This edition of One Night Only was originally penned in a considerably more beautiful and way more expressive foreign language.

(NERD scores in parentheses.)

Atlanta (5) at Philadelpia (4) | 7:05pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Braves: Mike Minor (10)
37.0 IP, 9.97 K/9, 2.19 BB/9, .381 BABIP, 36.1% GB, 9.3% HR/FB, 3.68 xFIP, 0.7 WAR

Phillies: Roy Halladay (10)
234.2 IP, 8.05 K/9, 1.07 BB/9, .306 BABIP, 51.5% GB, 11.6% HR/FB, 2.89 xFIP, 6.4 WAR

Notes
• Halladay has a strand rate of 82.7% — which, that’s higher than both his career rate (73.2%) and league average (around 70%). On the other hand, were Halladay’s strand rate over 100%, I’d still regard it as totally sustainable. Why? Because he’s Roy Frigging Halladay. He’s like the MacGyver of baseball pitchers.
• Mike Minor’s excellent NERD is based upon the fact that he’s both a tiny baby (only 22) and totally unlucky (5.84 ERA verus that 3.68 xFIP).
• Here are some postseason odds, via Cool Standings. Philly: 79.1% (Division), 20.6% (Wild Card), 99.7% (Playoffs). Atlanty: 20.9% (Division), 68.2% (Wild Card), 89.1% (Playoffs).

Forewards Progress
The Handsome and Prolific Jonah Keri announced yesterday via Twitter that Mark Cuban will be writing the foreward to Keri’s forthcoming tour-de-force The Extra 2% — an exciting prospect, I think we can all agree.

On the occasion of this news, I thought it might be a good time to announce some of my own forthcoming titles and their respective foreward-writers. The following texts will almost definitely be available at better bookstores everywhere.

Title: Rock, Chalk, Tarantula Hawk?
Description: A very scholarly and totally rigorous analysis of an alternate reality in which the University of Kansas chose a very different kind of mascot.
Foreward By: Actually, no specific author. Rather, it’s an excerpt from a game of Exquisite Corpse played by Dom DeLuise, Catherine Deneuve, and Kool Keith during one of the latter’s legendarily tasteful dinner parties. Suffice it to say, the text is frigging transcendent.

Title: On the High Importance of Codpieces
Description: Written in broken French, Codpieces is mostly just a collection of photographs I’ve taken of myself in various states of undress, in various bathroom mirrors.
Foreward By: Grady Sizemore, whose French is impeccable, actually

Title: Oh Baby, I Like It WAR
Description: A disgusting, expletive-laden meditation on the history of sabermetrics.
Foreward By: Ol’ Dirty Bastard (posthumously)

Other Notes
Texas (7) at Los Angeles Americans (1), 10:05pm ET
• Let Colby Lewis (7) into your life, America.
• Peter Bourjos Watch: 136 PA, .195/.231/.375 (.223 BABIP), .268 wOBA, 64 wRC+.
• Another thing about Peter Bourjos: he’s currently sporting a 7.8 UZR through 327.2 innings afield. Small sample? Yes. Still totally plausible? Also, yes.

Colorado (6) at Arizona (8), 9:40pm ET
• Troy Tulowitzki is becoming a legit MVP-candidate, says my boss. Diamondback starter Joe Saunders is a good person against whom to continue that candidacy.

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Note: As reader Tim points out, Jair Jurrjens has been scratched tonight and will be replaced by MLB debutant Brandon Beachy, who’s done this through 45.2 Triple-A IP this season: 9.46 K/9, 1.18 BB/9, 0.39 HR/9, 2.19 FIP. A couple months ago, gondee over at Talking Chop asked the question, “Is this guys for reals?” You can read his answer here.

This edition of One Night Only will give you neither answers nor the truth.

(NERD scores in parentheses.)

Cincinnati (7) at Milwaukee (9) | 8:10pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Reds: Homer Bailey (7)
91.0 IP, 7.62 K/9, 3.26 BB/9, .316 BABIP, 40.7% GB, 8.5% HR/FB, 4.18 xFIP, 1.6 WAR

Brewers: Chris Capuano (4)
50.1 IP, 7.51 K/9, 2.86 BB/9, .286 BABIP, 42.3% GB, 11.9% HR/FB, 4.04 xFIP, 0.3 WAR

