Thanks to Josh Frank for the photoshop.

Earlier this morning, news broke that the Tampa Bay Rays had signed top pitching prospect Matt Moore to a rather unbelievable contract: 5 years, $14 million guaranteed with three team options that could bring the total value up to $40 million. Yes, you’re reading that right; the Rays just signed one of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball to a deal that could keep him in Tampa Bay (at a very affordable price, mind you) until he’s 30 years old.

Say it with me now: “Matt Moore, you just got Friedman’d.”

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Depending on whom you are reading at the moment, the Tampa Bay Rays are making a serious run at Josh Willingham. Still, despite being a reported finalist, there is concern that the team might not be able to outbid the other teams vying for his services. Recent changes to the collective bargaining agreement removed the first-round bounty on Willingham and several other free agents — which is good news for the Rays — but likely expands his market to include deeper-pocketed teams like the Boston Red Sox. If Tampa Bay can somehow outlast the competition it could be a perfect pairing of talent and need.

And all this couldn’t have happened at a better time for the “Hammer.” Willingham certainly helped himself with a powerful contract year in Oakland: he hit a career-best 29 home runs and belted 26 doubles in 563 plate appearances. His .232 ISO was nearly 20 points higher than his career average, whih landed him between Josh Hamilton (.238) and Robinson Cano (.231) on the American League leaderboard.

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Jim Bowden tweeted over the weekend that six teams were pursuing reliever Luis Ayala. The list of suitors included progressive teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, Rays and Blue Jays. Since these teams typically spend money wisely, their interest in a retread reliever like Ayala is pretty puzzling.

Yes, Ayala had a decent 2011 season with the Yankees, but he isn’t the type of player all these teams should pursue. He isn’t a closer or a traditional setup man. Aside from last season, when he had a 3.40 FIP against lefties and a 4.99 mark against righties, he isn’t very effective against opposite-handed hitters. He has never really lit the league ablaze against same-handed opponents either.

Throughout his career, Ayala has posted average strikeout and walk rates, a decent groundball rate, and home run rates — per nine innings and relative to flyballs allowed — right in line with the league. He was also previously reputed as a rubber-arm reliever, though injuries have taken their toll on his durability in recent years.

Ayala does not really stand out as a reliever worth a guaranteed major league deal that may start a bidding war between teams serious about contending.

The only way this amped up pursuit of his services makes sense is if teams are convinced that he is actually the reliever that posted a 2.09 ERA in 56 innings with the Yankees. That would be a foolish belief.

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In a weekend that was filled with football, college basketball, and leftover turkey, the Tampa Bay Rays and Seattle Mariners hooked up for a trade that pulled us back into the clutches of the simmering Hot Stove – the deal saw Tampa trade 28-year-old catcher John Jaso to Seattle for 27-year-old right-handed reliever Josh Lueke and a player to be named later (or cash considerations).

Jaso is a very solid, buy-low acquisition for the Mariners. He endeared himself to the sabermetric community by hitting .263/.372/.378 as a rookie in 2010, but followed that up by hitting only .224/.298/.354 this past season. That .288 wOBA, however, was largely due to a dip in BABIP to .244, which should see some natural correction next year.

The left-handed hitting catcher possesses a keen eye for balls and strikes at the plate and is extremely selective when swinging. He has walked more than he has struck out over his career, while swinging at a mere 34.9% of the pitches he sees over his 687 plate appearances in the big leagues. Only Bobby Abreu, Brett Gardner, Joe Mauer, and Jamey Carroll take the bat off their shoulder less often than Jaso.

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Obviously it is the horse talking.

News broke Monday night that the Texas Rangers signed once-great, maybe even possibly still-great, reliever Joe Nathan to a 2-year contract for $7M a year, plus a $9M option.

FUN FACT: Over the last two years, Joe Nathan and I have the exact same WAR — we both have been worth precisely 0.0 wins! Which makes us ask: Why did the Rangers choose Nathan?

