Previous editions: Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati .

Earlier this week, lead prospect analyst Dan Farnsworth published his excellently in-depth prospect list for the Cincinnati Reds. In this companion piece, I look at that same Cincinnati farm system through the lens of my recently refined KATOH projection system. There’s way more to prospect evaluation than just the stats, so if you haven’t already, I highly recommend you read Dan’s piece in addition to this one. KATOH has no idea how hard a pitcher throws, how good a hitter’s bat speed is, or what a player’s makeup is like. So it’s liable to miss big on players whose tools don’t line up with their performances. However, when paired with more scouting-based analyses, KATOH’s objectivity can be useful in identifying talented players who might be overlooked by the industry consensus or highly-touted prospects who might be over-hyped.

Below, I’ve grouped prospects into three groups: those who are forecast for two or more wins through their first six major-league seasons, those who receive a projection between 1.0 and 2.0 WAR though their first six seasons, and then any residual players who received Future Value (FV) grades of 45 or higher from Dan. Note that I generated forecasts only for players who accrued at least 200 plate appearances or batters faced last season. Also note that the projections for players over a relatively small sample are less reliable, especially when those samples came in the low minors. Read the rest of this entry »

Previous editions: Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL.

Last week, lead prospect analyst Dan Farnsworth published his excellently in-depth prospect list for the Cincinnati Reds. In this companion piece, I look at that same Cincinnati farm system through the lens of my recently refined KATOH projection system. There’s way more to prospect evaluation than just the stats, so if you haven’t already, I highly recommend you read Dan’s piece in addition to this one. KATOH has no idea how hard a pitcher throws, how good a hitter’s bat speed is, or what a player’s makeup is like. So it’s liable to miss big on players whose tools don’t line up with their performances. However, when paired with more scouting-based analyses, KATOH’s objectivity can be useful in identifying talented players who might be overlooked by the industry consensus or highly-touted prospects who might be over-hyped.

Below, I’ve grouped prospects into three groups: those who are forecast for two or more wins through their first six major-league seasons, those who receive a projection between 1.0 and 2.0 WAR though their first six seasons, and then any residual players who received Future Value (FV) grades of 45 or higher from Dan. Note that I generated forecasts only for players who accrued at least 200 plate appearances or batters faced last season. Also note that the projections for players over a relatively small sample are less reliable, especially when those samples came in the low minors.

1. Jose Peraza, 2B (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 14.9 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 55 FV

Peraza burst onto the prospect scene in 2014, when he hit .339/.364/.441 between High-A and Double-A. His high BABIP came back to earth a bit in Triple-A last year, but was still roughly a league-average hitter. His .293/.316/. 378 showing wasn’t bad at all for a 21-year-old. Peraza is an interesting prospect due to the outlier-ness of many of his attributes. For example, both of the following sentences are accurate. One: he’s a 70-grade runner who makes tons of contact, is a strong defender up the middle, succeeded in Double-A as a 20-year-old, and held his own as a 21-year-old in Triple-A. And two: he’s a second baseman with minimal power who never walks and has been traded twice in the past seven months. There are clearly pros and cons to Peraza’s profile, but when fed into KATOH, they yield a very favorable projection. I’m always skeptical of the projections for outlier cases like Peraza, so let’s turn to the Mahalanobis comps for more clarity.

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Last week, lead prospect analyst Dan Farnsworth published his excellently in-depth prospect list for the Chicago White Sox. In this companion piece, I look at that same Chicago farm system through the lens of my recently refined KATOH projection system. There’s way more to prospect evaluation than just the stats, so if you haven’t already, I highly recommend you read Dan’s piece in addition to this one. KATOH has no idea how hard a pitcher throws, how good a hitter’s bat speed is, or what a player’s makeup is like. So it’s liable to miss big on players whose tools don’t line up with their performances. However, when paired with more scouting-based analyses, KATOH’s objectivity can be useful in identifying talented players who might be overlooked by the industry consensus or highly-touted prospects who might be over-hyped.