Notes
• A reader — somewhere, sometime, writing from one of these towns that people are always living in — asked about the Brewers’ NERD and why it was so high. That’s a good question. Here are the reasons. For one, they’re actually the fourth-best team in the majors per park-adjusted weighted runs above average (wRAA), with +63.9. That mark places them first among National League teams. So that’s one thing. Another is this: the Brewers are third-best, behind Toronto and Boston, in park-adjusted HR/FB. So, that’s the second thing: they hit homers. Finally, the Brewers have been unlucky offensively. Before play on Sunday, they’d scored only 676 runs, but had recorded 702 Base Runs. NERD gives up to a 2.00-point bonus for (bad) luck (using the formula (Runs – Base Runs)/-10), and the Brewers are beneficiaries of said bonus right now. Without it, they’d still have a NERD score of 7, but wouldn’t be reaching their current lofty heights.
• Some people in this world have gone their whole lives without once seeing Juan Francisco take an at-bat. Luckily, you can do that tonight, as the free-swinging Dominican will almost definitely make at least a pinch-hit appearance this evening. In 320 PAs at Triple-A Louisville this season, Francisco slashed .286/.325/.565 with a .332 BABIP. StatCorner has him with a 114 wOBA+, which means that Francisco was above-average in the International League.
• Hey, observe what Homer Bailey’s done since his return from the DL in mid-August: 40.1 IP, 36 K, 12 BB, 2 HR. That’s a FIP of like 2.95 or so.

Other Notes
Tampa Bay (10) at New York Americans (7), 7:05pm ET
• This game is effectively meaningless, as, per Cool Standings, each team has better than a 99% chance of making the playoffs. Still, Ivan Nova’s starting for the Yankees. His NERD (6) has dropped in recent starts, but he still features a changepiece that many of our West Coast brothers and sisters wouldn’t hesitate to call “gnar-gnar.”

Texas (7) at Los Angeles Americans (1), 8:10pm ET
• I don’t know a ton about pitching mechanics — and, specifically, the sort of terminology one might employ to appear knowledgeable about such a thing — but I know that Jered Weaver seems to have a particularly efficient-looking wind-up. Specifically, he seems adept at contorting his mid-section in such a way — by sort of turning his torso plate-ward and “leading” with his chest — as to give his arm quite a bit of “whip.” Anyway, he’s had an excellent season (204.0 IP, 3.50 xFIP) despite possessing a fastball that’s just barely averaged 90 mph. Moreover, his curve (+2.23 per 100 thrown) and change (+1.66) are both excellent by our pitch-type linear weights.

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Actually, Loverboy, not everybody’s working for the weekend — or working at all, in fact.

(NERD scores in parentheses.)

San Diego (10) at St. Louis (3) | 8:15pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Padres: Mat Latos (10)
166.2 IP, 9.40 K/9, 2.43 BB/9, .262 BABIP, 44.7% GB, 8.6% HR/FB, 3.28 xFIP, 3.6 WAR

Cardinals: Kyle Lohse (3)
71.0 IP, 5.07 K/9, 3.17 BB/9. .375 BABIP, 42.4% GB, 5.9% HR/FB, 5.07 xFIP, 0.7 WAR

Notes
• I don’t particularly care about Kyle Lohse one way or the other. I’m sure he’s not someone whose starts — all things being equal — whose starts I’d actively seek out. But the way he’s rendered fictionally by Dan Moore of Viva El Birdos actually makes him considerably more interesting in reality. (There must be a cultural critic who’s written on this phenomenon, no? Jean Baudrillard much? Umberto Eco? Someone?)
• Also notable is that tonight’s game represents a battle between two saints: Didacus of Alcalá (ca 1400 – 1463) and Louis IX of France (1214 – 1270). A brief look at their respective Wikipedia pages reveals that Didacus is, conclusively, a way better saint.
• Mat Latos at 3.6 WAR seems low. You can look at the pitching WAR leaders for yourself, but here are some names I wouldn’t have expected, anecdotally, to see ahead of him: Anibal Sanchez (3.9 WAR, 172.0 IP), Jason Hammel (3.9, 165.2), Gavin Floyd (4.3, 187.1). Those guys are good — I’m not debating that. I’m just saying I wouldn’t have expected them to be there. Really, it’s probably almost entirely due to run environment. The run environment is so deflated at San Diego that you have to really bring it in order to scale the WAR charts.

If I Had My Druthers
• Matt Stairs or Chase Headley or someone would experience ecstasy before the cross.

Other Notes
Cleveland (3) at Kansas City (1), 8:10pm ET
• Carlos Carrasco is (a) pitching tonight and (b) doing this through 20.2 IP: 6.10 K/9, 2.61 BB/9, 66.7% GB, 3.67 xFIP.

Detroit (4) at Chicago Americans (5), 8:10pm ET
• This game features Max Scherzer (8) versus Edwin Jackson (8), who either were or weren’t traded for each other this past offseason. In any case, I know for a fact that they’ve both been Diamondbacks recently. And Tigers. And men among men.

Gridiron Football
• I, Carson Cistulli, have also written about two of this weekend’s gridiron match-ups over at Advanced NFL Stats.

Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.

*Note: As reader Dave has pointed out, Roy Oswalt is listed as an Astro still. That could be a mistake, sure. But then again, it could be a sign that HE’S STILL AN ASTRO AT HEART.

But it’s probably just a mistake.

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Today’s edition of One Night Only is being read aloud in the voice of Larry King.

(Games listed in order of likely awesomeness. NERD scores in parentheses.)