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Jeremy Hellickson is the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year. Despite the fact that Hellickson finished with just 1.4 WAR — good for eighth among AL rookie pitchers — he managed to beat out some other very qualified candidates for the award. The BBWAA has come under fire for some of their selections in the past, and Hellickson’s selection might spark the same debate once again. That said, Hellickson did have a fine season, and there were obvious reasons to select him as the most valuable rookie in the league. Whether or not you agree with the methodology, this is how Hellickson managed to take home the award.
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On Tuesday, we took a quick look at the competitive balance in the MLB, and I made the claim that baseball may have more parity than most leagues, but it also has want of greater balance. During the course of the piece, I made this statement:

The NFL has decided it wants payroll to have essentially no impact on winning, so teams basically trot out the same amount of money every Sunday and hope their money was better-spent. Is that what the MLB wants?

Aft’wards, Paul Swydan pointed out to me that indeed NFL salaries are not flat. Despite their hard cap, their hefty revenue sharing, and their tight spandex pants, the NFL still exhibits nearly a $77M gap between the biggest and lowest payroll — impressive, but still nothing compared to the MLB:

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Yesterday afternoon, Jayson Stark considered the question, “Is the MLB’s competitive balance a joke?” His answer was a rather blunt no:

MLB’s competitive balance is NOT a joke.

It beats the NFL.

It beats the league formerly known as the NBA.

And … I can prove it.

Stark’s method of proving it — plucking facts from the recent playoff series and comparing them generally to the NFL and other major leagues — was less than rigorous. In general, I agreed with his assertion: Parity in the MLB exists naturally far more than any other sports league.

HOWEVER, if my foot has less gangrene than your foot, does that mean I don’t need a doctor? No. I probably still need a doctor, and I probably need to stop playing barefoot tag on Rusty Nails Pier.

Relative success does not necessitate absolute success. And frankly, I feel the “parity” in the MLB indeed has a gangrene of sorts, a disease that is causing only specific segments of the league to rot while the rest hum along uncaring.

Of course, it is one thing to suspect something and demand more research, but it is another to pull the sabermetrician stocking over your head and answer that suspicion with a Falcon Punch of data.

Let’s do just that.
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It’s no secret that the Tampa Bay Rays need to trade a starting pitcher this offseason. They have seven starting pitchers that could potentially fit in their 2012 rotation: David Price, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, Alex Cobb, and top prospect Matt Moore. Trading one of these players would allow the Rays to fill in other holes on their roster — first base and catcher are concerns — while freeing up room for Matt Moore to slide in. The only question is, who do the Rays trade away?

The Rays could approach things from two directions. They could trade away one of the trio of Niemann, Davis, or Cobb, as those three are most expendable and the one-two-three punch of Price, Shields, and Moore would be quite sexy. Or the Rays could do what most people assume they will do: trade away James Shields. Shields is one of the most valuable trade chips in baseball, so he would return a large package while also freeing up $7 million in payroll space.

All these rumors glance over two pitchers: Jeremy Hellickson and David Price. Helly isn’t likely to be moved due to his high ceiling and team-controlled salary, but David Price presents an interesting conundrum. If the Rays are considering trading Shields, Price should also be on the market…and the Rays might be better off trading him.

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Yesterday, Cubs President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein announced the Chicago Cubs and manager Mike Quade have parted ways. Kudos to Theo Epstein for not doing what we all expected him to: Fire Quade immediately.

It appears Epstein — like he has approached most everything in his young Cubs reign — decided to withhold judgement until he had fully investigated the matter himself. Like Joe Maddon is wont to say, “Tell me what you think, not what you heard.”

Quade’s managerial time with the Cubs was both short and possibly undeserved. Taking the helm when Lou Piniella suddenly retired in 2010, Quade inherited a team that was predisposed towards failure. But, despite that, the team went 24-13 to close out the season. That was enough proof for Jim Hendry to vault Quade not only into the manager discussion, but the manager’s chair:

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