10) | 16:10 ET
Regarding Something Bill James Said
Bill James has said — somewhere, at some point in time — something to the effect of “We’re frequently interested in things that other people find interesting.”
An Example of What James Means by That
Murder cases — like how people like murder cases.
On the Relevance of That Statement to This Game
Despite the fact that, as of this morning, the Red Sox have something like a 95% chance of making the playoffs, a great portion of New Englanders are wringing their hands anxiously regarding the Sox and their fate.
An Example of Said Handwringing
A Boston Globe photo slideshow entitled “Who’s to Blame?”
Another Example of That Handwringing
This video debate over whether the Sox are dirty and doggy enough.
MLB.TV Audio Feed: Red Sox Television.
The Pixies’ 1987 ode to the Allen Craig/Matt Holliday situation.
Chicago NL (4) at St. Louis (3) | 20:15 ET
Obligatory Playoff-Race Note
The Cardinals of St. Louis are currently 2.0 games behind the Braves of Atlanta with six games remaining, giving them (i.e. the Cards) about a 24% chance of making the playoffs, per Cool Standings.
Something You May Know
Something you may know is that, with Matt Holliday (hand) currently out, that Allen Craig has been playing regularly in his (i.e. Holliday’s) absence.
Something You May Not Know
Craig, who’s hitting .312/.359/.529 (.347 BABIP), 150 wRC+ in 207 plate apperances this season, actually has a better rest-of-season ZiPS projection than Holliday.
Something You May Not Know, Part II
Here are those lines, specifically.
Craig: .286/.333/.571 (.300 BABIP), .387 wOBA
Holliday: .300/.364/.500 (.333 BABIP), .376 wOBA
One Caveat Regarding Those Projections
One caveat (of the probably many extant caveats) regarding those projections is that Craig has been protected from righties a little bit. Only two-thirds of the pitchers he’s faced are righties; for an everyday player, that figure would probably be above 80%.
MLB.TV Audio Feed: Cubs Television.
Georg Cantor (a) discovered multiple infinities and (b) went insane.
Tampa Bay (7) at New York AL (10) | 19:05 ET
A Note Regarding Your Taste
If your taste, reader, is for the baseball game with the most immediate of playoff consequences, then tonight’s contest between New York NL and St. Louis (below) ought to be your preference.
Why That Is
Why that is, is because owing to yet another Cardinal victory and another Brave loss last night, the former sits only 1.5 games behind the latter for the NL Wild Card.
What That Means in Terms of Percentages
In terms of percentages — again, per Cool Standings — St. Louis now has just under a 35% chance of making the postseason; Atlanta, a 64% chance.
As for This Game
As for this game, it offers a team (i.e. the Rays) with less of a playoff chance (4.5%), but with the added draw of left-hander Matt Moore’s first major-league start.
Matt Moore’s Minor-League Line
Here’s Matt Moore’s line between Double- and Triple-A this season: 155.0 IP, ∞ K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9.
A Note a Matt Moore’s Line
Just looking at it now, it appears as though Matt Moore struck out infinity batters this season. Hadn’t realized that.
MLB.TV Audio Feed: Rays Television.
Almost certainly a metaphor.
New York NL (4) at St. Louis (3) | 20:15 ET
What the Deal Is
The deal with this game is that, after winning last night — but also letting the Braves win, too — that the Cardinals are 2.5 games back in the NL Wild Card race.
What That Means to Cool Standings
What that whole thing means to Cool Standings is that the Cardinals have about an 18% chance of making the playoffs.
The Cardinals’ Playoff Chances, A Brief History Of
Looking over the internet records, one finds that St. Louis’s odds of making the playoffs are the highest they’ve been since August 15th, when they (i.e. the playoff odds) were 20%.
The Cardinals’ Playoff Chances in Context
To get a sense of how good the Cardinals’ chances are, consider that the Rays’ — who everyone’s freaking about — consider that their chances of making the postseason are less than 9%.
Other Things People Are Freaking About
All of the things, all of the time.
MLB.TV Audio Feed: Mets Television.
Two Other Games
Tampa Bay (7) at New York AL (10) | 13:05 ET
In which AL East titans clash and, just as with the real Titans, are gruesomely slayed by the Olympic gods — i.e. Must-See TV.
MLB.TV Audio Feed: Rays Television.
Tampa Bay (7) at New York AL (10) | 19:05 ET
In which the second verse is the same as the first.
MLB.TV Audio Feed: Rays Television.
Also Playing
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.8.