Featured Games
San Diego (10) at Colorado (7) | 3:10pm ET
• Your starting pitchers are Clayton Richard (5) and Jorge de la Rosa (8). In his three years with the Rockies, de la Rosa has sported ERA/xFIP differences of .86, .62, and .58, respectively. My guess is that, on account of Coors Field rates as both homer-friendly (112 four-year, HR/FB factor) and hit-friendly (119 four-year, BABIP factor), that this is probably the case for a bunch of Rocky pitchers. Accordingly, it’ll help those same Rockies with respect to their NERD scores. I think this makes sense: part of NERD’s purpose — as is the case with advanced metrics, in general — is to remove a player from his context. Where Joe Briefcase looks at de la Rosa’s 2008 and sees a 4.92 ERA, Nerdy McNerderson sees a 4.06 xFIP*.
• At the team level, all the Colorado Rockies want to do is make people go to bed late. You can take that to the bank!
• You should take note of Answer Man David Brown’s interview with Platonic Man Matt Stairs. There are a number of great lines, but the good people of Bristol, Connecticut, and the proud alumni of Wheaton College are probably most excited about this exchange:

David Brown: If the Padres make the playoffs, is Chris Denorfia a lock for the Italian American Sports Hall of Fame?
Matt Stairs: When we do, yes. First ballot.

Though I don’t have a ballot — yet! — I’d probably cast one for Denorfia, who’s currently posting a 118 wRC+.

*As you probably already know, Nerdy McNerderson is of Irish descent. At least on his father’s side, he is.

New York Americans (7) at Tampa Bay (10) | 7:10pm ET
• Your starting pitchers are Phil Hughes (7) and James Shields (8). Here’s something about James Shields: he has a 4.98 ERA and 4.31 FIP and 3.70 xFIP this season. His lifetime figures by those same metrics are 4.19 and 4.04 and 3.85, respectively. Curiously — I didn’t know this, at all — Tropicana field actually has a HR/FB park factor of 111. That probably goes some way towards explaining Shields’ career rate of 11.8% HR/FB.
• At the team level, a thing of interest is Tampa coach Joe Maddon’s bullpen usage. Rafael Soriano, his best relief pitcher, has the highest average Leverage Index when entering a game (gmLI), at 2.01 — which is to say, Soriano is pitching the majority of his innings in the most important situations. Jason Collette of The Process Report can tell you more about Maddon, Joe Girardi, and Relief Aces.
• You should take note of how James Shields’ “pitches backwards” — i.e. uses his fastball to set up his offspeed stuff (particularly his sweet changepiece). You should also use the term “pitching backwards” in front of your friends, the ladies, whomever, in an effort to impress them.

Toronto (7) at Baltimore (2) | 7:05pm ET
• Your starting pitchers are Kyle Drabek (20*) and Brad Bergesen (3). Question: Does Kyle Drabek really merit a NERD score of 20? Follow-Up Question: Is it even possible to score a 20 on something that’s purposely scaled 0-10? Answer: No, not probably. Follow-up Answer: Sure, if Carson Cistulli says so. Here’s the deal, really: Kyle Drabek is a prospect making his major league debut. I’ve experimented with a couple ways of representing this in the NERD scores. This is another of those experiments. Maybe a debut is worth 20, a second start is worth 15, a third start 10?
• At the team level, Baltimore appears to be having a disastrous season defensively, posting a collective -35.6 UZR that places them fourth from bottom in the majors. Some of that is Miguel Tejada and Garrett Atkins, who are now departed. Some of that is also Adam Jones, who’s athletic and probably a nice guy, but is also probably not a center fielder.
• You should take note of how Brad Bergesen is Sergio Mitre. Bergesen this year: 143.0 IP, 4.41 K/9, 2.77 BB/9, 49.0% GB, 4.91 xFIP. Mitre: 49.1 IP, 4.56 K/9, 2.92 BB/9, 51.0% GB, 4.53 xFIP. Yesyesyes, most of Mitre’s innings have come as a reliever, but he’s also posting K/BB numbers pretty similar to his career levels. The real consideration is this: Is being Sergio Mitre a bad thing? Answer: No, probably not. Were he able to stay healthy, Mitre would be a perfectly serviceable starter. Bergesen, only 25, appears to be on that same career path. His upside is almost nil, but if you put a an above-average infield defense behind him, it’s possible that his ERA creeps below 4.00 for a couple seasons.

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Like with Transformers, there’s more than meets the eye in this edition of One Night Only.

Also like Transformers, this edition of One Night Only will someday be made into a giant Hollywood film starring Megan Fox.

(Games listed in order of likely awesomeness. NERD scores in parentheses.)