Below, I’ve grouped prospects into three groups: those who are forecast for two or more wins through their first six major-league seasons, those who receive a projection between 1.0 and 2.0 WAR though their first six seasons, and then any residual players who received Future Value (FV) grades of 45 or higher from Dan. Note that I generated forecasts only for players who accrued at least 200 plate appearances or batters faced last season. Also note that the projections for players over a relatively small sample are less reliable, especially when those samples came in the low minors.

1. Tim Anderson, SS (Profile)

KATOH Projection Through First Six Seasons: 6.0 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 55

At the plate, Anderson’s 2015 at Double-A strongly resembled his 2014 at High-A. He struck out in over 20% in his plate appearances, walked in less than 5% and hit for an unremarkable amount of power. While he improved his walk rate to near-respectability — from 2% to 4% — he sacrificed a chunk of power in the process. Last year, however, he complemented his relatively empty .300 average with a boatload of steals, which speaks to the 22-year-old’s athleticism. Anderson’s undeveloped bat still gives KATOH some pause, but shortstops with top-notch speed don’t need to hit much to be productive.

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Other clubs: Braves, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Reds, Red Sox, White Sox.

The Indians have an enviable number of likely big league players in their system, though only a handful of them project to be impact talents. The top three in the list have the highest ceilings, I believe, with Bradley Zimmer the pretty undisputed number-one guy. I’m pretty high on Triston McKenzie, and at one point had him in the number two spot over Frazier. Other guys about whom I’m a little more optimistic include Mark Mathias, Erik Gonzalez and Greg Allen.

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In something of a curious trade, the Rockies flipped Corey Dickerson to the Rays for Jake McGee. Those two players were the headliners of the deal, but they weren’t the only two players involved. Also changing hands were third baseman Kevin Padlo and hard-throwing righty German Marquez, who head to the Rays and Rockies, respectively. Here’s what my fancy computer math says about the minor leaguers involved.

Kevin Padlo (Profile)

The Rockies drafted Padlo in the fifth round out of high school less than two years ago, but he wasted no time putting up gaudy numbers in the low minors. Padlo graded out extremely well by an embryonic version of KATOH and, nearly a year and a half later, his enticing combination of power, speed and youth still tips the scales. He placed 37th on KATOH’s newly-minted prospect list, with a projected 5.9 WAR through his first six years in the show.

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A couple of days ago, news broke that the Yankees had traded for uber-reliever Aroldis Chapman. In exchange for Chapman’s services, the Bombers coughed up four prospects: Starting pitcher Rookie Davis, corner infielder Eric Jagielo, second baseman Tony Renda and reliever Caleb Cotham. Here’s what my fancy computer math says about this quartet.

Rookie Davis, RHP (Profile)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 2.6 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 0.7 WAR

The Yankees took Davis in the 14th round out of high school in 2011, but he soon proved to be a steal at that spot. In 2013, he dominated Short-Season A-Ball with the help of a mid-90s fastball. He continued to establish himself in 2014 by posting a sub-4.00 FIP as a starter in Low-A.

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At around 4:15 AM this past Sunday morning, I was out getting some pizza with friends, when none other than Alex Rodriguez walked through the door. Like every drunken idiot at Joe’s Pizza that night, I put forth my best effort to initiate an interaction with him, but he paid me no attention. After multiple failed attempts, I enlisted my girlfriend to approach him and ask if he’d take a photo with me on his way out. I told her to say I was with FanGraphs, hoping that would somehow help.

Through some combination of my girlfriend’s attractiveness and the FanGraphs brand, he agreed to take the photo. The end result was the following photo of me, Alex Rodriguez and Alex Rodriguez’s 80-grade pecs. In our starstruck haste, we promised I’d write an article about him. That’s one of the reasons I’m telling you this story. However, since I’m undeniably certain he won’t be checking, it’s more that I wanted an excuse to put this photo on the internet.

Those first two paragraphs explain why I’m writing about A-Rod, though it’s not as though one really needs an excuse to write about A-Rod. He’s arguably the best player many of us have ever seen, and he remains a productive one even as he embarks into his 40s.

