Okay, they didn’t actually get him for nothing. To acquire the Phillies center fielder (who will almost certainly play left in LA), the Dodgers gave up 25-year-old reliever Josh Lindblom and enigmatic right-handed pitching prospect Ethan Martin. Reports are that the Dodgers felt comfortable moving Lindblom after acquiring Brandon League from the Mariners last night, but in reality, they should have always been comfortable trading Josh Lindblom for value, because Josh Lindblom is simply not a particularly valuable player.

Over the last two years, Lindblom has thrown 77 innings in the big leagues and posted a 2.91 ERA, so on the surface, he appears to be a good young relief pitcher. In reality, though, there are warning signs everywhere.

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Dodgers shortstops in 2012: .229/.283/.317, .272 wOBA, 70 wRC+. 20th in baseball. Dodgers third basemen in 2012: .248/.321/.355, .296 wOBA, 85 wRC+. 21st in baseball.

The reasons the Dodgers desired Hanley Ramirez are readily apparent. Even if Ramirez is no longer the shortstop force that defined his early career as a Florida Marlin, even if Ramirez is just the player he’s been the last two seasons, the Dodgers have improved greatly on the left side of the infield.

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As the key piece received by Miami in the Hanley Ramirez trade, Nathan Eovaldi ranks as one of the better pitching prospects I’ve scouted during the past couple of seasons. And while his fastball/slider combination has not translated into numbers which stand out from a statistical standpoint, the core components are there for the former Dodgers product to emerge as a quality mid-rotation starter at the big league level. Read the rest of this entry »

All-Star Week was marred by the surprising news that Jay Gibbons retired. It was surprising in the sense that many probably did not realize that Gibbons was still “in baseball.” It has been a semi-interesting wild ride for the 35-year-old. Gibbons never went to the playoffs. While he made contact and had nice power, his low on-base percentage and poor defense at non-premium positions limited his usefulness. He dropped off of the map for a while after getting named in the Mitchell Report. Nonetheless, for some reason Jay Gibbons has always been on the periphery of my attention.

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The All-Star Game is over and it’s time to turn our attention to the second half of the season. All of the teams still in contention face questions as games get underway on Friday. We will take a look at those questions in two posts. Today, we’ll discuss what to look for in the National League when play resumes. On Thursday, we’ll address the American League.

The NL East is a four-team race. The Nationals are the leader in the clubhouse at the break, with a four-game lead over the Braves (five in the loss column) and a four-and-a-half-game lead over the Mets (six in the loss column). The Marlins are nine back with the Phillies in last place fourteen games behind the Nats. For the Marlins, that is a lot of ground to make up, but the NL East teams will play a lot of games against each other just after the All-Star Break. That could solidify the Nationals’ lead or tighten the race even further.

The Braves and Mets are essentially tied with the Giants and the Cardinals for the two wild card spots, just behind the Reds, who trail the Pirates by a game in the Central. The Diamondbacks, Marlins and Brewers sit three-and-a-half, four-and-a-half, and five-and-a-half back, respectively.

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Fare thee well, father, mother. I’m off
to de-luck the f*** out of this s***.

With this All-Star break forcing to watch so little baseball, we now have a moment to drink up the frothy milkshake of statistics from the first half. So, you and I, we shall dissect the stats and find out who has been lucky, unlucky and a little of both.

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The Dodgers dipped into the international market for the first time under new ownership Thursday morning, reportedly agreeing to a seven-year, $42 million deal with Cuban outfielder Yasiel Puig. The 21-year-old Puig broke out in the Cuban Serie Nacional (the nation’s top league) during the 2009-10 season, hitting .330/.430/.581 with 17 home runs in 327 at-bats.

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Late last night, word came down that the Dodgers had come to terms with Andre Ethier on a five year contract extension that will keep him out of the free agent pool this winter. The price for keeping him away from the market? $85 million guaranteed with a vesting sixth year option that could push it to $100 million total. There’s no two ways around it – this contract means that the Dodgers will be paying Ethier at a rate that he probably won’t be able to justify for very long.

If we assume that we’re going to see price inflation of 5% per win over the next few years, the Dodgers essentially just paid Ethier for something close to +15 wins from 2013 to 2017, or pretty close to exactly what he’s been worth in previous five year increments in his career.

2006-2010: +13 WAR
2007-2011: +13 WAR
2008-2012: +14 WAR (and counting – likely will end the year with +15 or +16)

There’s just one problem, of course – those five year windows covered Ethier’s 24-28, 25-29, and 26-30 timeframes, but this contract buys his age 31-35 seasons. If you have a guy who is worth about +15 WAR during his prime five years, he’s almost certainly not going to be worth +15 WAR during the first five years after he turns 30. The Dodgers essentially paid for in-his-prime Ethier and will be happy with the contract until age begins to catch up with him. Whether that happens in 2014 or 2016 remains to be seen, but it’s pretty likely that this contract is going to end with the Dodgers giving a significant amount of cash to a guy who isn’t playing well enough to justify the cost.

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Matt Kemp’s frustration was apparent as he rounded second base in the first inning of last night’s game against the Milwaukee Brewers. Fears of the worst were confirmed as Kemp destroyed a bat in frustration: the Dodgers’ star expects to return to the disabled list, and he could miss more than two weeks this time around.

The Dodgers are without question a star driven team, with players like Kemp, Clayton Kershaw and Andre Ethier holding up an otherwise unimpressive roster. Yesterday’s lineup following Kemp’s departure read like something one would expect at an Albuquerque Isotopes contest. With Kemp out for multiple weeks, the Dodgers will turn to the ‘Topes best, Alex Castellanos. The 25-year-old will replace Kemp on the roster according to Baseball Prospectus’s Kevin Goldstein.

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When pressed to name the top offensive catchers in the league, names such as Mike Napoli, Miguel Montero, Brian McCann, Yadier Molina, Carlos Santana, and Alex Avila immediately come to mind. That is only natural, as all six of those players were in the top ten amongst catchers for wOBA last season (min. 100 PA). In addition, young, up-and-coming catchers, such as Matt Wieters and Buster Posey, also likely make the list for many people.

This season, however, none of those catchers listed above lead the league in production at the plate. Surprising names have risen to the top of the rankings through the first month and a half of the season. In fact, none of the top four catchers in wOBA this season (min. 100 PA) had a wOBA above .350 in 2011.
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