Featured Games
New York Americans (7) at Tampa Bay (10), 7:10pm ET
• Your starting pitchers are Ivan Nova (7) and Matt Garza (5). Nova has impressed in limited time this season, posting a line that looks precisely like this: 24.2 IP, 6.20 K/9, 2.19 BB/9, 49.4% GB, 3.89 xFIP. Though his curve is getting all the love from our pitch-type linear weights (+1.43 per 100 thrown), it’s his change that makes for the most compelling viewing. He throws it around 87 mph, and it just disappears. I mean it: this guy’s like frigging Gob Bluth over here.
• At the team level, it’s a fact: these teams are at the top of the AL East standings. After last night’s victory, Tampa Bay now has a 0.5-game lead.
• You should take note of Joe Girardi’s bullpen management. Last night, in the bottom of the 11th inning, in a tie game, he bypassed Living Legend Mariano Rivera in favor of Merely Decent Sergio Mitre. The first batter of that inning, Fresh Faced Reid Brignac, hit a 3-2 change for a home run.

San Diego (10) at Colorado (6), 8:40pm ET
• Your starting pitchers are Jon Garland (3) and Jason Hammel (7). Allow me to admit this: I didn’t know the difference between Hammel and former Rays’ teammate Jeff Niemann until maybe late June or early July of this year — i.e. when his (i.e. Hammel’s) name became a fixture atop the NERD leaderboards. In reality, he’s doing the same thing this year as last. Seriously. Here’s 2009: 176.2 IP, 6.78 K/9, 2.14 BB/9, 46.2% GB, 3.81 xFIP. Now here’s this year: 161.2 IP, 7.35 K/9, 2.39 BB/9, 46.3% GB, 3.75 xFIP. I mean it: this guy’s a frigging metronome over here.
• At the team level, we have here two clubs that are trying to assassinate each other.
• You should take note of Colorado’s leadoff spot, on account of it’s been occupied by Eric Young since mid-August. There’s no guarantee he has even a league-average bat (90 wRC+ currently) or that his speed will translate into runs (16-for-21 on SB attempts, maybe slightly better than breakeven), but there’s something terribly exciting about a rookie leading off for a team that has recently — and dramatically — clawed its way back into playoff contention.

Philadelphia (4) at Florida (7), 7:10pm ET
• Your starting pitchers are Cole Hamels (9) and Adalberto Mendez (N/A). Who’s Mendez? That’s the exact question I asked Michael Jong of Marlin Maniac. He said, and I quote:

Adalberto Mendez is a career minor leaguer saddled with the great burden of having a cool first name. If not cool, certainly long. He has bounced around a couple organizations due to the fact that he cannot control his pitches, with a career minor league walk rate of 10.3%. He only recently reached the Triple-A level with some semblance of permanence, and only this season has he pitched fairly well. He has fairly mundane stuff (fastball/slider mostly, as he has worked primarily out of the bullpen) and has a flyball-heavy batted ball profile. In other words, if the Marlins weren’t down their top two starters, he probably wouldn’t be making his second major league start.

Here’s Mendez’ line at Triple-A New Orleans: 71.2 IP, 9.17 K/9, 3.64 BB/9, 3.77 FIP. Also, as Jong notes, the righty’s approach is flyball heavy: Mendez has routinely posted minor league groundball rates in the mid-30% region.
• At the team level — well, I don’t know if you’d call it the team level or what, but it’s a fact, nonetheless: Marlin coach Edwin Rodriguez has batted Emilio Bonifacio leadoff for about the last week or so. One the one hand, yes, Bonifacio is currently doing this: .320/.360/.416, .357 wOBA, 124 wRC+. On the other hand, he’s currently sporting a .385 BABIP. And also, he did this exact thing last year — i.e. get lucky on balls in play — before seriously regressing and ending up with a 66 wRC+ and -0.8 WAR in 509 PAs.
• You should (continue to) take note of the Marlin outfield, which features in Mike Stanton a 20-year-old who’s currently third in the NL in ISO (among anyone with more than 300 PAs).

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This Monday edition of One Night Only bears a resemblance to last Tuesday’s.

It’s either due (a) to a tear in the fabric of the space/time continuum or (b) to the five-man rotation.

You decide, America!

(Games listed in order of likely awesomness. NERD scores in parentheses.)

Pittsburgh (6) at New York Nationals (3) | 7:10pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Pirates: James McDonald (8)
41.0 IP, 8.78 K/9, 3.51 BB/9, .340 BABIP, 34.8% GB, 2.1% HR/FB, 3.92 xFIP (w/ PIT)

Mets: Dillon Gee (10*)
161.1 IP, 9.20 K/9, 2.29 BB/9, 4.01 FIP (Triple-A)

A Brief Apology
On the one hand, it makes some sense for the baseballing enthusiast to turn his attention towards the various playoff races currently unfolding. The NL West, for example, features three teams all within 1.5 games of each other. I don’t think it’s necessary to elaborate upon the appeal of that.

On the other hand, for the teams who’re very clearly not in the hunt for a red — or any other colored — October, the end is nigh. These last three or so weeks of the regular season represent our last chance to see the players who’ll compose the majority of next year’s rosters.

For some teams (like the Mariners, for example, or Astros), there’s no real urgency, on account of how they (a) haven’t been particularly active with their September call-ups, nor do they (b) feature much youth in the first place. (Although Brett Wallace is of some interest, I assume.) For others, though, like the Pirates, there are a number of players who are still very likely improving before our eyes.