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The 2015 Rule 5 draft has come and gone. A total of 16 players were selected in the major league portion of the event. In what follows, I take a look at what KATOH has to say about the players selected. The players are listed in the order they were selected in yesterday’s draft. Projections have been produced based both on 2015 and also 2014 minor-league stats.

Tyler Goeddel, OF (Profile)
New Team: Philadelphia
Old Team: Tampa Bay
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 2.9 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 1.5 WAR

Goedel was one of the players I profiled in my Rule 5 preview. He transitioned from third base to the outfield in 2015, and he took a step forward offensively as well. He hit a strong .279/.350/.443 in Double-A and also kicked in 28 steals. Goeddel’s had some trouble making contact in the past, but his combination of power and speed is intriguing. Hitters who both possess that skill set and have already succeeded in Double-A don’t grow on trees. He may not be quite ready for the show going by the numbers, but is close enough that he probably won’t embarrass himself. And at 23, there’s still room for him to improve. The Phillies won’t be winning many games in 2016, so Goeddel is exactly the type of player on whom they should by taking fliers. Maybe they’ll catch lightning in a bottle like they did with last year’s Rule 5 pick, Odubel Herrera.

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The Atlanta Braves continued dealing from their Major League roster this week, sending Shelby Miller and relief prospect Gabe Speier to the Arizona Diamondbacks for oufielder Ender Inciarte, recent No.1 overall pick Dansby Swanson and right-handed starter prospect Aaron Blair. Miller and Inciarte are relatively established big league assets. With respect to Speier, as a low-level lefty relief prospect, he was likely not a deal-breaker in trade negotiations. Let’s take a closer look at Swanson and Blair to see what exactly the Braves added to fortify their minor league system.

Swanson was drafted first overall in June, and hasn’t really done anything since to lessen his value as a high-potential shortstop. Thanks to the Trea Turner situation last year, teams are now allowed to trade draft picks after the conclusion of the World Series in the same season. In addition to being the first amateur player drafted in 2015, I recently ranked him as the top prospect in the Diamondbacks system.

Swanson offers tons of upside on both sides of the game. Defensively he played second base at Vanderbilt until switching back to his high school position at short. To me, there is no question he can stick at shortstop long term. He is an elite defender with plenty of range and arm to handle it, buoyed by strong footwork and quick changes in direction. This video from the Fangraphs YouTube page shows some of his skills in warm ups, as well as batting practice and game swings from before the draft:

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Earlier today, I published a post profiling a few of the hitters whom KATOH likes and who will be available in this week’s Rule 5 draft. Below, I repeat that exercise for pitchers.

As I did earlier, I will once again note that KATOH’s output isn’t perfectly aligned with what makes for a good Rule 5 pick. An interesting prospect might not be worth taking in the Rule 5 if he’s very far away from the big leagues. Similarly, there are there are older guys who might be able to help a big league team, but don’t grade out well according to my prospect model due to their age. In other words, this compilation of names is skewed more towards guys on the young end of the spectrum, and not necessarily towards guys who are most likely to contribute in 2016.

Identifying eligible Rule 5 players isn’t completely straightforward, so I can’t promise I didn’t miss a name or two along the way. But at the very least, I can assure you this piece contains most of KATOH’s favorite pitchers who will be available on Thursday. Immediately below, you’ll find the names of seven pitchers who are relatively close to being big league ready. Below that, you’ll find three more who are a bit further away. For each player, I’ve included his projection through age 28 based both on his 2015 stats and also 2014 stats.

*****

Seven Big League Ready(ish) Pitchers

Miguel Sulbaran, RHP, New York AL (Profile)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 2.3 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 1.2 WAR

Sulbaran pitched mostly at the Double-A level last year, where he turned in a solid 3.62 FIP. Sulbaran doesn’t strike a ton of guys out, but he’s allowed very few homers in the minors. The end result was a perfectly acceptable performance as a 21-year-old in Double-A. He’s also a lefty, which might appeal to teams looking to add one of those to their bullpen.

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