Gee Thang
Dillon Gee was featured in last Tuesday’s edition of One Night Only. He was making his major league debut then, and it turned out pretty good: 7.0 IP, 26 TBF, 4 K, 3 BB, 10 GB on 18 BIP. Also, he got through those 7.0 IP in just 86 pitches.

One of the questions we considered then was what Gee’s strikeout rate might look like in the majors. As you can see above, he struck out over a batter per inning at Triple-A Buffalo. But he’s also never distinguished himself with great stuff.

What did a start teach us?

For one, Gee throws four pitches: a 90-91 mph fastball; a change; a standard-issue slider; and a kinda loopy, 73-75 mph curve. Per Texas Leaguers, he actually managed to get whiffs on four of 12 sliders and two of 12 curves. Those are both good figures, if in a limited sample. Also, quite frankly, it’s a little suprising.

To these barely qualified eyes, it was actually Gee’s fastball that appeared most effective — not as a swing-and-miss pitch, at all, but as a pitch with some movement to throw for strikes. Also, anecdotally speaking, Gee appears pretty good at keeping it down. Overall, he got 10 GB on 18 BIP.

Lucas Duda Watch
Through 32 PA: .036/.156/.071 (.056 BABIP), .127 wOBA, -29 wRC+.

Carlos Beltran
In September (33 PA): .325/.394/.571 (.320 BABIP), .423 wOBA, 169 wRC+.

Washington (6) at Atlanta (5) | 7:10pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Nationals: Yunesky Maya (10*)
MLB Debut (9/7): 5.0 IP, 21 TBF, 3 K, 2 BB, 4 GB on 16 BIP.

Braves: Derek Lowe (5)
169.0 IP, 5.80 K/9, 3.09 BB/9, .310 BABIP, 57.7% GB, 13.7% HR/FB, 3.91 xFIP

I Wish I Maya
Maya is the 29-year-old Cuban defector who made his major league debut opposite Dillon Gee last Tuesday. He was less effective than Gee on that particular occasion, allowing 4 R (to Gee’s 1 R) and taking the loss.

However that start might’ve turned out, though, Maya is the more aesthetically pleasing of the two. His fastball’s nothing to write home about. (Although, to be fair, I don’t know that I’ve ever actually sat down to write a letter about the finer points of any major leaguer’s fastball. Conclusion: “writing home about” it may not be a great litmus test in this instance.)

In any case, it’s Maya’s secondary offerings for which the enthusiast should watch. Maya throws a curveball that both (a) leaves his hand at about 20 fewer mph than his fastball and (b) is well-disguised.

The slider is notable, too. It’s not a Daniel Bard-type thing where he (i.e. Maya) simply overpowers the batter with it. Rather, it appears to be the definition of late-breaking, appearing to be pushed slant-ways to the catcher’s right. If I’m remembering correctly, he threw a couple nice ones up under the hands of lefty batters.

Danny Espinosa Watch
Through 31 PA: .310/.355/.724 (.286 BABIP), .453 wOBA, 187 wRC+. He was OPS-ing about 1.900 a couple days ago, so these are his numbers while in a slump.

San Diego (10) at Colorado (6) | 8:40pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Padres: Cory Luebke (9*)
57.2 IP, 6.87 K/9, 2.65 BB/9, 3.91 FIP (Triple-A)

Rockies: Jeff Francis (6)
92.2 IP, 5.73 K/9, 1.94 BB/9, .310 BABIP, 46.6% GB, 7.3% HR/FB, 3.95 xFIP

Playoff Note
On August 22nd, Colorado was 11 games out of first.

On August 27th, they were still 10 games out of first.

Entering play tonight, the Rockies are only 1.5 games out of first.

A Brief Note
At 3:10pm ET, in Kansas City, 30-year-old Bobby Cramer will make his major league debut for the A’s.

Here’s his line for Triple-A Sacramento this year: 41.2 IP, 7.56 K/9, 2.38 BB/9, 2.31 FIP. Per StatCorner, Cramer’s posted groundball rates in the low-50% area.

Go, Bobby Cramer.

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This edition of One Night Only has gotch yer back.

(NERD scores in parentheses.)

Friday, September 10th
Philadelphia (4) at New York Nationals (3), 7:10pm ET
• Your starting pitchers are Roy Halladay (10) and Jenrry Mejia (N/A). The former you’ll know on account of he toys with opposing batters’ emotions. The latter is a prospect (ranked #3 on Hulet’s preseason top-10 list) who’s been handled curiously this year by the Mets. In 32.2 major league innings, his K and BB numbers are leaving a lot to be desired (5.23 K/9, 4.68 BB/9), but he’s sporting a 63.2% groundball rate.
• At the team level, the Phils are third in the whole majors in stolen base runs by linear weights, with +9.02 runs*. They’re 86-for-103 on the season, with Shane Victorino (31-for-34) and Jimmy Rollins (17-for-18) leading the way.
• You should take note of Lucas Duda — not so much because his surname sounds like a hilarious euphemism (although that can’t be ignored) but also because he’s only 24 and slashed .314/.389/.610 in 298 Triple-A PAs. StatCorner has him with a minor league 124 wOBA+, suggesting it’s not some sort of park-related bidness.

*Exactly 1000 caveats apply to this statement. The Phils are super efficient, is the point.

Saturday, September 11th
Tampa Bay (10) at Toronto (8), 1:07pm
• Note, first, that this game isn’t on FOX, which means you can watch it.
• Note, second, that this game is being played in Canada, which means you might escape maudlin and overwrought tributes to the events of September 11th, 2001. Was that particular day absolutely horrible and terrifying? Yes. Is it pleasant to hear Joe Buck wax pious about it? Absolutely not.
• Your starting pitchers are Wade Davis (3) and Ricky Romero (7). Question: Has anyone ever seen Romero and Jaime Garcia in the same room? Romero’s line this year: 7.46 K/9, 3.42 BB/9, 54.6% GB, 3.74 xFIP. Garcia: 7.32 K/9, 3.60 BB/9, 55.9% GB, 3.75 xFIP. Garcia’s younger; Romero’s facing DHs and the AL East.
• At the team level, what the Blue Jays offer you is power — not just with a capital-P, but with a capital everything else, too. Their park-adjusted HR/FB rate is 12.8% — i.e. two standard deviations above the current mean of 9.4%*. Also, their park has a HR/FB factor of 108. Which, all that together means Home Run City.
• You should take note of Rocco Baldelli, who is (a) likely to be DH-ing for the Rays in this one and (b) the Joe DiMaggio of Rocco Baldellis. (Think about it.)

*This seems lowish as a league-wide figure. But also: I frequently have no idea what I’m doing. So there’s that, too.

Sunday, September 12th
San Francisco (4) at San Diego (10), 4:05pm ET
• Your starting pitchers are Tim Lincecum (9) and Mat Latos (10). OMG. OMG. OMG. OMG. OMG.
• At the team level, these two clubs are like two men jousting, and the winner gets to marry the princess, but the princess only loves one of them, but the king likes the other one better. All of which is to say, the Giants and Padres, as of today, are only a game apart in the standings.
• You should take note of the variety of strikeouts in this game. I’m going with an over/under of, say, 19 total. No jokesies.

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This edition of One Night Only swears that it was only trying to help.

(NERD scores in parentheses.)

Texas (7) at Toronto (8) | 7:07pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Rangers: Colby Lewis (6)
170.2 IP, 8.70 K/9, 2.90 BB.9, .299 BABIP, 37.6% GB, 8.7% HR/FB, 3.99 xFIP

Blue Jays: Shawn Hill (N/A)
21.0 IP, 3.86 K/9, 2.14 BB/9, .218 BABIP, 4.30 FIP (Triple-A)

A Bad Thing
Even though there’s a show by that name, I don’t know for a fact that everybody loves Raymond. In fact, I seem to recall people — friends, acquaintances, I don’t know — saying explicity about how they don’t love Ray Romano and/or his comedy stylings.

That’s fine. I mean, I’m no Ray Romano apologist. He was pretty funny on Dr. Katz. But if there are people out there not loving Ray Romano — well, I guess I’m willing to accept that.

A much more sensible show — or so I would have thought — would be one called Everybody Loves Colby Lewis. Because, look, the guy was a prospect, and then he wasn’t one, and then he pitched awesome in Japan, and then he started pitching awesome in America. The only reasonable reaction to that whole scenario is, “I love it.”

But a couple starts ago — literally, the first start all year in which he’d conceded more than five runs — Texas fans started not-loving Lewis in an audible way as he was lifted in the sixth inning of an 8-2 loss versus Oakland. These people booed Colby Lewis, is what I’m trying to say.

Lewis wasn’t so happy about it, as he noted via ESPN:

“I thought we had better fans than that,’’ Lewis said. “I mean, it’s the first time I’ve given up more than five runs. I walk a guy, and now they boo me?

“It was disappointing,’’ he said.

Let’s assume for a second that you care what I think about this. This is what I’d say if that were the case:

I can’t even make clear the degree to which I’m in the pro-Lewis camp on this issue. With the exception of C.J. Wilson (3.60 FIP, 3.8 WAR), Lewis has been the team’s most valuable pitcher (3.69, 3.5). Also, he’s only making $1.75 million this year — i.e. less than Scott Feldman and Darren Oliver and Frank Francisco and some of the team’s more recent acquisitions, too. Also, his skin emanates a beautiful golden light to which certain young-ish sportswriters are drawn like moths.

Another Bad Thing
Listen, America, I don’t mean to turn your frown into an even harder frown, but another bad thing happened to Colby Lewis. In his most recent start — this time at Minnesota — he gave up 9 R (all earned) in just 3.2 IP. And he had only 2 K in 22 TBF. And he also had 2 BB.

On the slightly brighter side, it’s possible that he was unluckly. Like, he gave up 6 H on 15 BIP. And he also conceded 2 HR on only 7 FB.

The Bottom Line
Ask not what your Colby Lewis can do for you; ask what you can do for your Colby Lewis.

Additionally
Shawn Hill is pitching today. If the name sounds familiar, it’s because he had a nice (if brief) 2007, during which he posted this line for the Nationals: 97.1 IP, 6.01 K/9, 2.31 BB/9, 54.7% GB, 4.02 xFIP. His career since then is best described as a “cavalcade of injuries.”

Said cavalcade ended in Tommy John surgery a little over a year ago. Hill was then signed to a minor league deal by Toronto in January. He’s made 10 or so minor league starts and now, tonight, just miles from his hometown of Mississauga, makes his triumphant return to major league baseball.

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Turn on your heart light, baseball fans.

(Games listed in order of likely awesomness. NERD scores in parentheses.)

Florida (7) at Philadelphia (3) | 7:05pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Marlins: Andrew Miller (N/A)
15.0 IP, 6.60 K/9, 6.00 BB/9, .324 BABIP, 46.7% GB, 6.3% HR/FB, 5.09 xFIP

Phillies: Cole Hamels (9)
181.0 IP, 9.10 K/9, 2.64 BB/9, .295 BABIP, 44.4% GB, 13.0% HR/FB, 3.45 xFIP

Philly and the Postseason
According to both Baseball Prospectus and Cool Standings, the Phillies have about a 73% chance of making the playoffs. I’m not sure that either methodology accounts for the fact that Wilson Valdez has 288 PA this season while posting a .274 wOBA (65 wRC+) — many of those PA coming as a replacement for the talented and handsome Chase Utley.

In other words, it’s probably better than 73%.

Philly and the Postseason (Starting Pitcher Remix)
You’ve probably already known this since you were born or something, but it’s still a fact: the Phillies have three excellent starting pitchers. Behold:

Pitcher		xFIP
Halladay	2.93
Hamels		3.46
Oswalt		3.56

After last year’s ALDS, in which the Yankees beat the Angels, Dave Cameron noted how 48 of the 59 innings pitched by New York (81.4%) during the series were thrown by only four New Yorkers: CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, and Mariano Rivera. New York used a similar technique to dispatch of Philly in the World Series.

It’s likely that, by this one measure alone, Philadelphia would actually have an even bigger advantage this postseason, were they to leverage their pitching the way New York did last year.

It wouldn’t be right to say that Brad Lidge, despite his totally competent 3.64 xFIP, is the same sort of weapon as Mariano Rivera. However, here are the other three relevant pitchers.

Pitcher		xFIP
Sabathia	3.82
Burnett		4.29
Pettitte	4.38

League-average ERA — to which xFIP is calibrated — is 4.12 this year. Last year, it 4.32. That’s a kinda big leap, but it also doesn’t make up for the difference in the two staffs above.

Youth of Florida
One of the main components behind Florida’s elevated NERD score is the youth of their team, in which category (i.e. youth — and, specifically, batter age) they rank third, behind only Pittsburgh (26.7) and Arizona (26.8).

In particular, it’s the Marlins’ outfield that’s notable in this regard, as left fielder Logan Morrison (23), center fielder Cameron Maybin (23), and Mike Stanton (20) are all almost young enough to write for FanGraphs.

St. Louis (3) at Milwaukee (9) | 8:10pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Cardinals: Jaime Garcia (7)
153.1 IP, 7.28 K/9, 3.58 BB/9, .295 BABIP, 55.3% GB, 6.9% HR/FB, 3.75 xFIP

Brewers: Chris Capuano (N/A)
37.0 IP, 9.00 K/9, 3.16 BB/9, .329 BABIP, 44.8% GB, 12.8% HR/FB, 3.68 xFIP

Capuano as a Starter
I submit that Chris Capuano is reason enough to watch this game.

Since he (i.e. Capuano) replaced Manny Parra in the rotation at the end of August, he’s made two starts, with a line that looks exactly like this:

8.0 IP, 38 TBF, 9 K, 5 BB, 10 H on 22 BIP, 12 GB on 24 Batted Balls, 2 HR on 9 FB.

First off, I don’t know if I’ve made it clear in this electronic pages, so I’ll say it vigorously right this minute: I’m the head of the Manny Parra Fan Club. I arrange all the functions, prepare all the mailings, send kinda creepy emails to Parra — all that.

But second off, it’s hard not to find Capuano compelling at the moment. Not only is he coming back from those consecutive Tommy Johns, but it also might surprise the reader to learn that Capuano has actually conceded 7 R (and 7 ER) in those 8.0 IP.

In other words, while pitching in what appears to be a generally effective way, Capuano has been dreadfully unlucky in terms of results.

Jon Jay’s Luck
About a month ago, St. Louis’s Jon Jay was batting .382/.433/.583. When that was happening, you probably did what I did:

1. Got really excited.
2. Got immediately suspicious.
3. Checked Jay’s BABIP.
4. Were like, “Ah, man.”

The BABIP you found at Jay’s elegantly designed player page was probably something like .430 or whatever. Unsustainable, whatever it was.

A month or so later, Jay’s doing this now: .323/.378/.472 (.368 BABIP), .367 wOBA, 132 wRC+. In other words, an excellent (if not crazy) line, but with something like a reasonable BABIP. Ultimately, his ball-in-play luck will continue to regress, but given his decent speed, it’s not crazy to think it could sit at something like .320, or even slightly higher.

Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.

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Tonight’s edition of One Night Only is a little bit really caliente.

(Games listed in order of likely awesomness. NERD scores in parentheses.)

New York Nationals (3) at Washington (6) | 7:05pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Mets: Dillon Gee (N/A)
157.1 IP, 9.21 K/9, 2.29 B/9, .339 BABIP, 3.96 FIP (Triple-A)

Nationals: Yunesky Maya (N/A)
Only Triple-A Start (8/27): 4.2 IP, 20 TBF, 6 K, 3 BB.

Pop Quiz
Q. What can make a September game between the lowly Nats and depressing Mets palatable — nay, even exciting?
A. Two starters, each making their respective Major League debuts, is what.

Who This Dillon Gee Character Is
Short Answer: A Crafty Righty.

The Slightly Longer Answer: Gee is described in Baseball America’s Prospect Handbook as having “fringe-average stuff” with a fastball sitting at 88-90 mph and topping at 92 mph. That was before a labrum tear last season — an injury he opted to treat with rehab and not surgery. This year, Gee has been excellent, posting about seven more strikeouts than walks per nine innings.Basically, he’s having his best pro year at the highest level in which he’s pitched — which, that’s not common.

The concern for Gee, obviously, is the same for other guys with his profile (i.e. more pitchability than stuff) — namely, how his numbers translate to the majors. Is he David Hernandez? Or is he, you know, Shaun Marcum? Tune in to find out!

Another (Smarter) Country Heard From
Rob Castellano (a) has an awesome surname and (b) writes about the minor leagues for Amazin’ Avenue.

Those are the two main reasons I asked him this question via email: “In re Dillon Gee: He has that crazy K rate (and K/BB rate), but is there any indication that his stuff is different from before last year’s labrum injury?”

That’s also why he was able to give me this totally legitimate-sounding answer:

Having watched quite a few of his starts at Buffalo in addition to speaking with people from the team at various points throughout the season, his stuff is pretty much identical to what it looked like before the injury. Pretty surprising considering that based on a couple of old articles by Will Carroll, in the majority of cases the rehab-only route for major arm injuries typically subtracts a couple ticks off the fastball at the very least and at most completely sabotages any and all command, which would be devastating for Gee as he makes his bones off his pinpoint control (see: the stellar K-rates you mentioned).

Who This Yunesky Maya Character Is
Short Answer: A Cuban Defector.

The Slightly Longer Answer: The 29-year-old Maya signed a four-year, $8 million contract with Washington this summer after defecting from Cuba last September. According to Jorge Arangure Jr. of ESPN’s La Esquina blog (Insider only), Maya threw for scouts in the Dominican last December. Arangure Jr writes that “In addition to [an 88-92 mph] fastball and two-seamer, Maya threw a slider, curveball and changeup. Additionally, Maya occasionally throws a splitter.”

Maya is another reason to like the direction in which the Nats are headed. Obviously, the injury to Stephen Straburg is problematic, but Maya and Jordan Zimmermann in the rotation — along with Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa in the infield and the looming arrival of Bryce Harper — well, at least there are some pieces about which to be optimistic.

Cincinnati (7) at Colorado (6) | 8:40pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Reds: Johnny Cueto (6)
158.1 IP, 6.48 K/9, 2.73 BB/9, .287 BABIP, 41.1% GB, 8.4% HR/FB, 4.37 xFIP

Rockies: Jhoulys Chacin (7)
107.1 IP, 9.39 K/9, 4.19 BB/9, .293 BABIP, 46.6% GB, 9.0% HR/FB, 3.74 xFIP

The Reds and the Playoffs
Cincinnati’s playoff odds, per Baseball Prospectus: ca. 98%.

The Rockies and the Playoffs
Colorado’s playoff odds, per Baseball Prospectus: ca, 15%.

Aroldis Chapman’s To-Do List
I’m not at liberty to say how or from whom I acquired it, but I have in my hands a document that will certainly be of interest to the readership. The document in question? A to-do list written in the hand of Aroldis Chapman.

I don’t know the exact date of the document’s composition, but my guess is that it’s from last week some time.

Here it is (translated from the Spanish by Jorge Luis Borges):

1. Throw a baseball at, like, 103 mph.

2. Also, throw slider that’s nigh impossible for other humans to hit.

3. Use above offerings to post swinging-strike rate close to 20%.

4. Laundry.

5. Inspire awe-induced sighs at baseball stadia across the United States.

Compelling, indeed.

Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.

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